NFL Betting Thread - 2013/2014

Hulk Hands · 04-09-2013 08:38PM

Bateman wrote: »

I definitely like the Ravens in week 1

Totals I like:

Arizona Cardinals Over 5.5 Wins
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 Wins
Cincinnati Bengals Over 8.5 Wins
San Diego Chargers Under 7.5 Wins

If I was backing 1, I think it will be the Bengals

I've had a long look through the majority of teams season totals, pricing every game for the ones I thought we're too big/small. Personally I think the Bengals under 8.5 wins at 6/4 is a cracking bet.

Going through all their games, i've only made them favs in 7, strong favs in 2 and slight in 5. In the rest they are slight outsiders. Overall I think over/under 8 would be a fair total, so don't have a huge issue with 8.5. What I do have issue with is that it's 4/7 over 8.5 and 6/4 under. That's wrong and im delighted with 6/4 here on what i'd see as a 4/5 shot max. They are likely to have a losing record after 5 games so can review the situation then

Otherwise I love the Over 11.5 Broncos (10/11) where I have them as 1/2 favs or shorter a whopping 11 times, close to 'pickem' 3 times and slight outsiders twice. They have a very nice schedule, as good as last year where they had teething problems and started 1-3, only to win the remainder. They should hit the ground running this year.

It's a similar story with the Pats at over 11 (6/4), while a somewhat related bet is the Dolphins under 8 (19/20), where i've only made them clear favs 3 times.

JONJO THE MISER · 05-09-2013 02:32AM

After much study over the last few days im going for over 48.5 pts in the Ravens game, 10//11 with Boylesports.

Hulk Hands · 05-09-2013 10:39PM

Guys, Youwin doing 100% lines for tonights game, moneyline and spread. It's also moneyback if you lose in OT and moneyback if Ray Rice score the first TD. Superb stuff. For any casual gamblers out there, this is an incredibly rare time where you can place a bet and be sure it's +EV. Fast becoming the best place to back on NFL

Fenix · 05-09-2013 10:53PM

Paddypower :
Wes Welker anytime touchdown scorer 5/4!

Where have Youwin sprung from?! Seems like they are here all of a sudden, or maybe I've been hiding under a rock this past while?

JaMarcus Hustle · 05-09-2013 10:54PM

Have the Ravens to cover as part of this weekend's bets, but stuck a sneaky 20 on them to win outright too given Broncos defensive situation.

kryogen · 05-09-2013 11:10PM

My bets from the opening weekend

Have 1 6 fold and other bets containing the teams shown

kryogen · 05-09-2013 11:12PM

I am aware of the **** up I made with the Ravens-Broncos game but they wont change it for me now! No idea how I clicked on both results and missed it while checking the bet! (Meant to just back the Ravens obv)

Ah well, at least my bets cant be ****ed after tonight I guess

Onecoolcookie · 06-09-2013 12:39AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Guys, Youwin doing 100% lines for tonights game, moneyline and spread. It's also moneyback if you lose in OT and moneyback if Ray Rice score the first TD. Superb stuff. For any casual gamblers out there, this is an incredibly rare time where you can place a bet and be sure it's +EV. Fast becoming the best place to back on NFL

Interesting, never heard of these guys before but looking to change online bookmakers myself at the moment. How would you rate them for other sports, tennis, football etc?

In tonights game I like the look of the Ravens with the handicap +7.5, without Miller and Dumervil to rush the passer Flacco will have time in the pocket to try and pick apart this Broncos D.

Hulk Hands · 06-09-2013 03:53AM

Onecoolcookie wrote: »

Interesting, never heard of these guys before but looking to change online bookmakers myself at the moment. How would you rate them for other sports, tennis, football etc?

In tonights game I like the look of the Ravens with the handicap +7.5, without Miller and Dumervil to rush the passer Flacco will have time in the pocket to try and pick apart this Broncos D.

