The next government

Fred Swanson · 29-10-2013 01:57PM

This post has been deleted.

ninebeanrows · 29-10-2013 02:00PM

I can see there being just enough for another FG/LAB coalition but it would only take a few minor controversies for the government to fall and we all know how flaky Labour are, couldn't stick it through a few bad turns.

onemorechance · 29-10-2013 02:46PM

FG and FF won't want go to into Gov with SF as they both fear the rise of SF and how they might eventually become the dominant party. It's another reason why both won't push any United Ireland agenda as a United Ireland would very much accelerate SF into becoming the dominant party in Irish politics. FF would not like playing second fiddle to FG, and their vote is not likely to increase should they do so. However, it would be a coup for Michael Máirtín to get them back into Government again so soon.

Happyman42 · 29-10-2013 03:05PM

joe swanson wrote: »

Apart from their fantasy economic policies, i suppose their very recent murder supporting is the reason i would never ever vote for such a shower of thugs.

As i am well able to remember the Rising and the War of Independence and i am not a 17 year old keyboard republican, i know exactly what they are.

Trying the populist, appeal to people to young/stupid to care about the recent past.

The likes of De Valera still sitting in the Dail, after what he has done and his greeting the scum that murdered indiscriminately. No sensible, decent person could ever vote for them.

Ps how come on these regular threads i see posts like 'i dont understand what it is to be Irish and that I am confused.... but, I'm gonna rant incoherently and inconsistently anyway...................(insert usual partitionist, 'I am only responsible for the good stuff' nonsense here).

Rantover (we wish :rolleyes:)

Fixed your post there.

K-9 · 29-10-2013 04:08PM

kneemos wrote: »

Not a prayer of twenty one seats.
I think people tick SF in poles to throw a spanner in the works or to piss off the Government.

That's a well researched piece so they do have a prayer, whether you think that is a good or bad thing is a different matter. I'd say they could get 20 seats which is actually a low number based on 23% or thereabouts in polls.

onemorechance · 29-10-2013 04:19PM

K-9 wrote: »

That's a well researched piece so they do have a prayer, whether you think that is a good or bad thing is a different matter. I'd say they could get 20 seats which is actually a low number based on 23% or thereabouts in polls.

Figures will for sure change over the next few years, but typically the opinion polls are very accurate.

2007 -> 2011 opinion polls

The unemployment rates are likely to be the big factor in whether or not FG/LB survive into the next Government.

Unemployment ‘to fall to 12.5% by 2014’

If it's nearer 10, then they have a hope. If youth emigration continues, then parents won't be happy to vote for more of the same.

kevmy85 · 29-10-2013 04:39PM

K-9 wrote: »

That's a well researched piece so they do have a prayer, whether you think that is a good or bad thing is a different matter. I'd say they could get 20 seats which is actually a low number based on 23% or thereabouts in polls.

If they get 23% yes they have a chance of 21 seats and yes 21 seats would be a low number on 23%. I just think most people don't believe that they will poll 23% in a general election. Their supporters are less likely to vote and some people who say they might vote SF in a poll end up not voting for them in elections. They historically have polled slightly higher in opinion polls compared to actual elections.

Also there is a margin of error. The particular poll they are basing that on was the lowest ebb of Lab and the highest of SF - possibly a margin of error thing.

onemorechance wrote: »

Figures will for sure change over the next few years, but typically the opinion polls are very accurate.

2007 -> 2011 opinion polls

The unemployment rates are likely to be the big factor in whether or not FG/LB survive into the next Government.

Unemployment ‘to fall to 12.5% by 2014’

If it's nearer 10, then they have a hope. If youth emigration continues, then parents won't be happy to vote for more of the same.

Polls are generally accurate as a snapshot in time. They can't take account of upcoming events and are not a necessarily good predictor of the public mood into the future.

It absolutely depends on the economy for FG/Lab. I think if they survive till late 2015/2016 and the economy rebounds and jobs come back to some extent they have a really decent chance of getting in again.

