Cheltenham Festival 2015

Harry Angstrom · 12-02-2015 11:30AM

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lads, Boyles are now NRNB on novice races. I've backed Nichols Canyon for both Supreme 7/1 and Neptune 6/1. While I think his running style is tailor-made for the Supreme, he'll be sub 3/1 if lining up in Neptune. Clearly the standout novice on form.

I can't see Ruby being all that keen for him to run in the Supreme, given that he'll be riding Douvan in it. The Neptune looks the logical race for him. 6/1 NRNB is very fair indeed.

paddyisreal · 12-02-2015 11:30AM

In the neptune, I really fancy Kilcrea Vale . When this bolts up on saturday in Ascot, it wont be 12/1.

DylanAFC · 12-02-2015 11:41AM

Holywell running in the 3:30 @ Kelso. Potential Gold Cup winner?

byronbay2 · 12-02-2015 12:10PM

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lads, Boyles are now NRNB on novice races. I've backed Nichols Canyon for both Supreme 7/1 and Neptune 6/1. While I think his running style is tailor-made for the Supreme, he'll be sub 3/1 if lining up in Neptune. Clearly the standout novice on form.

Yeah, I also think he should go for the Supreme but reckon he probably won't. The only thing that might put me off NC is that I think he NEEDS cut in the ground - certainly I thought that on the flat. Soft ground and I would fancy him strongly for the Supreme, good ground and I would let him go.

skippymac6 · 12-02-2015 12:14PM

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lads, Boyles are now NRNB on novice races. I've backed Nichols Canyon for both Supreme 7/1 and Neptune 6/1. While I think his running style is tailor-made for the Supreme, he'll be sub 3/1 if lining up in Neptune. Clearly the standout novice on form.

Yep followed you on Nic Canyon and took him at 6/1 for the Neptune. I have him at 16/1 for the Supreme and Shaneshill at 10/1 for the Neptune so took 12/1 about Shaneshill to cover my bases in the supreme.

Fair to Boyles sticking their neck out first. Bet365 won't be long following them I don't think.

posturingpat · 12-02-2015 01:58PM

DylanAFC wrote: »

Holywell running in the 3:30 @ Kelso. Potential Gold Cup winner?

Was the favourite for a few months but i couldn't back him now after his performances the last twice.
Today's not exactly a good prep either,conditions couldn't be further from Gold cup conditions if they tried. All today will tell us is if he retains 4 legs and can jump a fence.

Shemale · 12-02-2015 03:31PM

Nuts102 wrote: »

You place the bet at 1/20 or whatever and when it's up they make up the difference and pay you out at 3/1 that night, unless i am missing something that;s what it means.

They can;t have a set price at 3/1 because everyone could add it to their betslip. So new members get a tenner at whatever odds and they pay out at 3/1 once its up.

Sorry only saw the odds of 1/20 there.

They are paying cash out for €10 @ 1/20, the rest of the bet is being settled by way of free bets based on €10 @ 59/20 but in multiples of €10.

So you are getting €10.50 in cash and 2 €10 free bets(I doubt they will round up to give 3 €10 bets, might be wrong), so it's a long way off a true 3/1. Still not a bad deal but a very misleading deal. Each of your €10 free bets are in effect knocking a point of the odds of each of your next two bets.

Mountainlad · 12-02-2015 03:41PM

Shemale wrote: »

Sorry only saw the odds of 1/20 there.

They are paying cash out for €10 @ 1/20, the rest of the bet is being settled by way of free bets based on €10 @ 59/20 but in multiples of €10.

So you are getting €10.50 in cash and 2 €10 free bets(I doubt they will round up to give 3 €10 bets, might be wrong), so it's a long way off a true 3/1. Still not a bad deal but a very misleading deal. Each of your €10 free bets are in effect knocking a point of the odds of each of your next two bets.

They could hardly give you .50 cent and then only give you €20 euro in free bets if what you're saying was true, it would surely be 29.50 as otherwise that would be false advertising?

I know it says in multiples of 10 but like how is that conducive to a 3/1 bet? An offer not to far removed from a scam really.

Shemale · 12-02-2015 03:52PM

DylanAFC wrote: »

Holywell running in the 3:30 @ Kelso. Potential Gold Cup winner?

I have backed him for it, haven't seen todays race but all he can do is win. Blinkers make a huge difference and he is better this time of year.

He is prone to jumping mistakes but I have always loved the way he travels through his races and he finds plenty. It's a poor Gold Cup on paper and don't why he can't win.

Shemale · 12-02-2015 03:54PM

Mountainlad wrote: »

They could hardly give you .50 cent and then only give you €20 euro in free bets if what you're saying was true, it would surely be 29.50 as otherwise that would be false advertising?

I know it says in multiples of 10 but like how is that conducive to a 3/1 bet? An offer not to far removed from a scam really.

That is what I have been saying, it looks more like a 2/1 bet and then you are losing by them paying out free bets instead of cash. I would be surprised if a bookie ever paid out in the gamblers favour, I read more as they said in multiples of €10. You would be better off if they paid in cash or paid it all out in free bets but the mix of both does you twice.

