Good economic news thread

Sheldons Brain · 24-12-2014 01:49AM

Sand wrote:

Traffic growth is higher on weekends than weekdays so if there's a link to economic activity or employment its not apparent.

If you look at the NRA website traffic is up pretty much everywhere. It could be affected by somewhat lower fuel prices, but it suggests that people have somewhere to go.

M4 8.3%
M1 4.1%
M7 2.4%
M11 27.0%
N18 2.0%

nice_guy80 · 24-12-2014 05:30PM

Time to start upgrading roads if you ask me.

Huge need for simple dual carriageways between the likes of Mullingar/Sligo

Godge · 24-12-2014 09:14PM

Sand wrote: »

Unemployment going down is good. But I'll start celebrating when unemployment is down to 4-5%.

A growing economy is the norm so its not shocking to accept. It requires a huge natural disaster, global crisis or chronic mismanagement to shrink an economy. Especially when central banks are literally running out of people to give money to. Leave an economy alone - do absolutely nothing, and it will grow.

What I'd object to is the idea that the GDP figures we're seeing reflect anything much useful about the Irish economy.

Simple question: why is the Irish economy growing at 5.7% and why didn't anyone spot this apparent economic miracle 10 months ago when the European commission predicted a growth rate of 1.7%?

On the one hand you say that a growing economy is the norm so its not shocking to accept but yet you will not celebrate the unemployment figure which is now down below the long-term average?

AlekSmart · 25-12-2014 02:08PM

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Time to start upgrading roads if you ask me.

Huge need for simple dual carriageways Tolled Motorway between the likes of Mullingar/Sligo

FYP.....;)

murphaph · 25-12-2014 09:41PM

4% unemployment is considered in most countries to mean "a job for anyone that wants one" or "no unemployment" because there will always be a few people who've been laid off or whatever and are between jobs and of course the cohort who do not want to work.

I think we have grounds to be optimistic but I am pessimistic because we don't seem to have learned all that much from the crisis. Many systemic problems simply haven't been tackled.

Saipanne · 25-12-2014 11:59PM

murphaph wrote: »

4% unemployment is considered in most countries to mean "a job for anyone that wants one" or "no unemployment" because there will always be a few people who've been laid off or whatever and are between jobs and of course the cohort who do not want to work.

I think we have grounds to be optimistic but I am pessimistic because we don't seem to have learned all that much from the crisis. Many systemic problems simply haven't been tackled.

Like what?

Godge · 26-12-2014 12:45AM

murphaph wrote: »

4% unemployment is considered in most countries to mean "a job for anyone that wants one" or "no unemployment" because there will always be a few people who've been laid off or whatever and are between jobs and of course the cohort who do not want to work.

I think we have grounds to be optimistic but I am pessimistic because we don't seem to have learned all that much from the crisis. Many systemic problems simply haven't been tackled.

We are now below the long-term average unemployment in Ireland. OK, that average went up because of the last few years but weirdly, statistically we are now above average.

hfallada · 26-12-2014 06:56PM

Sand wrote: »

Unemployment going down is good. But I'll start celebrating when unemployment is down to 4-5%.

Simple question: why is the Irish economy growing at 5.7% and why didn't anyone spot this apparent economic miracle 10 months ago when the European commission predicted a growth rate of 1.7%?

But its incredible how quickly our unemployed rate has fallen. It took something like nearly 15 years for unemployment to drop to this level in the recession of the 80s/90s. The recovery from this recession how been fairly rapid.

The European Commission tends to be very conservative on their estimates. The same with the federal reserve in the US. The US economy grew twice as quickly as estimate in the 3rd quarter of this year. These independent bodies gain nothing from altering figures like most people on this like to suggest

Sand · 26-12-2014 08:05PM

Godge wrote: »

On the one hand you say that a growing economy is the norm so its not shocking to accept but yet you will not celebrate the unemployment figure which is now down below the long-term average?

I'll never celebrate 11% unemployment. Failure is not success, and failure is not good enough.

Godge wrote: »

We are now below the long-term average unemployment in Ireland. OK, that average went up because of the last few years but weirdly, statistically we are now above average.

What you're highlighting is that economic failure is the norm for Ireland. That's not good enough. The question we should be asking is why is failure the norm in Ireland and what do we need to do to make success the norm.

murphaph wrote: »

I think we have grounds to be optimistic but I am pessimistic because we don't seem to have learned all that much from the crisis. Many systemic problems simply haven't been tackled.

