The next government

Banjo String · 29-10-2013 07:42AM

meoklmrk91 wrote: »

I would also be very worried about their experience or lack there of, they have never even been part of a coalition government. I would worry that because of this they would drive us even further into the abyss. I know every party has to start somewhere but this is no the time to be experimenting.

They've been in coalition now, (very successfully too) since 2007.
So successful in govt, that the other nationalist party in the north (SDLP) has pretty much been voted into irrelevance.

kneemos wrote: »

2011 was an anti FF vote.

FG got in on the back of an anti FF vote. 2016 will be an anti FG/Lab vote. If they make it that far.

Phoebas · 29-10-2013 08:09AM

stmol32 wrote: »

I've always been a Sinn Fein voter ever since I became an adult and I reckon they're the right men and women for the job.

But I've been an Irish citizen longer than that I can't help but have the depressing feeling that Irish voters will completely forget the horrible record of Fianna Fail and give them another go in the next election.

We shouldn't forget FFs ruinous past. Check.
We should forget SFs murderous past. Check.

Richard Hillman · 29-10-2013 08:34AM

Sinn Fein are just Fianna Fail 2.0. They will be involved in a few bonanza budgets and when it all goes to ****, Fine Gael will have to pick up the pieces.

Remember, at the height of the boom Sinn Fein wanted the dole to be €300.

Banjo String · 29-10-2013 08:39AM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Sinn Fein are just Fianna Fail 2.0. They will be involved in a few bonanza budgets and when it all goes to ****, Fine Gael will have to pick up the pieces.

Plenty probably remember Enda Kenny and co whinging after every 'bonanza budget' that the then govt did not give away enough.

By that logic, if they'd have been in power instead of FF the country would be in a bigger mess.

Why do so many ignore this fact?

Richard Hillman · 29-10-2013 08:50AM

Banjo String wrote: »

Plenty probably remember Enda Kenny and co whinging after every 'bonanza budget' that the then govt did not give away enough.

By that logic, if they'd have been in power instead of FF the country would be in a bigger mess.

Why do so many ignore this fact?

You may remember remember Fine Gael describing one of FFs budgets as auction politics.

spank_inferno · 29-10-2013 09:15AM

Do SF have enough quality candidates to reflect their national poll numbers?

Taking my own constituancy - Wicklow.
The SF candidate came close last time to being elected... But he doesnt seem to over furnished with smarts..... Its hard to see him being elected again with Stephen Donnelly being the only TD in Wicklow with a voice & half a brain.

the groutch · 29-10-2013 09:31AM

spank_inferno wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly being the only TD in Wicklow the country with a voice & half a brain.

the more Stephen Donnellys we get into the Dail the better.

Banjo String · 29-10-2013 09:47AM

the groutch wrote: »

the more Stephen Donnellys we get into the Dail the better.

Agreed

Sir Humphrey Appleby · 29-10-2013 10:04AM

pajopearl wrote: »

Probably belongs better in politics but I'm interested to hear what the good folk of AH have to say about this.

It'll probably never happen but imagine for a second that Gerry sttod down from the leadership of Sinn Fein, would they actually have a chance at being a part of the next government?

Hopefully not.

Ghost Buster · 29-10-2013 10:05AM

stmol32 wrote: »

I've always been a Sinn Fein voter ever since I became an adult and I reckon they're the right men and women for the job.

But I've been an Irish citizen longer than that I can't help but have the depressing feeling that Irish voters will completely forget the horrible record of Fianna Fail and give them another go in the next election.

I wont forget the horrible record of FF but then again neither will i forget the horrible record of SF and Adams and McGuinness in particular. Once the people who killed people are gone i might consider SF but until then......

Happyman42 · 29-10-2013 10:50AM

Ghost Buster wrote: »

I wont forget the horrible record of FF but then again neither will i forget the horrible record of SF and Adams and McGuinness in particular. Once the people who killed people are gone i might consider SF but until then......

....you'll stay up on your moral high ground selectively choosing what to forget?

LeinsterDub · 29-10-2013 10:53AM

TeddyTedson wrote: »

The poles say yes:pac::pac:

I didn't think they were allowed vote in General elections only Presidential and European .

Mint Aero · 29-10-2013 11:02AM

Absolutely disgusting to read some of the comments about Sinn Fein here. Interesting to see who these posters are anyway. Gerry for president.

Fred Swanson · 29-10-2013 11:06AM

This post has been deleted.

Mint Aero · 29-10-2013 11:10AM

Fred Swanson wrote: »

Why is it disgusting? The party is lead by what right minded people would class as criminals.

Oh for god sake

BuilderPlumber · 29-10-2013 11:17AM

Ghost Buster wrote: »

I wont forget the horrible record of FF but then again neither will i forget the horrible record of SF and Adams and McGuinness in particular. Once the people who killed people are gone i might consider SF but until then......

