beef price tracker

bob charles · 21-12-2013 07:51PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Buying in an open market is not an issue. However if they use these cattle to systematically control the finished cattle market (supply control) this is a form of insider trading. It is similar to Board members of company's buying or selling shares while in procession if business information, or a sharedealer selling loads of shares in a company so that it collapses the price so that he can buy those share cheaper.

Yes it is hard to prove but surly the CA can look and see if there is a pattern. They can also see if the factory's bought more cattle than usual last September or if they previously bought that amount at that time of year. Also they could look to see if more than one factory was unusually active (collusion) in the market.

Even if it was not proven it would make the factory's more wary of using supply control methods to effect prices of cattle.

I dont think that they have bought any more animals that a normal year. None of the main factories bought stock in local marts to me this year, where they always did.

TUBBY · 21-12-2013 08:12PM

bob charles wrote: »

I dont think that they have bought any more animals that a normal year. None of the main factories bought stock in local marts to me this year, where they always did.

aibp bought every store aa and hex above 400kg in Sept and Oct in the south midlands anyway. Much more prominent than previous years.

Farmer Pudsey · 21-12-2013 09:57PM

TUBBY wrote: »

aibp bought every store aa and hex above 400kg in Sept and Oct in the south midlands anyway. Much more prominent than previous years.

My understanding as well is that they were much more active if I remember rightly it was commented on in one of the papers. They also seems to have gone for AA/HE as opposed to Continentals these are faster finishing and are ready now as opposed to late Jan.

bob charles · 22-12-2013 09:58AM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

My understanding as well is that they were much more active if I remember rightly it was commented on in one of the papers. They also seems to have gone for AA/HE as opposed to Continentals these are faster finishing and are ready now as opposed to late Jan.

Maybe the main other reason is that they have a good market for the HEX and AA and that the farmer suppliers cant supply the spec. They didnt buy any of those type animals around here this year so maybe they just bought all up those parts. On the majority they overpayed for those animals in the ring given the price I heard.

Farmer Pudsey · 22-12-2013 12:17PM

bob charles wrote: »

Maybe the main other reason is that they have a good market for the HEX and AA and that the farmer suppliers cant supply the spec. They didnt buy any of those type animals around here this year so maybe they just bought all up those parts. On the majority they overpayed for those animals in the ring given the price I heard.

There is no problem overpaying if it allows you to control the market at certain times of year. If you pay 50-80/head more for 20K cattle but it allows you to discount cows/bulls by 30-50c/kg and keep Heifers/bullocks down by 15-20c/kg on a kill of in excess of 30K cattle then 1.5 million is peanuts in the scale of things. This could yield a return of 2-3 million a week. I do not hold with this sh!t the that they overpaying for cattle is a good thing.

Bob you know the effect of TLT overpaying for cattle someone pays at the end. And it is not the person that overpays.

bob charles · 22-12-2013 01:19PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

There is no problem overpaying if it allows you to control the market at certain times of year. If you pay 50-80/head more for 20K cattle but it allows you to discount cows/bulls by 30-50c/kg and keep Heifers/bullocks down by 15-20c/kg on a kill of in excess of 30K cattle then 1.5 million is peanuts in the scale of things. This could yield a return of 2-3 million a week. I do not hold with this sh!t the that they overpaying for cattle is a good thing.

Bob you know the effect of TLT overpaying for cattle someone pays at the end. And it is not the person that overpays.

Yeah but really is that amount of cattle going to have any real effect in the trade. The trade could be influenced more by one or two finishers with large amounts of cattle. say they draw a thousand cattle each week from their own feedlots, thats just 3.5% of supply, I would doubt they would even have 1k cattle available per week, more like 500 which would be less than 2% of the kill.

freedominacup · 22-12-2013 04:10PM

bob charles wrote: »

Yeah but really is that amount of cattle going to have any real effect in the trade. The trade could be influenced more by one or two finishers with large amounts of cattle. say they draw a thousand cattle each week from their own feedlots, thats just 3.5% of supply, I would doubt they would even have 1k cattle available per week, more like 500 which would be less than 2% of the kill.

When a market is finely balanced a couple of percent is huge. We used to rear pedigree heifers for sale and a couple of thousand head over the country in the year could shift the price by €150-€200/head year to year. A different sized market no doubt but still only a couple of percent. How many factories are killing over 1000 head per day?

bob charles · 22-12-2013 07:35PM

freedominacup wrote: »

When a market is finely balanced a couple of percent is huge. We used to rear pedigree heifers for sale and a couple of thousand head over the country in the year could shift the price by €150-€200/head year to year. A different sized market no doubt but still only a couple of percent. How many factories are killing over 1000 head per day?

none that im aware of. pedigree game is a different kettle of fish. Your talking about a market of at max a couple of thousand decent boys over the course of the year. many breeders would control 2 - 5% of the market alone

Guys the way you talking you would swear that a hundred cattle a day is making a huge difference on price, its making shag all difference.

Nobbies · 22-12-2013 07:47PM

is this thread ever going too get back too wat its meant too be?a beef price tracker, €4.10 ak.g base price for heifers and €4.00 akg base price for bullocks,up too last friday in abp clones co monaghan.no base price difference yet on over and under age

Farmer Pudsey · 22-12-2013 07:51PM

bob charles wrote: »

none that im aware of. pedigree game is a different kettle of fish. Your talking about a market of at max a couple of thousand decent boys over the course of the year. many breeders would control 2 - 5% of the market alone

Guys the way you talking you would swear that a hundred cattle a day is making a huge difference on price, its making shag all difference.

