Beef General Thread

Reggie. · 19-08-2014 02:04PM

_Brian wrote: »

Great stuff.. I remember being in the box with my dad for the selling of my first animal many years ago.. so exciting.. And if he was only expecting €200 he now thinks there is a killing to be made in beef compared to that twice a day milking carry on..

Oh wait till he takes over the place...big changes then

whelan2 · 19-08-2014 02:06PM

Reggie. wrote: »

Oh wait till he takes over the place...big changes then

was an old man at the mart , he reckoned eldest lad would be a bank manager, daughter would be a nurse and youngest lad would be a farmer:rolleyes:

Reggie. · 19-08-2014 02:07PM

whelan2 wrote: »

was an old man at the mart , he reckoned eldest lad would be a bank manager, daughter would be a nurse and youngest lad would be a farmer:rolleyes:

All the money spent on educating the first two

whelan2 · 19-08-2014 02:14PM

Farrell wrote: »

We'll done, will he invest in another?

he has a mox bullock from last christmas and the 3 of them have a fr bullock between them, he is more interested in buying clothes at the minute than another calf:cool:

Reggie. · 19-08-2014 04:25PM

whelan2 wrote: »

he has a mox bullock from last christmas and the 3 of them have a fr bullock between them, he is more interested in buying clothes at the minute than another calf:cool:

Boaty shoes ?

sandydan · 19-08-2014 09:16PM

Charliebull wrote: »

it does seem that way doesnt it, at this rate beef farming will be a thing of the past,

how much is meal at the moment, is it even worth buying it

thought first its was a meal you were referring to but anyhow, was in neighbours cafe last week for bite to eat, 8oz steak, fist of weeds (rocket ,herbs) small tomato chopped to bits,and fist of garlic spuds , Total€16.50.
has 4 part time staff.
at that cost per portion, an 800 kg bullock would that make you value his arse at:cool:

ZETOR_IS_BETTER · 20-08-2014 09:18AM

Caught the tail end of George Lee on radio one this morning.
Abp saying retailers want bull beef down from 16 months to between 12-14 months of age :eek:
Journalists were asked to leave meeting, things supposedly got heated :rolleyes:
Also have been told like others (suppose its an open secret at this stage) processors are going for the 3.30 mark.

Christ they are doing their best to bury the beef industry here.

blue5000 · 20-08-2014 09:39AM

Anybody here at Navan last night? My ifa direct debit bounced a few months back.

Reggie. · 20-08-2014 09:40AM

ZETOR_IS_BETTER wrote: »

Caught the tail end of George Lee on radio one this morning.
Abp saying retailers want bull beef down from 16 months to between 12-14 months of age :eek:
Journalists were asked to leave meeting, things supposedly got heated :rolleyes:
Also have been told like others (suppose its an open secret at this stage) processors are going for the 3.30 mark.

Christ they are doing their best to bury the beef industry here.

Jesus Christ :eek:

Farmer Pudsey · 20-08-2014 09:46AM

ZETOR_IS_BETTER wrote: »

Caught the tail end of George Lee on radio one this morning.
Abp saying retailers want bull beef down from 16 months to between 12-14 months of age :eek:
Journalists were asked to leave meeting, things supposedly got heated :rolleyes:
Also have been told like others (suppose its an open secret at this stage) processors are going for the 3.30 mark.

Christ they are doing their best to bury the beef industry here.

They are desperate not to give out contracts this winter. Most finishers will not buy cattle at present store prices. Store prices are quite strong especially for the Contenintal Bullock 500kg+. However even a price of 3.3/kg will not drop these cattle prices I think. Due very poor spring in 2013 cattle deaths especially calves was quite high. Over 100K I think If I remember right.

Due to this the supply of this type of animal will be tight this autumn. If they drop below 2/kg lads that own them are more tempted to store over winter and get back to grass. Look at it this way a 500Kg CH bullock now is capable of coming out of the shed 600kgs end of March and by mid june with a bit of ration will be 700kgs killing 380kgs. At 4/kg this will mean that he will come into over 1500 euro. Lads will not sell for less than 2/kg even if that.

However for a finisher selling next March such a bullock killing 350kgs at 4/kg will come into 1400 euro. Very little margin for finisher. ABP and the supermarkets need to relise that this is not possible at present prices we would need a price of over 5/kg to think about supplying same and all dairy stock would be shot at birth.

