Lotto quick picks

My name is URL

I very seldom do the Lotto. Seriously, the last time I bothered was about 7 years ago around the time the Euromillions was at an insane amount.

Done a quick pick tonight for some reason and feel a bit cheated

top line - 07, 12, 13, 14, 23, 43

bottom line - 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 39

=/

wtf.. they're bad numbers so they are!

Are quick picks rigged? What are the odds of getting sequential numbers like that? If it was poker I'd be rich.. surely I deserve a prize just for getting such shitty numbers?

generic2012

If you knew the numbers you wanted, why didn't you pick them?

Sir Osis of Liver.

Fools tax.

They seem to skew towards lower numbers a lot. Higher numbers give a better chance of non-shared winnings since people tend to select lower numbers (31 and under) more.

My name is URL

generic2012 wrote: »

If you knew the numbers you wanted, why didn't you pick them?

Ain't nobody got time for that

Vitaliorange

My name is URL wrote: »

I very seldom do the Lotto. Seriously, the last time I bothered was about 7 years ago around the time the Euromillions was at an insane amount.

Done a quick pick tonight for some reason and feel a bit cheated

top line - 07, 12, 13, 14, 23, 43

bottom line - 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 39

=/

wtf.. they're bad numbers so they are!

Are quick picks rigged? What are the odds of getting sequential numbers like that? If it was poker I'd be rich.. surely I deserve a prize just for getting such shitty numbers?

Every combination is equally likely.

1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely as any other combination.

My name is URL

Vitaliorange wrote: »

Every combination is equally likely.

1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely as any other combination.

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

kneemos

My name is URL wrote: »

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

It brings home the ridiculous odds of winning the thing.

Vitaliorange

My name is URL wrote: »

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

But you are only choosing one combination.

You aren't choosing every nonsequential combination.

dmc17

My name is URL wrote: »

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

1,2,3,4,5,6 have as much chance of coming out as 1,7,9,22,34,39

dmc17

My name is URL wrote: »

I very seldom do the Lotto. Seriously, the last time I bothered was about 7 years ago around the time the Euromillions was at an insane amount.

Done a quick pick tonight for some reason and feel a bit cheated

top line - 07, 12, 13, 14, 23, 43

bottom line - 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 39

=/

wtf.. they're bad numbers so they are!

Are quick picks rigged? What are the odds of getting sequential numbers like that? If it was poker I'd be rich.. surely I deserve a prize just for getting such shitty numbers?

Bring them back and state that you were not completely satisfied and wish to have a repair or suitable replacement

Aka Ishur

My name is URL wrote: »

Can you explain how? Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

I'm not doubting what you say, but don't math good muchly

Every ball has an equal chance of being picked, so a sequence has statistically exactly the same chance of being picked as your quick pick line.

Seachmall

My name is URL wrote: »

Surely a fully sequential drawing of numbers is less likely to occur than a non-sequential drawing?

You are right. There are more non-sequential combinations than there are sequential ones.

What Vitaliorange is saying is that any specific combination, sequential or not, is as likely as any other specific combination.

keithsfleet

I'm running down to the shop to pick those numbers.

We'll see who's laughing when I take a share of you're winnings.

danniemcq

Sir Osis of Liver. wrote: »

Fools tax.

I hate when people call it that,

If people go out and spend a couple quid and are in with any chance of winning no matter how small its not a tax. People aren't forced to play it every week they choose to. And if anyone thinks they are guaranteed a win or have a system then they are fools. They however are a tiny minority so you cannot apply it to everyone with the same paintbrush.

Also OP those numbers have the exact same chance of winning as all others

And on a side not NEVER buy 1,2,3,4,5,6. They are the most chosen combination of numbers so if you do win you will share with loads of people

dmc17

keithsfleet wrote: »

I'm running down to the shop to pick those numbers.

We'll see who's laughing when I take a share of you're winnings.

