ufc/mma gambling

mailburner · 14-12-2013 11:51pm #1

There's a thread for this in the mma forum with very little interest
with most there probably preferring to watch maybe
gonna give it a lash back here to see if it catches folks attention

UFC on FOX 9: Johnson vs. Benavidez

main card starts at 1am

couple of bet for me
singles and a double

benavidez by decision 4/1 (pp)
mac donald by decison 4/1 (lads, done this on wed)

I think benavidez johnson will be as close as the last time
they fought with johnson winning a split dec
I can't see how johnson can be evens by dec and benav 4/1 so
purely for value im going for benav to win by decision
neither fighter has ever been stopped so it should go to pts either way

mac donald faber could be equally hard to call and faber is a narrow
favourite 8/11 v 11/10
its another fight i see going the distance and think mac pts
is overpriced at 4s
I can't see faber finishing mac and think there will be nothing
between them

good luck and please join in fellow gamblers

ASOT · 15-12-2013 1:11am

first bet up.

mailburner · 15-12-2013 1:14am

super picking there
well done

so who's next for you?

ASOT · 15-12-2013 1:21am

mailburner wrote: »

super picking there
well done

so who's next for you?

I done Laflare to beat Court McGee & Danzig to beat Lauzon Double @5/1

And an optimistic bet of Faber, Mendes u2.5 rounds & Benavidez by TKO @15/1

Not really expecting the second one to come off but stranger things have happened!

mailburner · 15-12-2013 1:30am

both look pretty good, that 5s is nice
cant call mc gee la flare myself
think la flare will have trouble gettign mc gee down so
for that reason im liking mc gee dec
mendes looks good for an early ko

mailburner · 15-12-2013 1:56am

looks like you're going through the card asot

i'd be amazed if lauzon let you down

ASOT · 15-12-2013 1:58am

mailburner wrote: »

looks like you're going through the card asot

i'd be amazed if lauzon let you down

Surprisingly i backed against lauzon ... im not quite sure why considering i really like him as a fighter haha

mailburner · 15-12-2013 2:01am

ASOT wrote: »

Surprisingly i backed against lauzon ... im not quite sure why considering i really like him as a fighter haha

lol sry,
totally misread that

if you get that one up ill be asking ladbrokes for my money
back on the mac donald bet

mailburner · 28-12-2013 4:47pm

big event tonite silva v weidman

going close to my max bet on this one
really think siver is different class to manny and leben
is just plain slow and past it
pays a fraction under evens

UFC Matches Uriah Hall v Chris Leben
29-12-2013 02:30
Match Betting
Uriah Hall @ 1/3
UFC Matches Dennis Siver v Manny Gamburyan
29-12-2013 01:30
Match Betting
Dennis Siver @ 4/9

discombobulate · 28-12-2013 5:00pm

mailburner wrote: »

big event tonite silva v weidman

going close to my max bet on this one
really think siver is different class to manny and leben
is just plain slow and past it
pays a fraction under evens

UFC Matches Uriah Hall v Chris Leben
29-12-2013 02:30
Match Betting
Uriah Hall @ 1/3
UFC Matches Dennis Siver v Manny Gamburyan
29-12-2013 01:30
Match Betting
Dennis Siver @ 4/9

Agree with that.

Hall on points at 13/5 looks big to me at 13/5. Waiting on Anderson for a big bet double I put on last month on him and Shogun both at 8/11. His odds have gone in now though. Still can't see him losing again but his wrestling defense will need to be good.

mailburner · 28-12-2013 5:04pm

discombobulate wrote: »

Agree with that.

