Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Deepsouthwest · 17-10-2014 02:11PM

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Noy displeased one bit bit if fat was a bit higher ........:D

I think those solids are perfect, higher fat will only cost u more litres with the bf reference

Greengrass1 · 17-10-2014 02:15PM

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

I think those solids are perfect, higher fat will only cost u more litres with the bf reference

True. Only reason we had the high fat other yrs was because of carry overs. We were only codding ourselves

Deepsouthwest · 17-10-2014 02:24PM

frazzledhome wrote: »

No hitting 16 tonne grass this year so could carry but would have to import too much meal.

Cows will be silly money this spring and price will no low so am thinking cash in cows keep all our heifers and cut her to the bone for the year. Look my heart is telling me your right but the books say otherwise. I'll make a call in Jan when I see prices of stock and milk. If I can see average milk price over 35 for next year I'll milk if not and cows are dear I'll cut back.

We will still have enough heifers to grow in 2016. Thinking out loud, a lot going one way maybe I should go the other way:) talk of 2015 I can't see what's wrong with 16,17 or 18

I was in a similar situation with expanding nxt yr, but sold 25(40%) of my incalf heifers a mnth back. Not sure if nxt yr is the yr the be pushing the stocking rate with expected milk price. Will still increase cows by just over 10%, and plenty heifers on the ground for 2016. As regards feeding more concentrates on grass nxt yr, that can only be done at the shoulders. Plan to get SR right, probably make less surplus bales in the summer, and then fill the gap early and late with more meal. Finding the right balance will be key

jaymla627 · 17-10-2014 02:41PM

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

I was in a similar situation with expanding nxt yr, but sold 25(40%) of my incalf heifers a mnth back. Not sure if nxt yr is the yr the be pushing the stocking rate with expected milk price. Will still increase cows by just over 10%, and plenty heifers on the ground for 2016. As regards feeding more concentrates on grass nxt yr, that can only be done at the shoulders. Plan to get SR right, probably make less surplus bales in the summer, and then fill the gap early and late with more meal. Finding the right balance will be key

Can understand not feeding meal in a scenario where milk is low and meal price is high, but next year with barley and soya hulls looking like their going to be sub 170 a ton why wouldn't you feed cows when the 1st of April comes around, even if milk say hits 25 cent a litre, a feed conversion rate of 1 to 1 your still 8 cent a litre better of on your extra litres and have happier cows:D

Deepsouthwest · 17-10-2014 02:54PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

Can understand not feeding meal in a scenario where milk is low and meal price is high, but next year with barley and soya hulls looking like their going to be sub 170 a ton why wouldn't you feed cows when the 1st of April comes around, even if milk say hits 25 cent a litre, a feed conversion rate of 1 to 1 your still 8 cent a litre better of on your extra litres and have happier cows:D

And that's what most people will do. But then ur going to have to carry a higher stocking rate to eat the grass that this meal replaces when grass takes off. Then in the event of meal price rising, and still poor milk price, u will have to continue feeding the meal as ur now too overstocked to cut it out. Now ur in the dangerous game of chasing production, and keeping v little of the money ur handling for urself. Like I said earlier its about getting the balance right.

mahoney_j · 17-10-2014 03:25PM

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

And that's what most people will do. But then ur going to have to carry a higher stocking rate to eat the grass that this meal replaces when grass takes off. Then in the event of meal price rising, and still poor milk price, u will have to continue feeding the meal as ur now too overstocked to cut it out. Now ur in the dangerous game of chasing production, and keeping v little of the money ur handling for urself. Like I said earlier its about getting the balance right.

I get where ur coming from but what I'd do there is off load cows be it milkers or culls or both if milk price stays low and concentrate prices rise.your last part about getting balance right is very relevant.

Deepsouthwest · 17-10-2014 03:50PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

I get where ur coming from but what I'd do there is off load cows be it milkers or culls or both if milk price stays low and concentrate prices rise.your last part about getting balance right is very relevant.

Yeah, that's the obvious solution, but if ur selling cows for that reason then there will probably be plenty more guys doing the v same, therefore deflating the price of cows. It's just something we'll have to be wary of. Unfortunately with the quota shackles thrown off most of us won't be able to help chasing production, myself included! And to add to that, only Teagasc will advise us against this scenario, because everyone and I mean everyone else(millers, vets, coops, ai, contractors, builders, machinery sales etc) will be making money out of this increased production, except possibly the farmer.

awaywithyou · 17-10-2014 04:45PM

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Yeah, that's the obvious solution, but if ur selling cows for that reason then there will probably be plenty more guys doing the v same, therefore deflating the price of cows. It's just something we'll to be wary of. Unfortunately with the quota shackles thrown off most of us won't be able to help chasing production, myself included! And to add to that, only Teagasc will advise us against this scenario, because everyone and I mean everyone else(millers, vets, coops, ai, contractors, builders, machinery sales etc) will be making money out this increased production, except possibly the farmer.

last four words of your quote are spot on.... i think michael noonan,s agri-taxation plans are to get every farmer to break his backside working land. not to benefit the farmer but the economy of the country... like you said money in everyone else's pocket except the lad making it happen..... hopefully that wont happen.....