We'll see who's laughing when you get there and realise it's closed :pac:

Seachmall

danniemcq wrote: »

I hate when people call it that,

If people go out and spend a couple quid and are in with any chance of winning no matter how small its not a tax. People aren't forced to play it every week they choose to. And if anyone thinks they are guaranteed a win or have a system then they are fools. They however are a tiny minority so you cannot apply it to everyone with the same paintbrush.

Also OP those numbers have the exact same chance of winning as all others

And on a side not NEVER buy 1,2,3,4,5,6. They are the most chosen combination of numbers so if you do win you will share with loads of people

It's called a Fools Tax because regardless if you win or not it's a -EV purchase and therefore it is always a mathematically incorrect decision to buy a lotto ticket.

Only a fool would do so.


Yes, I said "regardless if you win or not".

wretcheddomain

Seachmall wrote: »

Only a fool would do so.

Say that to the winners...

Seachmall

wretcheddomain wrote: »

Say that to the winners...

Win or lose the maths don't change.

It's always foolish to buy a lotto ticket.

Christy42

Seachmall wrote: »

It's called a Fools Tax because regardless if you win or not it's a -EV purchase and therefore it is always a mathematically incorrect decision to buy a lotto ticket.

Only a fool would do so.


Yes, I said "regardless if you win or not".

That completely depends on your utility. If I went down every week and did the lotto it would make very little difference to my standard of living if I lost everything I put on it (sure someone could save up for a ferrari but where is your ferrari then?). However on the rare chance I would win the lotto it would completely change my life.

All euros are equal but some are more equal than others. Some people are in a situation to lose no utility if they lose the lotto but are in a position to gain a lot if they win.

Seachmall

Christy42 wrote: »

That completely depends on your utility. If I went down every week and did the lotto it would make very little difference to my standard of living if I lost everything I put on it (sure someone could save up for a ferrari but where is your ferrari then?). However on the rare chance I would win the lotto it would completely change my life.

All euros are equal but some are more equal than others. Some people are in a situation to lose no utility if they lose the lotto but are in a position to gain a lot if they win.

Regardless if you're a millionaire or a hobo you're paying the same price for the same odds.

Of course in a more practical sense then yes you take your net worth into consideration, but I'm just commenting on the "Fools Tax" aspect.

keithsfleet

dmc17 wrote: »

We'll see who's laughing when you get there and realise it's closed :pac:

You win this round sir but we shall meet again

okedoke

Christy42 wrote: »

That completely depends on your utility. If I went down every week and did the lotto it would make very little difference to my standard of living if I lost everything I put on it (sure someone could save up for a ferrari but where is your ferrari then?). However on the rare chance I would win the lotto it would completely change my life.

All euros are equal but some are more equal than others. Some people are in a situation to lose no utility if they lose the lotto but are in a position to gain a lot if they win.

or gain a lot of utility from the excitement of waiting for the numbers to be drawn

Sunhill

kneemos wrote: »

It brings home the ridiculous odds of winning the thing.

Well said!
I checked the Irish Lotto website and it seems you have 45 numbers and you pick six. The math here for working out the chances is
(45x44x43x42x41x40) divided by (6x5x4x3x2x1)
which works out at 1 in 8,145,060 -- less than one chance in eight million.
Euromillions: choose 6 from 50 which is
(50x49x48x47x46x45) divided by (6x5x4x3x2x1)
which works out at 1 in 15,890,700 -- or almost 1 in sixteen million.
I think this is the right formula anyway. Been a while since I was in school.

zenno

I just play every week just for the chance of winning a few grand, a lucky lotto win would be nice. I've done the lotto now every week for 16 years with the same numbers 15-16-17-20-28-42 and the most I have won is 57 euro a few times. Yes I've been unlucky, but one day they will come up hehe, hopefully.

If I stopped doing the lotto I'd just spend the money on crap anyway so no loss. If you're not in, you can't win.

dubscottie

Its fixed anyway.

Look at Saturdays numbers.

