Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

matthew8 wrote: »

Still the win might be a good bet. If Racing are serious this year they'll win at home against a team not at full strength. Can see them bringing in Habana, Smith, Lobbe, Masoe, Burden, Chilachava, Mikautadze and O'Connor. Probably good enough to have a good game but shouldn't win away to title contenders.

To follow up on this, here is the Toulon squad:

Les avants (14) : BARCELLA, BURDEN, BRUNI, CHIOCCI, ORIOLI, HAYMAN, CHILACHAVA, SUTA, TAOFFIFENUA, MIKAUTADZE, MASOE, VOSLOO, S.ARMITAGE, J.SMITH.
Les arrières (10) : TILLOUS-BORDE, TUISOVA, BASTAREAUD, ESCANDE, WULF, MICHALAK, D.SMITH, MERMOZ, O’CONNOR, MITCHELL.

Likely side, if Laporte does start 10 players who haven't started yet:

Barcella, Burden, Chilachava, Mikautadze, Taofifenua, J Smith, Armitage, Masoe;
Escande, Michalak, Wulf, Mermoz, O'Connor, D Smith, Mitchell

A full Racing side should beat a team like that by 10 or so.

matthew8 wrote: »

New 50 units. 1 unit on Bordeaux +8 1.95. Bets also to come on Racing Metro, Griquas and La Rochelle (who can be got at 2.1/1 this week, which is really high for a French home team and essentially writes them off as a team despite not having had a home match).

Edit: 1 unit La Rochelle to win 3.0. 1 unit Racing Metro to win 1.62. 1 unit on Western Province to win Currie Cup 3.5.

51.62 units. Decent start.

matthew8 wrote: »

How did Racing look with Jonny off? Didn't get to see it and wondering if Clermont might beat the -10 this week.

Not good. They lost all attacking shape. Goosen hasn't bedded in yet and gave them little go forward.

With that said, they still put in a strong defensive showing after he went off, attacking carriers behind the gain line and winning penalties.

Munster -10 1.91, 1 unit. Bit of a guess here as Munster's team isn't too strong, but Edinburgh's should be very poor. More drawn to it by PP opening at -10 and every other bookie at -12 than anything.

Leicester -17 1.91 1 unit. Argentina +27 1 unit 2.0. Rain is forecast and as much as I don't fancy Argentina that's just a great price. Glasgow to win 2.5 1 unit. Harlequins -6 1.91.

1 unit Western Province -25.5 1.95.

Top Team Tryscorer
Connacht - Poolman - 6/1
Munster - Conway - also 6/1

I back Munster? Madness Ted... :mad:

Rocko wrote: »

Top Team Tryscorer
Connacht - Poolman - 6/1
Munster - Conway - also 6/1

Also CJ Stander is 8/1

After his 2 tries last night there good odds
I reckon it's between Zebo & Stander. (Zebo has been top try scorer the last few years, with 7, 6 & 12 in both competitions)

Sneaky suspicion Wasps will upset Saracens who are fielding what looks like a relatively weak team. Wasps plus 10 looks good in any case

matthew8 wrote: »

51.62 units. Decent start.

54.93 with 10 staked so far. Was going to claim a hard luck story about Harlequins but can't complain after a last minute winner for Glasgow. Great start to the new season after a poor summer.

Edit: Northampton to win Champions Cup pool 5 units 2.0. They're one of the best teams in Europe and have Racing, Ospreys and Treviso. Should win 5 of 6.

1 unit Australia -11 1.91. 6 units London Welsh bottom of premiership 4/6.

1 unit NZ -8.5 1.92.

Harlequins to win (moneyline) 1 unit 2.07.