Oscars Best Picture-Boyhood

costadeldole · 24-12-2014 8:16pm #1

Oscars Best Picture (22nd February 2015) Boyhood.
Short odds, but its a dead cert to win.
The market is only up on Betfair's sportsbook at the moment, so I am waiting until its up on their exchange to lump on.
Here is a link to show all bookies with a market on it:
http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture

the whole year inn · 25-12-2014 9:03am

i havens seen it or birdman but from what I hear Birdman is real oscar bait and @11/1 worth a shot.Ill watch both later.
Why you think boyhood is a cert?

costadeldole · 25-12-2014 2:08pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

i havens seen it or birdman but from what I hear Birdman is real oscar bait and @11/1 worth a shot.Ill watch both later.
Why you think boyhood is a cert?

Rave reviews from critics. And its due to win at the Golden Globes (January 11th). Generally speaking films that win at the Golden Globes also win at the Oscars.
Its fits the profile of a winning film, that the aged judging panel of the Oscars will vote for.
Birdman is in the comedy category, and Boyhood in drama; so they wont be going head to head anyway.
I am 100% sure on Boyhood. The early short odds indicates massive money being lumped on, so the insiders know already.

costadeldole · 26-12-2014 2:56pm

When the Golden Globes are finished Betfair will be putting a market up on their exchange.

When you see 10k on it that's me. A nice easy 2000 net profit in a day.

When I go in, its balls deep.

You heard it here first.

Thank me later.

ziedth · 26-12-2014 5:38pm

ALLOT of buzz gathering around Birdman and there have been a couple of upsets over the years (Crash, The English Patient and Shakespeare in Love to name a few)

Ethan Hawke has ruffled some feathers in his time too. Im fairly sure he called the Oscars "Asinine" not even two years ago.

Anyway, FWIW I think your probably right it's the kind of film the academy will eat up and the production of it is so high concept they deserve it. I disagree it's the set in stone conclusion you think it is.

ianburke · 15-01-2015 8:15pm

1/16 best price. not sure why OP thought it would be 1/5?

Dan Chipowski · 17-01-2015 9:24pm

In fairness it was a general 1/5 shot up until last week, and you can still get 1.18 on Betfair (so in or around 2/11, 1/6).

As for the OP's claims of having 10k on it, there's only been just over four grand traded on it, so he hasn't made his move yet. (Which may not be a surprise

)

ianburke · 17-01-2015 9:48pm

nope was never 1/5 anywhere. it was 1/7 to win the tv awards which it did but shortest ive seen it in a bookie was 1/14 and ive been checking for wks. i reckon the OP will put 10k on he seems like a bit of a header. it does look a sure thing tho so hes tipping well. hope to hear from him once his ban is lifted.

Dan Chipowski · 17-01-2015 10:25pm

ianburke wrote: »

nope was never 1/5 anywhere. it was 1/7 to win the tv awards which it did but shortest ive seen it in a bookie was 1/14 and ive been checking for wks. i reckon the OP will put 10k on he seems like a bit of a header. it does look a sure thing tho so hes tipping well. hope to hear from him once his ban is lifted.

Eh, you're wrong. Click on 'All History' on the link below to see the historical bookies prices. It was generally a 1/5 shot for a number of weeks. So you haven't been checking too hard.

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture/bet-history/boyhood/today

ianburke · 18-01-2015 2:48am

Dan Chipowski wrote: »

Eh, you're wrong. Click on 'All History' on the link below to see the historical bookies prices. It was generally a 1/5 shot for a number of weeks. So you haven't been checking too hard.

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture/bet-history/boyhood/today

only been checking since late december. nice work kid. those who got on at those prices must be laughing now. great shout again OP. we need this guys ban lifted!

insidertips · 20-01-2015 1:48am

Best Picture-Boyhood.