Yep, the worst possible outcome of the past 7-8 years for Irish people is minimal reform of the structures that caused complete failure, whilst being kept afloat by wider Eurozone policies. So much for moral hazard.

hfallada wrote: »

But its incredible how quickly our unemployed rate has fallen. It took something like nearly 15 years for unemployment to drop to this level in the recession of the 80s/90s. The recovery from this recession how been fairly rapid.

Its been almost a decade and I wouldn't yet class it as a recovery when we have a double figure unemployment rate. And we're still 11-12% below the GDP of the Celtic Tiger.

Saipanne · 26-12-2014 08:49PM

As the economy improves, you can feel the indignation slipping through their fingers, can't you?

They truly dread the day when the economy returns to normal, for they will have nothing to whinge about.

AlekSmart · 26-12-2014 10:17PM

Saipanne wrote: »

As the economy improves, you can feel the indignation slipping through their fingers, can't you?
They truly dread the day when the economy returns to normal, for they will have nothing to whinge about.

It is a very odd manifestation of our culture indeed...

We came SO close to meltdown....SO close to experiencing REAL austerity,poverty and hardship...and boy does it grate to see and hear such communal outcry,for policies which are virtually guaranteed to bring us directly back to that starting-line.

Luckily,that large lumpen grouping which makes up "the electorate",in recent times,appear to have regained their composure,and having done their sums,realized that they won't in fact be bankrupted by Water Charges at all :eek:

Whilst the economy will revert to "Normal",I suggest that "Normality" will not be what we've been used to,particularly as everybody having to pay for stuff,has not been a core element of our system up to now.

It will be interesting to see what will become of the Paul Murphy's,Mick Wallace's,Ming Flanagan's and the rest over the next 5 years....perhaps it'll be case of "Where are they now"....?

Dannyboy83 · 27-12-2014 10:19AM

Saipanne wrote: »

As the economy improves, you can feel the indignation slipping through their fingers, can't you?

They truly dread the day when the economy returns to normal, for they will have nothing to whinge about.

There is plenty left to whinge about, lol!

I'm trying not to comment negatively on this thread, Fair play to Godge for starting a positive thread, there isn't enough of it on boards.

But still there is negative and then there is realistic - I definitely think the economy is improving, but I don't believe it's returning to "returning to normal".

For example:
I got an xmas bonus for the first time in years.
It was halved by tax basically.
From the remainder I paid my property tax and put money aside for the water tax.
So basically the entire thing is gone on tax & I didn't spend a cent this xmas!
(And I consider myself one of the lucky ones because I actually got a bonus )

I'm actually not too bothered by this to be honest, I just see it like protection money, pay or face the consequences.
Still, it's not what I would consider normal.

Godge · 27-12-2014 10:58AM

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

There is plenty left to whinge about, lol!

I'm trying not to comment negatively on this thread, Fair play to Godge for starting a positive thread, there isn't enough of it on boards.

But still there is negative and then there is realistic - I definitely think the economy is improving, but I don't believe it's returning to "returning to normal".

For example:
I got an xmas bonus for the first time in years.
It was halved by tax basically.
From the remainder I paid my property tax and put money aside for the water tax.
So basically the entire thing is gone on tax & I didn't spend a cent this xmas!
(And I consider myself one of the lucky ones because I actually got a bonus )

I'm actually not too bothered by this to be honest, I just see it like protection money, pay or face the consequences.
Still, it's not what I would consider normal.

The only way around this was hinted at by Alexsmart in his last post.

For too long we have had a situation whereby some people paid no income tax at all. As the most visible of a person's contribution to society, (remember unlike American sales taxes, VAT, excise duty etc is not on your normal shopping bill) it creates a bond with society that shows everybody contributes. That has been lost in Ireland and we have seen the rise of the entitlement culture with people believing they are entitled to everything without making any kind of contribution and that it should be paid for by somebody else or the magic money tree. The water charges issue is a clear example of this as it is the first visible charge that many people will have to pay, the LPT is chargeable on less numbers of people.

Even if it is only a rate of 1%, income tax should be payable by everyone on all income. The USC was an attempt to do this but even then, they have exempted the first 15k.

murphaph · 27-12-2014 12:43PM

Saipanne wrote: »

Like what?

50 quid to see a GP.
Solicitors are a law unto themselves and "self regulated" to boot.
No real change to how our electoral system works.
Obvious resistance to sensible ideas like requiring a 20% deposit when seeking a mortgage.
No political will to develop a select few cities for growth, rather spread the butter thinly everywhere so nothing meaningful gets done anywhere.
Still makes financial sense for families to remain on benefits compared to taking minimum wage jobs....should never ever be more attractive to do this.

No changes to child care to benefit working parents. Essentially one wage will pay the childminder which is crazy stuff.

