Red C Poll

alaimacerc · 15-01-2015 11:31PM

For Reals wrote: »

Just to note that when Sinn Fein are topping, 'these polls carry no real weight' etc.

Just like the ones like this, where they're not. Especially where the Independents are the ones "topping", which as I've pointed out tends to make a nonsense of the whole business. Though if you were busy salivating the prospects of an Adams-Ross coalition and we're harshing your mellow, all apologies.

RDM_83 again · 15-01-2015 11:47PM

Ok to leave aside the usual SF/Anti-SF warfare, what does this mean for Labour? I know the polls are innaccurate but they do seem to have a consistency in their (Labs) results in the polls that might actually be backed up in an actual election.
Is it decimation time or is it survivable for them?

BoJack Horseman · 16-01-2015 12:06AM

RDM_83 again wrote: »

Ok to leave aside the usual SF/Anti-SF warfare, what does this mean for Labour? I know the polls are innaccurate but they do seem to have a consistency in their (Labs) results in the polls that might actually be backed up in an actual election.
Is it decimation time or is it survivable for them?

A literal decimation would be a great result!
I'd imagine they will return 10-14 TDs.... Relying on popular local personalities rather than any particular grá for the party as a whole.

They will, however be in the next government, with 1 senior & 1 junior ministry for their efforts.

alaimacerc · 16-01-2015 12:35AM

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They will, however be in the next government, with 1 senior & 1 junior ministry for their efforts.

Why are you so sure of that? PD fashion revival prediction?

BoJack Horseman · 16-01-2015 01:12AM

alaimacerc wrote: »

Why are you so sure of that? PD fashion revival prediction?

They will be in government out of necessity to make up the numbers..... And with a dozen or so TDs are going to get a seat at the cabinet table.

What coalition partner hasn't had a cabinet position?

alaimacerc · 16-01-2015 01:16AM

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They will be in government out of necessity to make up the numbers.....

With whom? Or are you assuming "whatever else is going + Labour"?

BoJack Horseman · 16-01-2015 01:30AM

alaimacerc wrote: »

With whom? Or are you assuming "whatever else is going + Labour"?

More or less.

The next Dáil may have as little as 110 party member TDs.

Even a hammered Labour party with a dozen or so TDs will find itself back at the cabinet table.

The alternative is herding a similar number of cats/Indies.... which is obviously trickier.

Fr Tod Umptious · 16-01-2015 01:46AM

RDM_83 again wrote: »

Ok to leave aside the usual SF/Anti-SF warfare, what does this mean for Labour? I know the polls are innaccurate but they do seem to have a consistency in their (Labs) results in the polls that might actually be backed up in an actual election.
Is it decimation time or is it survivable for them?

Its probably easier to predict the fate of Labour than that of SF.

The right of center will not vote for them because in govt they were too far left and a hindrance to progress, the left of center will not vote for them because they were too far right and deserted their core.

As junior partners they will be hung out to dry and will rebound after 15 or so years of being the party of protest.

Rinse and repeat

alaimacerc · 16-01-2015 01:58AM

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

More or less.

The next Dáil may have as little as 110 party member TDs.

Even a hammered Labour party with a dozen or so TDs will find itself back at the cabinet table.

The alternative is herding a similar number of cats/Indies.... which is obviously trickier.

Surely if there's very large numbers of Indies in the next Dail (50! I feel a swoon coming on...) they'll have by that point have herded themselves into several "groupings" (whether the ones accreting at present or otherwise). If only because otherwise an omnitechnicalshamblesgroup is too horrific a prospect to contemplate. So the difficulties of dealing with them may be somewhat overstated.

FG+Labour being returned still seems very unlikely, unless it can square the minority government or support from some Indies circle. FF+SF seems likely to need Indies regardless, and if Labour were to throw in with that lot, they'd look very desperately-clinging-to-power indeed. FG+FF still seems like the unthinkable, but it might not need anyone else at all.

alaimacerc · 16-01-2015 02:02AM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

As junior partners they will be hung out to dry and will rebound after 15 or so years of being the party of protest.

Rinse and repeat

What the "repeat" looks like depends if there's any of the long-threatened "realignment" in the meantime. Will there be a credible "left bloc" for them to be the moderate/sane/non-toxic/non-nasty-nationalist wing of? Or will the left as a whole stay strictly a minority interest, with people drifting aimless between brands without meaningfully increasing their numbers?

Though to be fair, the next election looks to be hard enough to call. Trying it for three elections out would seem to be quite the challenge.

