Can the book be beaten ...long term?

mr.jingle

CueCard7 wrote: »

But if I don't bet on a race it won't let me see it online.

I'm in profit.

Just follow my tips in tip thread you'll see that im in profit

For the moment you may be in profit i've seen your selections the world knows you got a 23/1 forecast up well done on that but if your betting because you want to watch a race online then you are heading in the wrong direction! Believe me i've been there and it's a road you want to go.

I can't give you anymore advice than that

Hulk Hands

Motivator wrote: »

Having worked in the industry for a long number of years I can honestly say I have never seen a serious punter in profit long term. My brother has also worked in the industry but is now a full time Betfair layer/punter. In over 20 years of watching/working in the betting industry I have never seen a better judge of a horse or a horse race than him. He set up a Betfair account about 7 years ago & for the first year he was ahead (iirc) about €17,000. Since then he has been losing thousands every year, I can tell you if he can't make long term profits doing what he's doing then nobody can - I don't care what anyone says.

I've seen people have €1,000s on horses & I've seen people have €1. Regardless of stakes, the punter cannot sustain a constant level of profit no natter what information or knowledge they think they have.

If nobody can consistently win then how come accounts are being restricted and closed left right and centre? These accounts aren't being stopped if the punter is losing money or consistently putting on - ev selections. The betfair model alone should tell you how many people are winning. If it's punter vs punter, and the book is only taking 5%commission, then logic states that some of them must be winning. Granted the majority are losing and a few of the bigger hitters are taking a lot of the profit, but it still means some are winning and it's by no means impossible or even rare.

Maybe some others here are shy about claiming their winners. At the risk of inflating heads, the likes of Colonel is certainly ahead if he's as nitpicky as he suggests on here. Certainly his powers and vc weren't closed for no reason. There's a few others I suspect aswell on here. It's near impossible to make a living from gambling unless you're something special at sports/probability and have some sort of Patrick vietch setup in order to get bets on. However, it is possible to win a small amount consistently if you're picky on price, understand the industry and have a reasonable understanding of probability and sports

Francie Barrett

Back in my youth, I probably lost a few thousand a year. Nowadays, I would say that I break even and might bet on 10 horses a week as opposed to 100 before. I think a few other factors are at play in improving my returns. Simply betting on less horses is the first one. Cutting the amount I bet with drastically is the next. Having access to online betting is another one. Betfair accounts for maybe half my bets now, very often you're better off with the exchange for big priced horses. Getting early prices with traditional bookies also helps.

I would say if I stuck to just having 2-3 bets a week, I'd say I would make a small profit.

liamoreilly

...hope this isn't derailing thread too much...
...with regards to long term profit, I'm sure it can be done... I know I'm up each of the last 3 years (possibly 4/5), admittedly it was due to the big festivals( mostly Cheltenham), and one or two well timed tips... I definitely am not a pro, and wouldn't say ill continually win every year, not a hope I will to be honest...
...But I've been up in last 5 cheltenhams, and I reckon if I only backed during them 4 days each year I'd die in profit...I think as long as your disciplined, you can defitinitely be up...
...I'd say the main contributors, rossom, jimjackos, aidankk and that genius urban sea would be up, at least one of them.. and im 99% sure someone on irishpokerboards is up as well...He did own our conor and bitched about him at 33/1 for 6 months,..he also has a knowledge of horses that ive never known is possible...



Also to add, when it comes to sports betting not horses, I'm also up...And I know several people who are up a huge amount in this...things like soccer, snooker, boxing tennis and darts are all sports that are extremely possible to win at consistently...

jimjamcos

liamoreilly wrote: »

...hope this isn't derailing thread too much...
...with regards to long term profit, I'm sure it can be done... I know I'm up each of the last 3 years (possibly 4/5), admittedly it was due to the big festivals( mostly Cheltenham), and one or two well timed tips... I definitely am not a pro, and wouldn't say ill continually win every year, not a hope I will to be honest...
...But I've been up in last 5 cheltenhams, and I reckon if I only backed during them 4 days each year I'd die in profit...I think as long as your disciplined, you can defitinitely be up...
...I'd say the main contributors, rossom, jimjackos, aidankk and that genius urban sea would be up, at least one of them.. and im 99% sure someone on irishpokerboards is up as well...He did own our conor and bitched about him at 33/1 for 6 months,..he also has a knowledge of horses that ive never known is possible...



