Can the book be beaten ...long term?

Cart · 11-12-2013 09:37PM

Deleted User wrote: »

you obviously know your stuff and I have no desire to have a big argument about this but I worked in the industry for many years and:
Backing winners won't - or shouldn't - get you cut unless you are really consistent

Consistently backing at early prices on horses that shorten up probably will, but only because they think you are connected somehow

If there's ANY pattern WRT connections etc then it most definitely will (although you will stay open, as you are a mark)

Arbers are usually cut or closed without hesitation - no need to keep them open. "not punters"

The vast majority of cuts are in racing, so other sports are irrelevant. Racing is 10x more bent than any other sport, all the real risks are in racing

There are a small number of sports punters who probably win consistently. Tennis and golf maybe, not much on soccer at all. Bookies LOVE soccer bettors, whoever they are.

In general, bookies are not worried about geniuses who can read the form better than they can. There are probably some out there, but they are insignificant, and not something that keep them awake at night. And anyway, they will soon know who they are and use them as a mark as well. They are almost providing a service.

Hey lads what are Arbers?

UrbanSea · 11-12-2013 09:41PM

Cart wrote: »

Hey lads what are Arbers?

To put it very simply backing an event where there are discrepancies between bookies' prices so you win no matter what the outcome. The % profit would usually be between 1-5% but rarely you can get arbs where you could be gauranteed upward on that. Obviously you will need to have big stakes to make it worthwhile.

There are others here who can explain it much better and indepth but that's the basics

Cart · 11-12-2013 09:44PM

UrbanSea wrote: »

To put it very simply backing an event where there are discrepancies between bookies' prices so you win no matter what the outcome. The % profit would usually be between 1-5% but rarely you can get arbs where you could be gauranteed upward on that. Obviously you will need to have big stakes to make it worthwhile.

There are others here who can explain it much better and indepth but that's the basics

Thanks lad

del roy · 11-12-2013 09:49PM

cart

arbers are people who back with a bookmaker at say €100 @ 8/1 and then lay the same horse on betfair @ 7/1

therefor if the horse wins they will win €100 if it loses they will break even

however its hard work as the bookmakers cop on within a few weeks what you are up to and close your account so its mostly bookmaker shops you have to do your business in.

Onthe3rdDay · 11-12-2013 10:08PM

One person that I've been friends with for a long time has been making a living from betting for nearly a decade, However he tells almost no one what he really does and he's not greedy. He's happy to have about 25,000 profit a year after all is said and done. But he puts in the hours and while a lot of what he does is online he also goes on long trips just to put money down at bricks and mortar bookies.

He had no wife or kids and has no intention of going down that route (he had a lucky escape.) His opinion is that he couldn't do what he does if he had to look after a family.

The interesting thing is that he keeps well away from Racing. He tried that at the start with no success. It's only when he started to concentrate on other sports that success came his way.

UrbanFret · 11-12-2013 10:10PM

There's another significant variable here and that's downright bad luck. Horses falling when winning easily, getting boxed in, and then there's poor jockeyship which i have to say has got all too common. Had some solid info last week on 2 of david evans horses( 2 singles and a double) First wins at 5/2(backed at 7/2) second backed at 15/2 Hacking behind the leaders when clipped heels and came down. Now that's the sort of thing that the layers have in their favour. In order to make a consistent profit you have to be so disciplined it's unreal. There was a time I could devote the time to it but as I got older I just can't seem to. The two methods I have relied on over the years are stables in form and horses having their first run in handicaps.

SRFC · 11-12-2013 10:13PM

Onthe3rdDay wrote: »

One person that I've been friends with for a long time has been making a living from betting for nearly a decade, However he tells almost no one what he really does and he's not greedy. He's happy to have about 25,000 profit a year after all is said and done. But he puts in the hours and while a lot of what he does is online he also goes on long trips just to put money down at bricks and mortar bookies.

He had no wife or kids and has no intention of going down that route (he had a lucky escape.) His opinion is that he couldn't do what he does if he had to look after a family.