Quin_Dub · 16-01-2015 11:18AM

FYI - Full historical list of Opinion polls since the Last GE is here

As far as the next Dail goes I can't see beyond an FG/LAB + Others government to be honest.

FG will end up with around 54/55 seats (having brought those that lost the whip back on-board, excluding Lucinda)

This is based on the fact that 36% of the vote in 2011 got them 76 seats..Assuming that by the time the election comes around they'll be sitting at maybe 27/28% in the polls that would bring them ~55 seats in a 158 seat Dail.

The same calculations for Labour , assuming they stay around the 8/9% mark would give them around 14 seats, although I suspect they might not quite to that level maybe 12 is a more realistic number..

So - FG/Lab will have somewhere around 66/67 seats combined..

FF will come in around 25 seats , SF will come at about 20 seats , leaving 47 seats for the Independents et al..

At ~25 seats FF won't go in to Government with anybody.

SF have already stated that they will only go in as the largest party and at the ~20 seat level there are just way too many cats to be herded to make that workable.

The only viable Government to be made in the above scenario is a minority FG/Lab +Others mix sitting at around 6/7 seats short of an overall majority

Godge · 16-01-2015 11:19AM

alaimacerc wrote: »

Surely if there's very large numbers of Indies in the next Dail (50! I feel a swoon coming on...) they'll have by that point have herded themselves into several "groupings" (whether the ones accreting at present or otherwise). If only because otherwise an omnitechnicalshamblesgroup is too horrific a prospect to contemplate. So the difficulties of dealing with them may be somewhat overstated.

FG+Labour being returned still seems very unlikely, unless it can square the minority government or support from some Indies circle. FF+SF seems likely to need Indies regardless, and if Labour were to throw in with that lot, they'd look very desperately-clinging-to-power indeed. FG+FF still seems like the unthinkable, but it might not need anyone else at all.

FG + Lab + Ross Group is possible, even Lucinda or the Greens if necessary. That grouping could well get a majority of 5-10.

Donnelly staying out of the Ross group is interesting as it suggests it is populist rather than right-wing slash the public sector as it might otherwise have been, which in turn makes it a group easier for FG/Lab to do business with.

The only way I could see FF going in with FG is if they are smaller than SF. In that scenario FF would have a choice, second biggest in government or second biggest in opposition. The obvious choice is second biggest in government as you will have some goodies to hand out.

It is very speculative at this stage as we are still a long way out. I suspect the polls from next September onwards to tell the most. In the meantime, keeping an eye on trends is the way to go.

Godge · 16-01-2015 02:09PM

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/01/14/the-empire-strikes-back-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-paddy-power-red-c-opinion-poll-14th-january-2015/#more-7694

Some additional reading on the implications of the poll.

Quin_Dub · 16-01-2015 02:26PM

Poll Date Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Green Others
Milward Brown Poll 19/05/2014 20 6 21 23 2 27
Euro Election 23/05/2014 22.28 5.3 22.31 19.5 4.9 25.7
Local Election 23/05/2014 24 7.2 25.3 15.2 1.6 26.7
Milward Brown Poll 04/06/2014 20 5 20 26 2 27
Avg Opinion Poll 20 5.5 20.5 24.5 2 27
Avg Vote % 23.14 6.25 23.805 17.35 3.25 26.2
Difference in Performance 16% 14% 16% -29% 63% -3%

Another view of opinion polls..

Table shows the 2 opinion polls immediately before & after the Local/Euro elections and then the actual % of the vote captured in those elections..

Averaging the 2 opinion polls and the 2 votes and then comparing the Vote performance vs. the Opinion polls is quite interesting..

FF/FG/Lab all captured 14-16% more votes than their opinion poll performance suggested , whereas SF captured a whopping 29% less votes than their poll performance..Yet their post election poll result was higher than before the election..

Independents were 3% down , so not a huge gap there..

The Greens performance is skewed by the fact that they are at such a low level and their relatively strong Euro performance.

If that Poll vs. Vote mix was to be replicated in the next GE , SF have a huge problem; as for them to get to a position where they'd be able to form a government as the largest party , they'd need to be polling north of 50% in the opinion polls to put them in line for the 35-40 seats that they'd need to be a realistic Snr. Partner in Government.

BoJack Horseman · 16-01-2015 03:09PM

Its a good post Quin.

Transfer toxicity also hampers the Shinner seat percentage vs poll percentage.

