Lotto quick picks

My name is URL · 04-12-2013 08:38PM #1

I very seldom do the Lotto. Seriously, the last time I bothered was about 7 years ago around the time the Euromillions was at an insane amount.

Done a quick pick tonight for some reason and feel a bit cheated

top line - 07, 12, 13, 14, 23, 43

bottom line - 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 39

=/

wtf.. they're bad numbers so they are!

Are quick picks rigged? What are the odds of getting sequential numbers like that? If it was poker I'd be rich.. surely I deserve a prize just for getting such shitty numbers?

generic2012 · 04-12-2013 08:39PM

If you knew the numbers you wanted, why didn't you pick them?

Sir Osis of Liver. · 04-12-2013 08:39PM

Fools tax.

04-12-2013 08:39PM

They seem to skew towards lower numbers a lot. Higher numbers give a better chance of non-shared winnings since people tend to select lower numbers (31 and under) more.

My name is URL · 04-12-2013 08:41PM

generic2012 wrote: »

If you knew the numbers you wanted, why didn't you pick them?

Ain't nobody got time for that

Vitaliorange · 04-12-2013 08:46PM

My name is URL wrote: »

I very seldom do the Lotto. Seriously, the last time I bothered was about 7 years ago around the time the Euromillions was at an insane amount.

Done a quick pick tonight for some reason and feel a bit cheated

top line - 07, 12, 13, 14, 23, 43

bottom line - 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 39

=/

wtf.. they're bad numbers so they are!

Are quick picks rigged? What are the odds of getting sequential numbers like that? If it was poker I'd be rich.. surely I deserve a prize just for getting such shitty numbers?

Every combination is equally likely.

1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely as any other combination.

My name is URL · 04-12-2013 08:49PM

Vitaliorange wrote: »

Every combination is equally likely.

1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely as any other combination.

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

kneemos · 04-12-2013 08:54PM

My name is URL wrote: »

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

It brings home the ridiculous odds of winning the thing.

Vitaliorange · 04-12-2013 08:57PM

My name is URL wrote: »

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

But you are only choosing one combination.

You aren't choosing every nonsequential combination.

dmc17 · 04-12-2013 08:58PM

My name is URL wrote: »

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

1,2,3,4,5,6 have as much chance of coming out as 1,7,9,22,34,39

dmc17 · 04-12-2013 08:59PM

My name is URL wrote: »

I very seldom do the Lotto. Seriously, the last time I bothered was about 7 years ago around the time the Euromillions was at an insane amount.

Done a quick pick tonight for some reason and feel a bit cheated

top line - 07, 12, 13, 14, 23, 43

bottom line - 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 39

=/

wtf.. they're bad numbers so they are!

Are quick picks rigged? What are the odds of getting sequential numbers like that? If it was poker I'd be rich.. surely I deserve a prize just for getting such shitty numbers?

Bring them back and state that you were not completely satisfied and wish to have a repair or suitable replacement

Aka Ishur · 04-12-2013 08:59PM

My name is URL wrote: »

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

Every ball has an equal chance of being picked, so a sequence has statistically exactly the same chance of being picked as your quick pick line.

Seachmall · 04-12-2013 09:01PM

My name is URL wrote: »

Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

You are right. There are more non-sequential combinations than there are sequential ones.

What Vitaliorange is saying is that any specific combination, sequential or not, is as likely as any other specific combination.

keithsfleet · 04-12-2013 09:02PM

I'm running down to the shop to pick those numbers.

We'll see who's laughing when I take a share of you're winnings.

danniemcq · 04-12-2013 09:03PM

Sir Osis of Liver. wrote: »

Fools tax.

I hate when people call it that,

If people go out and spend a couple quid and are in with any chance of winning no matter how small its not a tax. People aren't forced to play it every week they choose to. And if anyone thinks they are guaranteed a win or have a system then they are fools. They however are a tiny minority so you cannot apply it to everyone with the same paintbrush.

Also OP those numbers have the exact same chance of winning as all others

And on a side not NEVER buy 1,2,3,4,5,6. They are the most chosen combination of numbers so if you do win you will share with loads of people

dmc17 · 04-12-2013 09:05PM

keithsfleet wrote: »

I'm running down to the shop to pick those numbers.

We'll see who's laughing when I take a share of you're winnings.

We'll see who's laughing when you get there and realise it's closed :pac:

Seachmall · 04-12-2013 09:07PM

danniemcq wrote: »

I hate when people call it that,

If people go out and spend a couple quid and are in with any chance of winning no matter how small its not a tax. People aren't forced to play it every week they choose to. And if anyone thinks they are guaranteed a win or have a system then they are fools. They however are a tiny minority so you cannot apply it to everyone with the same paintbrush.

Also OP those numbers have the exact same chance of winning as all others

And on a side not NEVER buy 1,2,3,4,5,6. They are the most chosen combination of numbers so if you do win you will share with loads of people

It's called a Fools Tax because regardless if you win or not it's a -EV purchase and therefore it is always a mathematically incorrect decision to buy a lotto ticket.

Only a fool would do so.

Yes, I said "regardless if you win or not".

wretcheddomain · 04-12-2013 09:08PM

Seachmall wrote: »

Only a fool would do so.

Say that to the winners...

Seachmall · 04-12-2013 09:10PM

wretcheddomain wrote: »

Say that to the winners...

