Gold

SyntonFenix

stevedublin wrote: »

gold went down 12% in the two weeks after that interview.

What's your point?

Check out the prices here: http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_trksid=p5197.m570.l1313.TR10.TRC2.A0&_nkw=1oz+gold&_sacat=0&_from=R40

I'm only concerned with long term physical gold.

seklly

Is it true that all of the gold mined on earth in all history wouldn't fill 3 Olympic swimming pools? Brian Cox said it on a documentary I was watching the other day.

stevedublin

SyntonFenix wrote: »

What's your point?
.

My point is that the price of gold is going down and so is bad to invest in, unless you are shorting it.

FISMA

seklly wrote: »

Is it true that all of the gold mined on earth in all history wouldn't fill 3 Olympic swimming pools? Brian Cox said it on a documentary I was watching the other day.

I have heard two.

Even less for platinum. I think it would all fit in your living room.

DarkDusk

SyntonFenix wrote: »

What's your point?

Check out the prices here: http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_trksid=p5197.m570.l1313.TR10.TRC2.A0&_nkw=1oz+gold&_sacat=0&_from=R40

I'm only concerned with long term physical gold.

FISMA wrote: »

I have heard two.

Yes, I'm pretty sure that's correct. On the flip side, the Fed print enough money in one month to fill 3 O.S.P! (okay, dunno if that's accurate or not, but you get my point )

SyntonFenix

stevedublin wrote: »

My point is that the price of gold is going down and so is bad to invest in, unless you are shorting it.

So the price of a commodity or stock has to rise for you to invest?

Again, my position is long physical gold. I'm not the least bit concerned about the current gold price "scare".

stevedublin

SyntonFenix wrote: »

So the price of a commodity or stock has to rise for you to invest?

Yes, assuming you are trying to make money.

Roonbox

stevedublin wrote: »

Yes, assuming you are trying to make money.

But low and sell high chief

DarkDusk

Roonbox wrote: »

But low and sell high chief

Exactly what I was going to say, you don't want to be riding the tide too late...

Cute Hoor

Last November Silver was at $34 roughly. At the time people were saying, that it was a ‘great opportunity to buy’, if Obama was elected it would be up over $35, a correction was an even better opportunity to buy, silver could go to $50 within 6 months (May 2013??), if you're not in the club before silver's next move you'll be too late and the train will be moving too fast to jump on, silver will definitely be over $100 in 5 years etc etc.

Since then Silver has dropped by roughly 36% - buy low and sell high?????, is it at the bottom now????

Meanwhile, in the same period (as a sample) JP Morgan has risen by 37% (plus a 2.5% approx dividend) , Citigroup has risen by 41%.

So if you had invested $10k in Silver back then (6 months ago roughly) you would now have $6,400 approx.
And if you had invested $10k in Citigroup back then (6 months ago roughly) you would now have $14,100 approx.
By my reckoning that is a difference of roughly 120%, a not insignificant difference.

Which would have been the better investment 6 months ago??

Hindsight is 20/20 vision of course, I couldn't have predicted such negative and positive results back then, right now I don’t have a clue what their relative positions will be in 6 months time. I would query anybody who would be making such confident predictions, do proper research and don't take whatever you see on the internet as gospel.

Roonbox

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Last November Silver was at $34 roughly. At the time people were saying, that it was a ‘great opportunity to buy’, if Obama was elected it would be up over $35, a correction was an even better opportunity to buy, silver could go to $50 within 6 months (May 2013??), if you're not in the club before silver's next move you'll be too late and the train will be moving too fast to jump on, silver will definitely be over $100 in 5 years etc etc.

Since then Silver has dropped by roughly 36% - buy low and sell high?????, is it at the bottom now????

Meanwhile, in the same period (as a sample) JP Morgan has risen by 37% (plus a 2.5% approx dividend) , Citigroup has risen by 41%.

So if you had invested $10k in Silver back then (6 months ago roughly) you would now have $6,400 approx.
And if you had invested $10k in Citigroup back then (6 months ago roughly) you would now have $14,100 approx.
By my reckoning that is a difference of roughly 120%, a not insignificant difference.

Which would have been the better investment 6 months ago??

Hindsight is 20/20 vision of course, I couldn't have predicted such negative and positive results back then, right now I don’t have a clue what their relative positions will be in 6 months time. I would query anybody who would be making such confident predictions, do proper research and don't take whatever you see on the internet as gospel.

Of course JPM would have been a better investment from 6 months ago to now. Today I would buy silver, I would have back then also, I consider 6 months very short term trading.

Cute Hoor

Roonbox wrote: »

Of course JPM would have been a better investment from 6 months ago to now. Today I would buy silver, I would have back then also, I consider 6 months very short term trading.

Why wouldn't you have bought JPM 6 months ago rather than silver. You could have sold JPM now (takes less than 10 seconds) and then buy silver, that way you would now own twice as many silver bars as you have having bought 6 months ago???? I don't understand this!