Sure as night follows day.

insidertips · 21-01-2015 10:10am

Bookies should start settling on this already.
Just look at the odds across the board on oddschecker.
Odds are 1.06 now on Betfair, I expect 1.01 on finals night.
For odds to be that short at this stage, it means the results have already been leaked to insiders.
Boyhood has already won it.

the whole year inn · 21-01-2015 11:54am

ianburke wrote: »

only been checking since late december. nice work kid. those who got on at those prices must be laughing now. great shout again OP. we need this guys ban lifted!

In the Mrs Brown boys thread he was unhelpful and was delighted that a few of us didn't get paid out.He was rude to a few posters and he deserves the ban.

Ian Whelan · 25-01-2015 10:30pm

2/7 now.

ianburke · 26-01-2015 1:42am

0P will not be happy. hes on at around 1.2 ish....out to 1.5 now. yikes crazy stuff

ianburke · 26-01-2015 6:02am

last price matched 1.78 betfair. birdman into 7/5 in some books. ouch.

Ian Whelan · 27-01-2015 6:06pm

4/5 or 1.8 in a place now. Original poster must be in distress.

ianburke · 27-01-2015 6:55pm

Ian Whelan wrote: »

4/5 or 1.8 in a place now. Original poster must be in distress.

and were matched at 2.4 also. a restless few wks sleep in store it would appear

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-01-2015 7:58pm

Oscars 22nd Feb, still a wee while off to load on at @ x1.8.

/ On the other hand, Costa Book of the Year to be announced (today) 27th January 2015.
/ Also CBB still with about x10 contenders, with Keith Chegwin @ x4.5. To be fair he's probably the least annoying of them all. Might get a bit of a 'sympathy vote %' also as wasn't he the fella who's good looking wife left/cheated fair few years ago.

ianburke · 27-01-2015 8:23pm

insidertips wrote: »

Bookies should start settling on this already.
Just look at the odds across the board on oddschecker.
Odds are 1.06 now on Betfair, I expect 1.01 on finals night.
For odds to be that short at this stage, it means the results have already been leaked to insiders.
Boyhood has already won it.

:eek: :eek:

fair play to ziedth and whole year inn. im sure u guys can lay off having backed birdman at long odds. great shout whether it wins or not. nearly odds on now

the whole year inn · 27-01-2015 9:50pm

ianburke wrote: »

:eek: :eek:

fair play to ziedth and whole year inn. im sure u guys can lay off having backed birdman at long odds. great shout whether it wins or not. nearly odds on now

Didnt back anything,not untill I have watched them both,I seen birdman today and it is a great movie and is pure oscar bait.

Juwwi · 27-01-2015 10:38pm

:eek:

we need to get a petition going to get the OP unbanned

Mezcita · 08-02-2015 6:19pm

Birdman won the best picture prize at the Director's Guild Awards last night. Boyhood now out to 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

ianburke · 08-02-2015 6:59pm

Mezcita wrote: »

Birdman won the best picture prize at the Director's Guild Awards last night. Boyhood now out to 2/1 with Ladbrokes.[/QUOTE=

OP must be getting nervous...

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-02-2015 10:48pm

Reckon OP has moved (whatever's left) over on to EddieSherrydin, to win a few gongs at the BritAwards.

1. Brit Awards - Best British Album Betting Odds
Ed Sheeran - X
88.64 % popularity
x1.67 (BP Bwin)

2. Brit Awards - Best British Male Betting Odds
Ed Sheeran
84 % popularity
x1.57c. (all)

You heard it hear first/again. Odds bit too short for me to consider all the same, (as a single market anyway).

ianburke · 09-02-2015 12:03am

Ariel Hallowed Bread wrote: »

Reckon OP has moved (whatever's left) over on to EddieSherrydin, to win a few gongs at the BritAwards.