Hall on points at 13/5 looks big to me at 13/5. Waiting on Anderson for a big bet double I put on last month on him and Shogun both at 8/11. His odds have gone in now though. Still can't see him losing again but his wrestling defense will need to be good.

just want to take a few risks as possible but that does
look like a great price
I can't bet on the main event
the first fight told me nothing and i have no
idea what to expect this time.
I never seen a lot in weidman when others were saying
otherwise so tonite will tell me more
I still think vitor will blow weidman away if silva doesnt tonite

discombobulate · 28-12-2013 5:19pm

mailburner wrote: »

just want to take a few risks as possible but that does
look like a great price
I can't bet on the main event
the first fight told me nothing and i have no
idea what to expect this time.
I never seen a lot in weidman when others were saying
otherwise so tonite will tell me more
I still think vitor will blow weidman away if silva doesnt tonite

Agree there. I can't see Silva not knocking him out but trying not to be greedy. Hoping he got the fright he needed in the last fight. A Barnett submission at 10/3 also looks good value. I'd imagine he'll want to avoid a stand up fight with Browne

mailburner · 29-12-2013 1:28am

having only watched the weigh ins now I think uriah will
be on his game tonite
looked very focus, either hasnt much time for leben or just
knows he has to win this fight
think its the latter myself

5/4 for the ko is best with lads which I threw in a
double with something else (webster+3.5set v van g)

discombobulate · 29-12-2013 1:32am

mailburner wrote: »

having only watched the weigh ins now I think uriah will
be on his game tonite
looked very focus, either hasnt much time for leben or just
knows he has to win this fight
think its the latter myself

5/4 for the ko is best with lads which I threw in a
double with something else (webster+3.5set v van g)

Best of luck with the bets. Struggling to stay awake already so going to watch in the morning and make sure I don't see any spoilers! Need Silva for a nice lump. A few other bets to add interest mainly the ones I mentioned.

mailburner · 29-12-2013 1:42am

same as that

roll on tomorrow afternoon

mailburner · 29-12-2013 11:27pm

mailburner wrote: »

going close to my max bet on this one
really think siver is different class to manny and leben
is just plain slow and past it
pays a fraction under evens

UFC Matches Uriah Hall v Chris Leben
29-12-2013 02:30
Match Betting
Uriah Hall @ 1/3
UFC Matches Dennis Siver v Manny Gamburyan
29-12-2013 01:30
Match Betting
Dennis Siver @ 4/9

went well
the leben fight could have been called half a minute
into it

mailburner wrote: »

5/4 for the ko is best with lads which I threw in a
double with something else (webster+3.5set v van g)

first double with darts and ufc
can do no wrong

no feckin gamblers around these parts
wrong sport I guess

discombobulate · 30-12-2013 9:06pm

Good calls. Ended up covering my big bet on Silva with the Weidman KO. Still not convinced of him. Silva's always been easy to get down in that first round and looked to be finding his range. It's going to be an open division now along with welterweight.

mailburner · 30-12-2013 9:49pm

discombobulate wrote: »

Good calls. Ended up covering my big bet on Silva with the Weidman KO. Still not convinced of him. Silva's always been easy to get down in that first round and looked to be finding his range. It's going to be an open division now along with welterweight.

I was impressed how well he was reading silva and just being
out of his range the whole time
Seems he had the perfect game plan
He went up in my estimation but I'll be putting money
on the fighter who's made me most money this year in vitor
I think weidman could be that good but I want to see how
he reacts to getting clipped by vitor first

Scar Tissue · 31-12-2013 7:28pm

You do love your Vitor mailburner

mailburner · 15-01-2014 11:13pm

treble at just shy of 2/1 (lads) for later on

rockhold
moraga
romero by ko

all look pretty good to me but not hugely
confident either

discombobulate · 15-01-2014 11:28pm

mailburner wrote: »

treble at just shy of 2/1 (lads) for later on

rockhold
moraga
romero by ko

all look pretty good to me but not hugely
confident either

Sounds solid. Where are you getting odds on Romero by KO?

mailburner · 15-01-2014 11:34pm

discombobulate wrote: »

Sounds solid. Where are you getting odds on Romero by KO?

