Price Changes FPL 14/15 Mod warning 1st post

P.Walnuts · 23-09-2014 02:53PM

The debate about the price rise predictor sites beign off I find quite strange...

Not sure I can go along with players being "casual" because they don't spend 60 seconds a day checking a third party site.

So imo, people will get rewarded now for picking the right players based on form and fixtures, not for very minimal time checking other sites for price rises. Fine by me tbh

CSF · 23-09-2014 02:58PM

P.Walnuts wrote: »

The debate about the price rise predictor sites beign off I find quite strange...

Not sure I can go along with players being "casual" because they don't spend 60 seconds a day checking a third party site.

So imo, people will get rewarded now for picking the right players based on form and fixtures, not for very minimal time checking other sites for price rises. Fine by me tbh

Whether you go along with it or not, it pretty much has been the case.

FHFC · 23-09-2014 04:11PM

P.Walnuts wrote: »

The debate about the price rise predictor sites beign off I find quite strange...

Not sure I can go along with players being "casual" because they don't spend 60 seconds a day checking a third party site.

So imo, people will get rewarded now for picking the right players based on form and fixtures, not for very minimal time checking other sites for price rises. Fine by me tbh

Its not so much that many, lets call them 'normal'

, players don't take time to check price change sites. Its more that they have very little concept of the fact that price changes for some reason, and implications of prices changing. Most normal players I know are totally oblivious to the notion that there are (or were) websites which can work out and predict these changes.

Picking the right players based on form and fixtures for maximum points return is always the point of the game, but going to the trouble (or being anal enough if you look at it that way) to understand the price change system and using the resources that were there also allow you to play (as much as you wanted) a secondary game of building a better team value than your rivals to gain advantage in the second half of the season. In my opinion based on what I learned last year is is worth sacrificing a few points till xmas to have that extra couple of million which could gain you more than a few points extra on the run in.

So in my view it was never an either/or situation in the quote in bold above, it was an extra dimension which the 'serious' player (the geek!) could use to his advantage if he played it smart. The balance you made between chasing value and and focusing on points was up to you. Although I always find both objectives overlap to a large degree, its just about making the changes in the correct way to maximise value gains.

Sayin all of the above, I am not in the camp that think the game is ruined, its just that the team value objective just got a whole lot harder. Therefore more of a challenge.

As I've said before I still think focusing on the team value within reason will still pay off in terms of an advantage, mainly because while rises have slowed down and become hard/impossible to predict, price drops rates have increased a lot and are also impossible to predict. This means that the 'normal' player with no concept of the price change issue is often haemorrhaging team value on a few players and will I suspect end up with a very low value, which against even a moderately high value in January will be at a big disadvantage.

Possibly more of a disadvantage than someone of a moderate team value Vs a very high one (as would have been the case last year) given that the "must have" players won't be proportionally cheaper, so it will be very hard if you only have 102m in January to get a decent team.

FHFC · 23-09-2014 04:29PM

FHFC wrote: »

As I've said before I still think focusing on the team value within reason will still pay off in terms of an advantage, mainly because while rises have slowed down and become hard/impossible to predict, price drops rates have increased a lot and are also impossible to predict. This means that the 'normal' player with no concept of the price change issue is often haemorrhaging team value on a few players and will I suspect end up with a very low value, which against even a moderately high value in January will be at a big disadvantage.

BTW, just put a post on the Team Value thread which highlights this fact....

iroced · 23-09-2014 11:42PM

Since I kinda started this debate I may just as well clarify my point.

What I particularly dislike this year is the lack of control on the game. When we talk about the skill/luck ratio involved to perform in this game, the (almost) complete randomness of price changes this year decreases this ratio. That's the main annoying thing for me.

Granted we probably should have never known these info since the predictions sites were catching some hidden data but as a matter of fact we did when I started playing and I actually never understood why these sites had to exist i.e. why FPL didn't/doesn't give the info. A player's price is rising or falling. Right, with that info we still HAVE to make a decision. You KNOW what you are doing.

As I previously said I thought last year system was too extreme in favour of price changes (the weighted system from 2-3 years ago was by far the best I've ever played) but at least we knew and we made decisions with that knowledge. Several times I did swallow a price drop because I didn't want to get rid of my player at that particular time. Several times too I did not follow a bandwagon because I didn't belive in it. Sometimes I was right. Sometimes I was wrong. But either bandwagonnig or waiting, I KNEW what I was doing

This year we just don't know. It's harder to build up a solid short to mid-term strategy without this info. Most importantly I fail to see what's the gain? Adding randomness to a game based on stats sounds like a joke doesn't it?

G1032 · 24-09-2014 05:02AM

Duff up to 4.2
Costa up to 11.0

A few fell in price. Not listing them all but Ben Davies is now 4.6m. If he wins a starting place for Spurs he's great value now.