K-9 · 29-10-2013 04:49PM

kevmy85 wrote: »

If they get 23% yes they have a chance of 21 seats and yes 21 seats would be a low number on 23%. I just think most people don't believe that they will poll 23% in a general election. Their supporters are less likely to vote and some people who say they might vote SF in a poll end up not voting for them in elections. They historically have polled slightly higher in opinion polls compared to actual elections.

Also there is a margin of error. The particular poll they are basing that on was the lowest ebb of Lab and the highest of SF - possibly a margin of error thing.

Yeah, I think the writer mentioned he took account of that, which would be why he has a constituency break down. It's all guesswork but circa 20 seats isn't out of the question for SF. I'd be more dubious about his FF guess of 46 seats, it's possible but he wrote that he thinks FF will attract transfers next time, I'm not so sure that will be a big factor. I think FF are back to where they were pre Bertie days, transfer repugnant basically. There's a figure of about 26/27% that starts to bring in second seats for parties in constituencies, so maybe that's where he is getting 46 from, FG breached that gap in 07 after a disaster in 02.

Labour might get some sympathy transfers from FG but I'd say 11 seats is about right. Where the Labour lost seats go will probably decide the coalition partner.

kevmy85 · 29-10-2013 04:56PM

K-9 wrote: »

Yeah, I think the writer mentioned he took account of that, which would be why he has a constituency break down. It's all guesswork but circa 20 seats isn't out of the question for SF. I'd be more dubious about his FF guess of 46 seats, it's possible but he wrote that he thinks FF will attract transfers next time, I'm not so sure that will be a big factor. I think FF are back to where they were pre Bertie days, transfer repugnant basically. There's a figure of about 26/27% that starts to bring in second seats for parties in constituencies, so maybe that's where he is getting 46 from, FG breached that gap in 07 after a disaster in 02.

Labour might get some sympathy transfers from FG but I'd say 11 seats is about right. Where the Labour lost seats go will probably decide the coalition partner.

I dunno. If Labour poll at 6/7% fair enough for the 11 seats. I don't believe that'll happen - closer to 10% I reckon. Lab haven't had less than 12 seats since 1944 in a 138 seat Dail. They got 12 seats polling 6.5% in 1987. If they get 10% they'll have 14-20 seats

K-9 · 29-10-2013 05:03PM

kevmy85 wrote: »

I dunno. If Labour poll at 6/7% fair enough for the 11 seats. I don't believe that'll happen - closer to 10% I reckon. Lab haven't had less than 12 seats since 1944 in a 138 seat Dail. They got 12 seats polling 6.5% in 1987. If they get 10% they'll have 14-20 seats

Yep, but I'd say this time will be like 87, FG will not suffer that much whereas Labour will get the blame for cuts etc. 20 seats would historically be a very good election for Labour, IIRC last time and the Spring tide in 92 were the only times they got over that, I just can't see them getting close to 20 as they are the fall guys in this coalition and 14/15 seats would be doing well and a good damage limitation exercise.

The other factor is how ex-Labour TD's act in the election, stay independent or go on the ticket? They might find it difficult to get back if leadership has anything to do with it.

downwesht · 29-10-2013 05:13PM

How anyone could consider voting for FF ever again, after they breaking the country,selling us out and pocketting large pensions on their way out,is beyond me.
Ok none of us like austerity and all it entails but some crowd had to grasp the nettle and try and sort things out.
I think that the next government will probably be a FG/FF coalition.:(..it would be political suicide for either to side with SF:rolleyes:

Laois_Man · 29-10-2013 06:45PM

Where the hell is the choice? Seriously? I can't see one!

No matter who I vote for, I know with 100% certainty it will be either a FG or a FF led Government. Who they're partnering with isn't really all that important. We know it will be either Taoiseach Kenny or Taoiseach Martin. Is that really a choice? No it isn't.

The entire system needs to change. And so do attitudes...the nonsense parochial attitudes. Bertie kept getting in because of all the auld eejits voting either thru family loyalty or for the fella who was going to fill the potholes down at the crossroads....oblivious that they were electing clowns like Bertie and Co. And then when things got so severe, the greater picture did become more important and we saw the likes of Sinn Fein increase their seats on a ‘Burn the Bondholders’ sound byte. But based on opinion polls, it doesn't seem to be lasting. And the fact that people at a local level get better services if they happen to elect a TD who becomes a minister while some very large catchment areas get so swallowed up within a very large constituency, they’re effectively left with zero parliamentary representation whatsoever, even in terms of having a single TD.....what utter tripe!

