Can the book be beaten ...long term?

del roy · 16-12-2013 11:07AM

bank 88.2 pts
starting bank 100 pts
profit -11.8pts

I know its early days yet but to miss a bet at cheltenham and doncaster on saturday to just have the one bet in a 0-70 handicap at wolverhamton takes some discipline however nearly 12% of the bank gone in under two weeks ???????

del roy · 16-12-2013 11:16AM

facebook50 wrote: »

Anyone who says they can beat the bookmakers but doesnt mention getting value prices is lying you must get value or you lose ..watching replays for hours on end is usually required to spot what others missed and track your prices against sp to see if you are actually getting value..

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I have no time for people who spout "I am ahead and beating the book" unless they will prove it to me, I was a decent punter when I was young because there was less cheating then (I think) and I was single with less bills
Anyone who says on this thread they can beat the book and just says I have not time or could not be bothered to post my bets on a thread you can take their claims about being ahead with a pinch of salt. (I am being polite here).

facebook50 · 16-12-2013 11:18AM

del roy i have no issue with you i need people to help me get my bets on i have an advert on here looking for people to help as i am restricted with bookmakers i dont care no offence if you dont believe me but it is a fact .. I didnt come on to brag or prove it to anyone

16-12-2013 11:30AM

mailburner wrote: »

worked for pp a long time ago and can vouch for all that
I didn't see too many making it pay longterm bar the odd one
who would have a couple of bets each week and know what
they were at and were always disciplined

I think if people stick solely to sports they have a decent
knowledge of then they should at least make a small profit
I do think the vast majority of those making money on horses
other than arbers are simply people in the know with a few
exceptions like some on here who know their stuff

good thread

Good post.

Couple of further things to remember.

Normal distribution - if you have thousands of people betting on horses and sport regularly, some are going to be in profit due to dumb luck. And more importantly, although they had a logic behind their selections, the truth is still that it is dumb luck that has them ahead. And remember - anyone who is ahead for any period of time is going to tell you about it! So the fact that some people make money, even long term, does not mean that there is a system for beating the book.
Value. I agree it is essential - you can't be beating the bookie long term unless you are backing selections at prices larger than genuine winning chance. The problem with that is, although margin on horse racing is lower than ever value is MUCH harder to find nowadays. Every bookie is watching every other, and they are watching the exchanges like hawks. Gone are the days of some old duffer with a hangover going 16/1 about a horse that was 8s everywhere else.

facebook50 · 16-12-2013 11:33AM

You are spot on with you comment on value i dont agree wit the first part anyone ahead just from being lucky will lose in the long term that is a fact luck is short term to judge if they are any good a large sample of bets needs to be looked at

del roy · 16-12-2013 11:45AM

ok facebook no problem I was not getting at you.

flutered · 16-12-2013 12:22PM

back in the day, i never had a bet on english racing, well i did but on the average of once every two years, then i would have to to be told something, i used to work only the southern irish racing circut, i never bet the dublin or n ireland circuts, very rarely the flat 95% n.h. there was no sports betting back then, betting was basic back then, the big sp gambles were pulled and losst, take for instance i was in clonmel the day that kilmylor won and the books were hit, a guy spent the day in the fone booth, yes there was only one, i did not know the only thing that i found out of place that day was cathal finnegan riding a horse for paddy ryan lampton, the same harse was tuned to the last. that was the difference between now and then, nowdays the betting is so spread out that it it hard to give it all ones concentration. back then the number of dacing days were not many so oppertunitys to place horses were scarce, one of the tried and trusred scources was a horse which was going well at the front in a bumper at a mile and a half would will a maiden hurdle, another was to be on the course near the winning post when the trainers and jockeys were having a chat after walking the course before racing, so it was necessary to be at the course at least one and a half hours before racing, more anon

Lapin · 16-12-2013 12:55PM

Follow long term trends rather than individual horses.

Stick to backing only favourites in non handicap 2yo races at Goodwood.

In 10 years time you'll be filthy rich.

