Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

skippymac6 · 05-11-2014 01:59PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Early fancies for the internationals, waiting on teams:
Ireland +5.5. Despite the injuries Ireland are still a really solid team and if there's one factor that's important to have on your side in a big game it's a good coach.
Fiji +26.5. Fiji I think are in great shape and could score a couple of tries. France are dysfunctional.
Maybe Australia and Argentina both at -2.5. I'll definitely need a look at the Argentinian team though. Scotland has a good SH record so maybe not. Australia have a new coach which is always tough for a team to get used to and they didn't look great at the weekend, but all the same you're getting good odds to bet against Wales playing one of the big 3.
The England game looks well handicapped at -7. England are dealing with a lot of injuries and are tough to back at this handicap but NZ simply haven't been as good as last year either.

I think Paddy are fairly on the money (as per usual) with their lines this week. I was initially considering backing the Welsh but I don't really like the look of their forward pack. Warburton and Faluteau have been quiet this year and Lydiate hasn't had a look in for Racing and has been released. That siad they do know each others games inside out so they could very well play well but I'd take the Fardy/Hooper/Palu or Higginbottom axis there. Australia's weakness historically is their tight 5 and I just don't think the Welsh tight 5 is good enough to boss them here. The clash of the backlines will be worth the admission alone.

I reckon Ireland will put it up to the Boks and I'm looking at a half time hcap and overall hcap bet on them. I think we'll start with a hiss and a roar and put it up to them early. I can see the Boks coming back into it then much like they did two years ago. Low scoring tight game is what I imagine and hopefully we can come out on the right side of it. The Kiwi game looks clearcut in that they have some great continuity going while the English lads haven't played together in donkeys and are dealing with injuries. That said, the English genuinely don't feel intimidated but the ABs but if they couldn't do without three players I'd say that would be Tuilagi, Cole and Corbisero. I'd be taking NZ -7 here.

matthew8 · 05-11-2014 03:26PM

1 unit Fiji +27 1.91.

thomond2006 · 05-11-2014 06:35PM

Any thoughts on La Rochelle +13 on the 'cap away to Oyonnax? La Rochelle really need to get something out of that game. 15/2 to win might be worth a small stake too.

matthew8 · 05-11-2014 06:54PM

I've kept tabs on how I do in different leagues. Top 14 did not make for pretty reading and I've stopped betting on it. A handicap like that in the Top 14 sounds like a genuine coin flip usually but I still glance at the odds and it's definitely worth looking at the all important team sheet or group for La Rochelle in that match. If you made me have a bet on it I'd take La Rochelle with no hesitation.

Super Sidious · 05-11-2014 11:52PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Any thoughts on La Rochelle +13 on the 'cap away to Oyonnax? La Rochelle really need to get something out of that game. 15/2 to win might be worth a small stake too.

Who would you have favourites on neutral ground? Home adv. is about 10points in Top 14, I think theres a small bit of value in La Rochelles line as I'd have them a few points better than Oyonnax on neutral ground.

sydthebeat · 06-11-2014 10:27AM

Another one for the craic

Maoris -29
Aussie -3
Boks -6
Abs -8

Approx 12-1

matthew8 · 06-11-2014 03:40PM

1 unit Ireland to win 4.0. Enough in the teams for Argentina game to put me off. Italy are +5.5 against a strong Samoan team, worth checking what team they name. Not a huge fan of the team Australia named either.

thomond2006 · 06-11-2014 03:41PM

9-15 for Argentina is potentially lethal but the back five of their pack is unfamiliar.

shuffol · 06-11-2014 06:57PM

Gonna go with

NZ -11
Aus
Fiji +21
S.A. -9:(
Scotland

Approx return - 35/1

thomond2006 · 06-11-2014 09:47PM

Old Balance: 55.27 units

- 1.5 units (5/2) Ireland to win
- .5 units (15/8) Ireland to score a try in both halves
- .25 units (6/1) Robbie Henshaw try in 80 mins
- .25 units (9/1) Johnny Sexton try in 80 mins
- .25 units (4/1) Ireland -6

- 1.5 units (10/11) La Rochelle +13
- .25 units (15/2) La Rochelle to win
- .75 units (13/8) Toulon to win

New Balance: 50.03 units

For the day that's in it, I had to back Ireland...

gflann · 07-11-2014 01:14PM

Quins - 18pts
Mont -14 pts

Double tonight.

gflann · 07-11-2014 02:16PM

Reading that Newcastle -11pts are a good thing...