Still flogging dead horses like Irish and religion in schools. It's almost 2015...if people want their kids to learn about superstitious cults they can do it at home. Irish should be optional.

Gardaí also a law unto themselves. Very poor police force when compared to almost any UK force. Just very unprofessional. Sure they solve murders and other big stuff but they don't give a fiddlers about the stuff that affects people day in day out.

Irish water...good idea to charge for water based on usage but as usual a disaster of an implementation.

Still no proper integrated fare system on our public transport networks. This stuff was solved decades ago elsewhere.

John.Icy · 27-12-2014 12:56PM

I just don't get why people who are unhappy with current times, policies, figures etc keep coming into this thread to put any good news down and start debates over it. There's enough of the negative crap and debating over recovery and such in every other thread.

If you aren't happy, use some damn brain cells and stay out of a thread entitled ''GOOD economic new thread'' if you know it's going to aggravate you.

Baffled me months ago and baffles me still. Start a Bad news thread, for all I care.

Saipanne · 27-12-2014 01:01PM

murphaph wrote: »

50 quid etc

I agree with pretty much everything. Thanks.

Sand · 27-12-2014 01:16PM

Saipanne wrote: »

As the economy improves, you can feel the indignation slipping through their fingers, can't you?

They truly dread the day when the economy returns to normal, for they will have nothing to whinge about.

I remember a similar post back in July 2012 in the immediate aftermath of the historic "bank debt deal" Ireland had apparently won from the rest of the Eurozone. I questioned what exactly it was Ireland was supposed to have secured, and expressed doubt that it would amount to anything more than spin. Some other posters expressed similar sentiments to yours above, with one poster in particular informing me that if I wasn't overwhelmed with joy it meant that I didn't understand what had been won by Ireland at the talks. It makes me smile even now.

The point I'm trying to make is for the last 7 or 8 years I've been listening to irrationally optimistic people that resent realism saying "Its not as bad as those doom mongers are making out! Soft landing!", then I listened to "TINA! TINA!" and for most of the last 5 years I've been listening to "We're doing a great job! Everythings going to be great next year!"

I asked a simple question a few posts back - someone to give me a simple explanation of why Ireland's GDP is growing at 5.7% and why economic forecasts missed it only a few months ago? Back in Q4 2013, Ibec predicted 2.8% GDP growth - out by 100%. As recently as June 2014 the IMF predicted 1.7% GDP growth - out by 200%. In April 2014 the Central Bank predicted 2% GDP growth - out by 135%.

People so far seem unable to put forward any coherent rationale for it. My point about faulty and misused statistics blinding people from a real appreciation for the economy is demonstrated.

Saipanne · 27-12-2014 01:19PM

Sand wrote: »

I remember a similar post back in July 2012 in the immediate aftermath of the historic "bank debt deal" Ireland had apparently won from the rest of the Eurozone. I questioned what exactly it was Ireland was supposed to have secured, and expressed doubt that it would amount to anything more than spin. Some other posters expressed similar sentiments to yours above, with one poster in particular informing me that if I wasn't overwhelmed with joy it meant that I didn't understand what had been won by Ireland at the talks. It makes me smile even now.

The point I'm trying to make is for the last 7 or 8 years I've been listening to irrationally optimistic people that resent realism saying "Its not as bad as those doom mongers are making out! Soft landing!", then I listened to "TINA! TINA!" and for most of the last 5 years I've been listening to "We're doing a great job! Everythings going to be great next year!"

I asked a simple question a few posts back - someone to give me a simple explanation of why Ireland's GDP is growing at 5.7% and why economic forecasts missed it only a few months ago? Back in Q4 2013, Ibec predicted 2.8% GDP growth - out by 100%. As recently as June 2014 the IMF predicted 1.7% GDP growth - out by 200%. In April 2014 the Central Bank predicted 2% GDP growth - out by 135%.

People so far seem unable to put forward any coherent rationale for it. My point about faulty and misused statistics blinding people from a real appreciation for the economy is demonstrated.

Economic forecasts are inaccurate shocka.

Sand · 27-12-2014 01:21PM

John.Icy wrote: »

I just don't get why people who are unhappy with current times, policies, figures etc keep coming into this thread to put any good news down and start debates over it. There's enough of the negative crap and debating over recovery and such in every other thread.

If you aren't happy, use some damn brain cells and stay out of a thread entitled ''GOOD economic new thread'' if you know it's going to aggravate you.

Baffled me months ago and baffles me still. Start a Bad news thread, for all I care.

