Good economic news thread

ardmacha · 09-01-2015 05:07PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

High levels of savings which the banks use to give mortgages? Been there, done that.

In fairness, the Irish situation only really came off the rails when the banks started lending more than the savings which other Irish people had deposited and started lending money taken from the money markets etc.

Saipanne · 09-01-2015 06:01PM

ardmacha wrote: »

In fairness, the Irish situation only really came off the rails when the banks started lending more than the savings which other Irish people had deposited and started lending money taken from the money markets etc.

There's nothing wrong with that, so long as you lend to people who can afford a mortgage.

Alas...

beeno67 · 09-01-2015 06:43PM

ardmacha wrote: »

In fairness, the Irish situation only really came off the rails when the banks started lending more than the savings which other Irish people had deposited and started lending money taken from the money markets etc.

Banks always lend more than the value of deposits

Sand · 09-01-2015 11:16PM

Saipanne wrote: »

There's nothing wrong with that, so long as you lend to people who can afford a mortgage.

Alas...

Yes, the economic crash happened after people stopped paying their mortgage.

That's an interesting insight completely at odds with reality and all available evidence.

Saipanne · 10-01-2015 06:11AM

Sand wrote: »

Yes, the economic crash happened after people stopped paying their mortgage.

That's an interesting insight completely at odds with reality and all available evidence.

lol

Sheldons Brain · 11-01-2015 01:08AM

Great times, altogether, industrial production up one third in a year.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-industrial-production-surges-33pc-yearonyear-30895961.html

and while much of this is multinationals, even locally based firms are up 9%.

it is a pity that the Germans are dragging us down, they should really get their act together
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/german-economy-stutters-as-exports-plunge-30895916.html

Saipanne · 11-01-2015 11:07AM

Those inefficient Germans...

Kermit.de.frog · 12-01-2015 12:43AM

We should demand reforms in Germany if they want to continue sharing this currency with us.

antoobrien · 12-01-2015 08:57AM

Sand wrote: »

Yes, the economic crash happened after people stopped paying their mortgage.

That's an interesting insight completely at odds with reality and all available evidence.

Not entirely true, the recessions started when people started losing their jobs and getting salary cuts. It was at this point that some people stopped paying their mortgages.

smcgiff · 12-01-2015 09:37AM

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0112/671895-state-banks-aib-boi-ptsb/

Looks like bailing out BOI, AIB and PTSB will break even (ish).

So, where does that leave us re the costs borne by the state re the economic crisis. Is it "only" the money pumped into Anglo/INBS approx. €34B.

This has added to our national debt (hopefully SOME deal will be done with this over time), but we're also borrowing money at a lot lower rates which will eventually benefit our total national debt repayments if it goes on long enough.

Where does NAMA/NTMA fit into this - NAMA is recouping debts for us as well - or is that different?

Seeing the thread that it is, is the national debt situation not nearly as bad as first feared? Or is that WAAAY over optimistic (and I know I'm ignoring the internal mortgage crisis that's bubbling along).

FreudianSlippers · 15-01-2015 09:12AM

Sand wrote: »

Yes, the economic crash happened after people stopped paying their mortgage.

That's an interesting insight completely at odds with reality and all available evidence.

Irish bankers tried to copy what the Americans were doing, but forgot all about the credit default swaps and insurance angles. Woops.

Dannyboy83 · 20-01-2015 02:48PM

15,000 new FDI jobs created in 2014.

http://www.amcham.ie/1192/15000-new-fdi-jobs-created-in-2014

IDA Ireland has reported a strong performance in 2014 with the creation of over 15,000 new jobs. When job losses were taken into account, the net increase in employment was over 7,000, one of the highest net levels of job creation in a decade. (Full IDA statement)

Total employment in FDI in Irelande now stands at almost 175,000 people, the highest level in the history of IDA Ireland.