The interesting thing is that he keeps well away from Racing. He tried that at the start with no success. It's only when he started to concentrate on other sports that success came his way.

25K is not really a decent salary is it though,I would rather work for a bit more and a guaranteed weekly wage than take a gamble for that kind of money a year to live on (if thats what hes doing)

Onthe3rdDay · 11-12-2013 10:30PM

SRFC wrote: »

25K is not really a decent salary is it though,I would rather work for a bit more and a guaranteed weekly wage than take a gamble for that kind of money a year to live on (if thats what hes doing)

Well if you've no dependents it's fine and probably better than what half the country earns. Plus he owns his own house which is a major factor. He also has fail safes as he calls them. He's built up a emergancy fund of cash in case he hits a bad streak, plus he always has at least 18 months cash in reserve to pay himself (built up during the years), So he's probably more secure than most on a wage.

However, he says himself that he's a bit odd, it's not the lifestyle he's recommend for others, even if he's very happy. He's already building up a retirement fund by buying stocks and shares.

The funny thing is that he's not really a gambler. It's more like a puzzle that has to be solved. He only really gets passionate about International Football, and he doesn't bet on that at all.

redzerdrog · 11-12-2013 10:42PM

I do believe that the book can be beaten long term if disciplined enough. I have no doubt I am an overall loser long term on the horses its the 5er and 10er bets that do the damage, id be pretty sure that if I stuck to less frequent 'big bets' which I put the research into i would be profitable but to be honest I enjoy the racing as a hobby and enjoy having small speculative bets.

I also regularly bet on Golf and whilst I felt it was profitable I knew I was a bit too indisciplined particular when betting in running or chasing losses. So I set up a log in the gambling section and from day 1 I became more focused and disciplined and I am currently running at over 1000pts profit for the year.

In short I do believe it can be done.

flutered · 11-12-2013 11:37PM

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Christ I thought I was the only one

Everything I punt seems to shorten significantly pre race and/or trade odds on in play & get stuffed!

when that would happen to me back in the day, i would stop for a min of two weeks, , not evel look a the paper, then come back fresh, more importantly i would have a few extra quid to play with.

flutered · 11-12-2013 11:45PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Haha, what a great name for a punter

Nah, poster on here. Talks about Alcohol and middle aged women mostly

nothing wrong with that, often watching wimmin walking down the street, one can see a mother with her daughter pushing a pram, in a lot of cases the wan without the pram is more bedable by far.

mdwexford · 12-12-2013 01:39AM

Onthe3rdDay wrote: »

One person that I've been friends with for a long time has been making a living from betting for nearly a decade, However he tells almost no one what he really does and he's not greedy. He's happy to have about 25,000 profit a year after all is said and done. But he puts in the hours and while a lot of what he does is online he also goes on long trips just to put money down at bricks and mortar bookies.

He had no wife or kids and has no intention of going down that route (he had a lucky escape.) His opinion is that he couldn't do what he does if he had to look after a family.

The interesting thing is that he keeps well away from Racing. He tried that at the start with no success. It's only when he started to concentrate on other sports that success came his way.

Sounds a grim existence imo.

Onthe3rdDay · 12-12-2013 11:04AM

mdwexford wrote: »

Sounds a grim existence imo.

Each to his own. However, he's the only person I know that can drop everything to go on holidays whenever he wants.

BQQ · 12-12-2013 11:08AM

Onthe3rdDay wrote: »

Each to his own. However, he's the only person I know that can drop everything to go on holidays whenever he wants.

Who would he go with though?

Onthe3rdDay · 12-12-2013 12:21PM

BQQ wrote: »

Who would he go with though?

In the past he's gone on his own or with a girlfriend. Depends on his romantic status and if the person he's going out with has free time. He doesn't want the whole marriage and kids thing. That's separate from making a living off betting, but his point is that he couldn't continue what he does if he had a wife or kids.

