Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

squonk · 11-03-2014 12:32PM

Agreed! Can we just stop this, I have to say it, **** about alien involvement. There is likely a very plausible, identifyable cause for this accident and, as is usually the case with accidents, it can be a tragic chain of failures leading to one catastrophic failure. People spewing crap about alien involvement are just showing themselves up for the boobs they are IMHO. It's sickening! Why do some people see something they can't explain and jump to bizzare conclusions?

Hopefully some progress will be made on this in the coming days. The 777 is an incredibly reliable aircraft. Seeing footage of the crash from SF last year proves just how well built and reliable this aircraft is so what has happened is very unfortunate and you have to feel so sorry for the sheer bad luck encountered by those passengers.

intellectual dosser · 11-03-2014 12:32PM

I think if the claims are true that the plan was detected at 02:40 on the Western side of Malaysia then a terrorist incident is the likely explanation. If the pilots were alerted to a mechanical problem that caused them to deviate they would surely have found a way to report it to the ground.

I really do hope for the sake of the families that they begin to find wreckage soon. It must be torture.

fr336 · 11-03-2014 12:34PM

Slightly off topic but hey this thread has gone that way pretty much since day 1 - what are the generally most reliable aircraft types, and where does the 777 rank in that league?

Tigerandahalf · 11-03-2014 12:34PM

fr336 wrote: »

To be fair, this post sounds a bit knowitall

It is. Unfortunately there are a few people in here with a bit of an attitude. Fair enough it is the aviation forum and most of us are only in here because of this incident. I have no aviation background but am intrigued nonetheless. I have seen several of those flight investigation programmes and it is fascinating to see the details they have to go into when investigating these things. Of course people in here are going to speculate but there is no need for the superior attitude that some show.

Highflyer13 · 11-03-2014 12:34PM

Its fair to assume that the Malaysian authorities are far from transparent.

homerjay2005 · 11-03-2014 12:38PM

Cessna_Pilot wrote: »

This aircraft will turn up eventually and all the conspiracy theorists, unqualified knowitalls and speculators will be left speechless and there will eventually most likely be a very logical explanation for the disappearance.

of course there will be, everything will be logical once proven. right now, the most likely scenarios are something like -

complete unprecedented event which seen the entire plane cut off from operation and communication and it just plummeted to the sea after the pilots attempted to land it well off course.

plane blew up mid air and is in so many pieces, that its currently un-traceable.

plane was hijacked, communication cut, it was taken off course, but eventually crashed, more than likely at sea.

pilot/passenger on a death wish and just crashed it on purpose.

the weirest thing here is why on earth was their no distress or comms signals sent, at any stage? that is the real baffling thing and something is amiss there, unless of course it just blew up, but the plane being off course suggests otherwise....

intellectual dosser · 11-03-2014 12:41PM

homerjay2005 wrote: »

of course there will be, everything will be logical once proven. right now, the most likely scenarios are something like -

complete unprecedented event which seen the entire plane cut off from operation and communication and it just plummeted to the sea after the pilots attempted to land it well off course.

plane blew up mid air and is in so many pieces, that its currently un-traceable.

plane was hijacked, communication cut, it was taken off course, but eventually crashed, more than likely at sea.

pilot/passenger on a death wish and just crashed it on purpose.

One final one I'm reading on airliners.net that makes me retract my assumption above:

Fire onboard that caused the crew to turn around, fire eventually incapacitated them and the plane continued to fly on autopilot until it crashed.

Jack1985 · 11-03-2014 12:43PM

Fire onboard that caused the crew to turn around, fire eventually incapacitated them and the plane continued to fly on autopilot until it to crash.

That's the theory I'm going on, I explored it in detail a few pages back.

