FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

Thanks maquiladora for the great charts you post during the year, Happy Christmas

Thanks maq for your valuable input - Happy Christmas to you and yours :-) here's to a snowy new year!!

maquiladora wrote: »

Thanks. Won't get a chance to post much or check the models after this morning until after Christmas. Have a good one, and hopefully we end up with something interesting!

Thanks Maq for all your updates. You are always the voice of reason when we all get excited about a chart on the models. Have a great Xmas and hopefully by your return we'll have charts with snow potential down south.

Ha, the GFS deep in FI !



And the P, again deep in FI

The Peanut wrote: »

I know it has been said many times but your username always brings a smile to me face. Happy Christmas.:D

Me too. No matter how many times I read it, it always gives a little involuntary snigger!

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

I'll post some charts, admittedly I may be pretty drunk but hey, thats gonna make it more interesting right !

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The 12z GFS P is showing some snow for all within the next 4 days. Threads have been started for less!

See

Enlarged it for you

numilus cimbus wrote: »

According to John Holmes on netweather,the ECM postage stamps favour cool zonal for the foreseeable
They are not always right but I'm growing weary of looking for snow now because frankly ,there are no great signs
Populated urban areas will only see rain from this next system,intuition and past experience tells me that


" Btw, the latest ec32 looks cool zonal weeks 3 and 4 on the mean/anomolys with not too much sign of any blocking though there could be some clusters
I would agree with that idea
The anomaly charts, well the NOAA 8-15 day chart,suggests this. Certainly no sign of any marked northern outbreak either from the NW or NE if that is a correct portrayal of the upper pattern into the New Year?
link below
.cpc.noaa....10day/500mb.php "

Which would more or less tally with the unofficial uk met office winter outlook posted last month by Ian f, which was; cool zonal interludes, with no severe cold expected before February, if at all.
i'm not well up on the strat forecast, but judging by those who seem to be, no ssw is going to occur before we are well into January, despite previous suggestions that a ssw might have taken place right about now or into early January.
All this means we are unlikely to see anything other than a continuation of polar maritime or brief northerlies before the atlantic takes over again. On some of the models we see that is indicated to happen in the new year, on others we don't, if any mlb does develop it is unlikely to last long with the pv showing signs of going back home to Greenland. personally at this stage a night of accumulting snow will do me:) Vilian's video was very funny and sobering in that regard. I'm off to Greenland:D

I would love to see a model that builds in elements of probability based on the liklihood of specific conditions in certain geographic locations. I'm not sure how the algorithm could work. Maybe if their model predicted a -12 with precipitation event on a long / lat that statistically doesn't get those conditions regularly, it'd shift it by x North and East or west etc.

It seems year after year we have a lot of scientists and computers producing models which arent of any use until +96. It's meteorological heresy I gather to interfere with the generated forecasts like that but wouldn't it be more useful as a more reliable long term cast to add probability and an element of artificial intelligence into the mix?

At least then we wouldn't all be looking at charts that have little or no chance of occurring. I think it'd be a good step forward albeit a very expensive one to develop.

nacho libre wrote: »

Which would more or less tally with the unofficial uk met office winter outlook posted last month by Ian f, which was; cool zonal interludes, with no severe cold expected before February, if at all.
i'm not well up on the strat forecast, but judging by those who seem to be, no ssw is going to occur before we are well into January, despite previous suggestions that a ssw might have taken place right about now or into early January.
All this means we are unlikely to see anything other than a continuation of polar maritime or brief northerlies before the atlantic takes over again. On some of the models we see that is indicated to happen in the new year, on others we don't, if any mlb does develop it is unlikely to last long with the pv showing signs of going back home to Greenland. personally at this stage a night of accumulting snow will do me:) Vilian's video was very funny and sobering in that regard. I'm off to Greenland:D

Never say never Mr. Nacho. I don't know much about strat warming either but I am sure there is more to potential severe cold development in this part of the world than just that, which in itself is debatable. I recall somewhere before that if strat warming was to develop, it does not necessarily lead to hemispheric pattern changes.