However SF can still maximise their chances by not running multiple candidates in constituancie.

The other parties often handicap themselves by splitting their vote too much.

Quin_Dub · 16-01-2015 03:35PM

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Its a good post Quin.

Transfer toxicity also hampers the Shinner seat percentage vs poll percentage.

However SF can still maximise their chances by not running multiple candidates in constituancie.

The other parties often handicap themselves by splitting their vote too much.

Not sure that 1 candidate per constituency will do it for them..

Look at what happened in the Dublin by-election - Topped the 1st preference but lost out on transfers..

I also think that when SF add more candidates and run in every constituency it will be hard left candidates that they'll squeeze out more than main party ones , particularly in Dublin.

For example , Paul Murphy ,Ruth Copinger & Richard Boyd-Barrett are going to be targeted in a big way by SF to get seats..They'll also go after Joe Higgins old seat.

So that's 3 or 4 seats that they could very well pick up without hurting the incumbent government one bit..

I also think that SF rely on the personality/credentials of the candidate a bit more than FG/FF. That's not necessarily a bad thing insofar as it means that the person gets elected based on the work they've done locally as a Councillor or whatever, whereas you regularly see the "party vote" for FF/FG where a no name (or Family name but no history) candidate gets elected (see the election of sister and daughter of deceased FG TD's in recent times). This is part of the reason why no SF candidate ever brings home a running mate , they get a personal vote , but not a party vote..

alaimacerc · 16-01-2015 05:03PM

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

However SF can still maximise their chances by not running multiple candidates in constituancie.

The other parties often handicap themselves by splitting their vote too much.

Don't see how really applies. What the "traditional" parties do is to run multiple "local strokes for local folks" candidates at each end of a constituency. This sometimes helps because it takes more votes in that area; it sometimes hinders because some people will only vote for that candidate then go home for the cuppa, or else, transfer to other "we need something for this town!" candidates.

SF candidates are toxic to non-SF, but not to other SF. In fact, where they have run multiple candidates (in the North, locals) I bet you see an especially high degree of intra-party transfers. If they thought they'd a shot at taking two seats out of five anywhere, they'd do it, and I'm sure it would hold up, to that extent. Still have the external transfer problem, though.

For Reals · 16-01-2015 05:23PM

Godge wrote: »

Since this poll came out, there has been a load of sniping on this and the other thread about how I am highlighting a poll when supposedly previously I have dissed them. Not surprisingly, most of those sniping are SF supporters....

I was generalising about the usual view by some that these posts carry no weight if topped by Sinn Fein. I wasn't specifically pointing at you.
However you do accuse others with opposing views of sniping and bias. You're hardly the opposite, giving a clear thought out unbiased view, statistics or no. You've a right to your view, unless you're a Fine Gael party member

(and Enda's in a huff) but don't try sell it like its pure logic based on numbers.

Quin_Dub · 16-01-2015 05:25PM

alaimacerc wrote: »

Don't see how really applies. What the "traditional" parties do is to run multiple "local strokes for local folks" candidates at each end of a constituency. This sometimes helps because it takes more votes in that area; it sometimes hinders because some people will only vote for that candidate then go home for the cuppa, or else, transfer to other "we need something for this town!" candidates.

SF candidates are toxic to non-SF, but not to other SF. In fact, where they have run multiple candidates (in the North, locals) I bet you see an especially high degree of intra-party transfers. If they thought they'd a shot at taking two seats out of five anywhere, they'd do it, and I'm sure it would hold up, to that extent. Still have the external transfer problem, though.

They've never taken 2 seats here though , just don't see it happening..

Of their "Big names" only Gerry Adams and Pearse Doherty got a 1st round quota and not much more , so little head-room for a running mate...

In fact , the other "names" - Mary Lou, Aongus O'Snodaigh , Martin Ferris - All got in on the last seat in their constituencies..

I just don't see any place where they'll pick up 2 seats in a constituency...The only potential one is Dublin SW and it'll be Paul Murphy they pick off , not Pat Rabbitte...

oscarBravo · 16-01-2015 05:33PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Another view of opinion polls..

I like visualising data.

Godge · 16-01-2015 05:33PM

alaimacerc wrote: »

Don't see how really applies. What the "traditional" parties do is to run multiple "local strokes for local folks" candidates at each end of a constituency. This sometimes helps because it takes more votes in that area; it sometimes hinders because some people will only vote for that candidate then go home for the cuppa, or else, transfer to other "we need something for this town!" candidates.