Tigerandahalf · 11-03-2014 12:44PM

homerjay2005 wrote: »

of course there will be, everything will be logical once proven. right now, the most likely scenarios are something like -

complete unprecedented event which seen the entire plane cut off from operation and communication and it just plummeted to the sea after the pilots attempted to land it well off course.

plane blew up mid air and is in so many pieces, that its currently un-traceable.

plane was hijacked, communication cut, it was taken off course, but eventually crashed, more than likely at sea.

pilot/passenger on a death wish and just crashed it on purpose.

If the authorities are telling us the truth that no data was sent from ACARS after last secondary radar contact then I think terrorism and/or hijacking can be ruled out.

What options do the pilots have if the plane has electrical failure. It seems they could have turned the plane back after this with the hope of landing the plane, but in total darkness. How can they manage this? Would they be able to descend enough close to land in order to pick up a mobile phone signal and make contact and hope that a fighter jet of some sort could guide them to a landing strip/airport. Would they have enough navigation to do this?

Happyman42 · 11-03-2014 12:46PM

Jack1985 wrote: »

That's the theory I'm going on, I explored it detail a few pages back.

Would a fire instantly cut communications though? Not saying this isn't plausible, just wondering from an non expert angle.

Jack1985 · 11-03-2014 12:46PM

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

If the authorities are telling us the truth that no data was sent from ACARS after last secondary radar contact then I think terrorism and/or hijacking can be ruled out.

What options do the pilots have if the plane has electrical failure. It seems they could have turned the plane back after this with the hope of landing the plane, but in total darkness. How can they manage this? Would they be able to descend enough close to land in order to pick up a mobile phone signal and make contact and hope that a fighter jet of some sort could guide them to a landing strip/airport. Would they have enough navigation to do this?

Tiger this is now where everything I can see I'm telling you since yesterday is going in one ear and out the other. ACARS is an automatic system, it can't automatically tell if the plane has been hijacked, the only messages it sends are related to the airframe its status mechanically for engineers to read on the airlines end i.e. Malaysia Airlines maintenance personnel to ensure the flight is progressing safely.

Would a fire instantly cut communications though? Not saying this isn't plausible, just wondering from an non expert angle.

Have a look at my post at the bottom of page 62. And yes a fire would do that, it would also kill the crew most likely in that situation.

intellectual dosser · 11-03-2014 12:47PM

Happyman42 wrote: »

Would a fire instantly cut communications though? Not saying this isn't plausible, just wondering from an non expert angle.

That's certainly the biggest argument against this theory.

Tigerandahalf · 11-03-2014 12:49PM

Would a fire be plausible when the plane flew for another hour after making the turn back? One would presume that the plane was no longer on autopilot after this so for the plane to go straight back towards the Malaysian peninsula would be strange no?

fr336 · 11-03-2014 12:49PM

Not everyone has time to read back over 88 pages, guys.

Theresalwaysone · 11-03-2014 12:50PM

bangkok wrote: »

does anybody think a UFO could be involved in this?? Look at the amount of cases in the Bermuda triangle that were never explained and no wreckage ever found and the most disturbing case of all...Valentich disappearance

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valentich_disappearance

his last words..... "it is hovering and it's not an aircraft"

As far as I can see its the only logical explanation.

11-03-2014 12:51PM

Reoil wrote: »

*facepalm*

Imagine if it actually was aliens!

Jack1985 · 11-03-2014 12:51PM

Would a fire be plausible when the plane flew for another hour after making the turn back? One would presume that the plane was no longer on autopilot after this so for the plane to go straight back towards the Malaysian peninsula would be strange no?

It depends on its severity, have a look at this;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swissair_Flight_111

Regards the plane flying for another hour it has yet to be confirmed, I believe they are going on a brief radar blip suggesting it indeed had turned back but none of it unfortunately is confirmed.

homerjay2005 · 11-03-2014 12:53PM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

One final one I'm reading on airliners.net that makes me retract my assumption above:

Fire onboard that caused the crew to turn around, fire eventually incapacitated them and the plane continued to fly on autopilot until it crashed.

but wouldnt this surely have emitted warnings to both to the cabin and command center, allowing communiction from the cockpit?

no way would a fire start without some form of communication being possible, especially as they appeared to have time to change course. that island area being mentioned, is about 700km off course.

