Gameweek 16 Transfers.

That is a mighty big if spacecowboy..

Danger781 wrote: »

That is a mighty big if spacecowboy..

I've been hurt once this season... but 3 other times its worked out great! Even got one my highest scores of the year after taking the hits and that was after deducting the points. Have to say i am a complete convert as last season and at the very start of this one i was hard pushed to even take a 4 point hit but having listened to others around these parts for better or worse i've gone all out lately! Had made serious ground over the last few weeks not scoring under 60 in about 5/6 weeks but not captaining Suarez against Norwich has really set me back!

I've had a strategy that this year that I think I will adopt in future seasons. Wildcard in gameweek 1 to maximise value and then do my hits in the first five or six weeks to maximise value and get the team ready for the season.

The one thing I'd say about hits is that patience is key. I've tried my best not to take hits in recent weeks and it has worked well.

Zab, Ozil, Oscar, Lukaku - those are four of the players I would have dropped if I'd gone for a hit yet all have managed to work out in the long run.

This week I have my transfer done already. The only player I'd go for a hit to transfer out would be Brady. However, I was at a loss as to whether I'd play him or Morrisson anyway so I guess that makes my mind up.

Getting rid of him doesn't fit my long term strategy until 2 GWs away anyway. I have 2.4 mil banked. This weekend Terry most likely, or Mert, will go for someone like Chester or Olsson giving me a back four of three cheapies and Coleman plus one of Terry/Mert.

That spare cash will then give me the money to bring in a fourth premium mid like Coutinho/Silva/Oscar/Yaya/Walcott etc.

SpaceCowb0y wrote: »

I never take into consideration what my outgoing players score though?? If you plan on transferring them out then there score is irrelevant to you, if that was the case you would never make a transfer from fear your outgoing players will score better! Of course there is a chance you old striker might score higher then your new one but if you had planned on doing the transfers sooner or later, maybe spread over two weeks, and the two new transfers you are looking to bring in both have favourable fixtures the one week then its a calculated risk taking the hit and also making that boring defensive swap to free up cash etc at the same time...

Taking risks is the name of the game at the end of the day?

Remind me not to give you any money to invest on my behalf.

Lemlin wrote: »

The one thing I'd say about hits is that patience is key. I've tried my best not to take hits in recent weeks and it has worked well.

Zab, Ozil, Oscar, Lukaku - those are four of the players I would have dropped if I'd gone for a hit yet all have managed to work out in the long run.

You could throw Coleman into that as well for me, I too stood by Zab, Ozil, Oscar & Lukaku and it paid off.
Backing the two EVE lads when they were up against seemingly difficult opposition especially.

I get your point about "patience being key" with transfers but I think you're overplaying it slightly, for every time it could work out, there could easily be a Michu, Soldado etc etc on the opposite side of things.

I think patience around transfers is secondary to it all tbh, the primary thing being: trusting you own judgement on certain players.
The transfer decisions fall off from that if you get me.

SpaceCowb0y wrote: »

I never take into consideration what my outgoing players score though?? If you plan on transferring them out then there score is irrelevant to you, if that was the case you would never make a transfer from fear your outgoing players will score better! Of course there is a chance you old striker might score higher then your new one but if you had planned on doing the transfers sooner or later, maybe spread over two weeks, and the two new transfers you are looking to bring in both have favourable fixtures the one week then its a calculated risk taking the hit and also making that boring defensive swap to free up cash etc at the same time...

Taking risks is the name of the game at the end of the day?

It's a balance that is needed imo.
I'm happy to take a hit and not expect it to pay off in the first GW, but I'd hope to see a return after 2,3,4 weeks if I see the incoming player as a long term option.
And all going well I would plan/try to take my hits periodically...setting my team up for the next 3-4 GW's as best as possible.

