The Football Tips Thread V

ben.schlomo · 05-02-2014 10:14AM

Another interest in Holland tonight has to be Evander Sno anytime for RKC at GA, he got two at the weekend and has 4 in 10 for the season, at 15/2 hes definitely worth a small interest, great price,IMO.

baddebt · 05-02-2014 12:29PM

tip for tonight

Real Madrid --Ath Madrid under 2.5goals is 10/11 with pp and bs

unders has paid out in 16 games this season for ath. madrid ,
and 7 out of Reals last 8 games .

EuropeanSon · 05-02-2014 01:15PM

Very early weekend one...

Liverpool vs Arsenal - Arsenal win @5/2 betfair (also betvictor, bwin, youwin, 9/4 elsewhere)

Normally wouldn't look on Arsenal games as having much value in the win market, but 5/2, given that they've 19 points from 21 in the league, and really outmatched the Liverpool midfield last time and contained Suarez very effectively, seems like very good value.

I'd certainly think they'd win this more than 28% of the time - they are a much better team than Liverpool, and have the best away record in the league.

Alternately, 4/6 double chance with betfair looks decent too.

Slimseamie · 05-02-2014 02:03PM

What do people think of a treble of Atletico Madrid +1, Barca h/t f/t, and Roma to win? odds just under 5/1.

Atletico beat Madrid at the Bernabeau in the league earlier in the season and I think Real are under much more pressure than Atletico to get a result after dropping points on the weekend and seeing that they trail their city rivals in the league, Atletico will be more than happy with a draw in the 1st leg to take to the Vicente Calderon and I think there is a good chance they will get it, they are a very good hard working team who performs consistently while Madrid are no doubt individually superior but as a team aren't functioning as well as their city rivals.

Napoli got beaten comprehensively at mid-table Atlanta on the weekend and earlier in the season in the league they lost 2-0 at the stade Olimpico so one has to fancy Roma to win, they are unbeaten at home all season and beat Serie A leaders Juventus at home in the last round of the Italian cup, (Gervinho anytime scorer or anytime assist also has potential)

And finally Barca play Sociedad at home after being surprisingly beaten by Valencia on the weekend, they are definitely vulnerable in defence but Barca should bounce back against a Sociedad team that concedes alot on the road (5 versus Villareal, 4 versus Atl.Madrid) so I think half time full time Barca can be backed with confidence.

PuntersAdvice · 05-02-2014 02:18PM

EuropeanSon wrote: »

Very early weekend one...

Liverpool vs Arsenal - Arsenal win @5/2 betfair (also betvictor, bwin, youwin, 9/4 elsewhere)

Normally wouldn't look on Arsenal games as having much value in the win market, but 5/2, given that they've 19 points from 21 in the league, and really outmatched the Liverpool midfield last time and contained Suarez very effectively, seems like very good value.

I'd certainly think they'd win this more than 28% of the time - they are a much better team than Liverpool, and have the best away record in the league.

Alternately, 4/6 double chance with betfair looks decent too.

Liverpool have the 3rd best home record, better than Arsenal and have lost 1 game at home (PL) this season but then again Arsenal have won 3 from the last 4 visits to Anfield. I'm a Liverpool supporter and hoping for some Champions League football:)

9 of the last 10 games in Anfield between these two has seen both teams score. What do you think about that bet bearing in mind Arsenal have 11 clean sheets (3 away) this season and Liverpool have 5 clean sheets at home and the 2nd best home offense?

PuntersAdvice · 05-02-2014 02:24PM

Slimseamie wrote: »

What do people think of a treble of Atletico Madrid +1, Barca h/t f/t, and Roma to win? odds just under 5/1.

Atletico beat Madrid at the Bernabeau in the league earlier in the season and I think Real are under much more pressure than Atletico to get a result after dropping points on the weekend and seeing that they trail their city rivals in the league, Atletico will be more than happy with a draw in the 1st leg to take to the Vicente Calderon and I think there is a good chance they will get it, they are a very good hard working team who performs consistently while Madrid are no doubt individually superior but as a team aren't functioning as well as their city rivals.

