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Gold

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Comments

  • #182
    Mahou
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 142 ✭✭Mahou


    I´m starting to think the price of paper gold is going to keep going down until physical starts getting harder to find.
    I keep saying I´ll get more gold soon but it keeps going down.

    With the gold/silver ratio at 1/64 a large silver buy is tempting but again prices are still going down.
    I think a lot of people underestimated how long the central banks and governments can drag this out for.

    Pictures from China last week where 10,000 queued for a gold sales promotion

    china-gold-demand-2.jpg

    d4bed9d4d2201322608102.jpg

    http://www.chinadailyasia.com/photo/2013-06/13/content_15075856.html


  • #183
    SyntonFenix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭SyntonFenix


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    LONG term everything that survives goes up!medium term if you buy too high you may miss a better opportunity.Short term everythings a gamble!

    Can you see a market or currency crash occurring at some point? (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-22/end-qe)

    Apparently 1 in 4 mortgages in Ireland are in arrears, what effect will that have on the banks? (http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/truly-shocking-as-one-in-four-now-unable-to-pay-their-mortgage-29364027.html)

    The decline of the US Dollar? (http://useconomy.about.com/od/criticalssues/p/dollar_collapse.htm)

    What effect will any of the above have on the price of gold, in your opinion?


  • #184
    euroboom13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭euroboom13


    SyntonFenix wrote: »
    Can you see a market or currency crash occurring at some point? (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-22/end-qe)

    Apparently 1 in 4 mortgages in Ireland are in arrears, what effect will that have on the banks? (http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/truly-shocking-as-one-in-four-now-unable-to-pay-their-mortgage-29364027.html)

    The decline of the US Dollar? (http://useconomy.about.com/od/criticalssues/p/dollar_collapse.htm)

    What effect will any of the above have on the price of gold, in your opinion?

    We are further away from a complete market or currency crash than we were in 2007/8/9.

    Considering that the banks havent really started lending again,i think the 1 in 4 morgage arrears is not a bad starting point.The number one buyer for property in this country is a morgaged buyer.As soon as the banks are prepared to lend back into the market on a scale similar to 2003/4/5 ,all percieved difficulties will be remedied.

    It is quite obvious that any decline happening in the $ is being well enginneered and not a crisis driven fluctuation as previously witness.

    Gold in my opinion is a weapon of global trade,which the middle east have been using to protect oil payments.Gold has risen so much in the past decade that if there were a fall in price it would ,in hind sight , make the west energy bill very cheap.An oil bill paid for with gold at $1700 is going to look like a steal at $1200.THAT is what is happening with gold(and trade).Relatively speaking we will have Haved our energy bill.

    Gold down not up!


  • #185
    SyntonFenix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭SyntonFenix


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    We are further away from a complete market or currency crash than we were in 2007/8/9.

    How?
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    Considering that the banks havent really started lending again,i think the 1 in 4 morgage arrears is not a bad starting point.The number one buyer for property in this country is a morgaged buyer.As soon as the banks are prepared to lend back into the market on a scale similar to 2003/4/5 ,all percieved difficulties will be remedied.

    When will this occur? What about all the negative equity and mortgage debt? You didn't mention anything about interest rates.
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    It is quite obvious that any decline happening in the $ is being well enginneered and not a crisis driven fluctuation as previously witness.

    Well engineered? You mean QE?
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    Gold in my opinion is a weapon of global trade,which the middle east have been using to protect oil payments.Gold has risen so much in the past decade that if there were a fall in price it would ,in hind sight , make the west energy bill very cheap.An oil bill paid for with gold at $1700 is going to look like a steal at $1200.THAT is what is happening with gold(and trade).Relatively speaking we will have Haved our energy bill.

    According to the US Energy Dept., the Middle East accounts for 25% of US oil supply. The main supplier being Canada. I can see the energy bill increasing.
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    Gold down not up!
    When would you suggest it might bottom or rise again?


  • #186
    euroboom13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭euroboom13


    1)All currencies are completely aware of possible collaspe,which makes it extremely less likely than when they were hit by The major banking crisis!


    2)There is no morgaged backed property market at the moment.When the time is right for property inflation,investors and banks will jump in.We are nearly at that point where inflation and interest rates start to recover,making investment attractive.Negative equity will reduce quickly,morgage debt will be more attractive to honour.Interest rates will go up ,along with rent yields (and inflation).[/I]


    f3)ed is more interested in the value of the $ than qe.



