Red C Poll

oscarBravo · 19-02-2015 08:40PM

Rightwing wrote: »

That's not a good comparison.

The only difference is whether or not the donor is an elected representative. Apparently it's OK to gift tens of thousands of euro to a political party if you happen to have been elected on behalf of that party.

I'd like to see where that exemption is written down in the SIPO rules.

Nodin · 19-02-2015 09:07PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

...and donate the rest to the party. I'm still not clear on how such a large donation from an individual to a political party is allowed under SIPO rules.

Evidently SIPO are though.

Nodin · 19-02-2015 09:08PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

Set aside for the constituency, or set aside for the SF constituency organisation? Interesting. I wonder if a random third party decided to give (say) a FF constituency organisation a hundred grand, would SIPO feel the same way about it?

A random third party is somehow equivalent to an elected party member?

Permabear · 19-02-2015 10:26PM

This post has been deleted.

listermint · 21-02-2015 07:43PM

The Red C poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post puts Labour down two points to 7% while Fianna Fáil drops one point to 18%.
Fine Gael comes out unchanged on 24% – a three point lead over Sinn Féin.
However, it also found that 19% of those who voted Fine Gael are now planning to vote for Sinn Féin – which has gone up one point to 21%.
Independents and others are up two to 30% – the Greens are up one to 3% while Lucinda Creighton’s new party on is on 1%.
The poll also looks at who support Sinn Féin and the Independents. The majority of new voters for both came from past Fine Gael voters.

http://www.thejournal.ie/opinion-poll-politics-sunday-business-post-1952546-Feb2015/

Labour hurting as predicted, this whole nonsense with Joan Burton hurt the party badly. To call it an own goal would be an understatement.

conorh91 · 21-02-2015 07:50PM

Would I be correct in saying that Sinn Fein's support has been the most erratic?

Their suppport seems to swing fairly rashly based on topical issues, suggesting that their support base is unreliable (leaving aside the fact that their 'supporters' for the purposes of surveys probably don't really vote...)

Fr Tod Umptious · 21-02-2015 09:44PM

conorh91 wrote: »

Would I be correct in saying that Sinn Fein's support has been the most erratic?

Their suppport seems to swing fairly rashly based on topical issues, suggesting that their support base is unreliable (leaving aside the fact that their 'supporters' for the purposes of surveys probably don't really vote...)

Absolutely.
SF support is very "soft"
This has been borne out in numerous elections where they get a lot less % of the vote than opinion polls give them in the lead up.

I can't see it being any different this time round.

Ren2k7 · 21-02-2015 10:13PM

conorh91 wrote: »

Would I be correct in saying that Sinn Fein's support has been the most erratic?

Their suppport seems to swing fairly rashly based on topical issues, suggesting that their support base is unreliable (leaving aside the fact that their 'supporters' for the purposes of surveys probably don't really vote...)

Not really. They've largely remained in the low to mid 20's for most of 2014, so this latest poll isn't that surprising.

Ren2k7 · 21-02-2015 10:16PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Absolutely.
SF support is very "soft"
This has been borne out in numerous elections where they get a lot less % of the vote than opinion polls give them in the lead up.

I can't see it being any different this time round.

The problem for SF is that in many constituencies they are weak to no existent on the ground. Local constituency offices and volunteers are the bedrock of any party, which SF doesn't have in many parts of the country. It has no problem converting poll numbers into votes in the border areas and Dublin where it is strong.

BoJack Horseman · 21-02-2015 10:20PM

Its quite remarkable how the left vote is breaking almost entirely for SF.

Labour remains in downward obscurity.
PBP/SP & the others barely register despite their unprecedented exposure.

Baggy Trousers · 21-02-2015 10:23PM

Godge wrote: »

Enda Kenny 35%
Joan Burton 33%
Micheal Martin 31%
Gerry Adams 27%

Bloody hell, we are certainly spoiled in terms of the calibre of our political leaders! :rolleyes::eek:

None of them inspire any confidence...where did it all go wrong?

Fr Tod Umptious · 21-02-2015 10:35PM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

The problem for SF is that in many constituencies they are weak to no existent on the ground. Local constituency offices and volunteers are the bedrock of any party, which SF doesn't have in many parts of the country. It has no problem converting poll numbers into votes in the border areas and Dublin where it is strong.

But even in those areas they still come in a lot lower on election day than polls suggest.

I'd find evidence in tje local election and recent by election results to back tje above statement up next time I'm on a PC rather than a phone.

Ren2k7 · 21-02-2015 10:50PM

conorh91 wrote: »

Would I be correct in saying that Sinn Fein's support has been the most erratic?