ladbrokes

few quid i won on footie funding this thanks to the ah double you
put up
thanks

langer91 · 15-01-2014 11:36pm

mailburner wrote: »

treble at just shy of 2/1 (lads) for later on

rockhold
moraga
romero by ko

all look pretty good to me but not hugely
confident either

Followed with a 10er Mail! No pressure now mate

discombobulate · 15-01-2014 11:40pm

mailburner wrote: »

ladbrokes

few quid i won on footie funding this thanks to the ah double you
put up
thanks

No bother. 20/21 looks very good for Romero. Will be on this. Good spot

mailburner · 15-01-2014 11:40pm

langer91 wrote: »

Followed with a 10er Mail! No pressure now mate

lol

been a horrible start to the year but its all footie losses

hoping the ufc doesn't start going the same way
i'm fcuked if it does

mailburner · 15-01-2014 11:43pm

discombobulate wrote: »

No bother. 20/21 looks very good for Romero. Will be on this. Good spot

fookers ladbrokes
that's some drift

that was 8/11 only an hour ago

Selection8/11 - Yoel Romero - KO or TKO
EventDerek Brunson v Yoel Romero UFC
MarketMethod of Victory

discombobulate · 15-01-2014 11:46pm

Got odds of 2.3/1 on the treble. Wiped the dust off my old Ladbrokes account. Handy to know that they do the extra markets. Bet365 are awful for the MMA.

mailburner · 15-01-2014 11:53pm

discombobulate wrote: »

Got odds of 2.3/1 on the treble. Wiped the dust off my old Ladbrokes account. Handy to know that they do the extra markets. Bet365 are awful for the MMA.

1.93/1 same fecking treble same bookie

365 have always been useless for mma
cant resist one more
lads again
treble at 5.9/1

Selection5/4 - John Moraga - Decision
EventDustin Ortiz v John Moraga UFC
MarketMethod of Victory

Selection20/21 - Yoel Romero - KO or TKO
EventDerek Brunson v Yoel Romero UFC
MarketMethod of Victory

Selection4/7 - Yes
EventElias Silverio v Isaac Vallie-Flagg UFC
MarketFight To Go To Decision

langer91 · 16-01-2014 3:56am

mailburner wrote: »

treble at just shy of 2/1 (lads) for later on

rockhold
moraga
romero by ko

all look pretty good to me but not hugely
confident either

Great stuff Mail cheers mate

Beachballz · 16-01-2014 10:16am

mailburner wrote: »

treble at just shy of 2/1 (lads) for later on

rockhold
moraga
romero by ko

all look pretty good to me but not hugely
confident either

Ladbrokes balance looking good thanks to this treble.

mailburner · 16-01-2014 5:25pm

mailburner wrote: »

treble at just shy of 2/1 (lads) for later on

rockhold
moraga
romero by ko

mailburner wrote: »

treble at 5.9/1

Selection5/4 - John Moraga - Decision
EventDustin Ortiz v John Moraga UFC
MarketMethod of Victory

Selection20/21 - Yoel Romero - KO or TKO
EventDerek Brunson v Yoel Romero UFC
MarketMethod of Victory

Selection4/7 - Yes
EventElias Silverio v Isaac Vallie-Flagg UFC
MarketFight To Go To Decision

thanks lads
just finished watching it
fortunate with moraga and the ko took long enough to
come with romero

perfect start to my mma year, 2 from 2

discombobulate · 16-01-2014 5:37pm

mailburner wrote: »

thanks lads
just finished watching it
fortunate with moraga and the ko took long enough to
come with romero

perfect start to my mma year, 2 from 2

Good work again. Didn't spot the second one unfortunatley. Had a nice lump on the first treble and a single on the Remero KO also. Happy days. Great days work between that and the football yesterday!

mailburner · 24-01-2014 8:26pm

Have a couple of bets in my head but this is my main one and
biggest bet by far for me this year
I am pretty confident though :pac:

