The Football Tips Thread V

Anybody have any thoughts on Atletico? Haven't the time to research stats for the game but Atletico HT/FT is still available at Evens.

Much value there?

Messi and Costa both to score 2 or more tonight, 7/1 on PaddyPower.

Manchester United v Cardiff

Manchester United are currently in 7th place, 14 points behind Arsenal having won just 50% of their matches and could be without their two first choice strikers so their poor start to the season looks almost certain to cost them their title as they have already lost more games this season than the entire previous season so if there was ever a time to play at home against the team bottom of the table to get 3 points and regain some confidence this is it. The reverse fixture ended in a draw and Cardiff have shown they are capable of scoring goals against the top teams having already scored against Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool and Chelsea. They scored 2 goals away to Man City in their last league match, however this will be their 4th away match in their last 5 and fatigue could be a factor to consider but I still won’t be backing Man Utd at 1.25 when they have 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions. Man Utd average 4.23 shots on target to Cardiff’s 3.09 however Cardiff average just 35.97% possession which should be lower still at Old Trafford but with Utd’s current injury crisis it is unlikely that the large possession they should have will translate into a large goal supremacy.

Utd have kept a clean sheet in just 36% of their home league matches this season (27% overall) and the odds on offer for both teams to score looks very attractive when their opposition has put 5 goals past Man City in 2 games this season and Vidic is suspended after his red card against Chelsea.

Recommended Bet: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 2.38 (Ladbrokes)
Predicted Strike Rate: 49%
Recommended Stake: 2 points




Norwich v Newcastle

Newcastle are currently in poor form having lost 4 from the last 5 in all competitions and they travel to Norwich who have only won 27% of their league matches however the big stat is that Norwich home games have the lowest average goals in the Premier League while Newcastle’s matches average 2.73 goals. 8 of Norwich’s last 10 games in all competitions have seen under 2.5 goals. 3 of the last 4 matches between these two teams finished with under 1.5 goals, with Newcastle winning 3 of the last 4 meetings, however those matches were all played in Newcastle. Jonás Gutiérrez could feature for Norwich following his move from Newcastle.

Recommended Bet: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.95 (BetVictor)
Predicted Strike Rate: 60%
Recommended Stake: 1 point




Southampton v Arsenal

Southampton at home are ranked in 8th position with an average of 1.63 points per game and are extremely disciplined in defense with 45% of their home games having a clean sheet and only conceded 2+ goals in 27% of their home games. At home against top opposition Southampton usually concede on average about 4 shots on target and it can be expected that Arsenal will score 1 or 2 goals. Arsenal have won 72% of their away league matches and the 2.05 (BetVictor) on an Arsenal win is tempting however Southampton have scored in 81% of their home league matches and Arsenal have conceded in 72% of their away league matches so this game is a lot closer than the league table suggests.

Recommended Bet: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.8 (StanJames)
Predicted Strike Rate: 63%
Recommended Stake: 1 point




Swansea v Fulham

This is far from the most interesting game of the weekend with 2 mid table teams who are both in bad form and looking to get a bit further away from the relegation zone. Swansea have won 4 of the last 5 meeting however they have only 1 point from their last 6 matches. Fulham are in similar poor form with 4 losses in their last 6 league games, one of which was a 6-0 trashing by the mighty Hull. The bookies have Swansea winning this one 58% of the time with Fulham priced up at 18% to take the 3 points. When dealing with two teams so woefully out of form it is difficult to predict what form this match will take. Swansea have scored an average of 0.31 first half goals this season while Fulham are slightly higher with 36% but with each teams poor recent goal scoring record this game is likely to get off to a slow start. The average time that they score the first goal is 47 and 49 minutes with the average time of first goal conceded being 33 and 37 minutes. Fulham have failed to score in 64% of their away league matches.

Recommended Bet: FIRST GOAL TO BE SCORED AFTER MINUTE 27 @ 2.2 (BetVictor)
Predicted Strike Rate: 52%
Recommended Stake: 2 points




Crystal Palace v Hull

Crystal Palace trail Hull by 3 points with both teams trying to avoid relegation however Hull have shown a very good defense at home however their away record is the worst in the league with 5 points from 11 matches and having scored just 7 goals. While Crystal Palace home record is not that much better they are favorites on paper for this fixture with their defense starting to improve after conceding 31 goals this season. The reverse fixture ended 1-0 to Crystal Palace with a total of 4 shots on target and could be a very likely scoreline this time around with Hull having lost their last 3 league matches without scoring a goal. Crystal Palace’s last 5 league matches have gone under 2.5 goals with the last 3 Hull matches going the same way. Hull have not won in their last 10 visits to Crystal Palace.

Recommended Bet: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.62 (StanJames)
Predicted Strike Rate: 67%
Recommended Stake: 2 points



Liverpool v Everton

This is the big match of the day and Liverpools first half home stats are the big attracting in this meeting. In the first half of league matches Liverpool and scored 19 and conceded 2 goals whereas Everton away have scored 2 and conceded 3 and with Suarez in the form of his life this could be Liverpool’s opportunity to break their run of 3 draws against Everton. With these two being among 4 teams fighting for the final Champions League spot and Man Utd having just got in Juan Mata it is crucial that Liverpool take 3 points from this game. Both teams have won just 3 from their last 6 and with this typically being a very hard fought game and Everton’s likely gameplan to be very defensive in the first half it looks like on current form Liverpool should just shade this.

Recommended Bet: LIVERPOOL TO WIN BY 1 GOAL @ 3.9 (BetVictor)
Predicted Strike Rate: 32%
Recommended Stake: 1 points

what we all thinking about the barca game? im thinking over 4.5 total goals but 6/4 on boyles isnt a good price imo

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Gotta love Atletico :cool:

Yeah mate, love atletico and love Rayo as well. Gonna keep an eye on Rayo's home match from now on, gotta love those defending.

jamesbondings wrote: »

lads as an aside, boyles paid me for costa to score the next goal when he did....turns out its an own goal will they be taking that money back??

Didn't seem to be an own goal when I saw it but never looked twice. I'd imagine he'll try to claim the goal for himself. Don't be shocked if they do take the money back but there's a chance they won't

magherakid wrote: »

Fiorentina v Genoa
BTTS 6/5
Fiorentina have scored in every home game and conceded in 7 from 10, Fiorentina played during the week so Genoa will be the fresher team

boom

Real Sociedad to win 2nd half 1.87- This should be a tight enough game but Reals second half home form of 7-2-0 is a bit hard to turn down.Elches form away in the 2nd half is 3-2-4 so I'll give this a go the second half results haven't let me down yet surely due a bad one soon.

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

Liverpool are very short in the Merseyside derby tommorow and have a few injuries to weaken their squad
Everton are 7/2 to win or double chance 11/10
Everton have been rock solid under Martinez, have only lost twice all season

Everton have 10 players out or doubtful