I think that is the point you are making but it kind of comes across as if you are taking 8 point hits every week with little consideration medium or long term considerations.
Which I don't think is the case with you at all, but you do get a little sense of that from the post...
The bolded comment isn't doing yourself any justice imo, you are taking into account what you think the outgoing player will score but you believe the incoming one that causes a hit will repay you by outscoring that player, it might be more apt to say that you don't judge it on a short term/1 week return basis.

Maybe I've got that all wrong, have you made 52 transfers?

PARlance wrote: »

You could throw Coleman into that as well for me, I too stood by Zab, Ozil, Oscar & Lukaku and it paid off.
Backing the two EVE lads when they were up against seemingly difficult opposition especially.

I get your point about "patience being key" with transfers but I think you're overplaying it slightly, for every time it could work out, there could easily be a Michu, Soldado etc etc on the opposite side of things.

I think patience around transfers is secondary to it all tbh, the primary thing being: trusting you own judgement on certain players.
The transfer decisions fall off from that if you get me.

My view is that if I bring in a player because he has, for example, 3 good fixtures in a row, I will give him the 3 fixtures. I see too many people bring in a player and because he gets 2 points in the next game, he is straight back out.

Lemlin wrote: »

I've had a strategy that this year that I think I will adopt in future seasons. Wildcard in gameweek 1 to maximise value and then do my hits in the first five or six weeks to maximise value and get the team ready for the season.

You mean GW 2 . I still think GW 2 WC is too early though. It worked great for you this year but could be risky with so little information (basically 1 GW played) about the performing players and teams. You could adopt the same strategy by playing your WC during the first international break (GW 4 IIRC) and taking some hits before to maximise your team value.

Lemlin wrote: »

The one thing I'd say about hits is that patience is key. I've tried my best not to take hits in recent weeks and it has worked well.

Zab, Ozil, Oscar, Lukaku - those are four of the players I would have dropped if I'd gone for a hit yet all have managed to work out in the long run.

Yes. Zab is one of my regret. Especially that I transferred him out at a stupid timing focussing too much on his price falling. The real question with him is: is it worth £6m to be on the bench every second GW ? More positively the question could be asked that way: is there better value for 1 CS every second game ?

Lemlin wrote: »

This week I have my transfer done already. The only player I'd go for a hit to transfer out would be Brady. However, I was at a loss as to whether I'd play him or Morrisson anyway so I guess that makes my mind up.

Getting rid of him doesn't fit my long term strategy until 2 GWs away anyway. I have 2.4 mil banked. This weekend Terry most likely, or Mert, will go for someone like Chester or Olsson giving me a back four of three cheapies and Coleman plus one of Terry/Mert.

That spare cash will then give me the money to bring in a fourth premium mid like Coutinho/Silva/Oscar/Yaya/Walcott etc.

Yeah, it doesn't make much sense to take a 4 pts hit for "nothing" since your team is well set up.

With Silva due back soon, you may be able to field one of the strongest team this year with Silva/Ramsey/Ozil/Hazard (Morrison) Suarez/Aguero/Lukaku and 2 "big" defenders. Most people could only keep 1 "big" defender and/or go for 2 cheap keepers for a similar team (which is my case).

Im getting rid of Dawson this week for a cheap defender. Who out of these 4 would you consider:

B. Turner, Williamson, M. Turner, Chester

The rest of my defense is Terry Kos Gabbidon and Coleman.

Hull have the one of the highest home clean sheet rates: 4/7.

Other home clean sheets are:
Newcastle 3/7
Norwich 2/7
Cardiff 2/7
West Ham 3/7

I actually hadn't spotted that West Ham have kept 7 clean sheets in total so far this season

redmond is bang on form. anyone taking a punt ?
thinking of janjuzwhatshisname out and redmond in

I'm thinking on getting Coutinio in after that stat.

Want to get rid of Giroud for a more consistent scorer. Obv can't afford Aguero.

Any suggestions?

Considering -4 hit somewhere to get Rooney in. United are in shocking form though!

thunderdog wrote: »

Im getting rid of Dawson this week for a cheap defender. Who out of these 4 would you consider:

B. Turner, Williamson, M. Turner, Chester

The rest of my defense is Terry Kos Gabbidon and Coleman.