There were 197 investments in 2014, equating to a 20% increase on 2013. There was a notable rise in new name investment, with 88 new name investors in 2014, equating to a 13% increase on 2013.

Among the leading investments secured during the year were Chamber members such as Amazon, Bristol Myers Squibb, Fidelity, LinkedIn, Survey Monkey, Air Bnb, PayPal, Johnson & Johnson, West Pharmaceuticals, Zendesk, Adroll and New Relic. (Latest Investments>>)

Commenting on the outlook for 2015, IDA Ireland CEO Martin Shanahan said: "Based on the immediate IDA pipeline, covering the first quarter of 2015, we are optimistic about the future flow of investment into Ireland. In relation to the remainder of the year we are cautiously optimistic Ireland is in a good position to win significant business across a range of sectors."

Dave! · 20-01-2015 03:25PM

Are there stats on the kinds of jobs that have been created over the last, say, 3 years? The salaries, etc.

From following announcements in the news they seem to always be mostly in tech companies, either indigenous startups or else multi-nationals. Not necessarily big salary positions, but pretty good jobs within good companies.

But there seems to be a meme around that the jobs that are being created are all part-time, minimum wage, Jobbridge, etc.

Also, if there are in fact a lot of part-time, minimum wage jobs being created, does that not suggest that the retail sector is recovering, hiring, etc.? I would have thought that that's where those kind of jobs are most common. Hardly something to be apologetic about.

Presumably it's the likes of trades, construction, and financial services(?), that are lacking jobs at the moment?

A lot of assumptions in there! Any good summaries floating about of the jobs stats?

Kermit.de.frog · 20-01-2015 03:35PM

The rise in income tax receipts suggests the new jobs can not be that low paid tbh unless current workers are getting large pay increases.

everdead.ie · 21-01-2015 06:50PM

Dave! wrote: »

Are there stats on the kinds of jobs that have been created over the last, say, 3 years? The salaries, etc.

From following announcements in the news they seem to always be mostly in tech companies, either indigenous startups or else multi-nationals. Not necessarily big salary positions, but pretty good jobs within good companies.

But there seems to be a meme around that the jobs that are being created are all part-time, minimum wage, Jobbridge, etc.

Also, if there are in fact a lot of part-time, minimum wage jobs being created, does that not suggest that the retail sector is recovering, hiring, etc.? I would have thought that that's where those kind of jobs are most common. Hardly something to be apologetic about.

Presumably it's the likes of trades, construction, and financial services(?), that are lacking jobs at the moment?

A lot of assumptions in there! Any good summaries floating about of the jobs stats?

I think there would be a significant amount of jobs created out of the tourism industry in the last year, which is known to be a low paying industry.

That said people don't like to brag about good jobs and good pay not PC or fashionable.

Sand · 25-01-2015 01:12AM

antoobrien wrote: »

Not entirely true, the recessions started when people started losing their jobs and getting salary cuts. It was at this point that some people stopped paying their mortgages.

Agreed - I was being sarcastic with regards to the point made there was nothing wrong with banks lending recklessly so long as people could afford to repay the debt. Its a pretty dumb statement.

Employed people in a booming economy can afford to repay their debts. Unemployed people in a recession cant. I was highlighting the stupidity of Irish banks recklessly lending on the assumption that the good times would never end. On the inherent assumption that the Celtic Tiger was the new normal. After a recession hits, after people lose their jobs and cant find new ones - of course it follows they cant repay the debts they took on when employed.

I must admit, I never studied the balance sheets of Irish banks prior to 2007-2008. I don't work in the Irish banks, or the Central bank, or the then Irish Financial Regulator and I had and have my own job to do. But even a thick witted, moronic, mentally challenged twit ought to have been able spot the risk behind the frankly amazing expansion of credit fuelled by the Irish banks. The stats and graphs showing expansion of credit as the Irish banks blindly chased market share with 110% mortgages are *almost* unbelievable. All conventional banking wisdom dictated that a crisis after such rapid expansion was merely a matter of time - and very short time at that. The primary culprit for the economic mismanagement and collapse (in the domestic sense) are the Irish banks, and the civil/public service who were supposed to be watching them. Not the feckless eejits who borrowed more than they could afford to repay after they lost their jobs.