Well you've probably asked the pickiest person in the world. Open accounts with every single major bookie. There is no reason not to have accounts with them all. People will walk an extra 10 mins if a jersey is 10 quid cheaper elsewhere, so why wont they spend 3 mins opening an account to get better odds. You say you're looking for a new bookie? You're new bookie should be oddschecker.com and you should place bets with whoever is best price. For what its worth, if you're to have one Youwin seems to be best for NFL. Otherwise i'd say bet365, with PP a close second for all other sports

elarkin · 07-09-2013 12:06PM

Was on paddy power last night and saw a few money back specials.

1st one was that PP would refund your bet if you lost on your 5+ fold match bet. Max bet was 10er. Surely this is a free bet. Just pick 5 or more matches and if any one or more loses you get your stake back?!

2nd was they are doing money back on your losing Superbowl outright betting if the Broncos or 49ers win the Superbowl. Surely an even better reason to back the seahawks?!

JaMarcus Hustle · 07-09-2013 12:53PM

Pretty sure that first one is that you get your money back if only one bet let's your 5 fold down, i.e. you get 4/5 right.

padraig_f · 07-09-2013 01:05PM

I think it is simply money-back, nice spot. Max bet of a tenner, but you might as well have a whirl. Also money back is in the form of a free bet (i.e. not directly withdrawable), and you have to use it by the following week.

Paddy Power wrote:

If your 5-fold or bigger NFL Match Betting ACCA doesn’t win, we'll give you your money back as a free bet on next week's NFL. You can't lose!

Paddy Power wrote:

Conditions
Applies to 5+ fold accums on NFL Match Betting markets placed pre-match only.
Applies to all Week 1 NFL fixtures. The offer will not be credited until 2pm on Wednesday 11th September.
Refund will be credited as a free bet on American Football and will be valid for 7 days.
Max free bet €/£10 per customer. Free bet stake not included in winnings.
Applies to online and mobile bets only. Phone, text or shop bets do not apply.

Edit: another note, needs to be match betting, not handicap betting.

Paully D · 07-09-2013 01:25PM

You will probably be only able to use your free bet refund on a single bet also, no double or trebles etc. That's what happens on these refund specials on the football.

padraig_f · 07-09-2013 01:34PM

elarkin wrote: »

2nd was they are doing money back on your losing Superbowl outright betting if the Broncos or 49ers win the Superbowl. Surely an even better reason to back the seahawks?!

This is a pretty good one too, Broncos are 6.5 to win the Super Bowl, 49ers are 7.5. Means there's roughly a (15% + 13%) = 28% chance one of the two win.

I did it, took Seahawks (9.0), Saints (21.0) and Bears (34.0). You can make multiple bets, max refund between them is 100.

elarkin · 07-09-2013 02:59PM

JaMarcus Hustle wrote: »

Pretty sure that first one is that you get your money back if only one bet let's your 5 fold down, i.e. you get 4/5 right.

Read T&Cs in it and it is money back guaranteed ni matter how many bets let you down. Still worth a risk. Think I might throw in a few dead certs and maybe one risky bet. I know it's only a free bet refund but still can easily use it for a good spot the next week.

What's everyone's thoughts on the falcons @ saints. I see the saints are favourites. I know Sean payton is back and all but the falcons were so good last year! Thinking of backing falcons to win the match. Or is this a silly move?

Hulk Hands · 07-09-2013 03:50PM

elarkin wrote: »

Read T&Cs in it and it is money back guaranteed ni matter how many bets let you down. Still worth a risk. Think I might throw in a few dead certs and maybe one risky bet. I know it's only a free bet refund but still can easily use it for a good spot the next week.

What's everyone's thoughts on the falcons @ saints. I see the saints are favourites. I know Sean payton is back and all but the falcons were so good last year! Thinking of backing falcons to win the match. Or is this a silly move?

Bookie's are basically saying both the Falcons and Saints are equal, with the Saints being favs due to home advantage. If you think the Falcons are better, fire away

padraig_f · 07-09-2013 04:21PM

elarkin wrote: »

What's everyone's thoughts on the falcons @ saints. I see the saints are favourites. I know Sean payton is back and all but the falcons were so good last year! Thinking of backing falcons to win the match. Or is this a silly move?