Gregk961 · 12-02-2015 04:12PM

Beast of Burden 50-1 nrmb for the Neptune, the happiest ive been with a price so far. Won over 3m most recently but I have a feeling he'll be better over shorter. 25-1 antepost in some places, crazy price I think with MB.

zpehtsfd · 12-02-2015 04:35PM

Mountainlad wrote: »

They could hardly give you .50 cent and then only give you €20 euro in free bets if what you're saying was true, it would surely be 29.50 as otherwise that would be false advertising?

I know it says in multiples of 10 but like how is that conducive to a 3/1 bet? An offer not to far removed from a scam really.

Just seen this on twitter from 32Red:

"you'll be paid out for the win from the bet (£10.50 inc stake) and then 2x £10 free bets and 1x £9.50 free bet."

Shemale · 12-02-2015 04:55PM

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Just seen this on twitter from 32Red:

"you'll be paid out for the win from the bet (£10.50 inc stake) and then 2x £10 free bets and 1x £9.50 free bet."

Do you have the link I didn't see it.

Mountainlad · 12-02-2015 04:56PM

Shemale wrote: »

Do you have the link I didn't see it.

https://twitter.com/32RedSport/status/565910434948325376

Shemale · 12-02-2015 05:01PM

Gregk961 wrote: »

Beast of Burden 50-1 nrmb for the Neptune, the happiest ive been with a price so far. Won over 3m most recently but I have a feeling he'll be better over shorter. 25-1 antepost in some places, crazy price I think with MB.

Some performance the other day and I will be taking some of that price, it's madness.

Just watched Holywell, happy with the 14/1 I have and I will be going in again, got in tight twice barring that he jumped well and won snugly enough by 25L considering he was conceding 17lbs to the second horse. Bearing in mind he is normally trained to the day for Chelt, there may be more to come.

lemush · 12-02-2015 06:15PM

Gregk961 wrote: »

Beast of Burden 50-1 nrmb for the Neptune, the happiest ive been with a price so far. Won over 3m most recently but I have a feeling he'll be better over shorter. 25-1 antepost in some places, crazy price I think with MB.

He is very very good. Heard some good things about him from a good source before he bolted up in his bumper. Think Neptune is ideal as this stage of his career.

mdwexford · 12-02-2015 08:39PM

sting60 wrote: »

Based on my opinion with regards conygree(long time back) please read Phil smiths assessment (now) of this novice.he has rated him 5lb better than denman as a novice.Phil smith" he is one of the best ever novices over 3m,IMO".

Means little comparing them.
Denman didn't run against his elders so it was much harder it put up similar numbers.

Bobs Worth has zero chance of winning the Gold Cup, win only I wouldn't back him at 50s. Doubt he will be placed either.

He fell out of love with the game a good while back.

Gringo180 · 12-02-2015 10:34PM

Isnt it mad what a year can do in racing. People saying Bobs Worth was bomb proof in last years Gold Cup and 2 runs later saying he hasn't a chance this year :pac: beaten only a few lengths last year after veering sharply in the last 200 yards and the slow pace and decent ground wouldnt of really helped his cause. He is a cracking each way bet imo.

Geraghty was acting the bollox on him in the Lexus too, he was staying on coming to 2 out and then Barry stopped pushing him out.

Meath Centre Forward · 12-02-2015 10:49PM

The last post is probably the on the money - amazing how opinion of Bobs Worth has changed so much in a year. To be honest, he looks to have regressed to me but that opinion is nearly all based on his run in this season's Lexus and how infrequently he's run. He actually ran quite a decent race in last year's Gold Cup if you ignore the end. I won't be backing him but I couldn't totally write him off either. Best of luck to anyone who fancies him - certainly wouldn't be a shock if he won again.

I would agree to an extent Henderson's horses don't have the same longevity as Nicholls do. Not sure if it's coincidence but you look at all the injuries the stable has had to deal with this season for example and then you wonder is it bad luck or what? Off the top of my head too, horses like Trabolgan, Binocular, Long Run, Punchestowns, Jack The Giant & Riverside Theatre all developed problems as they got older, injuries or loss of form etc.

Peintre Celebre · 12-02-2015 10:53PM

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

The last post is probably the on the money - amazing how opinion of Bobs Worth has changed so much in a year. To be honest, he looks to have regressed to me but that opinion is nearly all based on his run in this season's Lexus and how infrequently he's run. He actually ran quite a decent race in last year's Gold Cup if you ignore the end. I won't be backing him but I couldn't totally write him off either. Best of luck to anyone who fancies him - certainly wouldn't be a shock if he won again.

I would agree to an extent Henderson's horses don't have the same longevity as Nicholls do. Not sure if it's coincidence but you look at all the injuries the stable has had to deal with this season for example and then you wonder is it bad luck or what? Off the top of my head too, horses like Trabolgan, Binocular, Long Run, Punchestowns, Jack The Giant & Riverside Theatre all developed problems as they got older, injuries or loss of form etc.