Clonsuttonlad · 16-12-2013 01:34PM

Instead of backing horses you think are certain of winning (at a low price), back horses that have a chance of winning at bigger odds. It pays to oppose even money favourites in certain situations.
It's also a less frustrating way to gamble as you are not relying on every bet you make winning.
I would also say to avoid Irish raiders to Britain. Follow trainer trends at tracks. I.e don't back a Prescott horse in
Scotland. Watch out for local trainers at
smaller tracks. I agree with backing the
fav in good quality maidens. Don't back
horse fto unless trained by Aiden O brien. Pay close attention to big yards. Look out for big Coolmore purchases.
Don't back Jp McManus horses unless marquee handicap. Stay away from Tony Martin's horses. Watch out for David Wachman at his preferred tracks. Back Weld in Galway. Watch out for Eavans gambles on All Weather. Don't back in Kempton.

Lapin · 16-12-2013 01:44PM

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

Back Weld in Galway.

Picking the right Weld horse at the festival is as much a problem as picking a winner elsewhere.

kiers47 · 16-12-2013 01:46PM

I would suggest never backing Mark Prescott horses full stop. They are always overbet and the bookies always under price them when it is apparent they have just been schooled for a mark.

16-12-2013 01:53PM

facebook50 wrote: »

You are spot on with you comment on value i dont agree wit the first part anyone ahead just from being lucky will lose in the long term that is a fact luck is short term to judge if they are any good a large sample of bets needs to be looked at

Think of punters like monkeys typing shakespeare. If you get enough of them, backing enough horses, a certain % are going to be ahead of the bookie by sheer luck.

All I am saying is that the fact of being ahead does not mean the existence of a repeatable system for beating the book.

16-12-2013 01:56PM

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

Instead of backing horses you think are certain of winning (at a low price), back horses that have a chance of winning at bigger odds. It pays to oppose even money favourites in certain situations.
It's also a less frustrating way to gamble as you are not relying on every bet you make winning.
I would also say to avoid Irish raiders to Britain. Follow trainer trends at tracks. I.e don't back a Prescott horse in
Scotland. Watch out for local trainers at
smaller tracks. I agree with backing the
fav in good quality maidens. Don't back
horse fto unless trained by Aiden O brien. Pay close attention to big yards. Look out for big Coolmore purchases.
Don't back Jp McManus horses unless marquee handicap. Stay away from Tony Martin's horses. Watch out for David Wachman at his preferred tracks. Back Weld in Galway. Watch out for Eavans gambles on All Weather. Don't back in Kempton.

the trouble with advice like this is - do you really think the bookies don't know and take account of these things?

I can't accept there are any 'rules' that are not already factored into prices.

maalummoja · 16-12-2013 02:02PM

play roulette, only bet on red or black and alwasys treble your stake. as long as you can cover your bets you will be fine, usually have to go to several places as its a sure fire way to get shown the door. Once you win start small again.

As betting on anything , just dont get greddy. Look at the post titel, beating the book

BQQ · 16-12-2013 02:16PM

maalummoja wrote: »

play roulette, only bet on red or black and alwasys treble your stake. as long as you can cover your bets you will be fine, usually have to go to several places as its a sure fire way to get shown the door. Once you win start small again.

Sorry, but this is awful advice and will end in disaster.

You'd need to be a millionaire to have the bankroll to cover a bad run not to mention the bottle to put such a bet on a roulette spin.
Casino might limit stakes too.

FortuneChip · 16-12-2013 02:22PM

maalummoja wrote: »

play roulette, only bet on red or black and alwasys treble your stake. as long as you can cover your bets you will be fine, usually have to go to several places as its a sure fire way to get shown the door. Once you win start small again.

Absolutely foolproof!
Aside from the need for a ridiculous bankroll, table limits, and the edge the house takes with "0" or "00"

Stoke might beat Chelsea, but they're not gonna win the league.

maalummoja · 16-12-2013 02:23PM

aint ever gone more than 6 spins on colours. I do it all the time. as i say dont get greedy , a bit like arb as the amounts will small but consistant.
Forgot to mention max limits , but yes check them out.