PatrickJoseph · 20-08-2014 09:48AM

Reggie. wrote: »

Jesus Christ :eek:

Is this for real??

PatrickJoseph · 20-08-2014 09:49AM

Anyone here at that IFA meeting last night? Wondering what happened after the journos left...

blue5000 · 20-08-2014 09:56AM

I think it's all down to age. There are still a few 2012 born cattle appearing in marts, bit of a discount for >30 mths. Heifers that have to be kept this winter seem cheap to me, <€2/ kg. especially plainer types. Very hard to decide what to do.

amacca · 20-08-2014 09:56AM

Was talking to my mam first this morning, she said did you hear there was murder at an IFA meeting in Navan last night

Head was still a bit Groggy, I took it literally and asked her who was killed, secretly hoping that several "candidates" bit the bullet.

I have 2012 born bullocks - Damned if I'm letting them go at these prices, I have grass and through sheer luck, more than enough silage to keep them indefinitely, don't care if they go over 30 months…..place will be like jurassic park here next year but they're not moving until prices improve.

blue5000 · 20-08-2014 09:57AM

ZETOR_IS_BETTER wrote: »

Caught the tail end of George Lee on radio one this morning.
Abp saying retailers want bull beef down from 16 months to between 12-14 months of age :eek:
Journalists were asked to leave meeting, things supposedly got heated :rolleyes:
Also have been told like others (suppose its an open secret at this stage) processors are going for the 3.30 mark.

Christ they are doing their best to bury the beef industry here.

Horses were a good trade at puc fair:(

Damo810 · 20-08-2014 09:58AM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

At 4/kg this will mean that he will come into over 1500 euro. Lads will not sell for less than 2/kg even if that.

Will we ever see 4/kg though? Talking of 3.30/kg and we're under 30K kill for how many weeks now?

Also how many lads have enough silage to keep those animals? Many of them 'have to go'.

Farmer Pudsey · 20-08-2014 10:10AM

Damo810 wrote: »

Will we ever see 4/kg though? Talking of 3.30/kg and we're under 30K kill for how many weeks now?

Also how many lads have enough silage to keep those animals? Many of them 'have to go'.

Yes many would have to go but many can store as well. Lots of farmer may chose to hold some. Remember lots of beef farmers are part time and can carry them. Loads of silage and hay around and it is a great year for wet farms taht normall struggle. Most have build up there silage stocks and straw is cheap. Also while ration will be cheaper than the last few years for finishers it will also drop for those who store. These bullocks on average silage with a high DM( 63-67 DMD over 35DM) with 2kgs of a good ration can be stored for a cost of 1.5/day. If your winter is 130days and with a 6 week compensatory period of 42 days you could over winter for 180 euro. Using hay it may well come in 30-50 euro/head less.

Remember lots of hay can be bought for 25/bale west of the shannon which is a change to previous years. So if these cattle drop to less that 1.8/kg I think producers will store, while finishers need this price or less to buy for winter finishing.

If finished prices this winter are poor we will return to seasonal production. With bulls priced so poor there will be an exit anyway. In reality finishers need a weak store price to entice them in and a base iver 4/kg to encourage them to even consider satying in the business.

Damo810 · 20-08-2014 10:31AM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Yes many would have to go but many can store as well. Lots of farmer may chose to hold some. Remember lots of beef farmers are part time and can carry them. Loads of silage and hay around and it is a great year for wet farms taht normall struggle. Most have build up there silage stocks and straw is cheap. Also while ration will be cheaper than the last few years for finishers it will also drop for those who store. These bullocks on average silage with a high DM( 63-67 DMD over 35DM) with 2kgs of a good ration can be stored for a cost of 1.5/day. If your winter is 130days and with a 6 week compensatory period of 42 days you could over winter for 180 euro. Using hay it may well come in 30-50 euro/head less.

Remember lots of hay can be bought for 25/bale west of the shannon which is a change to previous years. So if these cattle drop to less that 1.8/kg I think producers will store, while finishers need this price or less to buy for winter finishing.

If finished prices this winter are poor we will return to seasonal production. With bulls priced so poor there will be an exit anyway. In reality finishers need a weak store price to entice them in and a base iver 4/kg to encourage them to even consider satying in the business.

It will cost more than €180 to get him to 700Kg in mid june (from your original post). reality is, it would only make sense to take on the extra work if there is a rise in beef price, no? What evidence is there for this Pudsey?