What the system needs to change to, I really don’t know. I guess it could start with the election count itself because I have always thought that this single transferrable vote system was a load of absolute nonsense. I’d be much happier to see the nation divided up into much smaller one-seat constituencies with a count....one count....count ONE....no others. I know loads of people love the drama of count 3,4,5 etc....but 4ook that....if you want drama, turn on Eastenders!

Then the way work gets done after election day needs to be transformed also. Maybe make the office of President meaningful but without getting too close to the American model coz that’s littered with flaws too (as we saw recently with their Government shutdown pantomime). I don’t have all the answers, but I believe this is the type of debate we need to start.

BuilderPlumber · 30-10-2013 12:27AM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Where the hell is the choice? Seriously? I can't see one!

No matter who I vote for, I know with 100% certainty it will be either a FG or a FF led Government. Who they're partnering with isn't really all that important. We know it will be either Taoiseach Kenny or Taoiseach Martin. Is that really a choice? No it isn't.

The entire system needs to change. And so do attitudes...the nonsense parochial attitudes. Bertie kept getting in because of all the auld eejits voting either thru family loyalty or for the fella who was going to fill the potholes down at the crossroads....oblivious that they were electing clowns like Bertie and Co. And then when things got so severe, the greater picture did become more important and we saw the likes of Sinn Fein increase their seats on a ‘Burn the Bondholders’ sound byte. But based on opinion polls, it doesn't seem to be lasting. And the fact that people at a local level get better services if they happen to elect a TD who becomes a minister while some very large catchment areas get so swallowed up within a very large constituency, they’re effectively left with zero parliamentary representation whatsoever, even in terms of having a single TD.....what utter tripe!

What the system needs to change to, I really don’t know. I guess it could start with the election count itself because I have always thought that this single transferrable vote system was a load of absolute nonsense. I’d be much happier to see the nation divided up into much smaller one-seat constituencies with a count....one count....count ONE....no others. I know loads of people love the drama of count 3,4,5 etc....but 4ook that....if you want drama, turn on Eastenders!

Then the way work gets done after election day needs to be transformed also. Maybe make the office of President meaningful but without getting too close to the American model coz that’s littered with flaws too (as we saw recently with their Government shutdown pantomime). I don’t have all the answers, but I believe this is the type of debate we need to start.

There is not a hell of a lot of difference between FF, FG and Labour. If any difference at all. All three have had their good and poor politicians in their ranks but today seems to be an era of arrogance, weakness, laziness and general incompetence in politics here. No real leadership from Kenny, Gilmore or Martin and very little coming up behind them either.

As for the next election: FF and FG will get around 30% each of the vote. Labour would make up another 15% and Sinn Fein around close on 20%. Indos will get another 20% or so. The remaining 15% or so could go to a combination of Direct Democracy, Reform Alliance/Breakaway FG (should this become FG's answer the the Progressive Democrats) and da greens if they are still there!

However, the government could be FF or FG will a ragtag of all the others preferably avoiding SF. Policy would remain the usual 'muddle your way along and hope things improve to lift our boat' with cutbacks in 'bad times' and giveaways closer to the election date!

Unfortunately, some areas get saddled with talentless, poor performing TDs who will never be ministers. This is our main problem in many cases. Such constituencies tend to then rally behind strong independents the next time around. Cork has Micheal Martin which is a good thing for us .... maybe. Definitely, we will benefit if FF gain power. Then, other places will suffer.

BuilderPlumber · 31-10-2013 10:10AM

kevmy85 wrote: »

Agree with you on the independents. However voting isn't a waste of time, it's the only way you have of getting your voice heard. You are able to get out and say anything in this country, unlike North Korea or other actual dictatorships. At the moment you are not being beaten or imprisoned for saying what you feel. To say Ireland is a dictatorship is an insult to all of the people who have to suffer under really oppressive regimes.