I have yet to lose from this but have been f**ked out of a few places. To be honest its just the thrill of beating the house. Once i win i go back down to my original stake. Usually stake with 5 EUR and have a deep enough pockets.

http://www.rouletteedu.com/european-roulette.php

Colonel Sanders · 16-12-2013 03:11PM

maalummoja wrote: »

aint ever gone more than 6 spins on colours.

You forgot the words "yet" & "in MY experience"

In 1913 black came up 26 times in a row in a Monte Carlo casino. Wouldn't be a nice time to be trying a Martingale strategy on red. And I'll get in before you comment "ah but it won't happen again"

I hope no one takes his advice seriously, unless there's a scam going on every spin of a roulette wheel has -ive EV for the punter end of story

kiers47 · 16-12-2013 03:18PM

I worked in a casino in Vanocuver about 5-6 years ago while young and not giving a ****e was there on a 1 year(drink the **** out of it) visa.
If you believe that you can make money this way you are delusional.

I have seen sequences of 16 twice as well as 10+ dozens of times.

**Also on a slightly related note one night i seen the number 8 come up 5 times in a row.

maalummoja · 16-12-2013 03:23PM

click the link above and play using units of 5 on one colour only. start with 5,15,45 and so on. when red comes up go back to 5. if you lose ill eat my shorts.

BQQ · 16-12-2013 04:47PM

maalummoja wrote: »

click the link above and play using units of 5 on one colour only. start with 5,15,45 and so on. when red comes up go back to 5. if you lose ill eat my shorts.

Hope they're the edible kind.

I was playing all of 3-4 mins when 6 reds in a row came up. Didn't have bankroll for the next bet.

If you're seriously doing this, I advise you to stop immediately or you WILL go broke.

Colonel Sanders · 16-12-2013 05:58PM

maalummoja wrote: »

click the link above and play using units of 5 on one colour only. start with 5,15,45 and so on. when red comes up go back to 5. if you lose ill eat my shorts.

If we assume a wheel with 37 numbers (i.e. No double zero) then if we spin the wheel a large number of times then we can expect not to get red 6 times in a row 1 time in 54

If it's a wheel with 38 numbers then this falls to 1 time in 47. Basically be prepared to "eat your shorts" more often than you think.

I strongly urge you to google "martingale betting strategy" & the optimal stopping theorem

mdwexford · 16-12-2013 09:10PM

Thought he was joking at first.

Take your nonsense to the gambling forum or something.

I'd suggest not posting it anywhere ever again though.

Lapin · 16-12-2013 09:13PM

Just played five spins of the European Roulette wheel above. Only down a tenner but the numbers were 21 23 21 19 17 in that order, which leaves me suspicious straight away.

Its a bit of crack to pass a few minutes of boredom when its free.

But I wouldn't go near it with real money.

redzerdrog · 16-12-2013 09:15PM

mdwexford wrote: »

Thought he was joking at first.

Take your nonsense to the gambling forum or something.

I'd suggest not posting it anywhere ever again though.

I honestly thought he was taking the piss

The mind does boggle at times

del roy · 17-12-2013 09:08AM

ah lads this is about horse racing if you want to talk about spinninng the wheel start another thread.

d-gal · 17-12-2013 09:11AM

del roy wrote: »

ah lads this is about horse racing if you want to talk about spinninng the wheel start another thread.

Pot. Kettle. Black. If you want to start a betting log then do it in another thread!

flutered · 17-12-2013 09:53AM

in my day nass was known as the punters graveyard, dunno about today.

shamdrog63 · 17-12-2013 09:56AM

I read somewhere that there is a small profit to be made in
backing the favs in bumper races in Ireland.If you are THAT
disciplined then you deserve to make a profit, the trouble is that
most of us bet because we crave the warm fuzzy feeling we get
when our judgement is proved to be spot on and our selection wins.
Most of us are not gamblers, we are horse racing fans...we love the
game.It is said that man needs the adrenalin rush he would have
gotten in prehistoric days from hunting and being hunted and the buzz of
winning satisfies that deep seated need.There is no fun in trying to make racing pay because if necessitates us surpressing our natural urge to gamble.

facebook50 · 17-12-2013 09:20PM

sham no offence but that is rubbish

Can the book be beaten ...long term?

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