Manchester United Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread - Mod Notes in OP,22/7

RGDATA! wrote: »

right, so on the one hand the bookies don't often get it wrong on transfers but on the other they're regularly manipulated?

How Benitez and Ribery were used in a betting scamLast Wednesday the odds on Rafa Benitez to become the first Premier League manager to lose his job went from 18/1 to 6/4 in a matter of just three hours.
The sudden change of price was down to two factors:

• Large amounts of money were being placed on the Spaniard to leave his position as manager of Liverpool.
• Plus there were rumours circulating around the city that Benitez had stormed out of Liverpool's training complex due to another row with the owners.

It has emerged this week that the whole episode might be huge betting scam organised by a sophisticated syndicate. This is what is believed to have happened…
They started by placing large amounts of money on Benitez to be the first Premier League manager to lose his job – large bets on long shots (18/1) like this always alert the bookies straight away.
Then an anonymous tip off was made to a Mersey-side radio station regarding the supposed bust up between Rafa and the owners.
With news of this sensational story the 'ordinary punter' decided to lump on Rafa to leave his position. Which caused the huge reduction in price from 18/1 to 6/4 – one bookie even closed the book on the market.
With the price on him leaving reduced significantly the syndicate then put an even larger amount of money on him 'Staying' at Liverpool on the betting exchanges.
So if another Premier League manager leaves his position the syndicate will collect a mammoth pay out.
Ribery used as a trial run
It is also believed that the same syndicate may have done a trial run first with the transfer of French International midfielder Franck Ribery - again Liverpool were the club used.
One minute Ribery was a 66/1 shot to leave Bayern Munich for Liverpool but a few hours later that was down to just 3/1.
The same tactics were used… large amounts of money on Ribery to go to Liverpool were placed. When the bookies noticed the weight of money on the market they reduced the price.
Other punters heard the rumours and start wading in pushing the price down even further.
The syndicate then put even more money on him Staying with Bayern.
They then wait until the transfer windows shuts on the 31st August to collect their winnings.
The major firms and exchanges are aware of the potential for people to manipulate these types of markets – this kind of betting is not illegal. But with betting becoming more high profile the authorities are likely to step up their efforts to stop this happening again.