Their suppport seems to swing fairly rashly based on topical issues, suggesting that their support base is unreliable (leaving aside the fact that their 'supporters' for the purposes of surveys probably don't really vote...)

Read the article:

However, it also found that 19% of those who voted Fine Gael are now planning to vote for Sinn Féin – which has gone up one point to 21%.

The poll also looks at who support Sinn Féin and the Independents. The majority of new voters for both came from past Fine Gael voters.

SF is sweeping up support from the "traditional" three parties of FF, FG and Lab. The far left vote would appear to be coalescing around the Socialists, sorry the "Anti Austerity Alliance". It's quite weird that Red C still refuses to publish results for the SP, lumping them in with the Indos, even though it gives separate results for Creightons still as yet unnamed band of FG dissidents.

the groutch · 21-02-2015 11:03PM

the leader popularity ratings again show that Adams needs to step down as leader before the next election, if not sooner.

Ren2k7 · 21-02-2015 11:19PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But even in those areas they still come in a lot lower on election day than polls suggest.

I'd find evidence in tje local election and recent by election results to back tje above statement up next time I'm on a PC rather than a phone.

SF received 9.9% of the national FPV in 2011, nearly the same as the final RedC poll before the election with them on 10%.

The following SF TD's received more than 10% in first preferences:

Donegal South-West
Pearse Doherty - 33%

Donegal North-East
Pádraig Mac Lochlainn - 24.5%

Louth
Gerry Adams - 21.7%

Dublin North-West
Dessie Ellis - 21.7%

Kerry North-West Limerick
Martin Ferris - 20.3%

Meath West
Peadar Tóibín - 17.4%

Dublin South-West
Seán Crowe - 17.2%

Cavan-Monaghan
Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin -16%

Cork North-Central
Jonathan O'Brien - 15.2%

Dublin South-Central
Aengus Ó Snodaigh - 13.4%

Sligo-North Leitrim
Michael Colreavy - 13.3%

Dublin Central
Mary Lou McDonald - 13.1%

Cork East
Sandra McLellan - 11.1%

Laois-Offaly
Brian Stanley - 10.8%

That's EVERY elected member of the SF parliamentary party with five members in the 20's, despite the party only polling, in both the GE and last RedC poll at 10%.

Also in last year's Dublin South-West by-election Cathal King got over 30% of the FPV. In the local elections the party is the largest in Dublin City, South Dublin, Monaghan and Louth, all counties with very strong SF cumainn.

Like I said it's a lack of adequate party machinery and volunteers on the ground in these constituencies which is hindering SF.

conorh91 · 21-02-2015 11:28PM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

They've largely remained in the low to mid 20's for most of 2014, so this latest poll isn't that surprising.

One poll currently has them on 26%, another on 21%.

But why is it so erratic? Here are their poll results for 2014, across the various agencies (picture from Political Reform Ireland blog)

In the latter half of the year, in particular, they were all over the place, as voters didn't know who to turn to in two separate, ongoing sagas over Irish Water and Mairia Cahill.

Moreover, Gerry Adams has gone from being the most popular leader to the least popular.

The support base (to the extent that it even votes) is erratic and unreliable.

SF is sweeping up support from the "traditional" three parties of FF, FG and Lab.

You're drawing that inference from the fact that its new voters have come from Fine Gael? The party is up 1% on the last poll! So you're counting the new voters from a 1% increase, of which maybe as low a figure as 0.25% came from FG, which could amount to 25 telephone respondents!

Are you working for SF or something?

The above does nothing to disprove my suspicion that many SF 'supporters' identified in phone surveys don't really vote.

Ren2k7 · 21-02-2015 11:36PM

conorh91 wrote: »

One poll currently has them on 26%, another on 21%.

But why is it so erratic? Here are their poll results for 2014, across the various agencies (picture from Political Reform Ireland blog)

In the latter half of the year, in particular, they were all over the place, as voters didn't know who to turn to in two separate, ongoing sagas over Irish Water and Mairia Cahill.

Moreover, Gerry Adams has gone from being the most popular leader to the least popular.

The support base (to the extent that it even votes) is erratic and unreliable.

You're drawing that inference from the fact that its new voters have come from Fine Gael? The party is up 1% on the last poll! So your counting the new voters from a 1% increase, of which maybe as low a figure as 0.25% came from FG, which could amount to 25 telephone respondents!

Are you working for SF or something?

The above does nothing to disprove my suspicion that many SF 'supporters' identified in phone surveys don't really vote.

It's not me who said that SF are drawing support from FG, it was Red C. And no, I'm not working for SF, I'm just presenting the facts.

