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Ukraine on the brink of civil war

135

Comments

  • #62
    newmug
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,571 ✭✭✭newmug


    Hande hoche! wrote: »
    People could say similar things about the U.S. and Latin America. Powerful states tend to exert influence in their "back yard".



    Canada don't. The entire EU doesn't. When the US do, they generally do it for the right reasons. Russia is like the scummy estate in the town. You know the people, you know they know better, but they choose to act like k******s on purpose. It helps nobody.


  • #63
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,773 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    castletownman wrote: »
    I must say I am paying a lot more attention to this than I am to the conflict in Syria, given the far-reaching consequences it may have on Ireland.

    Of course, there will be political hipsters lambasting me for not showing more keen of an interest in Syria.

    Yep I'd be with you on that one.

    For some reason this resonates with me more. Could be that I've actually been to Kiev in Ukraine for a few days over New Years a few years ago.

    Could also be that they're Christians, more "white" and hence easier to relate to than the Syrians (sorry if people are offended by that, just being honest).


  • #64
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    Jonny7 wrote: »
    goddamn chicken**** Krauts.. just rolling out the carpet for the reds!

    oh sorry, got a bit carried away there, thought we were back in the eighties again

    You apparantly not only are deficient at reading calendars, at ideological systems ( Russia is closer to fascism than to the "reds") but also at simple elementary comprehension. I said Europe would defend Germany.


  • #65
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Eastern Block? Do you mean Eastern Bloc?

    No matter, as neither of those things exist. The Cold War ended in Europe in the early 90's. The Eastern Bloc dissolved as many states declared independence from the USSR.

    Really. When did this happen?

    Obviously when I was talking about Russia rolling into the East I was aware they had left.

    I still say nothing would happen. If we don't defend Ukraine why go to possibly nuclear war over Lithuania? We just wouldn't. Only if the tanks looked like over-running the West would we respond militarily.


  • #66
    doolox
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,345 ✭✭✭doolox


    Energy and gas shortages would be the least of our problems if the Ukraine escalated into a Pan -European war. Modern military technology is now such that huge casualties would ensue in a very short time. With our dependence on technology, modern infrastructure and supply lines, lack of independent means of sustaining life ( no small family farms ) we would all be in dire straits in a very short time. The people of Leningrad were starving 2-3 months after the city was surrounded by the invading Germans in 1941. With our motorways,bridges and overpasses etc bombed out in the first week and no fuel for trucks or supermarkets transport needs a lot of civilians in Europe would starve in the first few months.


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  • #67
    Jonny7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Jonny7


    Deleted User wrote: »
    My point was that in the highly possible event of Russia weighing in on the situation violently, Europe would be wringing it's hands and condemning the violence, without itself actually doing anything practical to help out.

    The highly possible event?

    You think Russian T72's are going to roll into Kiev or something?


  • #68
    irish bloke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,057 ✭✭✭irish bloke


    Where is Ukraine???


  • #69
    Jonny7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Jonny7


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    You apparantly not only are deficient at reading calendars, at ideological systems ( Russia is closer to fascism than to the "reds") but also at simple elementary comprehension. I said Europe would defend Germany.

    Sorry, which Tom Clancy book is this, I always forget..


  • #70
    NoCrackHaving
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 535 ✭✭✭NoCrackHaving


    Jonny7 wrote: »
    Sorry, which Tom Clancy book is this, I always forget..

    More like what year is this, 1985?


  • #71
    Jonny7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Jonny7


    NoCrackHaving wrote: »
    More like what year is this, 1985?

    I already made that joke... methinks he didnt get it


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  • #72
    Hande hoche!
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,967 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    Jonny7 wrote: »
    Sorry, which Tom Clancy book is this, I always forget..

    Larry Bond has one where the E.U. and U.S. have a war.


  • #73
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    P_1 wrote: »
    Eastern Ukraine seems to want closer ties with Russia while Western Ukraine seems to want closer ties with Europe (with corresponding election results). The current president is of the party that represents the Eastern parts and exited talks to bring Ukraine closer to the EU to sign new agreements with Russia. That is what sparked the current round of protests. The government has since got more and more repressive in the wake of these protests and that's where we find things
    Yeah, I think this is pretty much it.