    .
    4)US energy is going through a complete change.Ramped up production and storage.Why?In my opinion it is preparing for a price war.gold/oil prices are completely related to this.That is why i wont be getting involved with either at this time![/I]


    5)I see major financial crisis in the middle east first.We are already seeing increased political change.Final changes will happen when gold and oil prices bottom out!

    All i know is what is happening now ,only makes sence ,if you factor in the middle east and why it is still booming(high gold/high oil).[/I]


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  • #187
    DarkDusk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭DarkDusk


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    f3)ed is more interested in the value of the $ than qe.
    [/I]

    There was so many things wrong with this post but this bit stood out the most... Seriously?! The Fed is more interested in the value of the Dollar more so than QE? You do know that printing money, QE, devalues the currency? I don't think I'll bother replying to your posts any more if you are going to melt my brain with these paradoxes...

    The bond market is more important than stocks and the metals market combined at the moment which is why I made a thread over here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056969783 Check it out and voice your opinion because we could be looking at another full-fledged crisis worse than 07/08 very soon...


  • #188
    SyntonFenix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭SyntonFenix


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    1)All currencies are completely aware of possible collaspe,which makes it extremely less likely than when they were hit by The major banking crisis!

    Do you mean currency markets? Do you think QE is helping the USA in regards to its sovereign debt and future economy?
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    2)There is no morgaged backed property market at the moment.When the time is right for property inflation,investors and banks will jump in.We are nearly at that point where inflation and interest rates start to recover,making investment attractive.Negative equity will reduce quickly,morgage debt will be more attractive to honour.Interest rates will go up ,along with rent yields (and inflation).[/I]

    This bit looks all wrong to me. "Negative equity will reduce quickly"?
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    f3)ed is more interested in the value of the $ than qe.

    The Fed is doing it's best to keep it's rather unstable economy and financial system afloat. It's in for some serious trouble when/if interest rates rise.
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    4)US energy is going through a complete change.Ramped up production and storage.Why?In my opinion it is preparing for a price war.gold/oil prices are completely related to this.That is why i wont be getting involved with either at this time![/I]

    Price war?
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    5)I see major financial crisis in the middle east first.We are already seeing increased political change.Final changes will happen when gold and oil prices bottom out!

    There's a financial crisis in Europe, Japan and the USA also you know. Why don't you comment on them also?
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    All i know is what is happening now ,only makes sence ,if you factor in the middle east and why it is still booming(high gold/high oil).[/I]

    I think you're making this up as you go along.

    If you are going to post can you supply some references and links to support your opinions and claims?


  • #189
    euroboom13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭euroboom13


    This is why i dont like debating on here.Its like debating with a 14 yr old.

    If you believe that you`ve spotted a major flaw in the $ that the fed havint picked up on yet ,fair play to you ,i`ve underestimated you, and for that i will appologise in the future!

    Interest rates are a central banks(fed) way of tackling inflation,if the fed decides its time to rise them, i am sure it wont cause a dollar collaspe.

    Falling poperty markets have a promblem with neg equity,rising ones dont!!

    Sorry for not stating the OBVIOUS crisis i was merely pointing out the exception (mid east),which was my point!

    As for reference,why?and do you think you will get a guide book!


  • #190
    euroboom13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭euroboom13


    DarkDusk wrote: »
    There was so many things wrong with this post but this bit stood out the most... Seriously?! The Fed is more interested in the value of the Dollar more so than QE? You do know that printing money, QE, devalues the currency? I don't think I'll bother replying to your posts any more if you are going to melt my brain with these paradoxes...

    The bond market is more important than stocks and the metals market combined at the moment which is why I made a thread over here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056969783 Check it out and voice your opinion because we could be looking at another full-fledged crisis worse than 07/08 very soon...

    The value the fed want the dollar to be dosent have to be a high value ,they may and do now want a low value.So what you found seriously wrong was your asumption that value meant higher value!!You are melting your own pixie head but i will gladly take the blame!


  • #191
    SyntonFenix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭SyntonFenix


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    This is why i dont like debating on here.Its like debating with a 14 yr old.

    If you believe that you`ve spotted a major flaw in the $ that the fed havint picked up on yet ,fair play to you ,i`ve underestimated you, and for that i will appologise in the future!

    I'm trying to make sense of your and reply to your comments, it's not personal.