Sheldons Brain · 25-01-2015 02:51AM

Sand wrote: »

Agreed - I was being sarcastic with regards to the point made there was nothing wrong with banks lending recklessly so long as people could afford to repay the debt. Its a pretty dumb statement.

Employed people in a booming economy can afford to repay their debts. Unemployed people in a recession cant. I was highlighting the stupidity of Irish banks recklessly lending on the assumption that the good times would never end. On the inherent assumption that the Celtic Tiger was the new normal. After a recession hits, after people lose their jobs and cant find new ones - of course it follows they cant repay the debts they took on when employed.

I must admit, I never studied the balance sheets of Irish banks prior to 2007-2008. I don't work in the Irish banks, or the Central bank, or the then Irish Financial Regulator and I had and have my own job to do. But even a thick witted, moronic, mentally challenged twit ought to have been able spot the risk behind the frankly amazing expansion of credit fuelled by the Irish banks. The stats and graphs showing expansion of credit as the Irish banks blindly chased market share with 110% mortgages are *almost* unbelievable. All conventional banking wisdom dictated that a crisis after such rapid expansion was merely a matter of time - and very short time at that. The primary culprit for the economic mismanagement and collapse (in the domestic sense) are the Irish banks, and the civil/public service who were supposed to be watching them. Not the feckless eejits who borrowed more than they could afford to repay after they lost their jobs.

Ah yes, the old excuse that the barman shouldn't have served me. And the public service caused this,when only 0.1% of them had anything to do with regulation and they were following the policies of a government elected mainly by people in the private sector.

Sand · 25-01-2015 11:08PM

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

Ah yes, the old excuse that the barman shouldn't have served me. And the public service caused this,when only 0.1% of them had anything to do with regulation and they were following the policies of a government elected mainly by people in the private sector.

No its the old "Barman should know his own business". A barman who runs his pub into the ground cant blame the customers.

A person taking on a loan they cant pay back is their problem. A bank lending like a fool rapidly became everyone's problem. There are *very* simple rules a banks follow to ensure they're not taking on too much risk. Irish banks broke every single one of them in glorious style. Like I said, when you look over the figures, the rapid growth of lending by Irish banks is horrific.

If anyone was doing their jobs in the banks, CBI or IFSRA or the DoF it should have been clear as day a problem was growing as early as 2003-2004. The public service were asleep at the wheel - they cant dodge their responsibility.

K-9 · 26-01-2015 12:10PM

Sand wrote: »

No its the old "Barman should know his own business". A barman who runs his pub into the ground cant blame the customers.

A person taking on a loan they cant pay back is their problem. A bank lending like a fool rapidly became everyone's problem. There are *very* simple rules a banks follow to ensure they're not taking on too much risk. Irish banks broke every single one of them in glorious style. Like I said, when you look over the figures, the rapid growth of lending by Irish banks is horrific.

If anyone was doing their jobs in the banks, CBI or IFSRA or the DoF it should have been clear as day a problem was growing as early as 2003-2004. The public service were asleep at the wheel - they cant dodge their responsibility.

There were plenty of warnings from the ICB. They warned banks and Credit Unions about CU loans used as deposits as far back as 1998.

Warnings about 100% mortgages, using lodger income in affordability ratios and the huge increase in income multipliers. They might have warned about 35/40 year mortgages, not sure.

I'd say many were concerned about what was happening but there seemed to be a lack of teeth or any follow up. There wasn't any political will to do anything about it, which on top of the group think and general avarice going on made it much more difficult for regulators to do anything about it!