No Bob but a couple thousand do. Factory's have a habit of using contracted cattle and of using lairages to control market> it is not the first time that the result has backfired on ordinary farmers.

If you look the kill is running 1-2K behind last year. The factory's are claiming to be over run with cattle if they are killing 2K of there own/week it is easy to back up cattle and cause a glut to collapse cattle after Christmas.

It will not just be fellas with bulls that lose, it will also be finishers without contracts.

freedominacup · 23-12-2013 06:56AM

bob charles wrote: »

none that im aware of. pedigree game is a different kettle of fish. Your talking about a market of at max a couple of thousand decent boys over the course of the year. many breeders would control 2 - 5% of the market alone

Guys the way you talking you would swear that a hundred cattle a day is making a huge difference on price, its making shag all difference.

No I'm talking about a couple of thousand across all the breeding heifers born in the country in a year. Not just on breeders farms. a couple of thousand up or down made for big swings. It only became evident when the calf registration got into full swing.

So even if it's only a thousand head a week it could be covering a days output for 2 or 3 factories in a particular week. That makes a difference bob no doubt about it. It's far more prevalent in pigs. One of the bigger processors has just spent over €2 million on dry sow housing on one unit close to me. They aren't doing that to keep up the price of pigs.

rivaldo2000 · 23-12-2013 02:02PM

4.00 bullocks 4.10 heifers. down south

yupyupyup · 26-12-2013 04:11PM

4 base for underage blks in Kepak Athleague week before christmas.
4.15 flat for underage heifers in Duleek last week

epfff · 27-12-2013 10:30AM

yupyupyup wrote: »

4 base for underage blks in Kepak Athleague week before christmas.
4.15 flat for underage heifers in Duleek last week

Is anyone killing bulls?
And prices please

bob charles · 27-12-2013 12:11PM

I was looking at prices from last year, and we were taking a close on identical price for heifers and bullocks this day last year :eek:. I taught this time last year price was a good bit more forward.

3.70 for O bulls, otherwise all else the same for other stock .

Hershall · 27-12-2013 01:36PM

bob charles wrote: »

I was looking at prices from last year, and we were taking a close on identical price for heifers and bullocks this day last year :eek:. I taught this time last year price was a good bit more forward.

3.70 for O bulls, otherwise all else the same for other stock .

Can you remember when prices started to lift bob??

bob charles · 27-12-2013 04:19PM

Hershall wrote: »

Can you remember when prices started to lift bob??

they took a lift of around 10c between now and first 10 days in January 13.

severeoversteer · 27-12-2013 04:51PM

the local speil is that beef and bulling heifers will be dear in the mart this new year,

haven't they fierce foresight these local men !:rolleyes:

has anybody any other predictions based on intensive local speculation ? :pac:

epfff · 27-12-2013 07:10PM

severeoversteer wrote: »

the local speil is that beef and bulling heifers will be dear in the mart this new year,

haven't they fierce foresight these local men !:rolleyes:

has anybody any other predictions based on intensive local speculation ? :pac:

Same here for top bullying heifers
But the opposite for beef

bob charles · 27-12-2013 07:17PM

epfff wrote: »

Same here for top bullying heifers
But the opposite for beef

good early store trade

severeoversteer · 27-12-2013 07:30PM

bob charles wrote: »

good early store trade

will you be looking for stores bob?

light or heavy ?
Bullocks or heifers?
Black/red and white or the French cousins?:)

poor farmer · 27-12-2013 07:53PM

epfff wrote: »

Is anyone killing bulls?
And prices please

€3.80 for Os on mon 23rd

Hershall · 27-12-2013 07:59PM

Talking to one factory agent today told me bulls not wanted in january. Another told me no problem towards the end of the month!!! Same old same old for 2014! !!

Farmer Pudsey · 27-12-2013 08:08PM

Heard that there are ''O'' grade dairy bulls going north again do not have any other information but if it is true it will start to put pressure on factory's.

Bodacious · 27-12-2013 10:01PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Heard that there are ''O'' grade dairy bulls going north again do not have any other information but if it is true it will start to put pressure on factory's.

that's positive news anyway

biddy2013 · 27-12-2013 10:03PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Heard that there are ''O'' grade dairy bulls going north again do not have any other information but if it is true it will start to put pressure on factory's.

neighbour was at local factory a few weeks ago 2 double loads of cull cows from omagh mart came in, i assume with the uk price being higher these would have cost more than irish animals

epfff · 27-12-2013 10:04PM

Bodacious wrote: »

that's positive news anyway

All I can say is I killed a bunch of o grades today and I got 5 cent shy of 370
A little sick here
But anyway keep feeding next bunch might leave a few quid

jomoloney · 30-12-2013 03:06PM

rang a couple of fellows re cows to day,

not much interest

simx · 30-12-2013 03:25PM

jomoloney wrote: »

rang a couple of fellows re cows to day,

not much interest

Did you get any quotes Jo?

saranac1 · 30-12-2013 05:48PM

Yes 3.70 for O grade dairy bulls and looks to be the same for all of jan

No bulls wanted till mon 6th

Factorys really turning the screw on ordinary farmers in dec/jan for continental bulls

With calf registration in place is this the key factor for why factorys are paying such low prices for continental bulls and allowed get away with it

beef price tracker

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