FHFC · 24-09-2014 07:13AM

G1032 wrote: »

Duff up to 4.2
Costa up to 11.0

A few fell in price. Not listing them all but Ben Davies is now 4.6m. If he wins a starting place for Spurs he's great value now.

Fpl statistics had the rises spot on again last night.

8-10 · 24-09-2014 07:32AM

iroced wrote: »

Since I kinda started this debate I may just as well clarify my point.

What I particularly dislike this year is the lack of control on the game. When we talk about the skill/luck ratio involved to perform in this game, the (almost) complete randomness of price changes this year decreases this ratio. That's the main annoying thing for me.

Granted we probably should have never known these info since the predictions sites were catching some hidden data but as a matter of fact we did when I started playing and I actually never understood why these sites had to exist i.e. why FPL didn't/doesn't give the info. A player's price is rising or falling. Right, with that info we still HAVE to make a decision. You KNOW what you are doing.

As I previously said I thought last year system was too extreme in favour of price changes (the weighted system from 2-3 years ago was by far the best I've ever played) but at least we knew and we made decisions with that knowledge. Several times I did swallow a price drop because I didn't want to get rid of my player at that particular time. Several times too I did not follow a bandwagon because I didn't belive in it. Sometimes I was right. Sometimes I was wrong. But either bandwagonnig or waiting, I KNEW what I was doing

This year we just don't know. It's harder to build up a solid short to mid-term strategy without this info. Most importantly I fail to see what's the gain? Adding randomness to a game based on stats sounds like a joke doesn't it?

It's not adding randomness. They hide their formula and tinker it every season. Nothing's different this year other than the third party sites haven't figured it out yet. That's not FPL's fault.

CSF · 24-09-2014 07:33AM

8-10 wrote: »

It's not adding randomness. They hide their formula and tinker it every season. Nothing's different this year other than the third party sites haven't figured it out yet. That's not FPL's fault.

No, there was information visible that isn't anymore.

8-10 · 24-09-2014 07:42AM

CSF wrote: »

No, there was information visible that isn't anymore.

By visible do you mean part of the website's source code? Because that's not exactly visible. You have to think of intent

CSF · 24-09-2014 08:00AM

8-10 wrote: »

By visible do you mean part of the website's source code? Because that's not exactly visible. You have to think of intent

If the guys were able to get it year on year it was visible. I'm not saying it was manageable information for the average joe but still.

8-10 · 24-09-2014 08:31AM

I just think that the fact there's less risers than fallers this year (significantly) is a bigger talking point than third party sites understanding the new formula. There is certainly no randomness in the players that are rising though, it makes sense

FHFC · 24-09-2014 09:10AM

FHFC wrote: »

Fpl statistics had the rises spot on again last night.

FPL Statsitics

FISO

Thats two of the last three nights FPL Statistics got it exactly right. On Monday night they had nobody over the threshold so I didn't bother taking a screen shot. So I'm not sure if the 5 rises which did happen were their top 5 but they just had the threshold slightly wrong.

Its good to see potentially one of the sites getting some accuracy on rises. I plan to keep and eye on this for a while to test if we can start to trust FPL Stats a bit. Not bothering with Total FPL yet, they show pretty similar NTI figures to FISO but their thresholds have been all over the place with players on 1000% etc.

Edit: I see Total FPL have tidied up their %s a bit today, may keep an eye on them too.

iroced · 24-09-2014 11:32AM

8-10 wrote: »

It's not adding randomness. They hide their formula and tinker it every season. Nothing's different this year other than the third party sites haven't figured it out yet. That's not FPL's fault.

I'm talking about randomness because we just don't know (though fplstats seems to be getting it now). Unless you do an approximate calculation yourself... Maybe the word randomness is badly chosen but the fact there is one parameter in the game that we cannot control anymore is adding unecessary uncertainty to the game which is very bad in my opinion.

And it is FPL's fault from the very beginning. Not from this year. I'd love to know the reason why we just don't have this info on the official FPL site. What's the big deal for them? Why it is so important that we don't have the price changes info on the site? Who does really benefit from it?

These price changes are a big part of the game. Again I fail to see the gain in not knowing it. If they don't want us to know about the price changes they may as well remove it completely. But FPL were even doing an overall ranking based on team value. So they know people are interested in it. Why this change then? What for?

To me it's like if you start a working project with just a random idea of your overall budget. It may rise or fall depending on the market and you just have a rough idea. I don't like this "blindness". I like to control it. And the main point is it doesn't make it easier but more interesting and enjoyable.

manual_man · 24-09-2014 12:08PM

FHFC wrote: »

Fpl statistics had the rises spot on again last night.

they actually had ivan for a rise. marginally like wisdom a couple of nights ago :pac::pac:

but yeah its nice to see somewhere is getting a hold on the formula

Have they been as accurate with the falls does anyone know?

OneColdHand · 24-09-2014 12:13PM

manual_man wrote: »

they actually had ivan for a rise. marginally like wisdom a couple of nights ago :pac::pac:

but yeah its nice to see somewhere is getting a hold on the formula

Have they been as accurate with the falls does anyone know?