1. Brit Awards - Best British Album Betting Odds
Ed Sheeran - X
88.64 % popularity
x1.67 (BP Bwin)

2. Brit Awards - Best British Male Betting Odds
Ed Sheeran
84 % popularity
x1.57c. (all)

You heard it hear first/again. Odds bit too short for me to consider all the same, (as a single market anyway).

he hasnt a pot to whizz in now mate. doubt we will ever hear from him again tbh. maybe its not such a bad thing.

the whole year inn · 09-02-2015 2:05am

Dont want anyone to lose money to the bookies but it was far from a cert bet.

ianburke · 09-02-2015 3:26am

the whole year inn wrote: »

Dont want anyone to lose money to the bookies but it was far from a cert bet.

yep its weird how everywhere it was like 1/16,1/20 etc...amazing how a market can move like that. its probably a decent bet now at what 2/1 or so? saw it at 3.45 betfair earlier. i have a feeling it will still win

Bateman · 09-02-2015 10:00pm

Anyone else on the ill-fated Beyoncé gamble last night?

A fairly respected Vegas-based lad put it up on Twitter that there's been a gamble on her to win best album and some books over there had pulled the market. Bet365 were 5/4, and Powers held 4/5 for a good while before pulling it after midnight.

****ing Beck at 10/1!!!

4068ac1elhodqr · 09-02-2015 10:17pm

Sure Beck any day, a musical multi-talented genius vs 'annoying diva-drivel' soley limited to the 'female teenage pop segment',
always dancing around in those big heels/tights. Wouldn't have backed 'er at 100/1.
Good stuff.

Bateman · 09-02-2015 11:28pm

I wouldn't be a fan of her music, I just wanted to get with the money!

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2015 3:19am

Lucky you didn't back her then

Eddie Sherry looks a safe bet for TheBrits,
but then again that whinger SamS, seems to have done well at the Grammys.

Roll on the Oscars...

ziedth · 11-02-2015 4:42pm

I only put €10 on birdman in the end. Which to be honest is about as big as I go. I kinda have to thank the OP if it does come off. I probably wouldn't have given it much thought if it weren't for this thread.

ianburke · 11-02-2015 10:56pm

ziedth wrote: »

I only put €10 on birdman in the end. Which to be honest is about as big as I go. I kinda have to thank the OP if it does come off. I probably wouldn't have given it much thought if it weren't for this thread.

nice one mate. are u thinking of throwing a fiver on boyhood at 2/1 to get ur stake back? in the media it seems its 50/50 with boyhood still favoured so the odds dont seem to be quite right yet still

inforfun · 12-02-2015 11:11am

robbie1977 wrote: »

:eek:

we need to get a petition going to get the OP unbanned

MOD
I take it you are joking but the world will have to start to turn the other way around before that will happen.

Deco99 · 13-02-2015 5:46pm

Oh and would Boyhood be a good bet now?

Just thinking that seems Grand Budapest and Birdman are both FOX films that it might dilute their vote

the whole year inn · 13-02-2015 6:08pm

Deco99 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity what did the OP get banned for?

Oh and would Boyhood be a good bet now?

Just thinking that seems Grand Budapest and Birdman are both FOX films that it might dilute their vote

He posted up a bet for Mrs Brown Boys to be most watched show on Christmas day.The bet came in but some of us took it with bet365 who didn't pay out for about 2 weeks after.He was very condescending to the few of us that took it with bet365 and posted some distasteful link putting us down.He was banned for a month shortly after.

Still have to watch boyhood then decide later but id say it going be between these two.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2015 8:12pm

Only thing of interest (numerical wise) is Whiplash returning < x125 of investment,
pity there isn't a 1/4 available for 2nd/3rd places.
jazz drums, cool like.

the whole year inn · 15-02-2015 11:14pm

Right I watched all but Selma for this category and Boyhood is by far the worst,if its just the gimmick and it wins then Id be very surprised.The movie is one long boring pile of sh!t.Birdman is by far a better movie and I really enjoyed it and I think my self it going to be between Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel which I really enjoyed aswell and at 50s its worth a 10er.

Whiplash is a decent movie and JK Simmons was unreal in it checked the odds on best supporting and he is odds on.
Best actor I see they have Eddie Redmayne as odds on winner,I wasn't blown away by his performance and i think Michael Keaton is in with a real chance here.He was great in it and I m going to put 20 on at 3/1.

Wacker The Attacker · 21-02-2015 9:56am

costadeldole wrote: »

When the Golden Globes are finished Betfair will be putting a market up on their exchange.