Win or lose the maths don't change.

It's always foolish to buy a lotto ticket.

Christy42 · 04-12-2013 09:14PM

Seachmall wrote: »

It's called a Fools Tax because regardless if you win or not it's a -EV purchase and therefore it is always a mathematically incorrect decision to buy a lotto ticket.

Only a fool would do so.

Yes, I said "regardless if you win or not".

That completely depends on your utility. If I went down every week and did the lotto it would make very little difference to my standard of living if I lost everything I put on it (sure someone could save up for a ferrari but where is your ferrari then?). However on the rare chance I would win the lotto it would completely change my life.

All euros are equal but some are more equal than others. Some people are in a situation to lose no utility if they lose the lotto but are in a position to gain a lot if they win.

Seachmall · 04-12-2013 09:17PM

Christy42 wrote: »

That completely depends on your utility. If I went down every week and did the lotto it would make very little difference to my standard of living if I lost everything I put on it (sure someone could save up for a ferrari but where is your ferrari then?). However on the rare chance I would win the lotto it would completely change my life.

All euros are equal but some are more equal than others. Some people are in a situation to lose no utility if they lose the lotto but are in a position to gain a lot if they win.

Regardless if you're a millionaire or a hobo you're paying the same price for the same odds.

Of course in a more practical sense then yes you take your net worth into consideration, but I'm just commenting on the "Fools Tax" aspect.

keithsfleet · 04-12-2013 09:17PM

dmc17 wrote: »

We'll see who's laughing when you get there and realise it's closed :pac:

You win this round sir but we shall meet again

okedoke · 04-12-2013 09:17PM

Christy42 wrote: »

That completely depends on your utility. If I went down every week and did the lotto it would make very little difference to my standard of living if I lost everything I put on it (sure someone could save up for a ferrari but where is your ferrari then?). However on the rare chance I would win the lotto it would completely change my life.

All euros are equal but some are more equal than others. Some people are in a situation to lose no utility if they lose the lotto but are in a position to gain a lot if they win.

or gain a lot of utility from the excitement of waiting for the numbers to be drawn

Sunhill · 04-12-2013 09:22PM

kneemos wrote: »

It brings home the ridiculous odds of winning the thing.

Well said!
I checked the Irish Lotto website and it seems you have 45 numbers and you pick six. The math here for working out the chances is
(45x44x43x42x41x40) divided by (6x5x4x3x2x1)
which works out at 1 in 8,145,060 -- less than one chance in eight million.
Euromillions: choose 6 from 50 which is
(50x49x48x47x46x45) divided by (6x5x4x3x2x1)
which works out at 1 in 15,890,700 -- or almost 1 in sixteen million.
I think this is the right formula anyway. Been a while since I was in school.

zenno · 04-12-2013 09:25PM

I just play every week just for the chance of winning a few grand, a lucky lotto win would be nice. I've done the lotto now every week

for 16 years with the same numbers 15-16-17-20-28-42

and the most I have won is 57 euro a few times. Yes I've been unlucky, but one day they will come up hehe, hopefully.

If I stopped doing the lotto I'd just spend the money on crap anyway so no loss. If you're not in, you can't win.

dubscottie · 04-12-2013 09:30PM

Its fixed anyway.

Look at Saturdays numbers.

1, 19, 28, 31 all drawn twice over the lotto, +1 & +2 draws.

Look back at past Sat & Wed draws and in 99% of them 2 or 3 numbers get drawn more than once over the 3 draws.

The odds of that happening twice a week must be 1 - billions.

zenno · 04-12-2013 09:32PM

dubscottie wrote: »

Its fixed anyway.

Look at Saturdays numbers.

1, 19, 28, 31 all drawn twice over the lotto, +1 & +2 draws.

Look back at past Sat & Wed draws and in 99% of them 2 or 3 numbers get drawn more than once over the 3 draws.

The odds of that happening twice a week must be 1 - billions.

Hahahahahahaha, I'm always saying that after I didn't win. :pac:

Seachmall · 04-12-2013 09:32PM

dubscottie wrote: »

Its fixed anyway.

Look at Saturdays numbers.

1, 19, 28, 31 all drawn twice over the lotto, +1 & +2 draws.

Look back at past Sat & Wed draws and in 99% of them 2 or 3 numbers get drawn more than once over the 3 draws.

The odds of that happening twice a week must be 1 - billions.

One in a billion chances happen millions of times every day.

GarIT · 04-12-2013 09:33PM

Sunhill wrote: »

Well said!
I checked the Irish Lotto website and it seems you have 45 numbers and you pick six. The math here for working out the chances is
(45x44x43x42x41x40) divided by (6x5x4x3x2x1)
which works out at 1 in 8,145,060 -- less than one chance in eight million.
Euromillions: choose 6 from 50 which is
(50x49x48x47x46x45) divided by (6x5x4x3x2x1)
which works out at 1 in 15,890,700 -- or almost 1 in sixteen million.
I think this is the right formula anyway. Been a while since I was in school.

Why are you dividing by anything, the probability is just the first part I thought.

Fighting Irish · 04-12-2013 09:35PM

Sir Osis of Liver. wrote: »

Fools tax.

So is fast food

Fighting Irish · 04-12-2013 09:36PM

I've won the lotto 3 times using quick picks

Lotto quick picks

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