Irish politics stinks to high heavens to be honest. All parties and most individuals are either outright corrupt, lazy or incompetent. Very few have the skills to engage with the people and show very poor leadership.

FF presided over a a reckless building boom that gave people a false sense of security. The current government promised they'd implement fairer policies and reverse a lot of the draconian cutbacks only to assume power and continue the same as FF were and arguably worse. SF is full of dodgy characters from the 1979-1998 Northern Ireland war period I just don't trust. Other parties/would be parties like Direct Democracy or Reform Alliance may mean well but are too small to be taken seriously. Independents are often just FF/FG/Labour rejects who side with their traditional allegiances when the chips are down.

To be honest, voting is therefore a waste of time. The people's voice was not listened to by this current government and it is undemocratic that they went back on their commitment to change. FF were ousted because of their cutbacks policies and the current regime was elected to do away with these policies. That our vote only changed faces and not policies does well and truly mean we are living under a dictatorship: maybe not quite North Korea or Eritrea but not a healthy democracy where governments reflect the people's will either.

There should be a clause in there to render any government who does not implement what they promised voters irrelevant. The 2011 election was pointless and did not move Ireland any closer to democracy. Instead, Enda Kenny is on some kind of ego trip and Mario Rosenstock's portrayal of him as Hitler-lite is not that terribly far off the map!

TwoShedsJackson · 29-10-2013 12:15PM

Mint Aero wrote: »

Absolutely disgusting to read some of the comments about Sinn Fein here. Interesting to see who these posters are anyway. Gerry for president.

Watch out, anyone who won't vote SF is now on Mint Aero's 'list'.

Maximus Alexander · 29-10-2013 12:18PM

I don't like any of the parties at this stage. Independents will be getting my vote going forward.

harryr711 · 29-10-2013 12:28PM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

I don't like any of the parties at this stage. Independents will be getting my vote going forward.

Which is even more pointless because unless independents team up with parties, like the Healy-Rae's and FF, they'll get nothing done. We could do with less Ming Flanagan types in the Dáil.

Maximus Alexander · 29-10-2013 12:30PM

harryr711 wrote: »

Which is even more pointless because unless independents team up with parties, like the Healy-Rae's and FF, they'll get nothing done. We could do with less Ming Flanagan types in the Dáil.

I'd be fine with more Ming Flanagan types if its at the expense of the sort of people who come up with schemes like JobBridge.

Regardless of whether they subsequently team up with parties, I won't be directly complicit in voting for those clowns.

Jester252 · 29-10-2013 12:37PM

I would stick with FG. We got the sh1t dumped on them by FF and they are digging us out of it.

Sleepy · 29-10-2013 12:46PM

It's quite likely Sinn Fein will hold the balance of power if one is to assume that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael won't go into coalition together.

Labour are likely to be decimated and I can't see Fine Gael getting any gains. Fianna Fail will no doubt see some sort of recovery but nowhere near a majority and Independents are likely to drop in number (as those who've voted for them in the last election see just how powerless they are).

I personally think there's a massive gap in Irish politics for an economically right-wing party that's left-wing on social issues (e.g. gay marriage, abortion, decriminalization of marijuana etc.). I suspect this is where Micheal Martin is trying to position Fianna Fail but most of us who'd vote this way would never trust Fianna Fail again. Were the likes of Stephen Donnelly and Shane Ross to launch such a party prior to the next election with enough quality candidates, I think they'd end up in coalition with FG.

In the absence of such a party, I'll be voting Fine Gael as despite disagreeing with them on many social issues, I think they're the best bet economically and, at present, that's the most important thing. I can't see them winning a majority though so my guess is that we would actually see a Fianna Fail / Fine Gael coalition and, ultimately, if we could ever get the two parties to fully merge, the end of civil war politics could only be a good thing for Ireland.

Anyone · 29-10-2013 12:49PM

My guess is the next gov will be a FF minority Gov. As much as people detest them, most people who dislike them dont vote, while people who do support them vote with a high turnout.

As for Sinn Fein, they wont ever get in power, no political party would get involved with them.

kevmy85 · 29-10-2013 01:12PM

onemorechance wrote: »

I think Sinn Féin will hold the balance of power in the next general election. Fine Gael and Labour will both lose seats, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin will gain seats. They should all do the right thing and form a unity Government.

Irish Times

I don't think it'll be anything like those numbers tbh. Closer to FG 30%, FF 22%, SF 19%, Lab 10%, Ind/Oth 19%.

FG are holding up very well as they are doing what the majority of people who voted for them expected them to do. Some of their vote will go back to FF where it came from. Lab will be back to their core vote of the last 25 yrs. SF will make strong gains, mainly from Lab but it won't translate into the same number of seats.

