Scottish Independence discussion area

awec · 07-09-2014 11:55PM

EunanMac wrote: »

I thought the odds would be around evens, worth a punt at those odds, the bookies are in for a hiding if there is a yes vote

Evens on a yes vote? Why bother putting money on that?

Bookies ultimately want your money. They will price things to try and entice you to take a chance on what they feel is going to be the losing outcome. The more people who do this the more money they will make.

They think no will win. So they'll give odds like 17/10 on yes to encourage risk takers. If it was evens or close to it nobody would bother.

You said it yourself. "Worth a punt at those odds".

EunanMac · 07-09-2014 11:58PM

awec wrote: »

Evens on a yes vote? Why bother putting money on that?

Because there is a better chance of winning. Plenty of odds are priced at evens in many events. It's as common as muck. For the best value, you find where you consider the bookies have priced the odds wrong and exploit it to your advantage. E.g. last weeks football semi final was a prime example. Paddy Power admitted last week they got the odds way wrong and lost a fortune on it. IMO they are also pricing the Scottish referendum incorrectly, hence, worth a punt.

My name is URL · 08-09-2014 12:05AM

Such a sham with all the deeply worried unionists simultaneously bargaining with the Scots (we'll give you more power if you vote no), and threatening them at the same time (we'll close the borders if you vote yes!)... In any case suggesting that they're the only ones holding cards in any of this.

It'd be such a laugh if they voted to leave the 'kingdom'... I would actually laugh and take great delight from it.

EunanMac · 08-09-2014 12:10AM

My name is URL wrote: »

Such a sham with all the deeply worried unionists simultaneously bargaining with the Scots (we'll give you more power if you vote no), and threatening them at the same time (we'll close the borders if you vote yes!)... In any case suggesting that they're the only ones holding cards in any of this.

It'd be such a laugh if they voted to leave the 'kingdom'... I would actually laugh and take great delight from it.

Even though I'm in favour of Scottish Independence if they want it, I would have my reservations about any gloating. If there are any unforeseeable and unintended political consequences for NI (there may or may not be, we'll have to wait and see, there are enough unpredictable radicals there that is for sure), that will also affect the Republic in some way.

awec · 08-09-2014 12:11AM

EunanMac wrote: »

Because there is a better chance of winning. Plenty of odds are priced at evens in many events. It's as common as muck. For the best value, you find where you consider the bookies have priced the odds wrong and exploit it to your advantage. E.g. last weeks football semi final was a prime example. Paddy Power admitted last week they got the odds way wrong and lost a fortune on it. IMO they are also pricing the Scottish referendum incorrectly, hence, worth a punt.

The bookies don't think so. Whether or not they are correct time will tell but it's pretty clear right now they are going with a no vote.

Of course there are loads of odds priced at evens. When it makes sense though.

If there were loads of people punting on yes then those odds would soon be cut. The fact they are still at those levels suggests to me that the bookies aren't getting that many people putting yes on their coupons.

eeepaulo · 08-09-2014 12:13AM

awec wrote: »

If there were loads of people punting on yes then those odds would soon be cut.

Maybe they are uncertain what currency the bet would be paid out in

EunanMac · 08-09-2014 12:14AM

awec wrote: »

The bookies don't think so. Whether or not they are correct time will tell but it's pretty clear right now they are going with a no vote.

Of course there are loads of odds priced at evens. When it makes sense though.

If there were loads of people punting on yes then those odds would soon be cut. The fact they are still at those levels suggests to me that the bookies aren't getting that many people putting yes on their coupons.

They will be as all the opinion poll gaps close, hence its worth a punt

Scottie99 · 08-09-2014 12:26AM

EunanMac wrote: »

They will be as all the opinion poll gaps close, hence its worth a punt

I stuck a few extra bob on last night before Sunday papers came out. Twitter was going mad at the time with the yougov poll - this time I got 5/2

Scottie99 · 08-09-2014 12:29AM

Richard wrote: »

In the 2010 UK General Election, 42% of the Scottish electorate voted Labour, but only 20% voted SNP, 19% voted LibDem and 17% voted Conservative. So SNP weren't exactly winners there.

Yep was thinking 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election where SNP gained control hence this Referendum.:D

kingchess · 08-09-2014 12:39AM

Independence-coming to a Country near you soon,

Fentdog84 · 08-09-2014 01:25AM

EunanMac wrote: »

Even though I'm in favour of Scottish Independence if they want it, I would have my reservations about any gloating. If there are any unforeseeable and unintended political consequences for NI (there may or may not be, we'll have to wait and see, there are enough unpredictable radicals there that is for sure), that will also affect the Republic in some way.

Your right, a scottish independence vote will have huge ramifications for both this country and the uk. But its hard not to gloat. The vote was only sanctioned by Cameron, Clegg & Osborne etc as a smarmy political stunt safe in the belief that no way would the scots actually vote to break from the uk. Now it looks like it could happen and they are ****ting themselves. They completely overestimated their own popularity. The credibility of the union is in complete tatters if it happens.

WilyCoyote · 08-09-2014 03:05AM

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Impression i get is the regular Brit isn't that bothered.

You mean ...... Fratton Fred is not your average Brit?