It wasn't just property related stuff, we'd an economy based on offering the laxest tax rules possible for multinationals and we were hoaring the IFSC abroad for its light touch regulation!

ardmacha · 26-01-2015 03:42PM

K-9 wrote: »

I'd say many were concerned about what was happening but there seemed to be a lack of teeth or any follow up. There wasn't any political will to do anything about it, which on top of the group think and general avarice going on made it much more difficult for regulators to do anything about it!

To use the barman analogy above, this was a bar in which the drinkers were voting for the rules on when people should be refused drink.

chopper6 · 26-01-2015 04:18PM

Sand wrote: »

= The primary culprit for the economic mismanagement and collapse (in the domestic sense) are the Irish banks, and the civil/public service who were supposed to be watching them. Not the feckless eejits who borrowed more than they could afford to repay after they lost their jobs.

What a load of horsehiite.

Thats like saying it's not a criminal's fault he commited a crime,it's his teachers' fault for not bringing him up properly.

I was around during all that madness and i had a friend who bought THREE properties by levering his original apartment and by getting his father to "go Guarantor"...he wanted in on property as an "investment" that he knew nothing about,simply because everybody else is doing it.

Fools in the Indo and RTE talking about "property ladders" and "bulgarian overseas investments"...who was going to stop them? The Civil Service?:rolleyes:

What a load of nonsense...people need to take responsibility for thier own actions,especially when it involves taking out mortages that they cant afford to pay...and to my mind they *should* be forced to pay back.

If nothing else it might teach them a little bit of sense for the future.

AlekSmart · 26-01-2015 09:48PM

chopper6 wrote: »

What a load of horsehiite.

Thats like saying it's not a criminal's fault he commited a crime,it's his teachers' fault for not bringing him up properly.

I was around during all that madness and i had a friend who bought THREE properties by levering his original apartment and by getting his father to "go Guarantor"...he wanted in on property as an "investment" that he knew nothing about,simply because everybody else is doing it.

Fools in the Indo and RTE talking about "property ladders" and "bulgarian overseas investments"...who was going to stop them? The Civil Service?:rolleyes:

What a load of nonsense...people need to take responsibility for thier own actions,especially when it involves taking out mortages that they cant afford to pay...and to my mind they *should* be forced to pay back.

If nothing else it might teach them a little bit of sense for the future.

So many people,otherwise of sound mind & body,went "Guarantor" for familial loan transactions during the late 1990's and up until 2008..

"Going Guarantor" was an accepted part of a Partents/Grandparents familial duties in certain circles,and not alone the nouveau riche either...the early 21st Centure Irish landscape is dotted with the worried remains of many a provided-for retirement thrown on to lower-rungs of a childs property ladder...;)

Sand · 26-01-2015 09:57PM

K-9 wrote: »

There were plenty of warnings from the ICB. They warned banks and Credit Unions about CU loans used as deposits as far back as 1998.

But those warnings were just one or two line caveats stuck into the back of reports saying that everything was grand. As you say, nothing came of the back of them - if the ICB really it was concerned, it and the DoF were not helpless bystanders. They could and should have co-ordinated themselves to impose limits on the banks and take the heat out of the fiscal policy of the era.

They didn't. They failed in their duty to the citizens who pay their wages.

@chopper6

I was around during all that madness and i had a friend...

Ah right, so the collapse of Ango-Irish was the fault of your friend and his three properties?

Better get on down to the inquiry then and tell them they need to call your buddy in rather than wasting their time with the central bank, ministers and the ECB.

:rolleyes:

K-9 · 27-01-2015 12:10PM

Sand wrote: »

But those warnings were just one or two line caveats stuck into the back of reports saying that everything was grand. As you say, nothing came of the back of them - if the ICB really it was concerned, it and the DoF were not helpless bystanders. They could and should have co-ordinated themselves to impose limits on the banks and take the heat out of the fiscal policy of the era.

They didn't. They failed in their duty to the citizens who pay their wages.