    Your arrogance is noted by posting on here with vague comments and then not willing to back these comments with references. If your debating is to the same level as a 14 year old, why bother indeed?
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    Interest rates are a central banks(fed) way of tackling inflation,if the fed decides its time to rise them, i am sure it wont cause a dollar collaspe.

    Read my post again, I was referring to the economy, not a dollar collapse.
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    Falling poperty markets have a promblem with neg equity,rising ones dont!!

    You actually think this is going to happen any time soon?
    euroboom13 wrote: »
    Sorry for not stating the OBVIOUS crisis i was merely pointing out the exception (mid east),which was my point!

    As for reference,why?and do you think you will get a guide book!

    From your comments to date, you may as well be commenting on the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow.


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  • #192
    DarkDusk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭DarkDusk


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    The value the fed want the dollar to be dosent have to be a high value ,they may and do now want a low value.So what you found seriously wrong was your asumption that value meant higher value!!You are melting your own pixie head but i will gladly take the blame!

    You misunderstood my post.

    RIGHT, you said that the Fed is MORE INTERESTED in the VALUE OF THE DOLLAR than QE.

    You acknowledge you said that, right?

    Ok, HOW can the Fed be more interested in the value of the dollar IF the value of the dollar is influenced by QE? It's like saying that you are more interested in taking away your thirst than drinking water. :P


  • #193
    Roonbox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 499 ✭✭Roonbox


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    The value the fed want the dollar to be dosent have to be a high value ,they may and do now want a low value.So what you found seriously wrong was your asumption that value meant higher value!!You are melting your own pixie head but i will gladly take the blame!

    I don't think you know what your talking about.

    On another note, its getting difficult to ignore Gold and Silver here...


  • #194
    Cute Hoor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    It sure is difficult to ignore it.

    Back at the end of October, people here were saying that it was a great time to buy silver when it was $32, today its $18.5, a drop of over 40%, presumably it will rise again but people who took that advice back then would/should be sh1tting bricks at the moment.


  • #195
    DarkDusk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭DarkDusk


    Just something that I read today which I found very interesting; The reason huge selling in the gold and silver markets took place recently was because people (mostly insiders who had very large positions - remember a month or two ago when there was huge sellers of gold larger than the annual supply?) are trying to get rid of all paper assets before a dollar collapse. It actually makes sense if we are on the brink of a bond bubble bursting and an economic collapse... If the dollar does fail, all paper assets such as bonds, IOU's and paper gold and silver would be useless.

    It kinda makes you think for a minute, doesn't it?


  • #196
    DarkDusk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭DarkDusk


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    It sure is difficult to ignore it.

    Back at the end of October, people here were saying that it was a great time to buy silver when it was $32, today its $18.5, a drop of over 40%, presumably it will rise again but people who took that advice back then would/should be sh1tting bricks at the moment.

    I bought in and around those prices and I'm perfectly calm at the moment. I know that the fundamentals are still there for precious metals and the bond markets are probably on the brink of collapse, bringing down the entire monetary system with it.

    I've always said "buy the dips and sell the highs" and to space purchases over regular intervals, which is a good strategy in my mind.

    Got this from a gold/silver site which outlines some of the fundamentals supporting the markets still:
    • Is the financial crisis in the Western world over?
    • Have the G20 countries balanced their budget?
    • Have commercial banks managed to become solvent?
    • Have economic tensions around the globe improved?
    • Is a global competitive devaluation to increase exports eminent?
    • Have central banks become increasingly politicized?
    • Is the European periphery still financially challenged?
    • Do the Asian countries still have a cultural affinity to precious metals?
    • Have central banks stopped exponentially creating currency?
    • Are bank bailouts & bail-ins still a threat to the average saver's account?
    • Have US budgetary concerns been resolved?

    That'll help you sleep at night! :)


  • #197
    Cute Hoor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    So when you bought in at $32 I presume you thought it was a good time to buy, and by that I mean that you thought the price was at/near the bottom, and that the precious metal fundamentals were supporting it at that price.

    I'm off to try to get some shuteye now, interrupted undoubtedly by some nightmarish and cold sweat moments as I ponder the imminent collapse of the Euro, $ and whole monetary system, wondering what I will be able to use in the new bartering replacement.

    It certainly does make you think!


  • #198
    euroboom13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭euroboom13


    $1230 gold
    at what price is it ok to adkwowledge that caution should have been taken!
    Caution was well adviced on this post.
    And this advise is still being discredited as unfounded!
    While advise from gold/silver sales websites is being promoted and heralded as wisdom!!!