I agree that Ireland is not a dictatorship like North Korea and Eritrea and that is for many reasons. True, many in places like these would give anything to live in a place like here. But that is not to say that our country is a shining model of 'democracy' either. I have yet to note a true democracy and democracy and politics are opposite ends and pulling in those opposite directions. Every country is on the dictatorship spectrum only some are far worse than others. Poor politicians can remind us: ok, things are not great here but compared to XX we are doing well. XX will say they are better than YY, and YY say at least we are not CC and so on until we reach AA the worst and they say maybe we are dictators but if we are not, then the rule of terrorists and anarchy will prevail.

Agreed, we have freedom of speech to say pretty much what we like in this and similar countries. But, we have no way of holding our politicians to their promises and to account once they are elected. They also like to sell us self serving and poor policies.

kevmy85 wrote: »

FF were ousted but FG, the biggest vote getter, and FF combined polled well over 50% of the votes at the time. Both those parties in essence supported the Troika programme in the last election. Labour did also but with less energy and more ambiguity. Therefore nearly 73% of the electorate voted for the Troika programme. It cannot be said that the electorate at that time completely rejected the Troika policies. That is evidently factually incorrect.

There is nothing wrong with the Troika programme per se it is how it is implemented that is wrong. The troika programme has been used and abused as an excuse for unpopular and poor policies governments have made. The worst thing this government has done are things like abolishing FAS (reducing 2000 jobs in it down to 200 and selling this as a way of getting back at the corrupt golfing highfliers at its top who are STILL within the 200 remaining employees or else comfortably pensioned off), the stupid amalgamation of VECs, and the introduction of schemes like JobBridge (without any safeguard clauses) that are WIDE OPEN for abuse by already heartless, unchristian, uncaring, etc. employers who already exploit their workers and favour cheap labour.

kevmy85 wrote: »

As for any party that doesn't implement they promises it voted in on being immediately thrown out - give me a break. That is impractical and completely inflexible. I do agree they should be held to account at election time, I do agree we need to reform the political system (allowing issues to be voted on by the people if enough signatures collected, a loosening of the whip system, making it easier to set up parties, empowering local politicians to free up national politicians from the parish pump, etc.).

5 years is way too long!! I never said immediately either. In fact, this current government was pretty ok in its first year from 2011 to the middle of 2012. I would give them the go ahead after year one to continue on. It is since the spring of 2012 and especially in the last year or so that the madness of this current government has started.

With promises, they should do their best to keep them and should be honest in what can be achieved before elections. I KNOW well that they could do other things instead of unemployment creating cutbacks and targeting the ordinary public sector. A country where Masters Degree holders, qualified professionals in all professions and trades, and small ambitious business people are either on the dole or are in menial, mundane, lowly paid jobs is definitely a failure that our government has created and that they need to improve. Policies like an unsafeguarded JobBridge, VEC amalgamations and abolishing FAS are sure ways to make these problems worse.

I agree with your reforms and it is very true that we need more local and less national government. We need our politicians in our areas and something along a more federal line in order to respond to people's issues. Daft policies dreamed up by elitist people who have become out of touch with ordinary people because of their privileged Dail lifestyle are not and cannot be aware of the problems that exist in Donegal, Cavan, Leitrim, Waterford, Roscommon, Monaghan, Longford and other poor counties is what is totally wrong.

Roger_007 · 31-10-2013 10:57AM

The biggest flaw with democracy is that almost everyone votes in their own self-interest, or in what they think is their own self-interest. Almost nobody votes in the best interest of the country and society. That is why FF were so successful for so long. They were able to dupe a large enough number of voters that they would always be better off with FF in charge. In other they appealed exclusively to the self-interest of the voters. The national interest was neither here nor there.
SF are the new FF. Their policies consist of whatever they think people want to hear. They should change their name to MF, (Me Fein).

Balmed Out · 31-10-2013 11:01AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

SF are the new FF.

