Wind farms - ugly truths

Fabo wrote: »

Well, you can only get data in Ireland on grid accepted power so you cant see the whole picture as its "confidential" so no, we dont know what the true capacity factors are.

At the very least you can work out the average capacity factor across the fleet over one year by taking the GWh generated and dividing it by the GW of capacity. Simples.

Fabo wrote: »

data available only for power taken by SEMO so wouldnt be true capacity factor

Meaning? I'm only interested in generation that they're paid for.

Fabo wrote: »

its difficult to get data on reserve generation as its considered confidential. capacity payments get be got from SEMO from each generator.

Well, unless you have some figures, I'm at a loss to know how expensive it is. On capacity payments from the SEMO, I have to admit I had no idea the regime of capacity payments in Ireland was so extreme - it's unbelievable! €576 million for one year! Why did no one post that CER public consultation on here and jump up and down about it? The PSO levy in comparison is proposed at €327.7 million, and most of that also goes to fossil fuel plants.

So just to take a step back, renewables gets €87.8m in subsidies in one year under the PSO levy, and if I'm not mistaken around €30m through this SEMO capacity payment system totalling €118m. Meanwhile fossil fuel plants get €222.6m via the PSO levy and a whopping €546m through this SEMO capcity payment system totally €768m! I don't know if I have the figures right on the SEMO capacity payment system but wow wow wow. And we're worried about renewables subsidies??! That means real Irish electricity prices are even higher than we thought - the whole system is subsidised to the hilt and there's hardly any efficient wholesale trading going on!

Fabo wrote: »

the general idea of capacity payments is to prevent thermal plants from going bust. its another cost of wind.

I'm very, very glad you said that because it is absolutely right that capacity payments are really about preventing thermal plants going bust. Because European utilities who are asking for them, still won't say that. They say it's about security of supply - these are not subsidies, it's simply paying their plants for the service they provide ie having adequate generation capacity on the grid.

However, it's got nothing to do with wind. What are they really about? Companies that made investments that the energy-only market is no longer providing a return on. In the past, if you ran a gas plant and the price of gas went up, you'd just pass that cost along to the wholesale market by bidding in higher. Now with a higher share of technologies that have low marginal costs bidding in, gas plants aren't always in a position to do that, ie the price is often too low, or their electricity simply isn't required.

It's also pretty clear that the Irish capacity payments under the PSO levy have nothing to do with wind. The Irish government made that clear under its application to the European Commission for state aid authorisation.

Finally, on a more general level, Europe is an electricity market with overcapacity. Spain, Italy and Germany are three markets with serious overcapacity - yet these three countries have, or are in the process of introducing capacity payments to ensure generation adequacy?

Come off it - these guys are all about the market-led approach until it doesn't work for them anymore - they're perfectly happy to shout about 'market-distorting renewables subsidies' until they lose their voices and now they're asking for their own subsidies. More fool our regulators and governments for falling for it.

fclauson wrote: »

Macha - can I commend your succinct wrapping up of the situation - and hence my OP.

Wind might save C02 but its expensive, variable, not reliable, community damaging, environmentally damaging (digging up bogs etc)

Imagine spending €1B on retrofit of properties - the C02 payback would be significant but the quality of life would be MASSIVE

Hang on, that's not what I said at all.

I'm talking about Irish energy market where almost 7 TIMES as many public subsidies go to fossil fuels for reasons that are because the government blatantly made an utter balls of a policy (PSO levy) or for some reason I can't even understand (SEMO capacity payments). And while renewable subsidies are actually achieving something, ie cutting wholesale electricity prices, reducing Ireland's massive fossil fuel import bill, helping cut technology costs and reducing carbon emissions, I don't see exactly what the fossil fuel subsidies are achieving at all and with the PSO levy, it's clear the government is simply fulfilling contracts it never should have signed in the first place. Are these subsidies helping cut Ireland's fossil fuel imports? Nope, if anything they encourage us to keep the status quo. Are they helping cut carbon emissions? No. Are fossil fuels getting cheaper? Nope.

What you've done above is repeat some claims against wind that you've been repeating all along, that we've been debating in this thread, but that you nor anyone else has presented strong evidence to support. Take the very first one - wind is expensive - did you even READ the fossil fuel subsidy figures in my previous post? Please go back and do so. Blaming this on wind would make me laugh if it wasn't so sadly and intellectually depressing.

And yes, efficiency first but efficiency alone is an idiotic position for anyone to hold and anyone I know who works in sustainable energy policy would be laughed off the stage for trying to present such a position.