I don't rate caceres at all and if pettis is as good as they say
he is then it should be a very easy win though maybe a pts win
It looks like a good stepping stone for him and he is unbeaten

wineland to me looks like different class to jabouin
he's tested the very best out there whilse jabouin has
been found out every time he's faced a top guy
I could see wineland finishing this one

Best combined odds ladbrokes at slightly under evens (1.95)

Selection3/10 - Eddie Wineland
EventYves Jabouin v Eddie Wineland UFC
MarketFight result

Selection1/2 - Sergio Pettis
EventAlex Caceres v Sergio Pettis UFC
MarketFight result

mailburner · 24-01-2014 8:37pm

One more I can't resist for value alone
Majority of the experts are saying bendo pts but I don't
believe there will be much between the two and I feel
6/1 pts v 10/11 is an insult to thomson

I did this bet before I realised it was a five rounder though.
I still think it's too big though and I wouldnt forgive myself
If thomson got the job done and I wasnt on at this price

betvictor
Benson Henderson v Josh Thomson
Josh Thomson To Win By Decision or Technical Decision
(Method of Victory)
Odds: 6/1

mailburner · 24-01-2014 8:44pm

and the usual silly accum to wrap it up
pays 9/1 but I didn't look around for better
either to win by dec in the stephens elkins fight

Walter Harris @ 2/7
(To Win the Bout)
Eddie Wineland @ 1/4
(To Win the Bout)
Sergio Pettis @ 2/5
(To Win the Bout)
Hugo Viana @ 2/7
(To Win the Bout)
Daron Cruickshank @ 2/5
(To Win the Bout)
Either To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 5/6
(How Will The Fight End)
Mike Rhodes @ 4/11
(To Win the Bout)

discombobulate · 24-01-2014 10:14pm

Following you on the double there and contemplating throwing in Cowboy as well.

Can't see anything other than a decision given Bendo's recent form but don't like the odds available either. 7 decision wins in a row before the Pettis fight is hard to ignore.

All that said i'm going to take a very small bet on Thomson by KO for interest at 7/1.

Can't call the Gonzaga fight either but again a small bet on Napao by KO as I think if he can avoid getting knocked out himself that'd be the most likely seeing as Struve KO'd Miocic and I don't rate Struve.

Will probably throw on a couple of other small interest bets

mailburner · 24-01-2014 10:38pm

Wouldnt disagree with anyone lumping on bendo dec at 11/10 given
his record
I'd be shouting for thomson bet or not and I hope I won't have
to listen to bendo praising jesus christ our lord again

cowboy should win but I don't know a lot about his opponent so
staying away for that reason
he should be too good you would think and have a big advantage
should it stay standing
cerrone has been very good to me from a betting point of view

gonzaga looks big at 2s imo
miocic looked good beating big country around the place but apart
from that who has he beat?
I thought he was a good thing to beat struve and recall having
5/6 fighters up in a bet with miocic being the last leg
gonz has fought the best albeit losing to most of them but I'm not
convinced about miocic yet
I was very tempted to go with the ko for gonz also at 5s for value or
even gonzaga in round 2 at 10s but i think if might end in the first
either way

mailburner · 26-01-2014 2:02am

mailburner wrote: »

Best combined odds ladbrokes at slightly under evens (1.95)

Selection3/10 - Eddie Wineland
EventYves Jabouin v Eddie Wineland UFC
MarketFight result

Selection1/2 - Sergio Pettis
EventAlex Caceres v Sergio Pettis UFC
MarketFight result

think i'm gonna get sick

pettis subbed 20secs from the end
close fight up till that
didn't rate caceres and was counting my money
after round one watching him being outclassed

mailburner · 26-01-2014 12:34pm

mailburner wrote: »

One more I can't resist for value alone
Majority of the experts are saying bendo pts but I don't
believe there will be much between the two and I feel
6/1 pts v 10/11 is an insult to thomson