Amazing how many people are blind to this.

desertcircus · 31-10-2013 11:19AM

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

I agree with your reforms and it is very true that we need more local and less national government. We need our politicians in our areas and something along a more federal line in order to respond to people's issues. Daft policies dreamed up by elitist people from Dublin not aware of the problems that exist in Donegal, Cavan, Leitrim, Waterford, Roscommon, Monaghan, Longford and other poor counties is what is totally wrong.

The Taoiseach is from Mayo. The Minister for Finance is from Limerick. The leader of the opposition is from Cork. How the hell does anyone look at Irish parish pump politics and conclude the problem is Dublin elitists? In what universe does that make sense?

donegal__road · 31-10-2013 11:42AM

desertcircus wrote: »

The Taoiseach is from Mayo. The Minister for Finance is from Limerick. The leader of the opposition is from Cork. How the hell does anyone look at Irish parish pump politics and conclude the problem is Dublin elitists? In what universe does that make sense?

they would probably be referring to the previous shower, who took the whole country with both hands and willingly drove it into the ground.

desertcircus · 31-10-2013 11:53AM

donegal__road wrote: »

they would probably be referring to the previous shower, who took the whole country with both hands and willingly drove it into the ground.

So Brian Cowen and that noted snob and elitist Bertie Ahern. The myriad failings of Irish politics have SFA to do with Dublin elitism and everything to do with parish pump politics, short-termism, and Civil War-era divisions.

BuilderPlumber · 31-10-2013 12:02PM

desertcircus wrote: »

The Taoiseach is from Mayo. The Minister for Finance is from Limerick. The leader of the opposition is from Cork. How the hell does anyone look at Irish parish pump politics and conclude the problem is Dublin elitists? In what universe does that make sense?

Who said Dublin elitists have to be actually from Dublin? I have great respect for Dublin people and have lived there up until a few years back. When I say Dublin elitists, I mean anyone from any part of the country who go to (the upper class environs of) Dublin (inclusive of Dail Eireann and its Seanad and bar), fall in love with the life and get out of touch with the people. Kenny has presided or tolerated at least policy that has detrimental affects on his own native county. Noonan has looked after Limerick city much more than the county. Martin wrt Cork (where I currently live), I'll know all about soon enough.

When politicians enact legislation where they cut back people's jobs with programmes like this FAS abolishment or VEC amalgamation (when they earn fortunes and are gonna retire on same) or income via the unsafeguarded JobBridge (none of these will ever avail of that programme this side of the revolution at least!) or close hospitals, post offices and schools in rural areas (when these services are numerous in their own work environment around the Dail), or enact drink driving laws without any thought for cheaper transport to and from venues or for the survival of venues which create livelihoods and employment (when they themselves are within 5 feet of their own private, totally unlicenced bar where they can drink all night and drive home if they want (they are above the law) or get taxis if they are more careful but at the tax payers' expense), this is when they are acting totally out of touch.

I apologise: Call it Dail elitism not Dublin elitism as I did not mean to slate the majority of our decent, hardworking people in our capital who also do not see the spoils of these traitors we have in our Dail. I should have rephrased that better so apologies.

BuilderPlumber · 31-10-2013 12:22PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

The biggest flaw with democracy is that almost everyone votes in their own self-interest, or in what they think is their own self-interest. Almost nobody votes in the best interest of the country and society. That is why FF were so successful for so long. They were able to dupe a large enough number of voters that they would always be better off with FF in charge. In other they appealed exclusively to the self-interest of the voters. The national interest was neither here nor there.
SF are the new FF. Their policies consist of whatever they think people want to hear. They should change their name to MF, (Me Fein).

For the most part, every person's self interest is also the national interest. What most people want is: to finish school, go to college/learn a trade/progress to a certain career, be allowed practice in that career and be independent. This is something the government does not give us. Politicians should realise that they are there to help all of us along in whatever we do. We are their customers and the supplier/customer relationship should be no different here than anywhere else.

As for SF: I don't trust them any more or less than any of the rest. When a party walks the walk as well as talks the talk, then I will respect them. But, FF, the current government and I'm pretty sure SF too will all end up paralysed by a combination of corruption, cronyism and incompetence that has crippled Irish politics for generations. The average SF politician does not seem to me to be any more talented, energetic or exciting than FF, FG, Labour, etc.

