Cheltenham Festival 2015

Shemale · 16-02-2015 10:23AM

Cant believe someone thinks Sprinter Sacre should be double the price of Champagne Fever.

Really cant have any of the 2 mile form from last year, it wasnt good at all.

SS and Dodging Bullets will beat CF, Mr Mole has improved no end and will probably finish ahead of him, Uxizandre has been poor last twice but a return to form and I fancy him too. For me CF will do well to be 4th.

Backstreet Moyes · 16-02-2015 10:45AM

Champagne Fever is a horse that can throw in a few stinkers alright but he comes alive at Cheltenham. With so many question marks over the field he really should have a great chance of winning the QM in what is a poor renewal.

Backstreet Moyes · 16-02-2015 10:47AM

Shemale wrote: »

A good few firms are bog when they go nrnb so its not that bad. Backed him at 5 and was delighted to see it settled at 13/2.

If he travels and jumps like that he will go close in either race.

Which firms offer BOG on Ante Post the first i have ever heard of it. You are hard pushed to get BOG two days before a meeting i would be shocked if you get it Ante Post.

kfallon · 16-02-2015 11:04AM

Anyone know what the Paddy Power 22 days to go 'Special' is for today?

Gringo180 · 16-02-2015 11:06AM

Champagne Fever should be sent back over hurdles imo. Not good enough over the bigger obstacles, will always find a 1 or 2 too good for him in the Championship races. Beaten by a 135 rated animal over C+D in the Arkle not a chance this horse is winning a Champion Chase.

ste2010 · 16-02-2015 11:19AM

Gringo180 wrote: »

Champagne Fever should be sent back over hurdles imo. Not good enough over the bigger obstacles, will always find a 1 or 2 too good for him in the Championship races. Beaten by a 135 rated animal over C+D in the Arkle not a chance this horse is winning a Champion Chase.

So was dodging bullets. But he is 3rd fav for the champion chase. Who's your idea of a champion chase winner?

Gringo180 · 16-02-2015 11:33AM

ste2010 wrote: »

So was dodging bullets. But he is 3rd fav for the champion chase. Who's your idea of a champion chase winner?

Dodging Bullets has improved no end this year. CF is classy animal but I cant for the life of me see him winning a championship race over fences. I'll be on board Sprinter Sacre myself, his run lto was very promising. Ill have a small each way bet on Somersby who is over priced at 33/1.

ste2010 · 16-02-2015 11:43AM

Somersby is definitely over priced. If the issues with sprinter sacre and sire de grugy was last season he would have had a big race with a different race.

I also think wishful thinking is over priced in the ryanair. Could be a nice place bet

klairondavis · 16-02-2015 11:58AM

One factor that should give Champagne Fever fans confidence is that he is going to Cheltenham on the back of a really positive run and it's the first time you could say that since his bumper days. Last year he didn't run between Christmas (where he finished tamely behind Defy Logic) and March and was possibly too fresh as a result. He scrambled home from Bright New Dawn in the Deloitte the year before, a performance that didn't have many enthused about his Supreme Novices prospects.

Given the question marks over most of the Champion Chase field he seems well up to taking his chance at least. A lot of people are talking up Dodging Bullets as a horse with fairly solid credentials citing his improvement this season. I feel Champagne Fever may have also improved as a chaser although the formbook does not back that up yet. Visually he seems a slightly more settled and tractable in his races over 2m4 (I would discount Kempton where he just ran out of petrol). There was a school of thought out there that he had to lead but I'm not sure if that's the case anymore. I wouldn't be as worried as I was last year if there were horses around him taking him on and pestering him for the lead. That's likely to be the case at Cheltenham where Uxizandre will want to lie up handy.

famagusta · 16-02-2015 12:16PM

Nuts102 wrote: »

Which firms offer BOG on Ante Post the first i have ever heard of it. You are hard pushed to get BOG two days before a meeting i would be shocked if you get it Ante Post.

Bet365 are offering it ante post at the moment,on the 4 champ races, it is very unusual to be offering BOG on ante post alright

kfallon · 16-02-2015 12:20PM

Gringo180 wrote: »

Dodging Bullets has improved no end this year.

Because he beat Somersby and a horse who was coming back off a very long absence??

I don't rate DB at all tbh, would rather back Champagne Fever.

Shemale · 16-02-2015 12:30PM

Nuts102 wrote: »

Which firms offer BOG on Ante Post the first i have ever heard of it. You are hard pushed to get BOG two days before a meeting i would be shocked if you get it Ante Post.

NRNB isnt considered ante post by the bookies, you get hit by rule 4 once non runners happen, similarly bog can be applied. Bet365 definitely did last year and I think Powers did too.

Backstreet Moyes · 16-02-2015 12:36PM

Anybody hear anything about Au Quart De Tour just backed him at 19/1 on the exchanges. Strange drift but taking a risk for a bit of value if he turns up.

kfallon · 16-02-2015 12:51PM

Gilgamboa not going to Cheltenham after his lacklustre display yesterday.

sting60 · 16-02-2015 01:52PM

mdwexford wrote: »

Champagne Fever is priced up on his excellent past festival form and his connections.

His chase career has been disappointing so far. He's stepped up to grade 1 company 4 times and has been beaten on each occasion.

He has also never won over 2 miles over fences.

