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A Slow Journey to Faster Times
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All good for you, but it's more our handicaps I'm worried about...But if they're movable, they're movable either way so we'd best leave as isMaybe all those carbs on Wednesday did me good?
Seriously though, I think the race efforts the last two Sundays have helped improve my fitness a little bit. Another thing that may explain the quicker pace is that my first few miles are generally downhill in the cold while warming up. It takes a while to get the beats up in those circumstances. 0 -
All good for you, but it's more our handicaps I'm worried about...But if they're movable, they're movable either way so we'd best leave as is
You would say that since you're by far the best handicapped in the field :pac:.
There would be at least two minutes chopped off that if we had seen Tuesday's sessions before the times were released :cool:0 -
It's the quiet ones you should be shaving chunks off, not me. Empty vessels and all thatYou would say that since you're by far the best handicapped in the field :pac:.
There would be at least two minutes chopped off that if we had seen Tuesday's sessions before the times were released :cool:
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Continued.......
Enniscorthy 10k
Yaboya1 (Scratch) – is hoping to run a pb and break 37 minutes for the first time. Last Sunday's 5 mile time suggests this should be possible, but burnout is possible with a 10 miler to come in Trim this weekend. Vulnerable.
Calvin Johnson (-3mins) – encountered some unexpected heart problems in Raheny causing a DNF, but had gone into that race in good form expecting to run a big pb. He’ll come here fresher than originally anticipated because of that, and with training going so well lately the arbitrary 40 minute time barrier may be under real threat.
barryoneill50 (-3mins) – could probably be likened to an old school Martin Pipe style plot for a big handicap. Very little info is leaked from the stable and posts of: am - 5, pm - 6, total - 11 don't give much away in terms of form. Has been dropping down the weights (& belt sizes) since early in the season and may be ready for a huge pb attempt here. Can only be judged on his recent Ferrycarrig run formwise, but he ran that coming off an illness and could be capable of better. Let's forget about the field and make this a straight match between him & Calvin Johnson. Evens each of two. Who do you want??
Dubgal72 (-5mins) – normally smashes her goal time by at least two minutes, so expect a pre-race target of sub 44 here. Went out and shamelessly destroyed the field in a recent X-Country, despite claiming she'd be happy just to get around beforehand. Has called me a bousy in the past, but everyone knows it takes one to know one........
adrian522 (-8mins) - may be a late supplementary entry to the race. Fortunately for him that's still only €10 :pac:. Ran a pb of 35:43 in Raheny which he celebrated by acting thoroughly disgusted. Is now claiming he'll be happy with a sub 50 here when in reality he should be aiming for sub 45, especially given (like Dubgal72) he's been using performance enhancing footwear lately.
Pacing Mule (-10mins) – Improved training has seen pb’s at all distances in the past 12 months, bar a hiccup in the DCM. This can probably be put down to illness quite close to the race, with an impressive run in Raheny last Sunday backing up that theory. Has publicly stated he’d be hoping to run 48:30-49:00 here, but something closer to 47:30 is definitely a big possibility in my opinion.
MKDTH (-20mins) – is like the human marmite of the A/R forum. Constantly creates debate and opinion with his crackpot theories and revolutionary training style. Ran a very nice pb in Fingal of 57:25 last July, but recent form suggests that won’t be threatened here. Maybe he’s been sandbagging in recent training/races in pursuit of a favourable handicap mark and some easy money from his rivals. We’ll find out soon enough.
Let the trash talk begin........
On the eve of the race a revisit of the odds is always welcome.:PMy market:
Dubgal72 (-5mins) - 3/1
barryoneill50 (-3mins) - 10/3
yaboya1 (Scratch) - 7/2
Calvin Johnson (-3mins) - 4/1
adrian522 (-8mins) - 7/1
Pacing Mule (-10mins) - 10/1
MKDTH (-20mins) - 12/1
Pacing Mule - At only 10 min handicap off Yaboya I'd need a 46/47 to have a chance. Was originally going to aim for 49. Would have to be a long shot. 10/1 is about right !
Yaboya at scratch is where all the odds were based on. Pegged at 37 min but has since speculated 36 should be his aim. Likely to go out and hit well below 37. 7/2 reasonable odds.
Dubgal72 - Only 3.5 min off Yaboya at Raheny 5. Add in the extra minute of padding Yaboya has priced into himself and you have a close call here. 3/1 fits in !
Calvin and Barry - Form hard to judge but pegged together 3 min off Yaboya seems about right to me. Of these 4 it's hard to call. Given the unknown form both at 4/1
Adrian - 5.5 min off Yaboya at Raheny. 8 minutes handicap very generous. Joint favourite for me. Original 7/1 is massive odds. More like 5/2
MKDTH The other joint favourite with a crazily generous 20 min handicap. Sub 56 almost guaranteed to beat Yaboya. Is aiming for 54 and should get it. Still has 2 minutes padding if not. Again the original 12/1 odds could bankrupt a bookmakers ! 5/2 joint favourite. 0 -
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You don't fool me, PM. Your 5 mile time suggests sub 48 for you. And your strong finish in Raheny will give you the confidence to push it. You're the dark horse for sure.
Ah but Yaboya is gunning for 36/37 and I only have 10 min handicap to him. Sub 48 is realistic but the handicap is what makes me a long shot. 0 -
Pacing Mule wrote: »Ha - when it comes to odds / balancing books ...
You don't fool me, you know exactly what you are at.
You're like the guy in my school that used to give odds on the Royal Rumble- everyone was 2/1 with 30 to chose from
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Thanks for all the good wishes.
Best of luck to everyone else racing tomorrow too, Enniscorthy or elsewhere.
By the way PM, I agree that if MKDTH runs sub 56 he'll almost certainly beat me but that doesn't mean he'll win the handicap. For example Dubgal72 going below 41 will trump that. That's why she's favourite 0 -
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