The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Who remembers this

Weathercheck wrote: »

Very ugly charts this morning!

Thargor wrote: »

FFS what does "ugly" mean?

Harps wrote: »

While I'd love to see something like that I think we should be glad things don't get that extreme in this country, the country grinds to a halt with a few cm of snow so I can't even imagine what would happen with that :pac:

Looking at tonights models, not a lot happening for the rest of this month, westerlies all the way with the PV moving over Greenland next week. Maybe a storm or two to spark some interest?

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The current temperatures in the Great Lakes region are threatening or even breaking records set in an epic early winter scenario of Nov 1880, and that should be of interest in Ireland and the U.K. given how the winter of 1880-81 turned out (very cold and snowy in January 1881).

Winter 2014/5 - Cold to very cold, then average/mild, back to very cold

Winter 2013/4 was as we know mild and stormy, IMO directly linked to the strong Aleutian ridge formed due to the unique warm SST anomaly in the North Pacific during 2013. This I found two similar occasions and the winters that followed had cold early and cold late, so is my baseline for this winter,
Also -
QBO-Easterly - favourable for HLB
Jetstream - meridional and shifted south generally due to solar phase
Solar Cycle - it is very weak even though we've just been at peak - Long-term solar slumber
Volcanic activity - I think we've had enough SO2 pumped into atmosphere for it to affect its state and assist in very negative AO and NAO readings.


Added since
OPI and SAI - HLB favourable


December
Negative NAO and Negative AO
Very cold and at times of 2010 standard -
We have seen the stubbornness of the block to our east. This IMO paints the picture of blocking being very influential throughout winter. Late Nov will IMO show the developments to what Dec will be like, what I'm looking for is NW/SE movement of deep LP/s over UK and ridge building behind in Atlantic ridging up towards Greenland blocking Jetstream south. For Dec I'm thinking blocking HP to our W/NW strengthens and at times oscillating/extending to Scandinavia with pressure lower to our E/SE/S being unable to move east due to the Siberian HP, thus a flow generally from our N to E quadrant taking hold more North than E initially. Snow clearly comes into play, as with very cold air coming over warm North Sea, bingo... but we know how 'localised' that can be so I'll leave it that it is IMO likely and could be widespread and substantial. Things have moved slowly this autumn so the cold could advance slower than I think however I'll stick with what I originally think. I'm thinking middle portion of month to be coldest and some very low minima could be experienced. There is a signal for Jan to be milder so I anticipate the Atlantic to make inroads Xmas to New Year period with new moon and perigee 22nd and 24th I'm comfortable with that timing. However, talking of the stubborn block to our east I think it will be a slow process with a classic breakdown scenario.
CET - potentially coldest month relative to the norm - but doesn't mean the 'coldest' month.

January
NAO neutral/positive, AO neutral/negative

I'm going against the grain here.
This is a touch and go month, Siberian/Russian HP strong to our East, Atlantic wanting to barrel in and could start very unsettled. Reading what RJS has said I wouldn't be surprised if cold advanced onto us but same also for more Atlantic influence too, as I think a flow from SW to SE quadrant will be main feature and some to-ing and fro-ing of airmasses are anticipated and we could be in situation we've been experiencing. However, the continent will be cold so any SE'ly flow would be cold. New moon and perigee on 20th and 21st so I'll target this as a very active period/storm watch warning. What I am anticipating is that a main Strat warming will be the talk of Jan. Siberian/Russian High to exert influence more so last week of Jan.
CET - not the story of the month, but average overall

February
AO - Very negative, NAO - negative
My coldest month - reading the strat thread and the OPI result I'm drawn to bring my late cold early as a serious strat warming event looks likely.
The major strat warming effect to be in its full glory with vortex KO'd and in pieces and where they fall could be the key. Major blocking to our NW, N, NE to dominate. Not wanting to be too extreme but synoptically Dec 2010 comes to mind, but the longevity of the cold spell could be the talking point. Periods of events/snow 3-6 Feb lunar apogee and Full moon and new moon/perigee 18th and 19th.
CET - coldest of the winter

So folks there we have it....not long to see if we have a goer or bust.

BFTP