AS for "erratic" poll jumps they're no different to the government parties changes where FG have been bouncing from 28% in Sept 2014 (RedC: 14 Sept, 2014 http://www.redcresearch.ie/news/early-signals-that-recovering-economy-could-benefit-government-parties) to 19% in the space of three months (Ipsos MRBI: 4 Dec, 2014 http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll).

So, um, yeah, you're kind of wrong on this one. Seems the Blueshirt support base is erratic and unreliable.

conorh91 · 21-02-2015 11:50PM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

It's not me who said that SF are drawing support from FG, it was Red C.

I know, but their figures are open to criticism.

For example, they say that a fifth of people who voted FG in 2011 will now vote SF.

That would mean that one out of every three SF supporters are migrating from FG.

It would indicate in turn that almost all of the people switching from FG are going to SF. That seems implausible.

To me, that seems like telephone respondents are telling porkies. I suspect that a lot of the SF supporters in the survey don't usually vote, and when asked who they voted for in the last election, answered FG.

I just find it hard to believe that SF is genuinely competing with FG for the same voters.

Ren2k7 · 22-02-2015 12:05AM

conorh91 wrote: »

I know, but their figures are open to criticism.

For example, they say that a fifth of people who voted FG in 2011 will now vote SF.

That would mean that one out of every three SF supporters are migrating from FG.

It would indicate in turn that almost all of the people switching from FG are going to SF. That seems implausible.

To me, that seems like telephone respondents are telling porkies. I suspect that a lot of the SF supporters in the survey don't usually vote, and when asked who they voted for in the last election, answered FG.

I just find it hard to believe that SF is genuinely competing with FG for the same voters.

You can believe what you like, but RedC is regarded as the most reputable polling company in Ireland, so anything they say tends to make people sit up and take notice.

conorh91 · 22-02-2015 12:13AM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

You can believe what you like, but RedC is regarded as the most reputable polling company in Ireland

I don't doubt Red C is reporting honestly. I doubt the truth of what some people are telling Red C, and I doubt the intention of the same people to vote in an election.

Baggy Trousers · 22-02-2015 12:21AM

conorh91 wrote: »

I don't doubt Red C is reporting honestly. I doubt the truth of what some people are telling Red C, and I doubt the intention of the same people to vote in an election.

I think you have a problem with trust Conor! Or is it Thomas?

I'll tell you one thing. I have never voted FF or SF #1. I voted for FG/Lab last time out but SF will be higher up my preference list than FG/Lab next time out (and I do not like Gerry Adams, the liar, one bit)!
.

conorh91 · 22-02-2015 12:27AM

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I think you have a problem with trust Conor! Or is it Thomas?

I don't get it. Who's Thomas?

I'll tell you one thing. I have never voted FF or SF #1. I voted for FG/Lab last time out but SF will be higher up my preference list than FG/Lab next time out!

We're talking about surveys, not personal anecdotes, with respect. You didn't vote SF number 1, and you still don't plan to give them that vote. Fascinating as that is, I again don't see your point.

Baggy Trousers · 22-02-2015 12:31AM

conorh91 wrote: »

I don't get it. Who's Thomas?

We're talking about surveys, not personal anecdotes, with respect. You didn't vote SF number 1, and you still don't plan to give them that vote. Fascinating as that is, I again don't see your point.

Doubting Thomas

I will wait to see all the parties, candidates and policies before I decide who gets #1.

My point was - you said SF could not be taking votes from FG - well FG have lost my #1 vote whereas SF have a fighting chance.
My relations would be strong FG supports too but I can see their disappointment too.

conorh91 · 22-02-2015 12:40AM

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

My point was - you said SF could not be taking votes from FG - well FG have lost my #1 vote whereas SF have a fighting chance.
My relations would be strong FG supports too but I can see their disappointment too.

The disillusion with FG is undoubted and is borne out by a moderate diminution in FG support.

However it seems far more likely that the support for FG from the last general election will migrate to centre or centre-right independents, or even migrate back to FF.

It seems fanciful to imply, as the Red C results imply, that the majority of (if not all) FG deserters have gone to SF. It suggests that the telephone respondents are being less than honest.

Baggy Trousers · 22-02-2015 01:05AM

conorh91 wrote: »

The disillusion with FG is undoubted and is borne out by a moderate diminution in FG support.

However it seems far more likely that the support for FG from the last general election will migrate to centre or centre-right independents, or even migrate back to FF.

It seems fanciful to imply, as the Red C results imply, that the majority of (if not all) FG deserters have gone to SF. It suggests that the telephone respondents are being less than honest.

I think if SF ditch Adams, all bets are off and they could break through their ceiling and rob votes from all sides. Mary Lou is a bigger draw in the ROI.

At the same time, if FG can ditch Enda, I think they could recover lost ground. Even stubborn FG supports cringe when he appears.