Prediction FG 65, FF 38, Lab 16, SF 18, Ind/Oth 21

I can't see SF getting any more than that. Plainly and simply because they don't have the people in position on the ground in enough constituencies and are still transfer unfriendly. Lab will be propped up by FG transfers. It'll leave it tough to form a government because it could well be possible to go with FG/Lab again but only just. Will Lab want to go into government again with FG? Will FG want a potentially unstable alliance? Would they be willing to go into power with historical rivals FF or complete opposite SF? If I was a betting man I'd stick a fiver on both FG/Lab and FG/FF

Richard Hillman wrote: »

You may remember remember Fine Gael describing one of FFs budgets as auction politics.

They did and when Noonan ran as a voice of reason in 2002 the electorate completely rejected it.

the groutch wrote: »

the more Stephen Donnellys we get into the Dail the better.

True. If we're lucky we could get 3-5 of him in the next time. Then they could look at forming some kind of a more libertarian-style party.

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

Independents are often just FF/FG/Labour rejects who side with their traditional allegiances when the chips are down.

To be honest, voting is therefore a waste of time. The people's voice was not listened to by this current government and it is undemocratic that they went back on their commitment to change. FF were ousted because of their cutbacks policies and the current regime was elected to do away with these policies. That our vote only changed faces and not policies does well and truly mean we are living under a dictatorship: maybe not quite North Korea or Eritrea but not a healthy democracy where governments reflect the people's will either.

There should be a clause in there to render any government who does not implement what they promised voters irrelevant. The 2011 election was pointless and did not move Ireland any closer to democracy. Instead, Enda Kenny is on some kind of ego trip and Mario Rosenstock's portrayal of him as Hitler-lite is not that terribly far off the map!

Agree with you on the independents. However voting isn't a waste of time, it's the only way you have of getting your voice heard. You are able to get out and say anything in this country, unlike North Korea or other actual dictatorships. At the moment you are not being beaten or imprisoned for saying what you feel. To say Ireland is a dictatorship is an insult to all of the people who have to suffer under really oppressive regimes.

FF were ousted but FG, the biggest vote getter, and FF combined polled well over 50% of the votes at the time. Both those parties in essence supported the Troika programme in the last election. Labour did also but with less energy and more ambiguity. Therefore nearly 73% of the electorate voted for the Troika programme. It cannot be said that the electorate at that time completely rejected the Troika policies. That is evidently factually incorrect.

As for any party that doesn't implement they promises it voted in on being immediately thrown out - give me a break. That is impractical and completely inflexible. I do agree they should be held to account at election time, I do agree we need to reform the political system (allowing issues to be voted on by the people if enough signatures collected, a loosening of the whip system, making it easier to set up parties, empowering local politicians to free up national politicians from the parish pump, etc.).

Engine No.9 · 29-10-2013 01:18PM

I've just remembered something my father said to me as a youngfla. He told me he'd never vote labour or fg because as soon as they get in the economy just stops moving. Building and construction projects just stop and the country goes back instead of forward. I suppose he was right in a sense given that the entire road network project was abandoned soon after the current coalition came in. But historically then, is that just a consequence of what came before it?

Savoir.Faire · 29-10-2013 01:32PM

pajopearl wrote: »

I've just remembered something my father said to me as a youngfla. He told me he'd never vote labour or fg because as soon as they get in the economy just stops moving.

I remember reading something about the State being broke, having to call in the IMF and ECB, being on the edge of financial disaster, a property bubble and an extremely generous social support structure. Seemed rather serious at the time.

Might be linked to that?

Jester252 · 29-10-2013 01:46PM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

I'd be fine with more Ming Flanagan types if its at the expense of the sort of people who come up with schemes like JobBridge.

Regardless of whether they subsequently team up with parties, I won't be directly complicit in voting for those clowns.

Nothing will get done. People will just walk out at the slightest hint of debate, legislation of bills will only be presented at the last minute. Not to mention the fines from the EU due to a small number of people cutting turf and that just the tip of the iceberg. What hell have you imaged?
Still not as bad as Sinn Fein cut tax increase expense policy

joe swanson · 29-10-2013 01:50PM

I see its time for a shinnerbot thread.

Apart from their fantasy economic policies, i suppose their very recent murder supporting is the reason i would never ever vote for such a shower of thugs.

As i am well able to remember the troubles and i am not a 17 year old keyboard republican, i know exactly what they are.

Trying the populist, appeal to people to young/stupid to care about the recent past.

The likes of Ferris still sitting in the Dail, after what he has done and his greeting the scum that murdered gerry mccabe. No sensible, decent person could ever vote for them.

Ps how come on these regular threads i see posts like 'i dont support sinn fein but...................(insert shinnerbot lovestory here).

Rantover

Fred Swanson · 29-10-2013 01:52PM

This post has been deleted.

ninebeanrows · 29-10-2013 01:56PM

The bookies think a FF/FG government is quite likely.

There appears two options:

FF/FG

FG/LAB

or if you want a punt FF/SF

The next government

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