  • #199
    SyntonFenix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭SyntonFenix


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    $1230 gold
    at what price is it ok to adkwowledge that caution should have been taken!
    Caution was well adviced on this post.
    And this advise is still being discredited as unfounded!
    While advise from gold/silver sales websites is being promoted and heralded as wisdom!!!

    Advice? Your advice to date mainly consists of, "price wars' with the Middle East and "I told you so". That's your advice on the price of gold.


  • #200
    euroboom13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 650 ✭✭✭euroboom13


    SyntonFenix wrote: »
    Advice? Your advice to date mainly consists of, "price wars' with the Middle East and "I told you so". That's your advice on the price of gold.

    sorry i thought my advice was mainly dont buy gold?


  • #201
    delux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 153 ✭✭delux


    yea in fairness my impression from his posts was to stay clear of it, not to buy or short, which I think is good advice for the ordinary Joe.
    It's entertainment following the story of gold but not fun if people are getting burnt.


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  • #202
    Amouar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭Amouar


    Hi guys,

    Now that the price of gold is down, I'm thinking of buying some gold.

    Do you know of any good site that can send gold to Ireland?

    I found https://www.finegoldbars.co.uk/ so far, did any of you guys used this site? are they reliable? They seem to have a very good collection of gold bars and offer free secured delivery to Ireland, but I don't want to send them my money until I'm sure that they're legit.

    There is also http://www.thegoldbullion.co.uk/ but not sure if they deliver to Ireland.

    thanks!


  • #203
    Value Hunter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 337 ✭✭Value Hunter


    Here's a very interesting chart I came across, think it should be noted by people with skin in the game

    http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart


  • #204
    DarkDusk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭DarkDusk


    Value Hunter wrote: »
    Here's a very interesting chart I came across, think it should be noted by people with skin in the game

    http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart

    Sorry but that chart is invalid because the CPI is a bullsh!t way of measuring inflation. The best way to see if gold, or any asset, is in a bubble is to compare it to other assets such as stocks, real estate, commodities etc. If you do some research, you will realize that gold is undervalued versus the S&P, the Dow and is undervalued when priced using real inflation figures.


  • #205
    DarkDusk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭DarkDusk


    Amouar wrote: »
    Hi guys,

    Now that the price of gold is down, I'm thinking of buying some gold.

    Do you know of any good site that can send gold to Ireland?

    I found https://www.finegoldbars.co.uk/ so far, did any of you guys used this site? are they reliable? They seem to have a very good collection of gold bars and offer free secured delivery to Ireland, but I don't want to send them my money until I'm sure that they're legit.

    There is also http://www.thegoldbullion.co.uk/ but not sure if they deliver to Ireland.

    thanks!

    You should read through this thread because there is plenty of info regarding buying gold. I copied this from one of my older posts in this thread because I'm so nice :)
    Bullion Dealers in Ireland:
    http://www.bulliondirect.ie/
    http://www.irishgoldbullion.ie/

    There is no VAT on gold, as it is seen as an investment metal. However, if you are buying silver, which is the more attractive option for most people, there is VAT, and we all know that the VAT is very high here.
    You can buy from bullion dealers in Germany, which have the lower 7% VAT rate. Geiger Edelmetalle (https://www.geiger-edelmetalle.de/shop_content.php/language/en/coID/9) has dealt with many people in Ireland (inlcuding myself) and had no problems with VAT when importing etc. However they have a limit on what they can sell abroad, which they have reached. If you buy from them in January, that quota will be reset.

    For people interested in gold/silver investing, stay away from bullion bars and buy the 1oz bullion coins, American Eagles and Canadian Maples being the most liquid. The reason being, just say you buy a 50 oz silver bar at $1800. If silver goes up in price, just say to $150 (around 450%), that bar would now be valued at around 10 grand. A silver bar priced at $10,000 would be very hard to sell to someone on the street, therefore not liquid. Coins are also harder to counterfeit and are trusted more.

    EDIT:
    Look at the silver forum for lots of info: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055514901

    EDIT:
    Limits on what Geiger can sell was mentioned above but this is from last year so I don't know if they have reached their limit this year yet. You will have to contact them about that.


  • #206
    Amouar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭Amouar


    DarkDusk wrote: »
    You should read through this thread because there is plenty of info regarding buying gold. I copied this from one of my older posts in this thread because I'm so nice :)


    EDIT:
    Limits on what Geiger can sell was mentioned above but this is from last year so I don't know if they have reached their limit this year yet. You will have to contact them about that.