Napoli got beaten comprehensively at mid-table Atlanta on the weekend and earlier in the season in the league they lost 2-0 at the stade Olimpico so one has to fancy Roma to win, they are unbeaten at home all season and beat Serie A leaders Juventus at home in the last round of the Italian cup, (Gervinho anytime scorer or anytime assist also has potential)

And finally Barca play Sociedad at home after being surprisingly beaten by Valencia on the weekend, they are definitely vulnerable in defence but Barca should bounce back against a Sociedad team that concedes alot on the road (5 versus Villareal, 4 versus Atl.Madrid) so I think half time full time Barca can be backed with confidence.

Both Napoli and Sociedad are much better than their results this season. Be careful betting against them. Sociedads away results so far are skewing the stats.

Reals record in the last 7 at home against Atletico is 5-1-1

Definitely advise singles if you go with these 3 bets.

PuntersAdvice · 05-02-2014 02:33PM

Also regarding the Madrid match.

Ronaldo is suspended for the next league match so will almost certainly play this match.

Bale is available again after injury.

Villa is out for Atletico.

Slimseamie · 05-02-2014 02:50PM

PuntersAdvice wrote: »

Also regarding the Madrid match.

Ronaldo is suspended for the next league match so will almost certainly play this match.

Bale is available again after injury.

Villa is out for Atletico.

Yeah seen that alright, was quite impressed with Atletico on the weekend so definitely think at the prices going they are worth a shout especially for a draw but losing Villa is definitely a blow, watched Real Madrid a few times at home lately and they didn't really set the world alight and if things aren't going well the home crowd will get on their backs.

In regards to the Roma Napoli game, Napoli have some great players and no doubt they should be doing better but they don't seem to be playing with the same confidence as Roma and are conceding alot of goals in Serie A (26 compared to Roma's 11), Roma have won their last four on the bounce at home so they will be difficult to beat but if Napoli put in a performance with the players they have in a one off cup tie they will be dangerous, just think they aren't playing with the same confidence/enjoyment as Roma and that Benitez doesn't seem to be getting the best from a talented group

baddebt · 05-02-2014 02:52PM

Slimseamie wrote: »

What do people think of a treble of Atletico Madrid +1, Barca h/t f/t, and Roma to win? odds just under 5/1.

Atletico beat Madrid at the Bernabeau in the league earlier in the season and I think Real are under much more pressure than Atletico to get a result after dropping points on the weekend and seeing that they trail their city rivals in the league, Atletico will be more than happy with a draw in the 1st leg to take to the Vicente Calderon and I think there is a good chance they will get it, they are a very good hard working team who performs consistently while Madrid are no doubt individually superior but as a team aren't functioning as well as their city rivals.

Napoli got beaten comprehensively at mid-table Atlanta on the weekend and earlier in the season in the league they lost 2-0 at the stade Olimpico so one has to fancy Roma to win, they are unbeaten at home all season and beat Serie A leaders Juventus at home in the last round of the Italian cup, (Gervinho anytime scorer or anytime assist also has potential)

And finally Barca play Sociedad at home after being surprisingly beaten by Valencia on the weekend, they are definitely vulnerable in defence but Barca should bounce back against a Sociedad team that concedes alot on the road (5 versus Villareal, 4 versus Atl.Madrid) so I think half time full time Barca can be backed with confidence.

don't bank on Roma tonight , Rafa is a cup specialist , and we've seen Napoli having a sticky patch in the league in last 5 games , yet going well in the cup
Napoli where as you say easily beaten last wekend , but they did rest 3/4 key players , so cup remains a target for us . As for real sociedad they have lost all of the last 19 visits to the nou camp , barce will win tonight

Slimseamie · 05-02-2014 03:05PM

baddebt wrote: »

don't bank on Roma tonight , Rafa is a cup specialist , and we've seen Napoli having a sticky patch in the league in last 5 games , yet going well in the cup
Napoli where as you say easily beaten last wekend , but they did rest 3/4 key players , so cup remains a target for us . As for real sociedad they have lost all of the last 19 visits to the nou camp , barce will win tonight

Yeah Rafa is a cup specialist alright, just seen this game is over 2 legs so a narrow loss for Napoli wouldn't exactly be a disaster!

inforfun · 05-02-2014 03:10PM

Also worth waiting for the Atletico line up.
Will they have their cup defence or league defence.

Cup defence means Alderweireld playing and for ****s and giggles do some research on him playing Real/Ronaldo with Ajax for the CL.