Punchestowns- there's a horse that had slipped my memory. What a disappointment he proved to be. They talked of him like he was the next big thing

mr.jingle · 12-02-2015 11:01PM

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Punchestowns- there's a horse that had slipped my memory. What a disappointment he proved to be. They talked of him like he was the next big thing

Did he go off fav in Big Bucks first World Hurdle?

Can't have the argument about Bobs Worth gone at the game, last season he ran a shocker fto, won a lexus and only beat a few lengths in the Gold Cup. He has only had 14 runs over jumps so hardly gone to the well once to often imo. 5 time winner on the course. Just think he has been written off far too early. 16/1 is a nice price as it is a seriously wide open Gold Cup, I honestly think they could run this race 10 times and have at least 5 different winners

Oscars Well. · 12-02-2015 11:06PM

mr.jingle wrote: »

Did he go off fav in Big Bucks first World Hurdle?

Can't have the argument about Bobs Worth gone at the game, last season he ran a shocker fto, won a lexus and only beat a few lengths in the Gold Cup. He has only had 14 runs over jumps so hardly gone to the well once to often imo. 5 time winner on the course. Just think he has been written off far too early. 16/1 is a nice price as it is a seriously wide open Gold Cup, I honestly think they could run this race 10 times and have at least 5 different winners

Nope, Kasbah Bliss.

Gringo180 · 12-02-2015 11:07PM

Last years Gold Cup was a very strange race, can anybody remember a winner (2nd and 3rd too) coming up the centre of the track like that before? Pretty sure the ground was unusually fast on the Friday last year too?

Peintre Celebre · 12-02-2015 11:08PM

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Nope, Kasbah Bliss.

Does anyone remember the British press regarding his jockey. Such personal insults about his appearance, I remember one either saying his face resembled a shovel or that it'd been smashed by a shovel.

mr.jingle · 12-02-2015 11:33PM

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Does anyone remember the British press regarding his jockey. Such personal insults about his appearance, I remember one either saying his face resembled a shovel or that it'd been smashed by a shovel.

Are you sure that wasn't just Clare Balding asking him a few questions before the race!

Ill never forget the interview with Liam Treadwell after the National.

Does Doumen send any horses over anymore?

L'ami was another of his I used to back, think he placed in a Gold Cup in the mid noughties

rossom · 13-02-2015 02:19AM

Normally, I'd see people's points about writing off Bob's Worth and if he was trained by someone else then I'd agree. Nicky Henderson gets his horses to land the big races but the cost is the horse's longevity. Long Run being the prime example.

I can't remember where I saw this stat or exactly the figures but Henderson's record in Graded (might just be Grade 1s) races with older horses is absolutely terrible. Think he's only had 2 winners from 50+ runners in Graded races which is in stark contrast to his record with younger horses where is strike rate is incomparably better.

I could back Bob's Worth with stolen money and would be very surprised if he places. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong but I'd be very surprised if he have to do that.

Rhinestone Cowboy · 13-02-2015 07:42AM

Gringo180 wrote: »

Last years Gold Cup was a very strange race, can anybody remember a winner (2nd and 3rd too) coming up the centre of the track like that before? Pretty sure the ground was unusually fast on the Friday last year too?

The race was an aberration.

still have no idea what happened.

Rhinestone Cowboy · 13-02-2015 07:43AM

rossom wrote: »

Normally, I'd see people's points about writing off Bob's Worth and if he was trained by someone else then I'd agree. Nicky Henderson gets his horses to land the big races but the cost is the horse's longevity. Long Run being the prime example.

I can't remember where I saw this stat or exactly the figures but Henderson's record in Graded (might just be Grade 1s) races with older horses is absolutely terrible. Think he's only had 2 winners from 50+ runners in Graded races which is in stark contrast to his record with younger horses where is strike rate is incomparably better.

I could back Bob's Worth with stolen money and would be very surprised if he places. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong but I'd be very surprised if he have to do that.

It's an old Nick Mordin stat.

handsfree2 · 13-02-2015 08:05AM

Rhinestone Cowboy wrote: »

It's an old Nick Mordin stat.

How does he usually do with his Cheltenham tips?

Backstreet Moyes · 13-02-2015 08:36AM

rossom wrote: »

Normally, I'd see people's points about writing off Bob's Worth and if he was trained by someone else then I'd agree. Nicky Henderson gets his horses to land the big races but the cost is the horse's longevity. Long Run being the prime example.

I can't remember where I saw this stat or exactly the figures but Henderson's record in Graded (might just be Grade 1s) races with older horses is absolutely terrible. Think he's only had 2 winners from 50+ runners in Graded races which is in stark contrast to his record with younger horses where is strike rate is incomparably better.

I could back Bob's Worth with stolen money and would be very surprised if he places. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong but I'd be very surprised if he have to do that.

In fairness Long Run hit every fence for two years but never fell till the national. I would say they were a big help in finishing him off.

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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