SF candidates are toxic to non-SF, but not to other SF. In fact, where they have run multiple candidates (in the North, locals) I bet you see an especially high degree of intra-party transfers. If they thought they'd a shot at taking two seats out of five anywhere, they'd do it, and I'm sure it would hold up, to that extent. Still have the external transfer problem, though.

Had a quick look back at the 2011 general election results. Sinn Fein ran two candidates in three constituencies - Cavan-Monaghan, Carlow-Kilkenny and Mayo.

In Cavan-Monaghan, Caoimhin was elected on the first count with a tiny surplus of 43 votes which was never distributed because it was never material.

In Carlow-Kilkenny John Cassin had 3314 votes on elimination, 1885 of which transferred to his running-mate (57%) which is only ok, nothing spectacular.

In Mayo, Theresa Ruane had 2438 votes when eliminated, and 1428 of these (58.5%) transferred to the other candidate. Again, this was good, but nothing out of the ordinary and other parties have achieved similar or greater transfers.

In Carlow-Kilkenny the last time, Labour transferred at a rate of 52.25% to itself, in Cavan-Monaghan, FG had a transfer rate of 68.9%.

Now I didn't look at other constituencies, merely because SF didn't run double candidates and I didn't look at the locals so things may have changed but I am sure there is someone out there who has done analysis of this.

Godge · 16-01-2015 05:36PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

I like visualising data.

If that pattern repeats itself in the general election, the question may well be asked whether don't knows and don't vote are hiding in the SF and Independent columns in the opinion polls. We will have to wait and see.

alaimacerc · 16-01-2015 06:29PM

Godge wrote: »

Had a quick look back at the 2011 general election results. Sinn Fein ran two candidates in three constituencies - Cavan-Monaghan, Carlow-Kilkenny and Mayo. [...]

Interesting! Very different from the SF of stereotype and Northern pattern. As is the point in the following post, in which they "get the vote out" at a worse rate than the norm. Most curious...

hatrickpatrick · 16-01-2015 06:30PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

I like visualising data.

So going by that, Independents are likely to be close enough to their opinion pollings, while FG are likely to do a little better than their opinion pollings.

I think that will be cold comfort for FG and the rest of the establishment to be honest.

Quin_Dub · 16-01-2015 06:40PM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

So going by that, Independents are likely to be close enough to their opinion pollings, while FG are likely to do a little better than their opinion pollings.

I think that will be cold comfort for FG and the rest of the establishment to be honest.

But that Independent/Other bucket hides a multitude though..

It's not a coherent opposition group - In reality it's 2 or 3 groups on 4%-6% of the poll with "true" independents around 12-14%.

I expect the largest voting block from there will be ~10% of the vote if you were trying to find a group to support a coalition ..

Next election will be messy and I believe we'll have a minority government when the dust settles..

alaimacerc · 16-01-2015 07:01PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I expect the largest voting block from there will be ~10% of the vote if you were trying to find a group to support a coalition ..

Which group, and what'll that be in seats? I'd be surprised if it's even that much. (Unless "misc" is a group.)

Next election will be messy and I believe we'll have a minority government when the dust settles..

It all depends on how much the "independent bucket" disintegrates, and what "unthinkable" combinations the "major" parties are willing to consider.

If SF+FF and FG+Lab are on similar totals, and neither is willing to mix and match, I think it's much easier for the former to form a minority government than the latter as they'd have "lost" the election.

conorh91 · 16-01-2015 07:15PM

alaimacerc wrote: »

I just can't get my head around the idea of GA as An Taoiseach ("revolving" or otherwise).

I don't think that's envisaged by anyone, least of all GA himself. I think he sees himself more as a chairman/ spiritual leader for national republicanism rather than a policymaker. Unlike Micheal Martin, Adams chose not to assume a front bench portfolio.

I think he'll be leader of the next Opposition, then subsequently aim for the Presidency of Ireland, but is unlikely to ever enter Government.

Quin_Dub · 16-01-2015 09:18PM

alaimacerc wrote: »

Which group, and what'll that be in seats? I'd be surprised if it's even that much. (Unless "misc" is a group.)

I'd see a 10% coming from a centre/right combo of Shane Ross et al perhaps or possibly a left combo of AA/WP/SP etc.

Either bunch could be considered as a roughly cohesive voting block..10% of the vote should get something around 12 seats (10% is 16 seats but figure a weaker transfer rate among Indies so 12 seats give or take).

alaimacerc wrote: »

It all depends on how much the "independent bucket" disintegrates, and what "unthinkable" combinations the "major" parties are willing to consider.