If beef was to be at 3.5/kg next march and that bullock coming out of the shed is 600Kg (your figure) the difference in price would be €213 in the factory with a k/o of 325KG. That doesn't make sense, even before you take into account a mortality rate etc..

You've said yourself winter finishing doesn't pay, and it won't pay lads to keep these animals over the winter, any profit they make will be from March onwards at grass, why bother keeping them over the winter at all? Theres no point in saying he'll be worth 1500 next year if beef hits 4k/g, we've seen this year that you really can't predict what those ****ers in the factory will do..

You thought beef would rise this year, have you many cattle kept hoping for this to happen, are you keeping those over for next spring? I'm trying not to come across as harsh, but it just seems very optimistic to hope for €4k/g after the bollocks we've had to put up with this year.

onyerbikepat · 20-08-2014 10:58AM

I don't want to be pessimistic. but I doubt it if we will see a price rise between now and year end. Unless northern start taking southern cattle again and Russia lift the ban, it aint going to happen.:(

Cavanjack · 20-08-2014 11:33AM

I remember back in 08 when every farmer in the country was building a slatted shed, a fairly big elderly finisher said that people were mad. "The beef industry here is finished" he said. I remember thinking two years ago how wrong he was. i've changed my mind in the last six months. Maybe he was right.

I said · 20-08-2014 12:03PM

Have some that will be overage and ready in six weeks.I can store them if needs be I'm not in the habit of giving things away for free.

Farmer Pudsey · 20-08-2014 12:13PM

Damo810 wrote: »

It will cost more than €180 to get him to 700Kg in mid june (from your original post). reality is, it would only make sense to take on the extra work if there is a rise in beef price, no? What evidence is there for this Pudsey?

If beef was to be at 3.5/kg next march and that bullock coming out of the shed is 600Kg (your figure) the difference in price would be €213 in the factory with a k/o of 325KG. That doesn't make sense, even before you take into account a mortality rate etc..

You've said yourself winter finishing doesn't pay, and it won't pay lads to keep these animals over the winter, any profit they make will be from March onwards at grass, why bother keeping them over the winter at all? Theres no point in saying he'll be worth 1500 next year if beef hits 4k/g, we've seen this year that you really can't predict what those ****ers in the factory will do..

You thought beef would rise this year, have you many cattle kept hoping for this to happen, are you keeping those over for next spring? I'm trying not to come across as harsh, but it just seems very optimistic to hope for €4k/g after the bollocks we've had to put up with this year.

Factory's are playing a game at the moment. They need a huge drop in store prices to entice finishers to finish cattle this winter. My point is that store will not drop that much. The gap between the UK and Ireland is now nearly 300/head on finished cattle. However lots of plain cattle are being killed at less than cow prices so margin is greater.

If the processors fail to pay a realistic price this winter there will be no more cattle finished during the winter in Ireland. I do not intend to finish cattle this winter. Last year processors collapsed the market on winter finishers. Finishers sustained losses often in excess of 100/head. With finishers that kill in and around 500 cattle losing 30-50K such an outcome again will decimate the winterfinishing in ireland

However the real bogey is the small cattle finisher that kill 1-2 pens ever winter. These are exiting the buisness very fast. It is impossible for processors to replave that capacity as most only fill a few pens. Processors do not want to have to give these lads contracts. The other issue is EU rules are forcing processors to put price contracts in place to there suppliers in 1-2 years time. Processors will not want to issue invidual contracts, there prefered option is producer groups. However the same finisher is exiting this year at a rapid rate. Maybe 20% will exit and 30% more will drop production. These cannot be replaced.

Processors have taken virtual control over a lot of the larger finisher sheds. However this production is proving very expensive when all costs are included. Processors are not fools they need us as much as we need them. At present they have decided taht they want to collapse the store price to fill the sheds they own and rent and try to encourage finisher to gamble again.

I am of the opinion ( I may be wrong but I fail to see any other critical analysis) that store's will not drop enough to encourage this. It is a two edge sword the more they drop the more they encourage store producers to overwinter cattle, also the smaller operator like myself may consider that these cattle will make a better margin storing them as opposed to finishing them over the winter.

It also has the trickle effect from the bottom. The lad with a weanling taht is 300kgs if he drops to 500 euro will hold those suitable for the Irish market and anything of export quality will leave the country. This mean that the store producer finds it hard to replace those he is selling and is encouraged to hold some of his present stock. Which pushes up prices to finishers.

You omly have to look at the US price it is now higher than Irish produced beef and they use Hormones.