    The impression on the ground is that the population wanted to move towards Ukraine joining the EU, but the Government decided instead to give it stronger ties to Russia.
    The prevailing feeling is that the Government have been bought out by Putin and his team. Given that Russia's government is basically an oligarchy of the wealthy elite rather than a democracy, that level of corruption wouldn't surprise me at all.

    Why this concerns us is if Russia moves into Ukraine to try and crush the protestors, the UN will almost certainly condemn the interference, and then the US and the EU will have to decide if they want to get involved.


  • #74
    josip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,058 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Aestivalis wrote: »
    Yeah I've been following this for a few months now. It started in november, and theres been MASSIVE protests, riots, and more all over ukraine.

    Police have brutally beat protestors, tortured them, and killed people.
    Protestors have retaliated, cornered police and beat them senseless.
    There's various reports of military involvement too.

    And there hasnt been a single thread on AH about it until now? jesus.

    You should have paid attention to the politics forum
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=87914230#post87914230


  • #75
    6781
    Closed Accounts Posts: 431 ✭✭6781


    seamus wrote: »

    Why this concerns us is if Russia moves into Ukraine to try and crush the protestors, the UN will almost certainly condemn the interference, and then the US and the EU will have to decide if they want to get involved.
    Russia will veto any UN statement.


  • #76
    Rhys Essien
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Rhys Essien


    doolox wrote: »
    Energy and gas shortages would be the least of our problems if the Ukraine escalated into a Pan -European war. Modern military technology is now such that huge casualties would ensue in a very short time. With our dependence on technology, modern infrastructure and supply lines, lack of independent means of sustaining life ( no small family farms ) we would all be in dire straits in a very short time. The people of Leningrad were starving 2-3 months after the city was surrounded by the invading Germans in 1941. With our motorways,bridges and overpasses etc bombed out in the first week and no fuel for trucks or supermarkets transport needs a lot of civilians in Europe would starve in the first few months.

    Are you talking about Ireland here?.Do you realise we export enough food to feed 40 million people.40% of McDonalds burgers in Europe is from Irish beef.20% of the Worlds baby food formula is produced in Cork.There are other stats I cant think of.

    Id say we would last a while anyway.


  • #77
    josip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,058 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Rhys Essien wrote: »
    Are you talking about Ireland here?.Do you realise we export enough food to feed 40 million people.40% of McDonalds burgers in Europe is from Irish beef.20% of the Worlds baby food formula is produced in Cork.There are other stats I cant think of.

    Id say we would last a while anyway.

    But we'd have to distribute it by donkey and cart.
    Diesel/petrol would be rationed from very early on.


  • #78
    P_1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,681 ✭✭✭✭P_1


    Rhys Essien wrote: »
    Are you talking about Ireland here?.Do you realise we export enough food to feed 40 million people.40% of McDonalds burgers in Europe is from Irish beef.20% of the Worlds baby food formula is produced in Cork.There are other stats I cant think of.

    Id say we would last a while anyway.

    But if it did come to war between Russia and the EU (entering serious alien space bat territory here mind) shipping would be stopped, how much baby formula could you make if you can't ship in its ingredients? I'd imagine we wouldn't starve but good luck getting tea, coffee and countless other things we usually take for granted food wise.


  • #79
    Rhys Essien
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Rhys Essien


    josip wrote: »
    But we'd have to distribute it by donkey and cart.
    Diesel/petrol would be rationed from very early on.

    Shur we have all the oil and the gas off Cork and Mayo.


  • #80
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,622 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Says I To Bridey wrote: »
    If Europe could get its act together militarily it'd be fun, as it is now Russia has the upper hand and can do what it likes safe in the knowledge that Europe can do very little except protest. A single European defence industry would match and probably top the US

    Not even close.

    As regards whether or not Russia has the upper hand militarily, that's not so clear cut.


  • #81
    Rhys Essien
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Rhys Essien


    Who was it said that World War IV would be fought with sticks and stones.All it will take for the next one will be to press a few buttons.


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  • #82
    Says I To Bridey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 140 ✭✭Says I To Bridey


    NiallSparky wrote: »
    Not even close.

    As regards whether or not Russia has the upper hand militarily, that's not so clear cut.

    It would. Look at WW2 at what Germany alone could do. Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Holland, Belgium and the rest of the EU would have a hugely impressive military if there was some joined up thinking and an incentive to rearm.


  • #83
    Stavros Murphy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Stavros Murphy


    Rhys Essien wrote: »
    Who was it said that World War IV would be fought with sticks and stones.All it will take for the next one will be to press a few buttons.

    computer says no.