Also to add, when it comes to sports betting not horses, I'm also up...And I know several people who are up a huge amount in this...things like soccer, snooker, boxing tennis and darts are all sports that are extremely possible to win at consistently...

Noel Hayes is his name, I think. Works for the Irish Tote and takes part in a weekly podcast called 'The Final Furlong' along with Kevin Blake and a few others. He's very knowledgeable alright and himself and the podcast are well worth a follow (good banter on it too). He gave very good word for Meade & JP's bumper winner over the weekend, only problem was he tipped it for Sunday not Saturday and I missed it!

Harry Angstrom

Keeping a strict leger of your bets is a very good way of maintaining discipline. It's easy enough to forget the losers and remember the winners. If you record every bet, you'll be far less likely to have wild speculative bets on horses you don't really fancy.

hucklebuck

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Keeping a strict leger of your bets is a very good way of maintaining discipline. It's easy enough to forget the losers and remember the winners. If you record every bet, you'll be far less likely to have wild speculative bets on horses you don't really fancy.

Do you think there would be merit to scoring your bets 1 - 10 with a comment explaining the score?

d-gal

Of course the bookies can be beaten. Some of the stuff people are saying is nothing short of ridiculous.
I know 8 or 9 people that live off their gambling money and they all have different ways of doing it.

The 2 best at it are completely different. One is a dog specialist. Works off 3 tracks and makes a small fortune each time. That's all by information.
The other backs specials with different betting firms or slightly standout odds and then lays them on betfair. He has no interest in betting or watching the event. He just looks where he can make money

del roy

hucklebuck wrote: »

Do you think there would be merit to scoring your bets 1 - 10 with a comment explaining the score?

hucklebuck, the guy who selections I am puting up says he is a 1pt to 6pt man. however he says he has two singles and a e/w double on al ferof 10/1 king george and alfie sherrin 20/1 grand national I have seen the docket but its of no use to this thread as them prices are gone.
1pt e/w on both and 1pt e/w double

d-gal

d-gal wrote: »

Of course the bookies can be beaten. Some of the stuff people are saying is nothing short of ridiculous.
I know 8 or 9 people that live off their gambling money and they all have different ways of doing it.

The 2 best at it are completely different. One is a dog specialist. Works off 3 tracks and makes a small fortune each time. That's all by information.
The other backs specials with different betting firms or slightly standout odds and then lays them on betfair. He has no interest in betting or watching the event. He just looks where he can make money

Not saying you are lying, but punter #2 would be closed down within a couple of weeks by any decent bookie. The easiest things to spot are arbs, and punters who only come in for them, and they are the first to be shut down.

So I wonder how he gets on enough to make serious money.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If nobody can consistently win then how come accounts are being restricted and closed left right and centre? These accounts aren't being stopped if the punter is losing money or consistently putting on - ev selections. The betfair model alone should tell you how many people are winning. If it's punter vs punter, and the book is only taking 5%commission, then logic states that some of them must be winning. Granted the majority are losing and a few of the bigger hitters are taking a lot of the profit, but it still means some are winning and it's by no means impossible or even rare.

the people bookies close or restrict are (in the main) people with information. of course you can beat the book if you are good friends with a nameless trainer who lets you know when its 'the day' - and have the discipline to only back when you have that info.

they are also the people making money on betfair, although the betfair example is wrong-headed as nothing in the model implies that a specific group of people are winning consistently. Everyone could be breaking even.

on the betfair note - that's the whole reason they could put the punitive charges on people consistently making big money on it. they have no choice - no bookie will take their money.

mr.jingle

mr.jingle wrote: »

I fear for people like Cuecard, betting every race is the quickest way to the poorhouse, some of the points you put down in an earlier post made me want to reach into the screen and slap some sense into you but if you haven't got it by now that your on a slippery slope then you've only yourself to blame as you've been warned numerous times on this by others. In fact you remind me of a younger idiotic me, backing for the sake of backing and watching a race.

to be fair - as long as you know that's what you are doing, I don't see a problem with it.