BuilderPlumber · 31-10-2013 12:33PM

desertcircus wrote: »

So Brian Cowen and that noted snob and elitist Bertie Ahern. The myriad failings of Irish politics have SFA to do with Dublin elitism and everything to do with parish pump politics, short-termism, and Civil War-era divisions.

I already corrected the term Dublin elitism to mean Dail elitism where politicians from anywhere get a taste of the good life and loose touch with their electorate. As we are aware, the vaste majority of recent prominent politicians are/were not native to Dublin but all got a taste for the fine life around Dail Eireann. As for Bertie: he was from Drumcondra, a middle class part of Dublin, and forgot all about where he came from when he moved to Dail circles too. I know Bertie is not popular with many people from Drumcondra.

Short-termism and civil war era divisions are also of course major flaws. As is tunnel vision: solving one problem and creating another without realising that this would happen.

As for so-called parish pump politics: in a way, it is a good thing. That the local politician can solve worthwhile local problems like getting jobs for people and getting initiative started or getting a hospital or university up and running.

But ALL TOO OFTEN, the concept is associated with issues like: 'getting the pension or planning permission' for someone, when in reality the person is entitled to it anyway! OR when the co. council decide to fill the potholes, the politician will say 'I got it done' even though he/she never had anything to do with the decision which was made by the county manager.

the_syco · 31-10-2013 12:57PM

stmol32 wrote: »

But I've been an Irish citizen longer than that I can't help but have the depressing feeling that Irish voters will completely forget the horrible record of Fianna Fail and give them another go in the next election.

Oh, like SF's past?

BuilderPlumber · 31-10-2013 03:20PM

pajopearl wrote: »

Why not!? I mean, the face of the party is the gripe of the majority of folk in this country. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Sinn Fein sympathizer by any means. I voted FG in the last election, but I reckon I'll go FF in the next if Martin stays. Not that he'll be able to do any more than the current shambles given the restrictions they'll be hogtied with. But still, wouldn't SF do a whole lot better across the country if they didn't have an alleged, repeat... alleged, murderer at the helm?

To be honest, I often don't know who to go voting for. There is obviously not much difference between FF, FG and Labour (all lead by dull, weak men and with talentless TDs for the most part). SF I agree needs to get rid of Gerry Adams (I'm not saying Adams is a bad or a good man here but there is a sector who does not at all trust him under any circumstances and this does restrict voters from voting for the party) and replace him with someone who could gain more trust.

The day is gone for the weak, incompetent, aloof corrupt politician. The likes of Ray Burke made careers out of this and the likes of Ruari Quinn and James Reilly are still stuck in that era with their arrogance. But the fact that people don't trust SF and believe voting for smaller parties is a waste means that voters swing from FF to FG everytime and back again.

Duckjob · 31-10-2013 03:51PM

SF's past wouldn't preclude me from voting for them. However, their narnia style, populist, socialist, tax-the-crap-out-of-anyone-that-dares-to-achieve-anything economic policies always will.

desertcircus · 31-10-2013 08:17PM

Duckjob wrote: »

SF's past wouldn't preclude me from voting for them. However, their narnia style, populist, socialist, tax-the-crap-out-of-anyone-that-dares-to-achieve-anything economic policies always will.

While I have limited time for SF, there are two things that really annoy me about how people dismiss them: their past and their economic policies. I'm not sure why we can insist to the DUP that they have to work with people who would have happily killed them twenty years ago, and in the next breath refuse to consider SF as a government partner down south on moral grounds. If Paisley can stomach them, surely we can.

As for their economics being nuts: they're fairly left-of-centre, but they're nowhere near being the most economically ruinous of the major parties. FF managed to truly destroy our economy, but even they don't get the scorn SF do. Leftist party with no prospects of government make crazy costings? What a surprise. If there's a serious chance of government next time round, their policies will be brought in line at record speed.

I have no interest in voting SF, but that's because their basis for existence - a united Ireland - is of zero interest to me.

Clandestine · 31-10-2013 08:28PM

I wouldn't vote for any current political party. All are either too conservative in their social policies or too socialistic.

The next government

Comments