Unbeaten in Oct
Full strength tonight
Cardiff severely depleted.

matthew8 · 08-11-2014 08:16PM

matthew8 wrote: »

69 staked and 61.78. Munster shocking but did the job. Ulster dominant but didn't.

71 staked and 65.69. Boooooooom. Everyone said we had no chance and I thought I was going crazy.

Fireball07 · 08-11-2014 08:57PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 55.27 units

- 1.5 units (5/2) Ireland to win
- .5 units (15/8) Ireland to score a try in both halves
- .25 units (6/1) Robbie Henshaw try in 80 mins
- .25 units (9/1) Johnny Sexton try in 80 mins
- .25 units (4/1) Ireland -6

- 1.5 units (10/11) La Rochelle +13
- .25 units (15/2) La Rochelle to win
- .75 units (13/8) Toulon to win

New Balance: 50.03 units

For the day that's in it, I had to back Ireland...

Ireland -6, nice one.

Judgement Day · 08-11-2014 09:04PM

I had one of my woeful weekends again - I thought by not putting my predictions here I'd have some chance. Try scorers in ABs game - SBW, Savea and Read - none of whom featured. Got back from the pub and went chasing losses. Backed Ireland at 11/4 despite not thinking that they had a prayer and then lost my nerve and piled into SA by more than 6. So, far from cancelling out my previous losses I lost a bit more. There's no fool like an old fool.

thomond2006 · 09-11-2014 02:03PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 55.27 units

- 1.5 units (5/2) Ireland to win
- .5 units (15/8) Ireland to score a try in both halves
- .25 units (6/1) Robbie Henshaw try in 80 mins
- .25 units (9/1) Johnny Sexton try in 80 mins
- .25 units (4/1) Ireland -6

- 1.5 units (10/11) La Rochelle +13
- .25 units (15/2) La Rochelle to win
- .75 units (13/8) Toulon to win

New Balance: 50.03 units

For the day that's in it, I had to back Ireland...

New Balance: 56.53 units

gflann · 10-11-2014 12:32PM

gflann wrote: »

Quins - 18pts
Mont -14 pts

Double tonight.

Both rubbish...

gflann · 10-11-2014 12:32PM

gflann wrote: »

Reading that Newcastle -11pts are a good thing...

Unbeaten in Oct
Full strength tonight
Cardiff severely depleted.

Good thing I haven't given up the day job...

matthew8 · 10-11-2014 06:10PM

Australia to win 2.0, South Africa to win 2.2 1 unit each.

thomond2006 · 10-11-2014 09:19PM

I like South Africa +2 or 6/5 to win it. Hartley and Lawes are both doubts.

Judgement Day · 10-11-2014 09:23PM

If the Boks don't beat England they won't be able to go home.

sydthebeat · 12-11-2014 12:38PM

Argentina (-4.0) @ 10/11

Georgia (+39.0) @ 10/11

Australia (+1.0) @ 10/11

South Africa (+2.0) @ 10/11

accum @ 12 / 1

matthew8 · 13-11-2014 05:37PM

1 unit Northampton -9.5 2.05.

captbarnacles · 14-11-2014 12:26AM

1 unit Scotland / NZ halftime/fulltime @ 7.6

gflann · 14-11-2014 11:28AM

Northampton -9
Harlequins to beat Gloucester

3/1 the double

matthew8 · 14-11-2014 03:35PM

Saracens win 1 unit 1.91.

thomond2006 · 14-11-2014 04:05PM

Old Balance: 56.53 units

- 2 units (10/11) South Africa +2
- 1 unit (evens) Ian Madigan try in 80 mins
- .25 units (7/2) Ireland to win to nil

New Balance: 53.28 units

skippymac6 · 14-11-2014 04:09PM

Italy vs Arg under 38.5 points -- today, moved forward from tomorrow due to storm risk
South Africa +2
Ireland -37
Northampton -8
Wales -24

Singles and accumulator

thomond2006 · 15-11-2014 12:10AM

thomond2006 wrote: »

- 1 unit (evens) Ian Madigan try in 80 mins

This has since shortened to 8/13. Zebo try in 80 minutes gone to 1/7 from 1/5!

Judgement Day · 16-11-2014 01:23PM

There's no value in the Ireland game - the try scorer bets are particularly poor but at least the various odds on offer save me from being tempted to lose more money.

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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