I did this bet before I realised it was a five rounder though.
I still think it's too big though and I wouldnt forgive myself
If thomson got the job done and I wasnt on at this price

betvictor
Benson Henderson v Josh Thomson
Josh Thomson To Win By Decision or Technical Decision
(Method of Victory)
Odds: 6/1

thomson loses a split
didnt help breaking his thumb early

disaster of a weekend, worst in nearly a year

mailburner · 29-01-2014 5:46pm

double at slightly bigger than 5/2 boyles

overeem by ko/tko 8/13
barao by dec 6/5

If the likes of barnett can ko mir I really can't see how overeem
wont even without the drugs
mir is so past it I just wish he'd give up

barao is a beast and although I think faber has improved a hell
of a lot in the past year or so I still think he'll fall short
whatever happens I really see it going the distance and 8/11 for
this to happens looks a bit of value considering their first fight went all the way

I do respect him and will be having a saver on
overeem ko/tko doubled with faber points which
works out best with paddy at 9.7/1

discombobulate · 29-01-2014 6:03pm

mailburner wrote: »

thomson loses a split
didnt help breaking his thumb early

disaster of a weekend, worst in nearly a year

Yeah. My two KO hopes both Gonzaga and Thomson both had first round breakages wrecking that. Went for the treble with Cowboy after so Pettis loss was a shock as I watched the prelims after the mains.

Can't see past Barao or Overeem either. Agree on Faber. He's good but Barao is still too strong I reckon. Aldo should be good for a KO or decision but wouldn't call it either way.

mailburner · 31-01-2014 10:43pm

taking this as i dont rate magny at all and always like taking
on a fighter I don't rate (less said about bruce leroy the better)
I dont know his opponent but his record is decent
and half his wins were by sub whilst magny has
been subbed twice in his last five bouts

Gasan Umalatov To Win By Submission @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)
Renan Barao To Win By Unanimous Decision @ 6/4
(Bout Decisions - Match)

works out a slightly less than 8/1 betvic

mailburner · 31-01-2014 10:54pm

one last mugbet at 42/1

Gasan Umalatov To Win By Submission @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)
Ali Bagautinov To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)
Nick Catone To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)

surprised catone is 13/8 to beat watson
looks very evenly matched to me and catone fighting
in front of his home crowd

mailburner · 02-02-2014 1:03am

One last go
put too much faith in umalatov who was useless on
his octagon debut whereas magny looked better
than ever before
catone has been cut all day from 6/4 as have
bag and patrick

UFC Matches Nick Catone v Tom Watson
02-02-2014 01:30
Match Betting
Nick Catone @ 6/5
UFC Matches Alan Patrick v John Makdessi
02-02-2014 02:30
Match Betting
Alan Patrick @ 11/10
UFC Matches Ali Bagautinov v John Lineker
02-02-2014 03:30
Match Betting
Ali Bagautinov @ 8/13

discombobulate · 02-02-2014 1:20am

Good luck with bets mate. On a trixie of Cariaso, Makdessi and Barao as well as the overeem / barao double you posted.

Got Catone at 6/4 also. Hopefully be too good a wrestler

mailburner · 02-02-2014 5:36pm

mailburner wrote: »

double at slightly bigger than 5/2 boyles

overeem by ko/tko 8/13
barao by dec 6/5

If the likes of barnett can ko mir I really can't see how overeem
wont even without the drugs
mir is so past it I just wish he'd give up

I couldn't have been more wrong about that
reem couldve finished but decided to conserve his energy
didnt matter with barao getting the stoppage

mailburner wrote: »

taking this as i dont rate magny at all and always like taking
on a fighter I don't rate (less said about bruce leroy the better)
I dont know his opponent but his record is decent
and half his wins were by sub whilst magny has
been subbed twice in his last five bouts