I enjoy horseracing and betting, if I'm at the races for an afternoon (or watching on television) I bet for the enjoyment and I'd get involved in every race, or at least nearly every race.

I would see any system I employ as minimising my losses rather than maximising my winnings...

SRFC

This Cue Card lad doesnt bet in every race,dont feel sorry for him hes only punting with monopoly money.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

This Cue Card lad doesnt bet in every race,dont feel sorry for him hes only punting with monopoly money.

We heard you the first time..

Hulk Hands

Deleted User wrote: »

the people bookies close or restrict are (in the main) people with information. of course you can beat the book if you are good friends with a nameless trainer who lets you know when its 'the day' - and have the discipline to only back when you have that info.

No, the books restrict smart customers who constantly put on +EV bets. Whether they be arbs, or movers or whatever else. The vast majority of sports have little to no 'information' whatsoever i.e Soccer, Rugby, Snooker, Tennis etc. Are the customers winning at those not restricted? A bookie can't tell if you have information. If you are constantly backing horses early price that half in price they will assume you have information and restrict alright. There are any number of other reasons for restriction though

Deleted User wrote: »

they are also the people making money on betfair, although the betfair example is wrong-headed as nothing in the model implies that a specific group of people are winning consistently. Everyone could be breaking even.

No, not everyone could be breaking even, because of comission. Of course they could all be breaking even before commission but common sense dictates that there are plenty of winners and losers.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

No, the books restrict smart customers who constantly put on +EV bets. Whether they be arbs, or movers or whatever else. The vast majority of sports have little to no 'information' whatsoever i.e Soccer, Rugby, Snooker, Tennis etc. Are the customers winning at those not restricted? A bookie can't tell if you have information. If you are constantly backing horses early price that half in price they will assume you have information and restrict alright. There are any number of other reasons for restriction though

you obviously know your stuff and I have no desire to have a big argument about this but I worked in the industry for many years and:

• Backing winners won't - or shouldn't - get you cut unless you are really consistent
• Consistently backing at early prices on horses that shorten up probably will, but only because they think you are connected somehow
• If there's ANY pattern WRT connections etc then it most definitely will (although you will stay open, as you are a mark)
• Arbers are usually cut or closed without hesitation - no need to keep them open. "not punters"
• The vast majority of cuts are in racing, so other sports are irrelevant. Racing is 10x more bent than any other sport, all the real risks are in racing
• There are a small number of sports punters who probably win consistently. Tennis and golf maybe, not much on soccer at all. Bookies LOVE soccer bettors, whoever they are.
• In general, bookies are not worried about geniuses who can read the form better than they can. There are probably some out there, but they are insignificant, and not something that keep them awake at night. And anyway, they will soon know who they are and use them as a mark as well. They are almost providing a service.

Hulk Hands

I'd completely agree with most of that. I know plenty of sports only bettors though who get restricted. You can get movers in sports also (more so low grade). The margins in soccer are smaller, hence it can be easier to beat at times. Live betting is also very important in sports. Anyways, this is a racing forum, so as far as racing goes, I dont think information matters unless you only back a certain stables runners etc. Anyone I know restricted for racing has been robbing early prices rather than info.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'd completely agree with most of that. I know plenty of sports only bettors though who get restricted. You can get movers in sports also (more so low grade). The margins in soccer are smaller, hence it can be easier to beat at times. Live betting is also very important in sports. Anyways, this is a racing forum, so as far as racing goes, I dont think information matters unless you only back a certain stables runners etc. Anyone I know restricted for racing has been robbing early prices rather than info.

of course I can only speak for the place I worked in, so it's going to be different everywhere.

in general if someone's piling into a horse at 16/1 at 10 in the morning then the risk team are thinking "what does he know?", if someone is doing the same on a football match they are just taking the money. unless the football match is in the ukranian 4th division of course....

flutered

Motivator wrote: »

Whatever about Hugh Taylor, Alan Potts is a multi-millionaire entrepreneur. JP the same. Neither made their fortune from punting - although JP made plenty of cash from laying big bets back in the day.