Don't underestimate the average voter - they have tried FF, FG, Labour and Greens and all were a shocking disappointment. The only main party not tried is SF. I have to admit that the Independents are doing an excellent job for the most part.

conorh91 · 22-02-2015 01:16AM

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I think if SF ditch Adams, all bets are off and they could break through their ceiling and rob votes from all sides. Mary Lou is a bigger draw in the ROI.

At the same time, if FG can ditch Enda, I think they could recover lost ground. Even stubborn FG supports cringe when he appears.

I agree with both of these statements, the point is that SF and FG are not targeting one another's natural support base.

To win dominance in 2016, both SF and FG must target the Labour and the Fianna Fail support base, and a substantial base of disaffected voters who belong to nobody.

Presently, Fine Gael already have the dominant position, being both ahead in the opinion polls and because of the incumbent effect.

But ultimately, it's all still in play between SF and FG. Both parties are competing for the same votes, but they are not competing between one another's natural base at the outset. That's the distinction I am making and that, I submit, is where the Red C results are inaccurate. Voters have a polarised choice between FG and SF; but the traditional FG and SF voters are generally staying put.

alaimacerc · 22-02-2015 01:25AM

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Doubting Thomas

TBF even I got that one... and I'm in the "fundamentalist atheist" bracket, according to some...

My point was - you said SF could not be taking votes from FG - well FG have lost my #1 vote whereas SF have a fighting chance.
My relations would be strong FG supports too but I can see their disappointment too.

I can see where people would be pretty skeptical. SF and FG are pretty far apart on economics, they're utterly opposed to each other on National Question mood music -- though on actual policy, there's no meaningful distinction to speak of these days. The demographics of their "core" support would be pretty sharply different, too.

OTOH, people's voting intentions aren't necessarily as neat and tidy as we might like to think. People can change their minds. People can get angry. People can be pretty darn illogical, come to that. Look at the people switching from LibDem straight to Ukip in the UK, for example. Not exactly natural bedfellows in policy terms, right?

Ren2k7 · 22-02-2015 01:40AM

It should be pointed out that a lot of people voted for FG in 2011 not so much on policies but rather as an anyone but FF tactic. FG enjoyed a huge surge in support from right across the political spectrum simply because the people wanted an alternative to 14 years of FF misrule. Now many of those same people find FG distrustful and are looking for a new alternative. For most that alternative is SF, with some others migrating over to SP/AAA and indos.

Does anyone here really think most people read election literature that falls through their letterboxes and studies the different parties manifestos? Of course not. For many years it was a case of if FF were perceived as governing badly then FG and Lab got in. If it was perceived they were running the country in a poor manner then the people switched back to FF. That's how it was for decades. But now with FF still regarded as toxic for most people, and FG regarded with disdain for many other non traditional parties are finally getting a look in.

The Irish electorate don't elect governments based on policy, they base it on getting rid of the present shower of incompetents. And if a hypothetical SF government were elected in 2016 earns the ire of the people they too will be chucked out on their arses five year after.

FWIW I voted FG and Lab in 2011. This time I'm unsure but I'm leaning towards SF. For me I'll base it on the policies of the different parties. (Unlike most people I'll actually read their manifestos

)

Dyr · 22-02-2015 01:55AM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

FG will be the largest party after the next election and by some margin....Labour ~7-8% will get about 15 seats so combined they'll be 60 seats or so..

SF/FF will only have 45-50 seats combined...

Labour actually getting 7-8%, doubt it. The margin of error for a low percentage like that is significant. I think Labour are in the PD/democratic left zone now, possible they will lose out on leaders allowance, trade union political funding etc after the next election.

Expect Sinn Fein to perform above their usual percentage handicap by hoovering up a lot of first preference votes that previously went to labour.

Fianna Fail may stage a minor recovery also, memories are short and people really dislike this government.

alaimacerc · 22-02-2015 02:08AM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

The Irish electorate don't elect governments based on policy, they base it on getting rid of the present shower of incompetents.

They do indeed, that's bang on. And the electorate generally looks to elect another bunch of incompetents on the basis that'll it'll promise to do the same thing, only magically this time it'll work out flawlessly. Hence the current "what we need is yet another redundant centre-right party or three" nonsense. Shine up same some conservative slogans, move the order of the words around a little, put some new -- but not too new! -- faces on them, and it'll be grand. Votáil Nua Progressive Fine Fail Ctrl-Alt-Delete Independent! Same policies, now with added "not voting for the same shower as last time" salve for the conscience!

(Unlike most people I'll actually read their manifestos )

We'll be needing a few extra tallymen on hand to keep an eye on this sort of bolshie intellectualism!

Red C Poll

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