Cavanjack · 20-08-2014 12:23PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Factory's are playing a game at the moment. They need a huge drop in store prices to entice finishers to finish cattle this winter. My point is that store will not drop that much. The gap between the UK and Ireland is now nearly 300/head on finished cattle. However lots of plain cattle are being killed at less than cow prices so margin is greater.

If the processors fail to pay a realistic price this winter there will be no more cattle finished during the winter in Ireland. I do not intend to finish cattle this winter. Last year processors collapsed the market on winter finishers. Finishers sustained losses often in excess of 100/head. With finishers that kill in and around 500 cattle losing 30-50K such an outcome again will decimate the winterfinishing in ireland

However the real bogey is the small cattle finisher that kill 1-2 pens ever winter. These are exiting the buisness very fast. It is impossible for processors to replave that capacity as most only fill a few pens. Processors do not want to have to give these lads contracts. The other issue is EU rules are forcing processors to put price contracts in place to there suppliers in 1-2 years time. Processors will not want to issue invidual contracts, there prefered option is producer groups. However the same finisher is exiting this year at a rapid rate. Maybe 20% will exit and 30% more will drop production. These cannot be replaced.

Processors have taken virtual control over a lot of the larger finisher sheds. However this production is proving very expensive when all costs are included. Processors are not fools they need us as much as we need them. At present they have decided taht they want to collapse the store price to fill the sheds they own and rent and try to encourage finisher to gamble again.

I am of the opinion ( I may be wrong but I fail to see any other critical analysis) that store's will not drop enough to encourage this. It is a two edge sword the more they drop the more they encourage store producers to overwinter cattle, also the smaller operator like myself may consider that these cattle will make a better margin storing them as opposed to finishing them over the winter.

It also has the trickle effect from the bottom. The lad with a weanling taht is 300kgs if he drops to 500 euro will hold those suitable for the Irish market and anything of export quality will leave the country. This mean that the store producer finds it hard to replace those he is selling and is encouraged to hold some of his present stock. Which pushes up prices to finishers.

You omly have to look at the US price it is now higher than Irish produced beef and they use Hormones.

Is it time for some action? Picket the meat plants?

I said · 20-08-2014 12:39PM

Cavanjack wrote: »

Is it time for some action? Picket the meat plants?

Waste of time people won't stick together happened before,rangler is better placed to give the details than me on the last time it was tried.

Farmer Pudsey · 20-08-2014 12:44PM

Cavanjack wrote: »

Is it time for some action? Picket the meat plants?

A waste of time. Earlier this year my opinion was the IFA need to go to the competition authority and stop processors from controling feedlot units, and make a formal complaint about cartel activity. IFA is dead set against same. Why so I do not know.

It made a big trumpet about how processors add competition around the sales rings in marts. Where will this competition be in the next 4-10 weeks. Loads of winter finishers will not be there.

The other thing the ICSA planned boycott of QA look more and more a viable project. Can the processors and supermarkets do much more damage. My own opinion is that the farm organisations should draft a letter that farmers send to Board Bia forcing BB to stop sharing data with processors. This would be the first step in the closing down of the QA scheme if processors fail to start changing pricing structure,

ABlur · 20-08-2014 01:51PM

Top headline on News at One was about the beef crisis.

Reggie. · 20-08-2014 02:06PM

ABlur wrote: »

Top headline on News at One was about the beef crisis.

I'll get it at 6

Base price · 20-08-2014 03:06PM

Last week OH was talking to a guy he knows who has been finishing for years. He has now quit and is renting his sheds and yard out.

Robson99 · 20-08-2014 03:25PM

Boycotts waste of time. Our supposedly farming body the Ifa and AGri Minister are all in bed with Mr Goodman. The whole lot of it is rotten to the core. Imagine the outcry and media attention the teachers union would get if the were even asked to work an extra hour a month. Yet we fools take it . Time to shaft the minister

freedominacup · 20-08-2014 03:30PM

Robson99 wrote: »

Boycotts waste of time. Our supposedly farming body the Ifa and AGri Minister are all in bed with Mr Goodman. The whole lot of it is rotten to the core. Imagine the outcry and media attention the teachers union would get if the were even asked to work an extra hour a month. Yet we fools take it . Time to shaft the minister

Coveney is no genius and the closer we get to an election the more he just wants to serve out his time and move on if the government gets back in. At the same time what do people expect him to do? What is the "something" that he should do?

Beef General Thread

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