DEFTLEFTHAND · 08-09-2014 03:28AM

They hate tories but they're probably not that stupid. Remember the tory blue counties in England would give up everything north of the Watford Gap if they could vote for it.

Some people here make it seem like the big bad Brits want to hold onto their Empire. An inferiority complex or something maybe?

porsche959 · 08-09-2014 05:02AM

Rupert Murdoch, of all people, has apparently come out in favour of Scottish independence but his former Sunday Times editor Andrew Neil is saying it is just Murdoch's way of getting even with the British establishment after the phone-hacking scandal. Make of that what you will!

Crann na Beatha · 08-09-2014 07:36AM

This post has been deleted.

A Dub in Glasgo · 08-09-2014 07:38AM

The polls are showing it will be close with one poll showing Yes in a narrow lead. Even the hint of a Yes win has sent the No side into a panic. Watch for more dire warnings and more 'promises' of extra powers

Scottie99 · 08-09-2014 07:42AM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The polls are showing it will be close with one poll showing Yes in a narrow lead. Even the hint of a Yes win has sent the No side into a panic. Watch for more dire warnings and more 'promises' of extra powers

In the real world I think Yes are out in the distance not just the 2 points lead

Michael D Not Higgins · 08-09-2014 08:45AM

Scottie99 wrote: »

I stuck a few extra bob on last night before Sunday papers came out. Twitter was going mad at the time with the yougov poll - this time I got 5/2

How much have you dropped on a yes win now?

EunanMac · 08-09-2014 08:55AM

Fentdog84 wrote: »

Your right, a scottish independence vote will have huge ramifications for both this country and the uk. But its hard not to gloat. The vote was only sanctioned by Cameron, Clegg & Osborne etc as a smarmy political stunt safe in the belief that no way would the scots actually vote to break from the uk. Now it looks like it could happen and they are ****ting themselves. They completely overestimated their own popularity. The credibility of the union is in complete tatters if it happens.

I think you're right. Cameron is definitely the root cause of this mess, I couldn't see any other Prime Minister loose Scotland. He is a compete tosser, and this new breed of British politician are clueless half wits. The old hands would never make their mistakes. The Scots have rightly had enough of them.

Fratton Fred · 08-09-2014 09:02AM

EunanMac wrote: »

I think you're right. Cameron is definitely the root cause of this mess, I couldn't see any other Prime Minister loose Scotland. He is a compete tosser, and this new breed of British politician are clueless half wits. The old hands would never make their mistakes. The Scots have rightly had enough of them.

I'm not a big fan of Cameron, although he is growing on me. However, I fail to see what choice he had. The right to a referendum goes back (I believe) to the formation of the Scottish parliament and devolution.

porsche959 · 08-09-2014 09:07AM

Scottie99 wrote: »

In the real world I think Yes are out in the distance not just the 2 points lead

Rupert Murdoch claimed on Twitter that Salmond has commissioned polls which are showing 54 Y-46 N. Mind you, as regards Murdoch apparently latching himself onto the Yes campaign the expression "with friends like these..." springs to mind.

sebastianlieken · 08-09-2014 10:07AM

the pound sterling is really plumeting at the moment.... really really wish I'd converted all my money a month ago instead of holding out and hoping for the best.

Dyr · 08-09-2014 11:15AM

porsche959 wrote: »

Rupert Murdoch claimed on Twitter that Salmond has commissioned polls which are showing 54 Y-46 N. Mind you, as regards Murdoch apparently latching himself onto the Yes campaign the expression "with friends like these..." springs to mind.

He didnt get where he is without recognizing a tax haven in the making

snubbleste · 08-09-2014 12:24PM

We should quickly colonise and claim Rockall amid the confusion..

Somecrimesitry · 08-09-2014 01:03PM

snubbleste wrote: »

We should quickly colonise and claim Rockall amid the confusion..

You misspelt Northern Ireland:)

bobbysands81 · 08-09-2014 01:31PM

Scottie99 wrote: »

In the real world I think Yes are out in the distance not just the 2 points lead

How I wish this was true. I think Yes will put up a gallant fight but lose by a few % points.

I hope I'm wrong.

stevedublin · 08-09-2014 02:06PM

I can see Scotland dropping out of the UK, but can't see it dropping out of the EU.
If Scotland automatically falls out of the EU upon declaring independence, they'll probably apply to join quickly enough.

LordSutch · 08-09-2014 02:14PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I'm not a big fan of Cameron, although he is growing on me. However, I fail to see what choice he had. The right to a referendum goes back (I believe) to the formation of the Scottish parliament and devolution.

I believe it was Blair who opened the pandoras box, for which Cameron may well pay the price?

I am pie · 08-09-2014 02:43PM

I dont think Salmond really wants a Yes, he wants the rewards of a close vote. More power etc,...I dont believe for a second detailed plans exist for a transition to independence.

I'd be happy to see it happen just to see the look on Cameron's face.

Fratton Fred · 08-09-2014 02:56PM

I am pie wrote: »

I dont think Salmond really wants a Yes, he wants the rewards of a close vote. More power etc,...I dont believe for a second detailed plans exist for a transition to independence.

I'd be happy to see it happen just to see the look on Cameron's face.

I think a yes vote would be amusing, just to see Alex Salmond do some serious back peddling and U-turning.

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