Brown Podzol · 17-10-2014 05:02PM

Posted this last Dec.

No one cares if you are profitable or not, upstream or downstream of your business as long as you are able to pay the bills and keep producing. By profitable I mean paying down debt, securing a pension,banking cash, building wealth. A return on risk and hard work. We shouldn't put ourselves in a place where the business is vulnerable to a year or two of low milk price and in good times be able to put a bit of fat into the business. High debt coupled with high costs will kill you. As Warren Buffet said " when the tide goes out we will see who is swimming in the nude".

mf240 · 17-10-2014 05:08PM

Youd want to be very unlucky for meal to be very dear the same year as milk is very low.

In 09 rolled barley was 130 per ton.

Agree about the balance though. Its very easy to get carried away when everything is going well.

5live · 17-10-2014 05:12PM

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Posted this last Dec.

No one cares if you are profitable or not, upstream or downstream of your business as long as you are able to pay the bills and keep producing. By profitable I mean paying down debt, securing a pension,banking cash, building wealth. A return on risk and hard work. We shouldn't put ourselves in a place where the business is vulnerable to a year or two of low milk price and in good times be able to put a bit of fat into the business. High debt coupled with high costs will kill you. As Warren Buffet said " when the tide goes out we will see who is swimming in the nude".

Good post.

As Warren Buffet would say, i could do with a bigger mankini but 2-3 years will sort that problem out.

Timmaay · 17-10-2014 07:04PM

awaywithyou wrote: »

last four words of your quote are spot on.... i think michael noonan,s agri-taxation plans are to get every farmer to break his backside working land. not to benefit the farmer but the economy of the country... like you said money in everyone else's pocket except the lad making it happen..... hopefully that wont happen.....

I'll admit straight out leasing out the farm here long term and getting up to 40k/yr tax free (ie let some other farmer break his backside!), and go back to my previous career would be a very viable option for me moving forward!

whelan2 · 17-10-2014 07:07PM

Timmaay wrote: »

I'll admit straight out leasing out the farm here long term and getting up to 40k/yr tax free (ie let some other farmer break his backside!), and go back to my previous career would be a very viable option for me moving forward!

what would your dad think of that?

mf240 · 17-10-2014 07:23PM

whelan2 wrote: »

what would your dad think of that?

" your after making a show of me and a show of mammy!! What will the neighbours say ya little fecker!!!"

Timmaay · 17-10-2014 07:34PM

whelan2 wrote: »

what would your dad think of that?

He might be glade to see the back of me

darragh_haven · 17-10-2014 07:38PM

Timmaay wrote: »

I'll admit straight out leasing out the farm here long term and getting up to 40k/yr tax free (ie let some other farmer break his backside!), and go back to my previous career would be a very viable option for me moving forward!

With the 40 year old farmer rule removed, it is by far and away the best financial option here, even 25 grand and tax free is a profit of 50 grand. And id be able to do what I want every weekend... even if it is other work.

trixi2011 · 17-10-2014 07:54PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

Can understand not feeding meal in a scenario where milk is low and meal price is high, but next year with barley and soya hulls looking like their going to be sub 170 a ton why wouldn't you feed cows when the 1st of April comes around, even if milk say hits 25 cent a litre, a feed conversion rate of 1 to 1 your still 8 cent a litre better of on your extra litres and have happier cows:D

Do you really get a 1 to 1 conversion rate with meal in grass based cows? In my opinion the only cow you will get this sort of a conversion rate is a big ho which is unable to eat enough grass to live up to her genetic potential.

jaymla627 · 17-10-2014 08:05PM

trixi2011 wrote: »

Do you really get a 1 to 1 conversion rate with meal in grass based cows? In my opinion the only cow you will get this sort of a conversion rate is a big ho which is unable to eat enough grass to live up to her genetic potential.

Tried to get away with less meal this year during early summer and was just going with a kilo day, when the mini-drought hit and looked like grass was getting tight upped meal to 3 kg a day and yield went from 19 to 22.5 and stayed up so yes I think you do.....another point lost on lads is the fact that heading into autumn grass quality is dropping/along with dm going in with meal on the shoulders is going to stop you getting a big drop in yield and keep production a lot more consistent

mahoney_j · 17-10-2014 08:21PM

trixi2011 wrote: »

Do you really get a 1 to 1 conversion rate with meal in grass based cows? In my opinion the only cow you will get this sort of a conversion rate is a big ho which is unable to eat enough grass to live up to her genetic potential.