If SF+FF and FG+Lab are on similar totals, and neither is willing to mix and match, I think it's much easier for the former to form a minority government than the latter as they'd have "lost" the election.

I can't see SF/FF being the larger group or even comparable , there'll be 10+ seats between them- Combined I see them having 45/50 seats , FG/LB will be above 60 combined

BlutendeRabe · 17-01-2015 02:59AM

Godge wrote: »

Had a quick look back at the 2011 general election results. Sinn Fein ran two candidates in three constituencies - Cavan-Monaghan, Carlow-Kilkenny and Mayo.

In Cavan-Monaghan, Caoimhin was elected on the first count with a tiny surplus of 43 votes which was never distributed because it was never material.

In Carlow-Kilkenny John Cassin had 3314 votes on elimination, 1885 of which transferred to his running-mate (57%) which is only ok, nothing spectacular.

In Mayo, Theresa Ruane had 2438 votes when eliminated, and 1428 of these (58.5%) transferred to the other candidate. Again, this was good, but nothing out of the ordinary and other parties have achieved similar or greater transfers.

In Carlow-Kilkenny the last time, Labour transferred at a rate of 52.25% to itself, in Cavan-Monaghan, FG had a transfer rate of 68.9%.

Now I didn't look at other constituencies, merely because SF didn't run double candidates and I didn't look at the locals so things may have changed but I am sure there is someone out there who has done analysis of this.

Apparently in Cavan O'Caoilean recieved 1600 votes. Had Reilly gotten those she would've been elected ahead of Heather Humphries (margin between them at the last count was 800 votes) while O'Caoliean would've been elected in any case on transfers from other candidates particular Traynor who was based in Monaghan town.
Reilly will probably get the second seat. She's female, young and a sitting Senator. It might be reduced to a four seater but West Cavan which would've been a rather poor area for SF is being moved to Sligo-North Leitrim.

In the case of Carlow-Kilkenny, it was a toss-up to see who would be the stronger candidate. Funchion hasn't a hope in the by-election but she'll be looking to the next GE. Its a fairly realistic target for the party. In fairness the there the transfer rate is ok given the fact that geography is a huge factor and you had a Carlow candidate transferring to a Kilkenny candidate.

In Mayo they threw away a seat by running Ruane and Conway Walsh. IMO they should've ran Gerry Murray as a sole candidate. He was consistent poll topper around Charlestown and east Mayo and would've been a serious threat to O'Mahony.

In the next GE I reckon they might run three in:
Louth (El presidente, Imelda Munster and Thomas Sharkey)
Donegal (Pearse Doherty, Padraig McLochlainn, Finn-Valley based candidate)

They'll run two in:
Dublin South West (Sean Crowe. Not sure about Cathal King.)
Dublin North West (Dessie Ellis and either Noeleen Reilly or Cathleen Carney)
Dublin Bay North (Larry O'Toole & Daire Ni Laoi)
Dublin South Central (Ink Cartridges (bit harsh. He's actually a nice guy) and Criona NiDalaigh (next Lord Mayor I've heard))
Cork North Central (Jonathan O'Brien and possibly someone outside the city)
Kerry (One of the Ferris's and maybe Damian Quigg)
Cavan-Monaghan (CO'C and Reilly)

In the remaining constituencies they'll probably just run one. Exceptions are if they need to add a female candidate to comply with the asinine gender quotas legislation or in the case of Tipperary to avoid a bloodbath at the convention.

alaimacerc · 17-01-2015 03:38AM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I'd see a 10% coming from a centre/right combo of Shane Ross et al perhaps or possibly a left combo of AA/WP/SP etc.

Bit of an important distinction which! Or are you thinking that both will be in that vicinity?

Either bunch could be considered as a roughly cohesive voting block..10% of the vote should get something around 12 seats (10% is 16 seats but figure a weaker transfer rate among Indies so 12 seats give or take).

Don't be fooled by the country's electoral system being called "PR", it's not especially "P".

I can't see SF/FF being the larger group or even comparable , there'll be 10+ seats between them- Combined I see them having 45/50 seats , FG/LB will be above 60 combined

That's not so far off "comparable"! That would be a frighteningly high number of indies/others. If some number of them decide to lurch behind one of the larger parties in the vote for taoiseach, they could be decisive in that sort of scenario, even allowing for their being so diverse as to be incoherent.

Red C Poll

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