Hull have the one of the highest home clean sheet rates: 4/7.

Other home clean sheets are:
Newcastle 3/7
Norwich 2/7
Cardiff 2/7
West Ham 3/7

I actually hadn't spotted that West Ham have kept 7 clean sheets in total so far this season

I presume you're gonna play Terry, Kos and Coleman most weeks. So your 4th and 5th choice defenders must be cheap and have a favourable fixtures when your big names don't.

Terry ....: Ars (A) gw17 ; Liv (H) gw19 ; Sou (A) gw20
Kos .....: MCi (A) gw16 ; Che (H) gw17 ; New (A) gw19
Coleman: -

while

Gabbidon: Che (A) gw16 ; New (H) gw17 ; AV (A) gw18 ; MCi (A) gw19 ; Nor (H) gw20 ; Tot (A) gw21

So you'd need one that has favourable fixtures for gw16, 17 and 19.

Let's see what Hull, Newcastle, Norwich, Cardiff and West Ham have to offer:

Hull ........: gw16: Sto (H) ; gw17 WBA (A) ; gw19 Ful (H)
Newcastle: gw16 Sou (H) ; gw17 CP (A) ; gw19 Ars (H)
Norwich ..: gw16 Swa (H) ; gw17 Sun (A) ; gw19 MU (H)
Cardiff ....: gw16 WBA (H) ; gw17 Liv (A) ; gw19 Sun (H)
West Ham: gw16 Sun (H) ; gw17 MU (A) ; gw19 WBA (H)

I'd say, in the order of importance you need one that has a good gw16 fixture, then a good gw19 (you can play Kos and/or Terry) and finally a good gw17.(you can play Kos).

Considering these criterias I'd rank the 5 teams like that:
1. WH
1. Hull
3. Cardiff
4. Newcastle
5. Norwich

iroced wrote: »

You mean GW 2 . I still think GW 2 WC is too early though. It worked great for you this year but could be risky with so little information (basically 1 GW played) about the performing players and teams. You could adopt the same strategy by playing your WC during the first international break (GW 4 IIRC) and taking some hits before to maximise your team value.


Yes. Zab is one of my regret. Especially that I transferred him out at a stupid timing focussing too much on his price falling. The real question with him is: is it worth £6m to be on the bench every second GW ? More positively the question could be asked that way: is there better value for 1 CS every second game ?

Yeah, it doesn't make much sense to take a 4 pts hit for "nothing" since your team is well set up.

With Silva due back soon, you may be able to field one of the strongest team this year with Silva/Ramsey/Ozil/Hazard (Morrison) Suarez/Aguero/Lukaku and 2 "big" defenders. Most people could only keep 1 "big" defender and/or go for 2 cheap keepers for a similar team (which is my case).

I've now finally transferred out Zab but holding onto him until I had the chance to, rather than taking a 4 point hit, has worked out well. I transferred him out for Ben Turner last weekend. Turner and Joel Ward from Palace rotate perfectly.

I can see Terry being next on my chopping list. Yes, he offers goals but is a goal every month or so really worth his price tag? For me, I always look for my defenders to keep clean sheets first and Terry isn't doing that. I could transfer out Mert but I'll lose a huge amount on his value and, although they have tough fixtures, Arsenal are keeping clean sheets.

So I reckon my potential line up in two gameweeks will be:

Mignolet Harper
Coleman Mertesacker B. Turner Ward Chester/Olsson
Hazard Ozil Ramsey Morrisson Another (one of Coutinho/nasri/Silva/Yaya/Oscar)
Lukaku Suarez Aguero

As you say, that's a very strong lineup IMO.

I've already done my one FT, but looking at sorting out one of my defenders this week.

Probably going to bring in Williamson of Newcastle for only 4.4, seems nailed on.

Who do I get rid of?
Dawson, Clyne, Vlaar