Nope pile of crap,lots of us doing it with them.breed them correctly,high ebi 30 plus kg solids 150 250 kg milk .7500 to 8 k Ltrs is very achievable in the right hands with good grass management and 1 to 1.2 tonne meal.conversion rate of 1.2 to 1.5 or more is achievable.problem is the main cog behind the wheel and not the cow:D

trixi2011 · 17-10-2014 08:41PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

Tried to get away with less meal this year during early summer and was just going with a kilo day, when the mini-drought hit and looked like grass was getting tight upped meal to 3 kg a day and yield went from 19 to 22.5 and stayed up so yes I think you do.....another point lost on lads is the fact that heading into autumn grass quality is dropping/along with dm going in with meal on the shoulders is going to stop you getting a big drop in yield and keep production a lot more consistent

Fully agree that you will good conversion rates when dry matters are low , but when conditions and covers and dry matters allow there is no point in feeding high levels of meal to cows who could preform just as we'll of grass and minim meal

trixi2011 · 17-10-2014 08:46PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Nope pile of crap,lots of us doing it with them.breed them correctly,high ebi 30 plus kg solids 150 250 kg milk .7500 to 8 k Ltrs is very achievable in the right hands with good grass management and 1 to 1.2 tonne meal.conversion rate of 1.2 to 1.5 or more is achievable.problem is the main cog behind the wheel and not the cow:D

Agree with some of what you say but to be fair you have the breeding and management of cows sorted. Plenty of lads feeding over a tone of meal to cows and not getting 7500/8000 l of milk out of them and you can be sure there cows are not converting 1 for 1

mahoney_j · 17-10-2014 08:50PM

trixi2011 wrote: »

Agree with some of what you say but to be fair you have the breeding and management of cows sorted. Plenty of lads feeding over a tone of meal to cows and not getting 7500/8000 l of milk out of them and you can be sure there cows are not converting 1 for 1

AS I said if the cow isn't bred correctly and grass ain't managed correctly blame lies at the man behind the wheel:cool:

trixi2011 · 17-10-2014 09:21PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

AS I said if the cow isn't bred correctly and grass ain't managed correctly blame lies at the man behind the wheel:cool:

agree totally but if you have a cow how isn't capable of eating 20+ kg of dm and your grassland management is super is she really going to give a conversion of 1to1 or are you just replacing 1kg of grass with a kg of expensive meal.

solwhit2 · 18-10-2014 10:17AM

Dairygold have dropped it 3 cent to 32 c/l

kowtow · 18-10-2014 01:16PM

darragh_haven wrote: »

With the 40 year old farmer rule removed, it is by far and away the best financial option here, even 25 grand and tax free is a profit of 50 grand. And id be able to do what I want every weekend... even if it is other work.

I think the leasing incentives are a really positive move forward, actually about the only practical way of tackling the land layout with quota going.

I know that the introduction of the FBT (Farm Business Tenancy) in the UK which replaced centuries old agricultural tenancies was a big help; and the UK didn't suffer as Ireland did from the antiquated system of conacre - a relic of absentee landlords designed to destroy productivity and benefit capital as opposed to production.

What I do wonder - given the big bias in favour of owning land I see around me - is whether tenants will be quite as keen to lease land as new landlords might be to let it? Won't they still want to buy ("we've never lost money owning land...")?

Milked out · 18-10-2014 01:35PM

kowtow wrote: »

I think the leasing incentives are a really positive move forward, actually about the only practical way of tackling the land layout with quota going.

I know that the introduction of the FBT (Farm Business Tenancy) in the UK which replaced centuries old agricultural tenancies was a big help; and the UK didn't suffer as Ireland did from the antiquated system of conacre - a relic of absentee landlords designed to destroy productivity and benefit capital as opposed to production.

What I do wonder - given the big bias in favour of owning land I see around me - is whether tenants will be quite as keen to lease land as new landlords might be to let it? Won't they still want to buy ("we've never lost money owning land...")?

That's a good point, however having the opportunity to lease land could allow lads to pay for the purchase of land. It's hard enough possibly impossible to pay for land on the back of the same plots own earning potential

frazzledhome · 18-10-2014 02:28PM

Milked out wrote: »

That's a good point, however having the opportunity to lease land could allow lads to pay for the purchase of land. It's hard enough possibly impossible to pay for land on the back of the same plots own earning potential

As far as I can see its the most efficient way of paying for land purchase. Use someone else's capital

Greengrass1 · 18-10-2014 04:03PM

frazzledhome wrote: »

As far as I can see its the most efficient way of paying for land purchase. Use someone else's capital

Ive heard you say this before but I dont understand what you mean? Maybe im stupid:)

atlantic mist · 18-10-2014 08:12PM

rent out ur land tax free, buy new land and use tax free rent money to pay for loan on new land purchases

frazzledhome · 18-10-2014 08:37PM

atlantic mist wrote: »

rent out ur land tax free, buy new land and use tax free rent money to pay for loan on new land purchases

Well that's not what I meant.
One question what do you use to pay the tax on the capital repayments on the new loan?

What I mean is rent land set up parlour, load with cows pay landlord and use profit along with home farm profit to buy new land

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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