RobAMerc · 11-03-2014 12:55PM

is there any chance the plane could have been taken out accidentally by a surface to air missile and the authorities are now doing their best to cover up the fact ?

In fairness no one believes the Chinese government wouldn't deny this ( at first at least ) until proven otherwise ?

Jack1985 · 11-03-2014 12:56PM

but wouldnt this surely have emitted warnings to both to the cabin and command center, allowing communiction from the cockpit?

It is very possible it should have via ACARS, but the ACARS were normal so certainly it is, a fact against the theory.

I understand the only warning cabin crew would get to a fire would be actual recognition of one or the alarms from toilets, otherwise the flight-deck would get them - Severity is a big one in this, on page 62 I discuss an EgyptAir 777-200 (same aircraft) flight which on the ground experienced a fire, within 30 seconds the flight deck was obliterated and the skin of the aircraft pierced. Thankfully all those on-board escaped uninjured.

is there any chance the plane could have been taken out accidentally by a surface to air missile and the authorities are now doing their best to cover up the fact ?

In fairness no one believes the Chinese government wouldn't deny this ( at first at least ) until proven otherwise ?

Very strong possibility. The Chinese however in this situation are putting pressure on the Malaysians to increase there search, I doubt the Chinese have anything to hide.

aliveandkicking · 11-03-2014 12:59PM

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

It is. Unfortunately there are a few people in here with a bit of an attitude. Fair enough it is the aviation forum and most of us are only in here because of this incident. I have no aviation background but am intrigued nonetheless. I have seen several of those flight investigation programmes and it is fascinating to see the details they have to go into when investigating these things. Of course people in here are going to speculate but there is no need for the superior attitude that some show.

As an ordinary person myself with no knowledge of aviation, I share the intrigue that many share in relation to this incident. I will come back to the point I made yesterday though is that the reason I come to the aviation forum is so I can read the opinions from those with a knowledge of aviation and not to read regurgitated speculation from journos who haven't a clue what they are talking about.

Jack1985 wrote: »

Autopilot would not allow the aircraft to deviate to such an extent, if it was in LNAV and VNAV mode and with the FMC already programmed for the flight to Beijing, she would have maintained that course - However if switched to heading mode, and turned in the area that's being reported it could have then been on autopilot before crash as you suggest.

The above is the kind of stuff I am talking about. You won't get this kind of knowledge from the likes of the Mirror feed etc. IMO there should be two threads on this incident, one in After Hours where anyone and everone can post whatever they want including theories about aliens and another thread here in the aviation forum limited to those who have a good knowledge of aviation to post factual stuff on the technicalties of radar, autopilot, maintenance, communications equipment etc. It would make the thread a lot better for those of us who are interested in this stuff to be able to come here and not have to filter through the posts and posts of garbage to be able to read the few posts that are actually informative and interesting.

Tigerandahalf · 11-03-2014 01:00PM

From the Mirror......

"Malaysia's military believes it tracked the missing plane on radar over the Strait of Malacca, some distance away from where it last made contact with air traffic control.

"It changed course after Kota Bharu and took a lower altitude. It made it into the Malacca Strait," the military official, who has been briefed on investigations, told Reuters.

The Strait of Malacca runs along the west coast of Malaysia and is one of the world's busiest shipping channels.

The airline said on Saturday that all contact was lost off the eastern coast town of Kota Bharu.

.........."

Cessna_Pilot · 11-03-2014 01:03PM

fr336 wrote: »

Slightly off topic but hey this thread has gone that way pretty much since day 1 - what are the generally most reliable aircraft types, and where does the 777 rank in that league?

The triple seven has an outstanding safety record, so one of the safest airliners in the skies today.