Gasan Umalatov To Win By Submission @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)
Renan Barao To Win By Unanimous Decision @ 6/4
(Bout Decisions - Match)

works out a slightly less than 8/1 betvic

Another massive fail

mailburner wrote: »

one last mugbet at 42/1

Gasan Umalatov To Win By Submission @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)
Ali Bagautinov To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)
Nick Catone To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)

surprised catone is 13/8 to beat watson
looks very evenly matched to me and catone fighting
in front of his home crowd

I'll learn a lesson from this one not to put in a fighter on his debut
until he's done the business in the octagon
that hurt having two nice priced winners

I knew catone was too big a price but didn't do a bloody single

mailburner wrote: »

One last go
put too much faith in umalatov who was useless on
his octagon debut whereas magny looked better
than ever before
catone has been cut all day from 6/4 as have
bag and patrick

UFC Matches Nick Catone v Tom Watson
02-02-2014 01:30
Match Betting
Nick Catone @ 6/5
UFC Matches Alan Patrick v John Makdessi
02-02-2014 02:30
Match Betting
Alan Patrick @ 11/10
UFC Matches Ali Bagautinov v John Lineker
02-02-2014 03:30
Match Betting
Ali Bagautinov @ 8/13

Thank god I had one last go, all three winning a decision
really don't rate watson at all and never understood how
he was as short as 4/6
just about covered the other disasters

Suppose in hindsight the barao overeem double was worth a big bet
but I was hesitant after last weeks disaster and the double
only worked out at 1.78

discombobulate · 04-02-2014 10:35am

Not much luck for me either on that card. Never seen Mir / Overeem going to a decision!

Catone single and 2 legs of my trixie coming up were the only bit of luck I had. The takedowns won it for him.

In hindsight putting Makdessi in against a fighter i'd never watched before cost me although it was very close.

Mousasi / Machida up next. I think Mousasi looks value at 2/1 if he could fulfill his potential but don't think i'll touch him

mailburner · 04-02-2014 6:28pm

i'm tempted by machida pts at 7/4
mousasi has lost three fights out of 37, two of
which were by sub and one decision

I think he's cute enough and definitely tough enough to go five with machida
machida on the other hand cost me plenty lately having
him backed v davis on pts and against rampage
I don't trust machida when he couldnt beat davis given his
stand up is superior but he's just gone too cautious but the
fact it's in brazil has me thinking he should up his game

a treble of oliveira silva and souza works out at almost 4/5
finding it hard to see past these
oliveira is only 1/5 v ogle and that kind of price isn't much
good to me but that is the best looking 1/5 shot i've ever seen

lump or take a few smaller ones my only dilemma

mailburner · 15-02-2014 6:40pm

mailburner wrote: »

a treble of oliveira silva and souza works out at almost 4/5

thats gone out the window
best for the three a mere 8/13 now

ended up taking a six timer to make a 6/4 shot
oliveira souza silva
with three footie juve barca (bayern already won)

cant bring myself to go with machida
I cant find anything value anywhere on this card and
am not sure about method of victory but was only a
little tempted by silva sub at 7/2
prob is I dont know his opponent

good luck to anyone who can make a few quid on this one

discombobulate · 15-02-2014 6:47pm

Probably take a rain check on it myself. Hard to find the value out there.

mailburner · 15-02-2014 9:12pm

a few guesses at 6.77/1 (betv) and 67/1 on the method treble
very small stakes on both
the price of a pint if I'm wrong

Zubair Tuhugov @ 10/11
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Albert Tumenov @ 4/7
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Joe Proctor @ 1/2
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Ivan Jorge @ 8/11
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Multiple Type: 4 fold

Ivan Jorge To Win By Submission @ 11/2
(Method of Victory - Match)
Joe Proctor To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 2/1
(Method of Victory - Match)
Felipe Arantes To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 5/2
(Method of Victory - Match)
Multiple Type: Treble

ufc/mma gambling

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