Slimseamie · 05-02-2014 03:15PM

inforfun wrote: »

Also worth waiting for the Atletico line up.
Will they have their cup defence or league defence.

Cup defence means Alderweireld playing and for ****s and giggles do some research on him playing Real/Ronaldo with Ajax for the CL.

Yeah i've seen Alderweireld "defending" before, ha ha, well last game in the cup (2nd leg vs bilbao) they started with a back four of godin, miranda, juanfran, and luis

EuropeanSon · 05-02-2014 03:18PM

PuntersAdvice wrote: »

Liverpool have the 3rd best home record, better than Arsenal and have lost 1 game at home (PL) this season but then again Arsenal have won 3 from the last 4 visits to Anfield. I'm a Liverpool supporter and hoping for some Champions League football:)

9 of the last 10 games in Anfield between these two has seen both teams score. What do you think about that bet bearing in mind Arsenal have 11 clean sheets (3 away) this season and Liverpool have 5 clean sheets at home and the 2nd best home offense?

Well, I suppose Liverpool have yet to play Spurs, City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Newcastle at home, so you could argue that the haven't yet had the toughest of their home fixtures. A similar argument would apply to Arsenal's away games (yet to play Chelsea, Pool, Spurs, Everton, and the failures at City and Chelsea). However, Arsenal did perform very well away at Dortmund (and poorly away at Utd and City, but in both cases had much less than the opposition after tough midweek games, which won't be factor tonight). I think Arsenal are fairly well set up to beat Liverpool.

I wouldn't think there's much value in BTTS at 8/15 (widely quoted price, 4/7 available at Boylesports is a little better). I'd expect BTTS, but wouldn't back it at that. Arsenal have struggled a little for penetration (see Chelsea away) at times, and Ramsey out with Wilshere just back doesn't help either. The two Liverpool strikers were well negated at the Emirates too, so I'd think it's not exactly a banker (there are enough reasons it might not work for me not to like it), which I'd have to feel it was for me to back it at that price.

inforfun · 05-02-2014 08:33PM

inforfun wrote: »

"Early" match in Holland tonight is Cambuur - PSV

Let it drop somewhere on the forum already i very much like the Cambuur DC which i took a few days ago @2.05

When just looking at statistics this season, it is a no brainer.

Cambuur is in 15th place but if you just look at a ranking for home matches, they would be in 9th with w6-d1-l3. Away from home they havent won a single match, picking up 3 points only.
Those 3 matches they lost were against Ajax, Twente and Feyenoord and certainly against Ajax and Twente they deserved more.
PSV would be in 11th position in the league table made of away matches only wit ha w2-d2-l7 record which is nothing short of embarrassing.

Cambuur missing 2 regulars tonight due to suspension, PSV not missing anyone apart from the couple of players they miss for months already.

Cambuur played pretty good away to Twente last sunday but lost 3-1, while PSV didnt do so well away to RKC, 2-0 loss.

The main reason why Cambuur has the home record they have is their artificial pitch. The matches they lost at home was mostly due to them not taking their chances but they have sorted that out a bit during the winterbreak by getting 2 forwards in, Elvis Manu and Ogbeche who were on the score sheet in their last home game against Heerenveen.
When looking at goals scorers i would pick on off these guys.

Might be another under 3,5 for Lass but i am less convinced for that as with vitesse - AZ last night while the odds are pretty terrible. So i will not advise this one.

Referee for tonight is Vink who isnt too generous with his cards.
Only 2 sending offs this season when he was in charge but .... 1 came in a Cambuur match (at home against Ajax) and the other one was a home match of PSV.
Also just 1 penalty given by Vink apparently this season. No no bets for me on the cards/penalties.

Daylight robbery.
PSV deserved nothing from this match but won 2-1 due to 2 bad errors i nthe Cambuur defense.

Manu scored but was at fault with the 2-1.

Slimseamie · 05-02-2014 09:36PM

Atletico getting hammered, so much for that!

SheldonC17 · 05-02-2014 09:57PM

SheldonC17 wrote: »

Was thinking of backing Madrid myself, Ronaldo available before suspension and also Bale returning they'll want to win at home. Big price for Real Madrid at home.

Easy win. Wish I backed the Racing Post with their prediction of 3-0 now though, there in great form lately.