When you see 10k on it that's me. A nice easy 2000 net profit in a day.

When I go in, its balls deep.

You heard it here first.

Thank me later.

How I laughed.

the whole year inn · 21-02-2015 12:57pm

Any one watch film 2015 on BBC,they where discussing the best picture and they where drolling over Boyhood and both said they wanted Boyhood to win and it should win.
Has anyone in here watched boyhood,what do they think,the reviewers where going on about the tone of the movie and how they kept the tone through out even over the long period of time.I still hate it tho.

mailburner · 21-02-2015 10:08pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

Any one watch film 2015 on BBC,they where discussing the best picture and they where drolling over Boyhood and both said they wanted Boyhood to win and it should win.
Has anyone in here watched boyhood,what do they think,the reviewers where going on about the tone of the movie and how they kept the tone through out even over the long period of time.I still hate it tho.

you put me off watching it,didnt want to waste almost three hours of my life

I have to back it at 13/8 though

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-02-2015 10:30pm

3hrs? Sounds like a documentary series.
Wouldn't even spark much interest if stuck on one of those 24hr long-hauler flights.
1'40" is about right.

ianburke · 22-02-2015 2:53am

mailburner wrote: »

you put me off watching it,didnt want to waste almost three hours of my life

I have to back it at 13/8 though

me2. as the guy above said its still favored by a lot in the media. got to be a value bet tho and we wont be hiding behind the sofa like costadeldole on his big 1.2 10k bet.:eek:

the whole year inn · 22-02-2015 3:20am

Ariel Hallowed Bread wrote: »

3hrs? Sounds like a documentary series.
Wouldn't even spark much interest if stuck on one of those 24hr long-hauler flights.
1'40" is about right.

It just goes through his life from a kid to when he leaves for college thats it.

ziedth · 22-02-2015 3:46pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

It just goes through his life from a kid to when he leaves for college thats it.

Yea, I admire the concept behind it and I probably will watch it but it wouldn't interest me I must say.

ALSO, as much as I'd never want to see anyone loosing a bet I can't but help smile thinking about the poor OP going postal with worry. Mainly because the way he came across following the mrs brown's bet.

Having said all that, I reckon boyhood will win

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-02-2015 3:54pm

Boyhood drifting out as much as x2.77, but still an even capture of the bets with the Birdman (short as x1.4) with both 35% each.

Mrs Brown to win again next year

ianburke · 22-02-2015 5:30pm

Ariel Hallowed Bread wrote: »

Boyhood drifting out as much as x2.77, but still an even capture of the bets with the Birdman (short as x1.4) with both 35% each.

Mrs Brown to win again next year

too bad your broke! how many losing tips in a row have you given now? and if this gets beat another. surprised your still posting on here after your big brother failure. be careful or the mods will see this is just another one of your fake accounts. your like the majority of gamblers, myself included. like us you wouldnt pick a winner out of your arcehole. nothing wrong with that...but claiming they are certs and "the inside info" has already decided who wins is ridiculous.

well done on your mrs browns boys bet but we saw no screenshot so we all probably had more on than u. after all u told us ur on the dole and re-use postage stamps and envelopes in other threads last year.after you embarrassed yourself mocking others i doubt anybody followed a tip you posted again. a few of us will back boyhood tonight at 13/8. might stick 20 on...i dont have to lie about my stakes to feel good about myself in a forum.

mailburner · 22-02-2015 5:50pm

holding off till later myself
might hit 2/1 yet, already 2.88 with matchbook

poisonated · 22-02-2015 5:51pm

I think it deserves to win!

ianburke · 22-02-2015 5:59pm

i stuck a tenner on there at 7/4 365 and will do a fiver later maybe if i dont forget. it would be funny if a complete outsider won it. still amazed it was like 1/20 a few wks back and now nearly 2/1. all because of those other mickey mouse awards that were being handed out. just get the feeling the market has over-reacted to that and boyhood should be 6/5 or thereabouts

Oscars Best Picture-Boyhood

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