But again, if the ICB and DoF don't have the tools or the political will from the top, what can they do? There was far too much of a cosey club back slapping each other about how great they were, politicians, developers and bankers especially, be grand they said!

To bring it back on topic, it's essential we learn from the mistakes of the bubble. Unless the ICB and regulators get the teeth needed they are pretty pointless watchdogs.

draiochtanois · 27-01-2015 02:04PM

This post has been deleted.

Sand · 27-01-2015 08:44PM

K-9 wrote: »

But again, if the ICB and DoF don't have the tools or the political will from the top, what can they do? There was far too much of a cosey club back slapping each other about how great they were, politicians, developers and bankers especially, be grand they said!

To bring it back on topic, it's essential we learn from the mistakes of the bubble. Unless the ICB and regulators get the teeth needed they are pretty pointless watchdogs.

But the CBI and the DoF did have the tools. Honohan with his 20% deposit rules is simply using the same tools available to his predecessors.

The political will from the top is irrelevant. The CBI and the DoF are not elected - they are "jobs for life" roles for the specific purpose of immunising them from electoral/political pressures. They get huge paycheques and golden pensions to protect them from bribery.

The CBI and the DOF simply lacked the courage to do what their roles and power demanded of them. It wasn't *just* the politicians in a cosy club. It was the gamekeepers and wardens too. Hence they cant dodge responsibility and claim it was all the politicians fault - it was their fault. They system acknowledges there will be political pressure - It was their job to watch the banks and the economy. And they failed. Utterly, totally and wilfully.

Godge · 03-02-2015 04:34PM

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0203/677506-centralbank/

"The Central Bank has raised its growth forecast for 2015 to 3.7% of GDP.

The bank had previously expected growth for the year ahead to be 3.4%.

For 2016, the Central Bank says it expects growth to continue at a similar level and is forecasting GDP growth of 3.8%"

All of this will be of great help in increasing income tax revenues, reducing social welfare expenditure and bringing down the debt/GDP ratio.

What is better is that it is steady growth.

ardmacha · 03-02-2015 06:09PM

Godge wrote:

All of this will be of great help in increasing income tax revenues, reducing social welfare expenditure and bringing down the debt/GDP ratio.

Also on the same RTE page

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0203/677595-exchequer-returns-january/

The Exchequer received almost €4.19bn during January, according to the Department of Finance, up 12.3% (€460m) on the same month last year.

The Central Bank estimate may be conservative (as it should be).

Godge · 03-02-2015 06:28PM

ardmacha wrote: »

Also on the same RTE page

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0203/677595-exchequer-returns-january/

The Exchequer received almost €4.19bn during January, according to the Department of Finance, up 12.3% (€460m) on the same month last year.

The Central Bank estimate may be conservative (as it should be).

Those are incredible figures.

Income tax up 4% y-o-y after the cuts in the budget implies a growth rate in the domestic economy of around 5% (stripping out the distortion effects of the MNCs.). People should be feeling this good news in their pockets now as pay increases, it can't just be new employment.

Godge · 04-02-2015 03:24PM

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0204/677759-cso-live-register/

An so it continues, unemployment down even further to 10.5%.

We are now down 20% from the peak.

It is now very difficult to argue against the idea that the domestic economy has started a strong recovery.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0204/677753-eircom-jobs-apprentice-graduate/

Aprrenticeships back.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0204/677694-services-pmi/

"The country's services sector expanded at near its fastest pace in eight years in January, " Wow.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0204/677716-euro-zone-pmi/

"The euro zone private sector grew at its fastest pace in six months in January as firms reduced prices at the steepest rate in nearly five years, a business survey showed today. "

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0204/677799-euro-zone-retail-sales/

"Retail sales in the euro zone were the highest in almost eight years in December as Christmas shoppers splashed out on presents, food and fuel, likely encouraged by falling prices in the bloc. "

Meanwhile over on the Eurozone and Greek threads, Chicken Little will keep telling us the sky is falling down:).

Good economic news thread

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