Slimseamie · 05-02-2014 10:53PM

backed the treble of atletico +1, Roma, and Barca h/t f/t, Roma won and Barca are winning at half time and should go on and win, damn my faith in Atletico, they are known for their disciplined approach and well drilled defence but they didn't perform tonight, Real were much superior

fuzzydunlop85 · 06-02-2014 01:28AM

Anything standing out for anyone over the weekend?

Liking the look of Aston villa at home to West ham. Was originally gonna do west ham on the handicap but but think the loss of Carroll will be huge for them. No coincidence their recent good performances have coincided with his return. Villas performances have improved recently and Benteke has come back into form. Think they will have enough to beat West Ham at home.

Also liking Cardiff +1 on the handicap at Swansea. Swansea have been dire of late and moral in the camp is allegedly low. Laudrup getting the sack will only add to the turmoil. Cardiff will be on a high after getting their first league win under ole, new signings were impressive and they will be fired up for a local derby. Can't see them losing this.

Also looking at Tottenham, Crystal palace and Man City -1 but these are standing out for me so far.

PuntersAdvice · 06-02-2014 05:57AM

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Anything standing out for anyone over the weekend?

Liking the look of Aston villa at home to West ham. Was originally gonna do west ham on the handicap but but think the loss of Carroll will be huge for them. No coincidence their recent good performances have coincided with his return. Villas performances have improved recently and Benteke has come back into form. Think they will have enough to beat West Ham at home.

I'm going through the stats for the weekend games and this might be of interest to you

.....West Ham (18th) defence that is the joint 3rd best away defence in the league and whose away games have gone under 2.5 goals 75% of the time.

Lemlin · 06-02-2014 09:01AM

PuntersAdvice wrote: »

I'm going through the stats for the weekend games and this might be of interest to you

.....West Ham (18th) defence that is the joint 3rd best away defence in the league and whose away games have gone under 2.5 goals 75% of the time.

West Ham's best defender Winston Reid is also back after a long lay off. A number of their other defenders have also returned from injury. They have just kept two clean sheets against Chelsea and Swansea since these players came back.

Carroll is missing and their whole attack is built around him so I think they may be happy to go for a draw.

I'm thinking of backing under 2.5 in a treble with Palace West Brom and Sunderland Hull.

Palace are managed by Pulis so the majority of their games end in under 2.5 and are tight games with one team nicking a one goal win.

As for Sunderland Hull, Sunderland are scoring well at the minute but the only team I can remember putting more than 2 past Hull this season was United when Rooney was on song. Bruce tends to play a 3-5-2 formation with three centre halves which very much switches to 5-3-2 when they lose the ball.

inforfun · 06-02-2014 09:08AM

After yesterdays robbery we have 2 matches today in Holland

Only will take something on the early one: Utrecht - Zwolle

Will be taking the home win here @2.25 (acc to flashscore, cant access bookies to double check)

Home results this season has been great for Utrecht despite on picking up 1 point in their last 3 home matches. That had everything to do wit hthe opponents being Ajax (draw), Feyenoord (playing by far their best match of the season) and PSV (quick 2-0 up and never looked back)

Utrecht got 5 players in on the last few days of the transfer window and looked to have benefited from that against Ajax with a much securer defense than they previously had. Delpierre, new central defender on loan from Hoffenheim looked pretty good

The other 4 were not in the line up but 2 of them came of the bench.

Home record of Utrecht shows 6-3-2, 6th best in the league and you can see where they were before the traditional top 3 dropped by in their stadium.

Zwolle finished 2013 in quite terrible form and improved a lot after the break but this week had to add 2 players to their sidelined players and these 2 are massively important to them.
Both Lachman and Mokotjo are injured for the next few weeks and will be badly missed.
had an away win agains tNAC and a home win against Roda after the break but were helped by being awarded a pretty soft penalty in the Roda match.

I was first looking at overs @1.72 which is quite high for the Dutch league but i opted for the home win in stead.
Zwolle might have a goal in them but without Mokotjo in midfield will be much less effective as they normally would.

Dont have odds for goal scorers but Steve de Ridder should be considered, Utrechts top scorers and Zwolle missing their best defender in Lachman.
De RRidder is/was also the man for penalties but Utrecht only got 2 this season, 1 missed by De Ridder. So not likely he will be on the next penalty, i reckon it might be Toornstra's turn now who is scoring regularly already this season. never took him though as the odds on him are usually not good enough for me.