1, 19, 28, 31 all drawn twice over the lotto, +1 & +2 draws.

Look back at past Sat & Wed draws and in 99% of them 2 or 3 numbers get drawn more than once over the 3 draws.

The odds of that happening twice a week must be 1 - billions.

zenno

dubscottie wrote: »

Its fixed anyway.

Look at Saturdays numbers.

1, 19, 28, 31 all drawn twice over the lotto, +1 & +2 draws.

Look back at past Sat & Wed draws and in 99% of them 2 or 3 numbers get drawn more than once over the 3 draws.

The odds of that happening twice a week must be 1 - billions.

Hahahahahahaha, I'm always saying that after I didn't win. :pac:

Seachmall

dubscottie wrote: »

Its fixed anyway.

Look at Saturdays numbers.

1, 19, 28, 31 all drawn twice over the lotto, +1 & +2 draws.

Look back at past Sat & Wed draws and in 99% of them 2 or 3 numbers get drawn more than once over the 3 draws.

The odds of that happening twice a week must be 1 - billions.

One in a billion chances happen millions of times every day.

GarIT

Sunhill wrote: »

Well said!
I checked the Irish Lotto website and it seems you have 45 numbers and you pick six. The math here for working out the chances is
(45x44x43x42x41x40) divided by (6x5x4x3x2x1)
which works out at 1 in 8,145,060 -- less than one chance in eight million.
Euromillions: choose 6 from 50 which is
(50x49x48x47x46x45) divided by (6x5x4x3x2x1)
which works out at 1 in 15,890,700 -- or almost 1 in sixteen million.
I think this is the right formula anyway. Been a while since I was in school.

Why are you dividing by anything, the probability is just the first part I thought.

Fighting Irish

Sir Osis of Liver. wrote: »

Fools tax.

So is fast food

Fighting Irish

I've won the lotto 3 times using quick picks

dmc17

My name is URL wrote: »

I very seldom do the Lotto. Seriously, the last time I bothered was about 7 years ago around the time the Euromillions was at an insane amount.

Done a quick pick tonight for some reason and feel a bit cheated

top line - 07, 12, 13, 14, 23, 43

bottom line - 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 39

=/

wtf.. they're bad numbers so they are!

Are quick picks rigged? What are the odds of getting sequential numbers like that? If it was poker I'd be rich.. surely I deserve a prize just for getting such shitty numbers?

:eek: Your numbers came out...







Well, two of them anyway

Seachmall

GarIT wrote: »

Why are you dividing by anything, the probability is just the first part I thought.

The first part accounts for the number of possible combinations that can be generated, the second part is for the number of possible combinations that can win (e.g. 1,6,3... will win the same as 3,6,1...) so you divide them to get your odds.

GarIT

Seachmall wrote: »

The first part accounts for the number of possible combinations that can be generated, the second part is for the number of possible combinations that can win (e.g. 1,6,3... will win the same as 3,6,1...) so you divide them to get your odds.

You're right there, I would have done it the opposite way (1 / (45x44x43x42x41) ) X (6x5x4x3x2x1)

I'm just remembering now the way we were taught to do it in school was (6/45) x (5/44) x (4/43) x (3/42) x (2/41) x (1/40)

sock puppet

Seachmall wrote: »

It's called a Fools Tax because regardless if you win or not it's a -EV purchase and therefore it is always a mathematically incorrect decision to buy a lotto ticket.

Only a fool would do so.


Yes, I said "regardless if you win or not".

Buying car insurance is always a -EV purchase...

Sunhill

GarIT wrote: »

Why are you dividing by anything, the probability is just the first part I thought.

Am I right in saying that the probability without dividing by 6! is for picking the six numbers in a certain sequence? To win the lotto it doesn't matter in which order the numbers come out of the cage as long as you can match all six, which brings down the odds.

PS Thanks Seachmail and GarIt; didn't see your posts appearing as I was writing the above at the time.