Saying he should be 3/1 fav is ludicrous.

He may come alive again at the festival but if he couldn't beat Western Warhorse he won't win a champion chase. I don't think he's progressed much this season and going up and down in distance doesn't help either.

If he was 12s or so an each way case could be made but at 5s he's no value.

Totally agree.hope the hype continues as I will b laying him at the right price.

zpehtsfd · 16-02-2015 02:12PM

Shemale wrote: »

NRNB isnt considered ante post by the bookies, you get hit by rule 4 once non runners happen, similarly bog can be applied. Bet365 definitely did last year and I think Powers did too.

NRNB is considered AP and is not subject to Rule 4.

Last year Bet365 went NRNB and BOG on all races at the same time. FWIW Should be this coming Saturday. GL

Shemale · 16-02-2015 02:13PM

Somersby is 33/1 for a reason, he is a right hand track merchant. His last four runs were on right handed tracks and he hasnt got his head in front, if anything he looks to be showing the ravages of age.

Anyone backing him should just paypal me their money, the outcome to them will be the same.

Shemale · 16-02-2015 02:20PM

zpehtsfd wrote: »

NRNB is considered AP and is not subject to Rule 4.

Last year Bet365 went NRNB and BOG on all races at the same time. FWIW Should be this coming Saturday. GL

I queried place terms with B365, attached is the response. I would be amazed if they adjust the place terms that they wouldnt also apply R4

Gregk961 · 16-02-2015 02:27PM

Ive never heard of rule 4s being applied to antepost bets. The nrnb and bog are just special offers, they are still antepost bets

roast222 · 16-02-2015 02:29PM

Un Temps pour Tout for the world hurdle at 12/1 could be a bit of value. A bit like the CC and the GC it looks like a very open contest with the betting of 6/1 the field proving as much. Beat That is the other on that loooks a bit of value at 16/1.

DylanAFC · 16-02-2015 02:36PM

kfallon wrote: »

Anyone know what the Paddy Power 22 days to go 'Special' is for today?

L'ami Serge and Vatour double. 22/1.

Shemale · 16-02-2015 02:40PM

Gregk961 wrote: »

Ive never heard of rule 4s being applied to antepost bets. The nrnb and bog are just special offers, they are still antepost bets

That is what Bet365 said after I queried what I felt was a grey area. I have emailed asking if rule 4 applies to these bets. I will screenshot their reply.

roast222 · 16-02-2015 02:41PM

The hype around Vatour has disappeared completely since that bad run at Leopardstown at xmas. If he retains the ability he showed last March albeit over fences then he should cruise the JLT but there is a big doubt after this seasons showings. The JLT is another open looking contest.

zpehtsfd · 16-02-2015 02:57PM

Shemale wrote: »

I queried place terms with B365, attached is the response. I would be amazed if they adjust the place terms that they wouldnt also apply R4

You need to verify this again as, from what i can remember, i had an AP bet with 365 and they honoured the place terms i had taken even though these terms changed by raceday. I'm sure not all bookies adhere to this though.

Rule 4 only applies after final dec stage. This is industry wide and not at bookies discretion. GL

zpehtsfd · 16-02-2015 03:06PM

roast222 wrote: »

The hype around Vatour has disappeared completely since that bad run at Leopardstown at xmas. If he retains the ability he showed last March albeit over fences then he should cruise the JLT but there is a big doubt after this seasons showings. The JLT is another open looking contest.

You know what they say "you can give forgive a horse one bad run". The JLT looks very competitive so he'll need to be on top of his game. I don't think he's backable at 5/2 though. GL

faoile@n · 16-02-2015 03:15PM

Shemale wrote: »

That is what Bet365 said after I queried what I felt was a grey area. I have emailed asking if rule 4 applies to these bets. I will screenshot their reply.

What area are you talking about?

There is no grey area. Bets placed with NRNB are not subject to rule 4 deductions. NRNB and BOG on antepost bets are a concession by bookies. This does not mean that they are not antepost bets.

Have you been gambling long?

Moon Dice · 16-02-2015 03:27PM

I'm not sure what the confusion is about either. NRNB are not subject to rule 4s. Surely everyone knows this

Apollo_Creed · 16-02-2015 03:41PM

Paddy Power giving 8/11 that McCoy will ride Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup over Holywell (Evs). Am I missing something or is that a great price? McManus will insist that McCoy rides his horse.

jimjamcos · 16-02-2015 03:54PM

Apollo_Creed wrote: »

Paddy Power giving 8/11 that McCoy will ride Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup over Holywell (Evs). Am I missing something or is that a great price? McManus will insist that McCoy rides his horse.

After all McCoy has done for him do you really think JP is the type of man to insist he rides his horse? He doesn't need the win/money and I'd hazard a guess to JP would put AP winning over his own success. You must remember he had Sunnyhillboy pulled on the morning of the race two years ago just so AP could get on the fancied Sir Des Champs. The fact Holywell is also trained by his main trainer and friend Jonjo wouldn't make it a surprise at all. AP will pick whichever one he wants and I'd say they've it priced just about right

DylanAFC · 16-02-2015 03:55PM

Apollo_Creed wrote: »

Paddy Power giving 8/11 that McCoy will ride Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup over Holywell (Evs). Am I missing something or is that a great price? McManus will insist that McCoy rides his horse.

can you send a link please?

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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