I don't think they're anywhere near as accurate with the falls as they are with the rises unfortunately.

FHFC · 24-09-2014 12:14PM

manual_man wrote: »

they actually had ivan for a rise. marginally like wisdom a couple of nights ago :pac::pac:

but yeah its nice to see somewhere is getting a hold on the formula

Have they been as accurate with the falls does anyone know?

You need to have a nice early night to yourself some of these evenings!!

If I can confirm they are ok on rises I might start checking their fall predictions too, but thats a bit more work given the volume.

manual_man · 24-09-2014 12:31PM

FHFC wrote: »

You need to have a nice early night to yourself some of these evenings!!

If I can confirm they are ok on rises I might start checking their fall predictions too, but thats a bit more work given the volume.

ah no i didn't mean it as a nudge for you personally to put more work in re. their accuracy :pac::pac: have only checked the risers the last few days as thankfully i don't have any players in danger of a drop at present

p.s. you're talking to a perennial night-owl here

an early night? pffft what is that!!!

FHFC · 24-09-2014 01:05PM

manual_man wrote: »

ah no i didn't mean it as a nudge for you personally to put more work in re. their accuracy :pac::pac: have only checked the risers the last few days as thankfully i don't have any players in danger of a drop at present

p.s. you're talking to a perennial night-owl here

an early night? pffft what is that!!!

Was thinking of checking drops anyway. They are more important than the rises this season really.

If I can narrow down that FPL Stats is getting the rises right I'll keep an eye on their drops as well.

wonski · 24-09-2014 01:09PM

Aren't most of these drops for players with very low ownership anyway?

FHFC · 24-09-2014 03:54PM

wonski wrote: »

Aren't most of these drops for players with very low ownership anyway?

Yeah, but its the ones that aren't that hurt you. And being able to know these drops are coming and therefore avoid them is arguably more important than chasing rises, as you lose 0.1 for every drop, but only bank 0.1 for every two rises.

FHFC · 25-09-2014 04:44AM

Ulloa the only rise.

No site predicted it.

HighClass · 25-09-2014 06:59AM

Glad I brought him in after his first rise this week. Had a feeling he'd go up again and didn't want to chance it.

Rikand · 25-09-2014 09:01AM

Maybe there is no formula this year and FPL are just doing whatever the hell they want to do

G1032 · 25-09-2014 09:05AM

Rikand wrote: »

Maybe there is no formula this year and FPL are just doing whatever the hell they want to do

It certainly would appear that way

8-10 · 25-09-2014 09:07AM

Rikand wrote: »

Maybe there is no formula this year and FPL are just doing whatever the hell they want to do

You see that's clearly not true. It's still the players who are in form getting points and getting transfers in.

Look at the players who have risen, Costa, Ulloa, Siggy, Fabregas, Dier, Clyne....etc

It should be no surprise to anybody that plays this game that these are the players that rise . Similarly it's the players not starting, players at big prices in bad defences, and injured players who are going down.

Yet people are posting as if FPL have changed it dramatically and there's these random rises and drops all over the place. Name one price rise that looked random?

FHFC · 25-09-2014 09:07AM

Rikand wrote: »

Maybe there is no formula this year and FPL are just doing whatever the hell they want to do

The second rise in a gw seems to be very unpredictable. It seems to have a different threshold than the first rise but they can't seem to pin it down. Ulloa has been getting huge NTI but was only around 85% on FPL stats last night, I'd say the threshold for 100% they were assuming was off.

Ivanovic and Forster were around the 100% and most likely for a rise.

Wombatman · 25-09-2014 09:47AM

Good chance Ulloa will trip again before close at this rate.

iroced · 25-09-2014 10:21AM

8-10 wrote: »

You see that's clearly not true. It's still the players who are in form getting points and getting transfers in.

Look at the players who have risen, Costa, Ulloa, Siggy, Fabregas, Dier, Clyne....etc

It should be no surprise to anybody that plays this game that these are the players that rise . Similarly it's the players not starting, players at big prices in bad defences, and injured players who are going down.

So if I follow your reasoning, every Saturday/Sunday evening I should make my transfers based on the in/out of form players to avoid being caught on price rises/falls?

Yet people are posting as if FPL have changed it dramatically and there's these random rises and drops all over the place. Name one price rise that looked random?

I don't want to sound rude but you don't seem to understand the issue here.

What's becoming "random" or "uncertain" is not the rises/falls in themselves it's their timing. Knowing this timing is adding the control you get on the game. That's the only point. That's THE issue.

SlickRic · 25-09-2014 10:29AM

i actually find it fun tbh.

it's kind of obvious who is going to rise/fall most weeks, it's just a question of when. you have to predict when you think players will rise by gauging how fast a player will become more or less popular.

it's good for the game.

Price Changes FPL 14/15 **Mod warning 1st post**

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Price Changes FPL 14/15 Mod warning 1st post