    Thanks a lot!

    One last question ( and thanks in advance) : the difference between the selling price and the buying price is sometimes big, which make the gain from a potential sell not very high. Do you have any recommendation on the best place to sell bullion gold?

    Thanks again


  • #207
    DarkDusk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭DarkDusk


    Amouar wrote: »
    Thanks a lot!

    One last question ( and thanks in advance) : the difference between the selling price and the buying price is sometimes big, which make the gain from a potential sell not very high. Do you have any recommendation on the best place to sell bullion gold?

    Thanks again

    To be honest, I don't worry about the "spread" between selling and buying prices because I'm holding for the long term, which I suppose you are also.

    You can sell gold easily to any of the bullion gold dealers (2 mentioned above) here in Ireland who will pay you spot price plus a bit extra.

    PM me if you want any more information, it'd be no bother at all.

    EDIT:
    If you are trying to choose between gold or silver, I'd personally go with silver as it is very undervalued versus gold (1/65th of price which is abnormally low) and versus other assets, the Dow in particular.


  • #208
    Value Hunter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 337 ✭✭Value Hunter


    DarkDusk wrote: »
    Sorry but that chart is invalid because the CPI is a bullsh!t way of measuring inflation. The best way to see if gold, or any asset, is in a bubble is to compare it to other assets such as stocks, real estate, commodities etc. If you do some research, you will realize that gold is undervalued versus the S&P, the Dow and is undervalued when priced using real inflation figures.

    Yes the CPI isn't perfect but to claim the chart as completely invalid is a bit much, I suspect you've become too emotionally attached to your position in gold


  • #209
    DarkDusk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 914 ✭✭✭DarkDusk


    Value Hunter wrote: »
    Yes the CPI isn't perfect but to claim the chart as completely invalid is a bit much, I suspect you've become too emotionally attached to your position in gold

    Well, it is very misleading. Shadow stats use real inflation figures:
    Inflation-Adjusted-Gold-High.jpeg

    Edit:
    To say gold is in a bubble is ridiculous. Of all the financial assets in the world, 1% are in gold - it is severely under-owned. When gold peaked the 80's, 26% of all financial assets were in gold. Therefore, you cannot compare the peaks in any way.


  • #210
    Value Hunter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 337 ✭✭Value Hunter


    DarkDusk wrote: »
    Well, it is very misleading. Shadow stats use real inflation figures:
    Inflation-Adjusted-Gold-High.jpeg

    Edit:
    To say gold is in a bubble is ridiculous. Of all the financial assets in the world, 1% are in gold - it is severely under-owned. When gold peaked the 80's, 26% of all financial assets were in gold. Therefore, you cannot compare the peaks in any way.



    Shadow stats is a widely discredited inflation measurement, its worrying that people take it seriously. All it does is pluck a figure out of the sky ( I believe an additional 1.5% annually) and adds in onto the CPI

    http://azizonomics.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/alt-cpi-home2-1.gif


    Regardless of the drawbacks of the CPI (I agree it is flawed) the fact remains that 99% of the financial community accept it as the recognised standard, as such they work and base there decision upon information such as the chart I initially provided, although you mightn't think it correctly priced (which I agree to a certain extent with) it provides an acceptable basis for every professional financial institute to use. It would be impossible to fight the tide of all these institutions if your using a different historical valuation comparison.

    I dont believe Gold is a bubble anymore, I think its well and truly popped at this stage. I'd get interested when it drops to within a reasonable margin of production costs, it will be hard to go lower than it costs to produce!


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  • #211
    SyntonFenix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭SyntonFenix


    euroboom13 wrote: »
    sorry i thought my advice was mainly dont buy gold?

    Any type of gold? ETFs, mining stocks, physical bullion?

    As mentioned before, the cost of mining gold is approx. $900 to $1200 per oz. Depending who you believe. Mining companies will be taking a hit on the drop in the gold price. Production is going to fall. I hope they stop mining gold altogether ;)

    Again, I will say my concern regarding gold is for the physical stuff. There is a massive correction in the gold price. Not worried at all. The roller coaster stock market is not for me and offers me entertainment more than anything. Don't have the money or the knowledge to dip my toe in it anyway.

    In regards to your comments in this thread, I'm not expecting you to predict the future. I would appreciate some factual evidence to back up your claims. "Look at what is happening in the Middle East" and "just don't buy gold", are not going to sway my views for holding physical gold for the long term.


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