His situation is fairly low risk, but there's still a risk. He can handle it if he has a lean year and he's on his own. However, he's the only one of my friends in Ireland that always has spare cash. Most of the others earn more (and a lot more in some cases) than him but have families and don't have two cents to rub together.

I'm using him as an example because you can beat the book but you have to be very focused and disciplined. He was in a rough relationship and that really changed the way he viewed life. He's not really a kid person anyway, but his point would be that the two days he really needs to work at this (Saturday and Sunday) are the two days when kids and a Wife would need and expect attention.

premierstone · 12-12-2013 12:36PM

SRFC wrote: »

25K is not really a decent salary is it though,I would rather work for a bit more and a guaranteed weekly wage than take a gamble for that kind of money a year to live on (if thats what hes doing)

25K is an excellent wage, remember its tax free and he is also entitled to the dole. Its €480 a week plus benefits so probably about €700 a week into the hand, sounds like a decent living to me!

flutered · 12-12-2013 12:43PM

BQQ wrote: »

Who would he go with though?

that does not matter, many go on singles hollidays, either for peace and quite, or on the pull.

Onthe3rdDay · 12-12-2013 12:55PM

premierstone wrote: »

25K is an excellent wage, remember its tax free and he is also entitled to the dole. Its €480 a week plus benefits so probably about €700 a week into the hand, sounds like a decent living to me!

He doesn't claim the dole. Plus at this stage I'd presume he'd have too much in savings. Anyway he's the type that he wouldn't want anyone looking over his books.

premierstone · 12-12-2013 01:07PM

Onthe3rdDay wrote: »

He doesn't claim the dole. Plus at this stage I'd presume he'd have too much in savings. Anyway he's the type that he wouldn't want anyone looking over his books.

All proceeds from Gambling are tax free and nobody needs to know anything about them, tbh while it is very noble of him, he is a fool not to be drawing the dole, as entitled to it as any of the degenerates who piss theres away every week.

Onthe3rdDay · 12-12-2013 01:30PM

premierstone wrote: »

All proceeds from Gambling are tax free and nobody needs to know anything about them, tbh while it is very noble of him, he is a fool not to be drawing the dole, as entitled to it as any of the degenerates who piss theres away every week.

I far as I'm aware, he would be means tested as he's no stamps built up. So they would want to look at bank statements and such like. However, it's not even an issue because he's just not the type to even consider claiming the dole. Before He started this venture, he worked like a demon for 2 years and built up enough to start out. He quit his job once he had reached a certain amount (I don't know what that amount was) Since then he's had no real dealing with the employment market. However, he does have an accountant. Over the years he has invested in Shares and stocks so I presume he has to submit some sort of return to the revenue.

However, any investment outside of gambling is for his retirement/rainy day fund. He has said that having a certain amount of money in the bank gives him security and helps to avoid that temptation to go for bigger odds.

He lives a fairly frugal lifestyle (his choice) the only real extravagance is that he has several broadband services on the go.

12-12-2013 01:40PM

Onthe3rdDay wrote: »

I far as I'm aware, he would be means tested as he's no stamps built up. So they would want to look at bank statements and such like. However, it's not even an issue because he's just not the type to even consider claiming the dole. Before He started this venture, he worked like a demon for 2 years and built up enough to start out. He quit his job once he had reached a certain amount (I don't know what that amount was) Since then he's had no real dealing with the employment market. However, he does have an accountant. Over the years he has invested in Shares and stocks so I presume he has to submit some sort of return to the revenue.

However, any investment outside of gambling is for his retirement/rainy day fund. He has said that having a certain amount of money in the bank gives him security and helps to avoid that temptation to go for bigger odds.

He lives a fairly frugal lifestyle (his choice) the only real extravagance is that he has several broadband services on the go.

I'm curious about what he bets on - can you tell us more?

Is he building his own book and then spotting value, or does he have some other system. I know 25K a year isn't a huge amount but I think making money consistently on sports would be tough enough

Onthe3rdDay · 12-12-2013 02:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm curious about what he bets on - can you tell us more?