I was thinking of going the other way on this. The Falcons had probably the most flattering record in the NFL last season (easy schedule plus some flukey wins on top of that). It continued in the playoffs when they got the Seahawks on the back a bruising encounter with the Redskins the week before, and two cross-country trips (Falcons won the game with a last-second field-goal).

I'm not saying they're bad, but I don't rate them as one of the best teams (they won 13 games last season, to me, they're more like a 9-10 win team).

I'd be taking a bit of a punt on the Sean Payton effect, but the Saints won 7 games last year with a real makeshift coaching staff, and won 13 games a year before (to the Falcons 10).

Ah, I don't have a real strong opinion on it, so if you do, go ahead, but I was leaning the other way.

shamrock55 · 08-09-2013 09:58AM

I think im gonna throw a tenner each on falcons @18/1 and redskins @40/1:eek: to win the sb what you guys think

padraig_f · 08-09-2013 11:02AM

My bets today, kept them relatively small with week 1 lack of confidence:

Bengals @ Bears: OVER 41.5
Steelers -7 vs. Titans
49ers -4.5 vs. Packers
Saints -3 vs. Falcons
Patriots @ Bills UNDER 51

My favourite is the Bears-Bengals over, seems to me a very low total for two teams who beefed up offensively in the off-season.

Edit: Added Patriots @ Bills UNDER 51. Patriots are missing their 5 leading receivers from last season, Bills starting a rookie QB and best offensive weapon is CJ Spiller, expecting them to run the ball a lot.

UnitedIrishman · 08-09-2013 11:33AM

Did a few small anytime TD scorer bets for interest:

Ridley and Bush
Graham, Thompkins, Bryant and Wayne

Aswell as these two accums - one is my banker additional points/spread accum:
Browns -1.5
Saints -3
Under 40 Jets/Bucs
Over 48 SF/GB
Vikings +4

Kansas +3
Colts -6
Under 51 Sea/Pan
Under 48 Pitt/Titans
Over 43 Giants/Dallas

Paully D · 08-09-2013 03:28PM

I'm going to throw ten quid on that Paddy Power money back as a free bet offer they have on the match betting.

Colts
Patriots
Buccaneers
Steelers
Chiefs
Lions

€10 will give me back €72 or a €10 bet to use on next weeks NFL.

DDC1990 · 08-09-2013 03:32PM

Have:

Bucs
Patriots
Texans
Seahawks
Chiefs
Colts
Steelers

Justin10 · 08-09-2013 05:55PM

If Asante Samuel dosent play, Atalnta will have two starting rookie corners. I expect Drew Brees to have fun with that match up.

The saints secondary aint great either.

Hulk Hands · 08-09-2013 06:03PM

All about the Vikes for me, but also on the Browns and Bears.

Edit: Jets +3.5 also

Mikeyt086 · 08-09-2013 09:36PM

****ing Bucs! :mad:

If they beat the spread I was up €350. I thought Vincent Jackson was away at the end but he got chased down by a linebacker. They settled for a FG and got punished for stupidity when I thought they couldn't possibly be more stupid with penalties. They are on my blacklist now.

kryogen · 08-09-2013 09:42PM

Well, thanks to the Bucs being the Bucs and the Colts making such a job of it my bets are in tatters

JONJO THE MISER · 08-09-2013 09:46PM

kryogen wrote: »

Colts making such a job of it my bets are in tatters

Tell me about it:(

Paully D · 08-09-2013 09:55PM

Bucs are serious accumulator busters this weekend. As the old saying goes ''there's always one.''

padraig_f · 09-09-2013 10:25PM

Ha, I hit the 5-teamer on the PP offer:

Shortish odds, 8/1, cos I picked all favourites.

Had a great day, hit my two totals, got a bit lucky to cash on the Saints and the 49ers. Made one terrible bet on the Steelers.

Like the Redskins tonight. I don't mean to be a shill for PP, cos I think they normally have bad prices, but they happen to have a good one tonight: Redskins -3.5 @ 2.0 (seems to be about 1.85 everywhere else).

kryogen · 10-09-2013 06:51AM

Got creased, amongst my losing bets were

Skins -4
Texans -4.5
Pats -9.5
Colts -9.5
Bengals +3

NFL Betting Thread - 2013/2014

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