Its a discussion forum - if you create a thread or a post here you better be able to discuss it. If you need some sort of "safe zone" where a viewpoint cannot be discussed or criticised, it doesn't say much for the viewpoint.

From the charter:

"Please remember that we are not a blog, a news feed nor an announcement forum - if you are not willing to discuss what you post, then please don't post it. Thread will be locked and posters may face a sanction for repeatedly breaking this rule."

"This forum is not a newsdump, blog or somewhere to post copy & pastes from other sites. "

Sand · 27-12-2014 01:22PM

Saipanne wrote: »

Economic forecasts are inaccurate shocka.

Inaccurate by whole orders of magnitude? If the economic growth is based on real activity why cant the forecasters spot the causes of activity even 6 months ago, half way through 2014?

Saipanne · 27-12-2014 01:22PM

Sand wrote: »

Its a discussion forum - if you create a thread or a post here you better be able to discuss it. If you need some sort of "safe zone" where a viewpoint cannot be discussed or criticised, it doesn't say much for the viewpoint.

From the charter:

"Please remember that we are not a blog, a news feed nor an announcement forum - if you are not willing to discuss what you post, then please don't post it. Thread will be locked and posters may face a sanction for repeatedly breaking this rule."

"This forum is not a newsdump, blog or somewhere to post copy & pastes from other sites. "

Is there a rule regarding backseat modding?

Saipanne · 27-12-2014 01:23PM

Sand wrote: »

Inaccurate by whole orders of magnitude? If the economic growth is based on real activity why cant the forecasters spot the causes of activity even 6 months ago, half way through 2014?

Because it's pseudoscience.

Sand · 27-12-2014 01:26PM

Saipanne wrote: »

Because it's pseudoscience.

But we should get excited about "pseudoscience" GDP figures?

Saipanne · 27-12-2014 01:27PM

Sand wrote: »

But we should get excited about "pseudoscience" GDP figures?

Forecasting is not the same as counting. I'm sure you know this, but you pretend not to. So why do you pretend?

Sand · 27-12-2014 01:38PM

Saipanne wrote: »

Forecasting is not the same as counting. I'm sure you know this, but you pretend not to. So why do you pretend?

Its an economic ("pseudo-science") statistic, that's essentially made up with most of the ("pseudo-science") arguments being what should be included and how it should be calculated. There's nothing to physically count. It's all "pseudo-science" .

Saipanne · 27-12-2014 01:39PM

Sand wrote: »

Its an economic ("pseudo-science") statistic, that's essentially made up with most of the ("pseudo-science") arguments being what should be included and how it should be calculated. There's nothing to physically count. It's all "pseudo-science" .

Sure it is, Sand. Sure it is.

Voltex · 27-12-2014 10:04PM

Saipanne wrote: »

Because it's pseudoscience.

Praxeology is a much better word for economics

beeno67 · 27-12-2014 10:33PM

Sand wrote: »

I asked a simple question a few posts back - someone to give me a simple explanation of why Ireland's GDP is growing at 5.7% and why economic forecasts missed it only a few months ago? Back in Q4 2013, Ibec predicted 2.8% GDP growth - out by 100%. As recently as June 2014 the IMF predicted 1.7% GDP growth - out by 200%. In April 2014 the Central Bank predicted 2% GDP growth - out by 135%.

People so far seem unable to put forward any coherent rationale for it. My point about faulty and misused statistics blinding people from a real appreciation for the economy is demonstrated.

Perhaps you need to show the figures you are talking about? We don't know 2014 GDP figures yet, only estimates and forecasts.

So are you complaining that not all the forecasts are the same or that forecasts are changing over the year?

You seem to be looking at partial year growth and comparing it to full year estimates. Perhaps you might be interested to know that apples and oranges are also different

Saipanne · 27-12-2014 10:43PM

Voltex wrote: »

Praxeology is a much better word for economics

I think pseudoscience covers it well.

Godge · 28-12-2014 12:44AM

Sand wrote: »

Inaccurate by whole orders of magnitude? If the economic growth is based on real activity why cant the forecasters spot the causes of activity even 6 months ago, half way through 2014?

Did any forecast for 2008 predict the extent of the collapse? No.

They get it wrong on the way up and the way down as the trend changes.

This time there is plenty of hard evidence - congested roads, construction starting again, employment rising, unemployment falling - to go with the statistics of economic growth.

One thing I do believe is that the recovery is going to be entirely city-based. Over the last decade Ireland has missed the huge trend happening worldwide which is the rise of cities and increased urbanisation. The day of a factory for every town is now gone and outside Dublin, Limerick, Cork and maybe Galway and Waterford, don't expect to see any recovery for another three to four years.

Good economic news thread

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