Old diesel wrote: »

Heres the thing - IF we had superior renewables technology - or indeed better energy technology generally - we would not NEED to keep fossil fuel plants.

If we don't have BACK UP plants - whether that's fossil fuels or otherwise - how do we ensure electricity supply on the days when wind isn't doing well.

Its time we accepted wind has its flaws - and rather then rushing around trying to change EVERYTHING - even interfering in community living and putting industries at risk - to accommodate wind.

We need instead to start working to continuously improve the technology on offer - and minimise the amount of turbines we need - and the length of time we need to rely on CURRENT wind technology.

I agree that it's something that will have to happen gradually and I agree that it's not being done properly in Ireland but the wholescale rejection of renewables by some posters on this forum is an overreaction to the situation. Moreover, wind is not the only renewable technology - people seem to use the two terms interchangeably on this forum.

Fabo wrote: »

http://www.dalkia.ie/media/energy_bulletins/vpp-DemandSideUnit.htm

The TSOs have a statutory obligation to ensure Security of Supply, i.e. that the lights stay on.

The traditional approach of ensuring they meet this obligation is by maintaining sufficient reserve generation called operating reserve. This operating reserve is made up of flexible generation that can be called upon at short notice to meet any sudden loss of generation capacity. As the amount of renewable generation increases, the TSOs will need to keep higher levels of operating reserve available.

Yes I know the TSOs have an obligation of security of supply. We all know that. Tell me how much we need and how much it costs, otherwise you're just talking nonsense. I'm getting bored of providing figures and references while everyone else just talks in general terms.

Fabo wrote: »

this is the single most delusional post I have yet seen on this subject..Im sorry. Tynagh gas plant was offline for 83% of the time last year and it still cant be shut down and is paid 130m to keep going as reserve. Wind farms are dinosaurs, much older than coal plants. They are wholly inadequate at replacing fossil fuel plant, thats the whole problem.

Have you read a SINGLE post of mine about Tyndall? Go back and read them now. It is NOT getting subsidies to back up wind. I have clarified on this very thread and you continue to ignore facts.

Fabo wrote: »

Not one plant has been shutdown anywhere in the world due to a wind farm.

Source and explain why.

Fabo wrote: »

Baseload plants have increased by 20% since 2006 in Ireland. If wind hasnt worked up until now, when will it work ? At 4000Mw ? At 6000 MW ? At 10000 MW ?

Source and explain why they've increased and what it has to do with renewables

Fabo wrote: »

if you really believe what you wrote then hook yourself up direct to a wind turbine. show the way and quit using fossil fuels if they are so bad.

Don't write such stupid comments.

fclauson wrote: »

my understanding is that prior to attaching lots of variable supply generators to the grid then it operated in a fairly structured way - you could predict the load and provide the generation and the backup accordingly.

Add the variable generation with a legal mandate (its in the law) that renewable has to be used first then the only way you can tempt or keep fissile fuels entering the market is to make it attractive (i.e. they can make money at it)

So these payments are not about renewable - but about security of supply etc - but they we get into a situation where we have to pay capacity payments (because they are not earning via selling electricity) because we have wind

That's nice but I asked for the official explanation. And I will add that wind also gets some of these payments, which doesn't fit your story.

fclauson wrote: »

Why do we need fossil - because about two weeks ago across the whole of fleet of some 1800 wind turbines we produce 3Mw in a 30 min period.

Turning off the whole country for 30 mins is impractical, pumped water is expensive and long term, dams - we have a few but nowhere near enough, batteries are in the infancy, interconnectors are useful - but there was a period last year where the western Europe had a high over it and there was very little wind anywhere this side of the Arden so they would only be shipping fossil/nuclear around the place.

I agree - we need to move away from Fossil (well that's a whole other argument we could get into but won't here) - and the best way would be to level the usage - see my post back http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=90582061&postcount=180

Wind is not the only source of renewables. It's the only one Ireland is investing in but more interconnection, storage, a suite of technologies and DSM work well together.

Like I said, I agree on efficiency measures but ignoring supply issues isn't an option.

Greensleeves wrote: »

Since the announcement about the stalled Midlands project Element Power lodged an application with An Bord Pleanala for a "Proposed Wind Farm consisting of up to 50 Turbines to be located in County Meath". Presumably they are going to use their land options to connect to the Irish grid now that the export project is off the cards.

http://www.pleanala.ie/casenum/PC0178.htm

That sounds like a much more reasonable plan. For a while there it was like the housing bubble all over again - developers snatching up land options, building land banks and appearing on TV talking about outlandish numbers of jobs, benefits etc.