Is he building his own book and then spotting value, or does he have some other system. I know 25K a year isn't a huge amount but I think making money consistently on sports would be tough enough

I wish I could be more help here, but he doesn’t generally talk about it. I do know he bets on Football, Tennis and Golf. We did have a discussion about The GAA one day and he would bet on the championships all the time, except they introduced the back door. He had a system which worked well but once the backdoor came in he had to leave it go.

However, the one thing he doesn’t bet on is racing. He has claimed that you need inside knowledge and even then he couldn’t be certain he could make it work. This was especially true for Irish Racing which to him made little sense at times. He does have a lot of respect for those that can do it, there would be one or two he knows that seem to be able to pull it off but the stress levels are high.

He also takes it one year at a time. This was advice given to him by someone who had been at this for decades. A yearly review of how you feel and how things have gone. Even the best of gamblers can burn out eventually. The trick is to know when you should get out and do something different.

del roy · 12-12-2013 05:53PM

bank 96.2 pts
starting bank 100 pts
profit -3.8pts

Barbaric Gentleman · 12-12-2013 05:57PM

Some interesting comments on here!! It's well established that there are lots of people out there making a lot of money on betting. Read up on those betting syndicates in Hong Kong and Australia that make 10's of millions betting on horse racing using computer systems. Likewise, look up Tony Bloom and his success betting on football, literally 100's of millions of profit. So not only are people doing it, some people are making fortunes doing it. It all comes down to how much work you want to put into it, I guess.

Barbaric Gentleman · 12-12-2013 06:12PM

Somebody else mentioned Kevin Blake's book, It Can Be Done. It's well worth a read for a lot of commenters on here, as it covers a lot of what separates winners and losers on the mental side of things. Lots in there about racing too and various edges that can be sought.

dave3004 · 13-12-2013 12:59PM

If a bookie is willing to lay your bets, then you most likely aren't winning.

If your account has no limits on it, then you are not winning.

del roy · 13-12-2013 02:15PM

3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1

del roy · 14-12-2013 05:32PM

bank 92.2 pts
starting bank 100 pts
profit -7.8pts

8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1

mailburner · 14-12-2013 08:16PM

Motivator wrote: »

Having worked in the industry for a long number of years I can honestly say I have never seen a serious punter in profit long term. My brother has also worked in the industry but is now a full time Betfair layer/punter.

worked for pp a long time ago and can vouch for all that
I didn't see too many making it pay longterm bar the odd one
who would have a couple of bets each week and know what
they were at and were always disciplined

What surprises me is that if your brother is that good a judge and
can't make a profit laying for example then surely he mustn't be
very disciplined
I think discipline is key when backing but so much more
important when laying
You can tell at times when horses drift from certain stables then
the vast majority of times they won't win having backed many a
non trier this year (evans to name one)
I felt that french horse in the last at chelt that drifted out to 7/2
was not going to be winning that race
Sometimes you just feel strongly enough about it to go with it as
we all know

I'm holding my own these days which I'm happy enough with
but that's mainly because i'm avoiding the horses as I don't
have time to put in the hours required but I am only a small punter
I had enough bad years before I copped myself on though

I think if people stick solely to sports they have a decent
knowledge of then they should at least make a small profit
I do think the vast majority of those making money on horses
other than arbers are simply people in the know with a few
exceptions like some on here who know their stuff

If I was single and had about 20k to spare I'd love to have
a right go at laying having already dabbled with it but just
for minimum stakes
I found the whole thing very time consuming to a point
where I didn't want to do anything else though so had to stop
Was spending hours after work each night studying and I
couldnt think about anything else when I woke up in the morning.
I was averaging about 200 a month profit for small stakes but
for the time I was putting it in it was pointless and I never had
a bank much bigger than 1k

good thread

facebook50 · 14-12-2013 11:44PM

Anyone who says they can beat the bookmakers but doesnt mention getting value prices is lying you must get value or you lose ..watching replays for hours on end is usually required to spot what others missed and track your prices against sp to see if you are actually getting value..

Can the book be beaten ...long term?

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