They conceded 8 penalties this season, 3 missed.
Referee is Sanders who i cant find on any stats so cards/penalties i leave out.

ben.schlomo · 06-02-2014 09:29AM

inforfun wrote: »

After yesterdays robbery we have 2 matches today in Holland

Only will take something on the early one: Utrecht - Zwolle

Will be taking the home win here @2.25 (acc to flashscore, cant access bookies to double check)

Home results this season has been great for Utrecht despite on picking up 1 point in their last 3 home matches. That had everything to do wit hthe opponents being Ajax (draw), Feyenoord (playing by far their best match of the season) and PSV (quick 2-0 up and never looked back)

Utrecht got 5 players in on the last few days of the transfer window and looked to have benefited from that against Ajax with a much securer defense than they previously had. Delpierre, new central defender on loan from Hoffenheim looked pretty good

The other 4 were not in the line up but 2 of them came of the bench.

Home record of Utrecht shows 6-3-2, 6th best in the league and you can see where they were before the traditional top 3 dropped by in their stadium.

Zwolle finished 2013 in quite terrible form and improved a lot after the break but this week had to add 2 players to their sidelined players and these 2 are massively important to them.
Both Lachman and Mokotjo are injured for the next few weeks and will be badly missed.
had an away win agains tNAC and a home win against Roda after the break but were helped by being awarded a pretty soft penalty in the Roda match.

I was first looking at overs @1.72 which is quite high for the Dutch league but i opted for the home win in stead.
Zwolle might have a goal in them but without Mokotjo in midfield will be much less effective as they normally would.

Dont have odds for goal scorers but Steve de Ridder should be considered, Utrechts top scorers and Zwolle missing their best defender in Lachman.
De RRidder is/was also the man for penalties but Utrecht only got 2 this season, 1 missed by De Ridder. So not likely he will be on the next penalty, i reckon it might be Toornstra's turn now who is scoring regularly already this season. never took him though as the odds on him are usually not good enough for me.

They conceded 8 penalties this season, 3 missed.
Referee is Sanders who i cant find on any stats so cards/penalties i leave out.

De Ridder 7/5 with 365 amd Toornstra 7/4, both very skimpy in my opinion, the one i wanted was Guyon Fernandez for Zwolle but hes only 7/4 too, might still do him later.

inforfun · 06-02-2014 09:37AM

ben.schlomo wrote: »

De Ridder 7/5 with 365 amd Toornstra 7/4, both very skimpy in my opinion, the one i wanted was Guyon Fernandez for Zwolle but hes only 7/4 too, might still do him later.

7/5 (de Ridder) for a centre forward playing at home for a team that is quite good at home, dont think that is bad.
Toornstra i agree as most of his goals are shot from distance and free kicks.
Too much good fortune needed with those.

Fernandez not a bad shout as he takes the penalties for Zwolle and Utrecht conceded most penalties of all teams in the eredivisie.

EDIT: De Ridder @2.75 on Unibet.

P.Walnuts · 06-02-2014 10:24AM

What is Fernandez price on 888bet anyone?

inforfun · 06-02-2014 10:28AM

P.Walnuts wrote: »

What is Fernandez price on 888bet anyone?

@3.33 on Unibet which is the same as 888

ben.schlomo · 06-02-2014 11:20AM

inforfun wrote: »

@3.33 on Unibet which is the same as 888

Well worth it.

inforfun · 06-02-2014 11:26AM

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Well worth it.

Just keep in mind alltough he scored 2x in his last 2 matches, they were both penalties.

ben.schlomo · 06-02-2014 02:52PM

inforfun wrote: »

Just keep in mind alltough he scored 2x in his last 2 matches, they were both penalties.

Has a great record this season though with 7 in 13 games, better than De Ridder's 8 in 20, although De Ridder has 7 of those at home and Fernandez only has two away. Both are worth a shot really.

baddebt · 06-02-2014 03:09PM

thinking of Cardiff +1 for the weekend ?

SheldonC17 · 06-02-2014 03:31PM

baddebt wrote: »

thinking of Cardiff +1 for the weekend ?

Cant see Cardiff not getting a result there to be honest

The Football Tips Thread V

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