Tigerandahalf · 11-03-2014 01:06PM

The cost of a satellite phone includes the initial expense of the phone itself. It also includes the cost for a monthly subscription, the minutes used for each call and any activation fees. Satellite phones range in price from about $700 to $1,300, depending on the brand, its features and the retailer that's selling it. Basic subscriptions generally cost about $50 per month, but these subscriptions--unlike cell phone plans--do not include any minutes or airtime. The cost of airtime varies widely depending on the type of call; it may range from $1 to $10 per minute. Activation fees for most satellite phones run about $40 to $50.

Read more: http://www.ehow.com/about_4693327_much-does-satellite-phone-cost.html#ixzz2vegOX0kx

Jack1985 · 11-03-2014 01:08PM

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

The cost of a satellite phone includes the initial expense of the phone itself. It also includes the cost for a monthly subscription, the minutes used for each call and any activation fees. Satellite phones range in price from about $700 to $1,300, depending on the brand, its features and the retailer that's selling it. Basic subscriptions generally cost about $50 per month, but these subscriptions--unlike cell phone plans--do not include any minutes or airtime. The cost of airtime varies widely depending on the type of call; it may range from $1 to $10 per minute. Activation fees for most satellite phones run about $40 to $50.

Read more: http://www.ehow.com/about_4693327_much-does-satellite-phone-cost.html#ixzz2vegOX0kx

Why is that needed here?

Tigerandahalf · 11-03-2014 01:12PM

If there was a total electrical failure the flight crew had no means to communicate. They could still fly the plane using basic navigation aids powered by a descended wind turbine on the plane.
A simple satellite phone onboard the plane would have enabled communication, no?

SpaceTime · 11-03-2014 01:12PM

RobAMerc wrote: »

is there any chance the plane could have been taken out accidentally by a surface to air missile and the authorities are now doing their best to cover up the fact ?

In fairness no one believes the Chinese government wouldn't deny this ( at first at least ) until proven otherwise ?

I'm not sure that I would have China in my list of suspects if it came to a rogue missile.

Firstly, they're likely to have quite high tech defence technologies at this stage so they're probably not going to be struggling with guidance systems. Secondly, they have a vast country in which to test them and wouldn't be showing them off where someone might see / pick up parts of etc.

If it were a missile accident, I also think that the major worry would be how China might react as the majority of the passengers on board were Chinese nationals and the fight was bound for Beijing.

China is the big military power in that region these days and it is also a huge economic power, so if it did react either militarily (probably very unlikely) or just froze someone out commercially (much more likely) the consequences for a smaller country might be quite serious.

So, I think if anyone's keeping their mouth shut on this, it's probably because of China's potential reaction rather than China itself.

The Chinese authorities are already expressing polite frustration at the speed of the Malaysian enquiry for example, which would indicate that they're very keen to find out what happened and they're putting a lot of resources into the search themselves, including military spy satellites which they announced they were were repositioning.

irishmover · 11-03-2014 01:13PM

Jack1985 wrote: »

Why is that needed here?

One thing we learnt from the tv show Lost was that if they had a satellite phone they would have been saved.

Showing how cheap it is to get a Satellite phone maybe we all should buy one incase we're in a plane crash and get flung onto a deserted island???

I dunno... I'm as stumped as you really...

mickdw · 11-03-2014 01:15PM

Is it possible that it was accidently due to equipment fault flown into the sea while the pilots believed they were at cruise altitude?
From what I've learned on this thread, secondary radar relies on data from the aircraft to display altitude etc. If for some reason the the aircraft had a malfunction and was giving faulty altitude readings to the pilots, autopilot and feeding same to radar systems, the plane could have been flown straight into the sea.

Reckless Abandonment · 11-03-2014 01:16PM

What all this dose apper to show is that they dont have the ability to track a plane very well (at least in that part of the world) which comes as a big surprise to me. I would of thought with all the air traffic and military around a kite would be spotted not to mind a 777

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

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