GarIT

Sunhill wrote: »

Am I right in saying that the probability without dividing by 6! is for picking the six numbers in a certain sequence? To win the lotto it doesn't matter in which order the numbers come out of the cage as long as you can match all six, which brings down the odds.

Yeah you are, I just didn't see that at first.

Sir Osis of Liver.

An of ye lottoheads ever sit down and weigh up how much you've spent on it over the years against how much you've actually won.

I did and it ran into thousands spent in a few years all for the odd scratchcard or tenner.
Rarely do it now.
So yes its a fools tax.

Catari Jaguar

zenno wrote: »

I've done the lotto now every week for 16 years with the same numbers 15-16-18-19-28-32 and the most I have won is 57 euro a few times. Yes I've been unlucky, but one day they will come up hehe, hopefully.

I am looking for some numbers... Those seem good. I'm gonna start doing the Lotto every week now with those numbers. If you win, you have to share it with me.

zenno

Do you know what is really stingy, when you win on one line with lotto plus and you win say €5, and on this same line you win a €3 scratchcard, they only pay you the fiver as it's the higher prise, what a real rip-off.

zenno

Catari Jaguar wrote: »

I am looking for some numbers... Those seem good. I'm gonna start doing the Lotto every week now with those numbers. If you win, you have to share it with me.

I'm glad to share my winnings If they eventually come in then you will have to share with me as well, but if it's even a 2 million win, then that's a million each hehe, were still rich. Win Win I say. unless the whole of boards.ie do them numbers, then were screwed.

kneemos

Never done it but the bookies apparently give much better odds and higher payouts on lotto numbers.

zenno

kneemos wrote: »

Never done it but the bookies apparently give much better odds and higher payouts on lotto numbers.

The bookies are no different, it's still damn hard to win.

Vitaliorange

GarIT wrote: »

Why are you dividing by anything, the probability is just the first part I thought.

The first part is the number of permutations. Order doesn't matter, thats what the divisor is for.

My name is URL

I remember reading something a few years ago which claimed that you've more chance of being the guy who built the machine used to pick numbers, while your best friend was the one tasked with adjudicating the process, and an arch nemesis of yours was the one heading the the television network broadcasting the draw, while their sister matched 3 numbers... or something along those lines.

Even that is more likely than you actually winning the jackpot.

zenno

My name is URL wrote: »

I remember reading something a few years ago which claimed that you've more chance of being the guy who built the machine used to pick numbers, while your best friend was the one tasked with adjudicating the process, and an arch nemesis of yours was the one heading the the television network broadcasting the draw, while their sister matched 3 numbers... or something along those lines.

Even that is more likely than you actually winning the jackpot.

But many people still win it.

Vitaliorange

Im thinking.of a number between 1 and 8 million. if you guess it ill give you 2 million but every guess cost two euro.

irish_goat

My name is URL wrote: »

I remember reading something a few years ago which claimed that you've more chance of being the guy who built the machine used to pick numbers, while your best friend was the one tasked with adjudicating the process, and an arch nemesis of yours was the one heading the the television network broadcasting the draw, while their sister matched 3 numbers... or something along those lines.

Even that is more likely than you actually winning the jackpot.

That makes no sense.

Thoie

Vitaliorange wrote: »

Im thinking.of a number between 1 and 8 million. if you guess it ill give you 2 million but every guess cost two euro.

I PMd you the €2

6,038,058

You can send me the €2,000,000 in used fivers.

Sunhill

Vitaliorange wrote: »

Im thinking.of a number between 1 and 8 million. if you guess it ill give you 2 million but every guess cost two euro.

I'm thinking of SIX numbers between 1 and 8 million. If you guess THEM ALL I'll give you 2 million but every guess costs two euro

Edit: Oops! Forget that, didn't read the post carefully enough.Vitaliorange is representing the process accurately.

zenno

Here we go again. I won a €1 scratchcard on my other line of numbers, every week it's a bloody €1 scratchcard. The most I ever won on this is €2. Ah well, until next time.