  • #84
    Rhys Essien
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Rhys Essien


    Whatever way things will play out in Ukraine,but Im waiting for the day that 143 million Russians will come looking for their money back from the 100 billionaire buddies of Putin that have it all.

    Crazy to think that nearly all the country's wealth lies with ~100 people.


  • #85
    Gringo180
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,204 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    newmug wrote: »
    Canada don't. The entire EU doesn't. When the US do, they generally do it for the right reasons. Russia is like the scummy estate in the town. You know the people, you know they know better, but they choose to act like k******s on purpose. It helps nobody.

    Like Iraq :rolleyes:


  • #86
    Calibos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 7,929 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Stavros Murphy wrote: »
    computer says no.

    The M.A.D. Doctrine says no.

    Any conventional war would inevitably escalate to a nuclear conflict as soon as one side or the other was losing heavily. Everyone knows the consequences of that. Thus no nuclear powers will ever go to war directly against each other. Hence the last 60 odd years of proxy wars and a cold war instead of world war.

    Europe might help fund and arm the pro western side in any Ukrainian civil War and Russia the same for the pro Russian side but it will be Ukrainians themselves doing the fighting and spilling their own blood.

    Don't believe its even going to come to that though. Whatever about 'brush-fire' conflicts in smaller out of the way countries like Georgia where the globalised economy and stockmarkets barely register the events, a civil war in Ukraine would send shockwaves through the global economy that neither the west nor Russia want nor need especially after the global recession.

    Globalisation and M.A.D. have made global conflict and world wars significantly less likely now than at any time in history.


  • #87
    The Diabolical Monocle
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,618 ✭✭✭The Diabolical Monocle


    All ass-hattery involving the Rushkies should be well avoided.

    Leave Ukraine to their own thing. Keep well outta it.


  • #88
    Lou.m
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,532 ✭✭✭Lou.m


    P_1 wrote: »
    Eastern Ukraine seems to want closer ties with Russia while Western Ukraine seems to want closer ties with Europe (with corresponding election results). The current president is of the party that represents the Eastern parts and exited talks to bring Ukraine closer to the EU to sign new agreements with Russia. That is what sparked the current round of protests. The government has since got more and more repressive in the wake of these protests and that's where we find things

    From what I hear it seems to be more about the harsh curtailing of civil freedoms the president has imposed. It is not that it is the EU way or the Russian way it is HIS way and he imposes it. He appears to have a criminal past and the people are sick of it.

    Many Pan European conflicts have started from eastern European conflicts. Infact the first world war was started On July 28, 1914, one month to the day after Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife were killed by a Serbian nationalist in Sarajevo, Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, effectively beginning the First World War.

    Threatened by Serbian ambition in the tumultuous Balkans region of Europe, Austria-Hungary determined that the proper response to the assassinations was to prepare for a possible military invasion of Serbia.

    Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned while deputies loyal to President Viktor Yanukovich, acting to calm violent street protests, back-tracked and overturned anti-protest laws they rammed through parliament . I think they are supposed to have scrapped the anti protest law. But it has kicked off now.


  • #89
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,773 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Jonny7 wrote: »
    The highly possible event?

    You think Russian T72's are going to roll into Kiev or something?

    Well, not to be exaggerating too much, but from reading the BBC Headline "Ukraine on the brink of civil war", and also looking at how the Syrian protests escalated beyond anybody's wildest nightmares, I think we should allow for the chance of a civil war.

    In that hypothetical situation, I would expect Russia to provide arms, money and the odd airstrike for the pro-Russian establishment in Ukraine.

    Not saying they're going to be steaming in, planting the old Red Army flag on the top of the buildings in Kiev or anything like that.


  • #90
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,773 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Rhys Essien wrote: »
    Are you talking about Ireland here?.Do you realise we export enough food to feed 40 million people.40% of McDonalds burgers in Europe is from Irish beef.20% of the Worlds baby food formula is produced in Cork.There are other stats I cant think of.

    Id say we would last a while anyway.

    You think the multi nationals would just give up on their profit motive in order to hand out food for free? Hard to imagine them going much beyond a shallow gesture in front of the cameras


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  • #91
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,773 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Rhys Essien wrote: »
    Who was it said that World War IV would be fought with sticks and stones.All it will take for the next one will be to press a few buttons.

    Think it was that young Einstein fella


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