WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

red_bairn · 25-11-2013 07:53AM

What was weather like around this time in 2010? How did the event unfold? I was abroad so I don't know the details about that winter event except that my mum bought snow boots in Lidls but she bought them really late into the event so didn't really get to use them much.

average_runner · 25-11-2013 08:55AM

red_bairn wrote: »

What was weather like around this time in 2010? How did the event unfold? I was abroad so I don't know the details about that winter event except that my mum bought snow boots in Lidls but she bought them really late into the event so didn't really get to use them much.

Think we were still in the first spell of it. It went on for a good while between nov and dec.

dopolahpec · 25-11-2013 09:00AM

red_bairn wrote: »

What was weather like around this time in 2010? How did the event unfold? I was abroad so I don't know the details about that winter event except that my mum bought snow boots in Lidls but she bought them really late into the event so didn't really get to use them much.

Well there is certainly absolutely nothing like that on the cards at the moment. At this stage in the game in 2010 the cold was all set. By comparison, cold seems a long way away looking at this morning's model output. ECM in particular is a pure stinker of a run, moving toward westerly sourced weather at the end. GFS is a bit better, but still has no high latitude blocking (what typically leads to cold spells for us - in particular greenland blocking).

I would say the charts are moving away from cold potential at the moment, and there will be no early winter bonus snow

snaps · 25-11-2013 10:38AM

We have had our first major snow of the Winter here in Southern Poland (Beskidy mountains). Rained all day yesterday then the rain turned to snow as the cold air came down from the north. So far about 8-10 cm's. Hope its Ok to post some pics here?

dopolahpec · 25-11-2013 10:53AM

GFS 6z op showing a storm of the century solution in FI.

hatrickpatrick · 25-11-2013 10:57AM

This is FI obviously, but at 204h, this would be a potential window of snow, surely?

dopolahpec · 25-11-2013 11:00AM

The GFS is definitely picking up a breakdown now of settled conditions. Possibility of stormy and cold conditions beginning to show in early December. Probably not much snow in the offing or anything like that yet. but potentially stormy especially for north and west. A change is coming

red_bairn · 25-11-2013 11:06AM

dopolahpec wrote: »

Well there is certainly absolutely nothing like that on the cards at the moment. At this stage in the game in 2010 the cold was all set. By comparison, cold seems a long way away looking at this morning's model output. ECM in particular is a pure stinker of a run, moving toward westerly sourced weather at the end. GFS is a bit better, but still has no high latitude blocking (what typically leads to cold spells for us - in particular greenland blocking).

I would say the charts are moving away from cold potential at the moment, and there will be no early winter bonus snow

Is there a certain time during the winter that we'd like to get a spell of showers to create a cold pool? I remember people were on about some cold pool from mainland Europe helping the UK and perhaps Ireland. With signs of Poland and other countries getting the chill, will this benefit us?

dopolahpec · 25-11-2013 11:12AM

red_bairn wrote: »

Is there a certain time during the winter that we'd like to get a spell of showers to create a cold pool? I remember people were on about some cold pool from mainland Europe helping the UK and perhaps Ireland. With signs of Poland and other countries getting the chill, will this benefit us?

Yeah as winter goes on the continent will get colder. However we can only tap into that if certain conditions exist, ie with easterly or north-easterly winds. We usually get easterly or northeasterly winds when large areas of high pressure establish at high latitudes, preferably over greenland, which allows the cold to flow down across us, and high pressure blocking over Scandavia can also bring in easterly winds, though the greenland block is the holy grail. Keep watching the model output for ridging in the mid-Atlantic allowing warm air to flood upwards toward Greenland.

dacogawa · 25-11-2013 04:58PM

Way out in FI but at least it's a bit different to the boring grey we have now...

gfs-1-288.png?12

hatrickpatrick · 25-11-2013 05:22PM

^ Newbish question, but in those precipitation charts, what's the difference between clear colours and the ones shaded by diagonal white lines?

Cogsy88 · 25-11-2013 05:24PM

^ Snow is white lines.

konman · 25-11-2013 05:24PM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

^ Newbish question, but in those precipitation charts, what's the difference between clear colours and the ones shaded by diagonal white lines?

The shaded ones are showing precipitation as snow

icesnowfrost · 25-11-2013 06:21PM

Simon keeling did say that there MIGHT be something to look out for mid December. Maybe some cold coming south from polar areas.

See the difference with ten days apart

hatrickpatrick · 25-11-2013 06:39PM

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Simon keeling did say that there MIGHT be something to look out for mid December. Maybe some cold coming south from polar areas.

See the difference with ten days apart

When you see it, you'll sh!t bricks

icesnowfrost · 26-11-2013 02:14AM

Looks good. Fi

dopolahpec · 26-11-2013 08:02AM

Not much new in the models this morning. Both ECM and GFS showing a brief period of northwesterly/northerly cold around day 9-10. Deeper and more snow shower possibility on the GFS. Definitely nothing epic or exciting.

dopolahpec · 26-11-2013 11:06AM

The GFS 6z is out, not much more interest developing, the same theme of a northerly incursion with possible snow showers in about 10 days time, followed by a return of high pressure from the south. Not a sniff of high level blocking.

red_bairn · 26-11-2013 11:13AM

dopolahpec wrote: »

The GFS 6z is out, not much more interest developing, the same theme of a northerly incursion with possible snow showers in about 10 days time, followed by a return of high pressure from the south. Not a sniff of high level blocking.

Get up da f**k!

("Santa, I would like a lovely Scandi high please")

whitebriar · 26-11-2013 01:03PM

Started snowing here in Boston about a half hour ago,lovely big flakes

red_bairn · 26-11-2013 01:05PM

whitebriar wrote: »

Started snowing here in Boston about a half hour ago,lovely big flakes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwNBzW40gwI

NeVeR · 26-11-2013 02:24PM

I was wondering if there is a chance of Snow in December ?

If there is, what dates ?

I can't read those charts, but would love to know

thanks.

dopolahpec · 26-11-2013 02:41PM

NeVeR wrote: »

I was wondering if there is a chance of Snow in December ?

If there is, what dates ?

I can't read those charts, but would love to know

thanks.

If you are talking about Ireland I would say there is a good chance of snow in December. The higher up a mountain you go the better that chance will improve.

mike65 · 26-11-2013 03:25PM

Where did those posts from an hour back just go to?

SnowDrifts · 26-11-2013 03:28PM

mike65 wrote: »

Where did those posts from an hour back just go to?

Apparently we are not allowed to call out long range "forecasts" for the rubbish they are?? It's ridiculous really. Where in the charter or the first post does it say posters are not allowed to comment on incorrect "forecasts"?

dopolahpec · 26-11-2013 03:34PM

I think we need some action weather on the horizon to take this thread out of the doldrums...come on 12z GFS, throw us a bone!!!

Tabnabs · 26-11-2013 03:36PM

A little something for the addicts in the waiting room perhaps?

pistolpetes11 · 26-11-2013 03:44PM

mike65 wrote: »

Where did those posts from an hour back just go to?

Off Topic posts were eradicated , if you have an issue with that you may PM me ,

Have a Super Dooper day now

rickdangerouss · 26-11-2013 05:52PM

All I can see from this link, Is 1962 and how this year is the same!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25108639

Cancel all winter forecasts, I have the one I want.

Chione, please grant my prayers, I will sacrifice for you in the hills tonight.

dopolahpec · 26-11-2013 06:57PM

ECM has suddenly thrown up the suggestion of heights migrating north to Greenland at t216. Very nice chart. Looking forward to tomorrow's run now.

WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

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