My brother has plenty money & is retired. I reckon he's losing €10,000 - €15,000 a year. Plenty people with mortgages & young families losing plenty more.[/QUOTE)

jp knew a little more about the ones that he layed than some of the punters that backed them, back in the day they were guys that were thrown money at bookies like confetti at a wedding, i started at the game when i was 12, i finishe up when i was 45, i was lucky in that i raised my family from it, then i got tired of it, i also got ill, in the last twenty years i have not been on a course twice, when i was at it i was never a bookies shop, i also kept my ears open and my mouth shut, but i developed a sense for the odd horse that i was sure would win, not often, one good story, i got married on a wedensday, the o/h wanted to go up the west, i wanted to go to clonmel, i got my way, i was putting on a few quid for a small time trainer, which i did, plus a few for myself, as i could get on without the battle, which i think was 10 %, the fcuker decieded he did not want to win after jumping the last and finished second, not a great start to married life.

flutered

put did not thee famous john the bank who alwasy claimed that saturday was a way to print money, as there was so much sport on that punters could not study it properly go broke, it wa himself that could not study it, he forgot that punters stuck to one or two meetings.

flutered

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If nobody can consistently win then how come accounts are being restricted and closed left right and centre? These accounts aren't being stopped if the punter is losing money or consistently putting on - ev selections. The betfair model alone should tell you how many people are winning. If it's punter vs punter, and the book is only taking 5%commission, then logic states that some of them must be winning. Granted the majority are losing and a few of the bigger hitters are taking a lot of the profit, but it still means some are winning and it's by no means impossible or even rare.

Maybe some others here are shy about claiming their winners. At the risk of inflating heads, the likes of Colonel is certainly ahead if he's as nitpicky as he suggests on here. Certainly his powers and vc weren't closed for no reason. There's a few others I suspect aswell on here. It's near impossible to make a living from gambling unless you're something special at sports/probability and have some sort of Patrick vietch setup in order to get bets on. However, it is possible to win a small amount consistently if you're picky on price, understand the industry and have a reasonable understanding of probability and sports

the colonel you speak about is hardly the same guy that always bet on the photo and was never wrong back in the day, if he is he is fairly old.

Hulk Hands

flutered wrote: »

the colonel you speak about is hardly the same guy that always bet on the photo and was never wrong back in the day, if he is he is fairly old.

Haha, what a great name for a punter

Nah, poster on here. Talks about Alcohol and middle aged women mostly

Pinesky

The punting successes of Vincent o Brien and Clive Brittain ( as head lad) to noel murless would be well known.
They had more knowledge than the layers. They only bet on their own horses. They quit when they achieved the goal of owning their own yards debt free.

del roy

well some really nice stories on people who are making a few bob if not a living from the bookmakers however again I think arbing is a different ball game to the punter who risks losing all his money on the race.

well two bets today

Museiur jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 lost and midnight court 2pts win 5/2 1st

bank 104.2 pts
starting bank 100 pts
profit 4.2pts

del roy

7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w

del roy

bank 100.2 pts
starting bank 100 pts
profit 0.2pts


Huntington 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts

Patrickpower are going 3/1 on this horse atm.

kiers47

On Module myself they opened up 4/1 so took some of that.

I am on the worst run ive been on for about 10 years though so it doesnt bode well for your mate.

Colonel Sanders

kiers47 wrote: »

I am on the worst run ive been on for about 10 years though

Christ I thought I was the only one

Everything I punt seems to shorten significantly pre race and/or trade odds on in play & get stuffed!

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Christ I thought I was the only one

Everything I punt seems to shorten significantly pre race and/or trade odds on in play & get stuffed!

I had a decent bet on Sire De Grugy the weekend but other than that i havent backed a winner in about my last 20-25 bets (Actually i had a small bet(€10) on hinterland the same day more or less just to watch the race on the laptop) . A horrendous strike rate to say the least.

Might just start following Urban blind although the AW wouldnt be my cup of tea dont know how he finds winners there.

del roy

kiers

ryans style is to win over the christmas holidays, so I heard.
if you have any money left that is.

keep the faith mate your luck will change like all good runs your bad one will end.