Roonbox

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Why wouldn't you have bought JPM 6 months ago rather than silver. You could have sold JPM now (takes less than 10 seconds) and then buy silver, that way you would now own twice as many silver bars as you have having bought 6 months ago???? I don't understand this!

I am not a short term trader. 6 months is a very short timeline. I'm sure lots of chartists have made plenty off that trade.

DarkDusk

Roonbox wrote: »

I am not a short term trader. 6 months is a very short timeline. I'm sure lots of chartists have made plenty off that trade.

This investment/wealth preservation approach represents most of the gold/silver investing community who post in this thread.

Cute Hoor

Roonbox wrote: »

I am not a short term trader. 6 months is a very short timeline. I'm sure lots of chartists have made plenty off that trade.

What is your definition of long term trading, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? If it is say 10 years, how would you feel if the silver you have now was still at the $35ish you paid for it after 10 years, having gone to the $150 (predicted by some here) after 5 years, would you not feel a bit of a wally for not having cashed in at least some when times were good.

I presume that the reason people are traders (short or long) is to try to make a few bob, hoping to do better than you might get for your money on deposit, giving yourself better lifestyle options. So why limit yourself religiously to long term, if you can get a 40%+ return after 6 months why not take it and treat yourself and Mrs Roonbox to a month of toes pointing skywards on Lafayette beach. There won’t be room for all that silver (and you) in the final big timber box.

DarkDusk

Cute Hoor wrote: »

What is your definition of long term trading, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? If it is say 10 years, how would you feel if the silver you have now was still at the $35ish you paid for it after 10 years, having gone to the $150 (predicted by some here) after 5 years, would you not feel a bit of a wally for not having cashed in at least some when times were good.

I presume that the reason people are traders (short or long) is to try to make a few bob, hoping to do better than you might get for your money on deposit, giving yourself better lifestyle options. So why limit yourself religiously to long term, if you can get a 40%+ return after 6 months why not take it and treat yourself and Mrs Roonbox to a month of toes pointing skywards on Lafayette beach. There won’t be room for all that silver (and you) in the final big timber box.

I'm not sure if I'm speaking for Roonbox but I'd know the indicators that would show silver is overvalued. In my opinion, silver has a long way to go as it has been suppressed very aggressively recently. When I feel silver is overvalued, I will switch into another asset class. You don't understand that dollars might not be around in 5,10 years time. Maybe the next method of wealth exchange will be better than the current one and I could cash into that. You aren't going to change Roonbox's mind with appealing hypotheticals - he is holding his silver/gold for now and will cash in when the time suits, as will I.

Cute Hoor

DarkDusk wrote: »

I'm not sure if I'm speaking for Roonbox but I'd know the indicators that would show silver is overvalued. In my opinion, silver has a long way to go as it has been suppressed very aggressively recently. When I feel silver is overvalued, I will switch into another asset class. You don't understand that dollars might not be around in 5,10 years time. Maybe the next method of wealth exchange will be better than the current one and I could cash into that. You aren't going to change Roonbox's mind with appealing hypotheticals - he is holding his silver/gold for now and will cash in when the time suits, as will I.

I know I'm not going to change Roonbox's mind, who am I to try to change anyone's mind? I just don't understand how one can be happy with their decision to buy an asset class that has dropped 40% (down nearly another 1.5% today) while ignoring assets that have risen over 40% in the same period. As an aside I'm assuming it's difficult to sell silver quickly in a falling knife situation, unlike say equities where you can escape with the pressing of a computer key.

You are 100% correct of course when you say that I don't understand that dollars mightn't be around in 5 years, the buck has been around for all my lifetime to date (I think) and I'm reasonably confident/hopeful that it'll see me out. There were many discussions here and on other forums last year with posters confidently predicting the imminent break-up of the Euro, without any thought whatsoever being given to the practical implications of it. Of course it didn't happen, as I predicted it wouldn't, but I wouldn't be claiming any crystal ball like wisdom for that of course as it was a virtually impossible scenario. I'll be watching the dollar closely over the next few years and might be sneaking the odd one out from under the mattress and converting to Fils or some such currency.

DarkDusk

Cute Hoor wrote: »

I know I'm not going to change Roonbox's mind, who am I to try to change anyone's mind? I just don't understand how one can be happy with their decision to buy an asset class that has dropped 40% (down nearly another 1.5% today) while ignoring assets that have risen over 40% in the same period. As an aside I'm assuming it's difficult to sell silver quickly in a falling knife situation, unlike say equities where you can escape with the pressing of a computer key.

You are 100% correct of course when you say that I don't understand that dollars mightn't be around in 5 years, the buck has been around for all my lifetime to date (I think) and I'm reasonably confident/hopeful that it'll see me out. There were many discussions here and on other forums last year with posters confidently predicting the imminent break-up of the Euro, without any thought whatsoever being given to the practical implications of it. Of course it didn't happen, as I predicted it wouldn't, but I wouldn't be claiming any crystal ball like wisdom for that of course as it was a virtually impossible scenario. I'll be watching the dollar closely over the next few years and might be sneaking the odd one out from under the mattress and converting to Fils or some such currency.

The dollar as a backed-by-nothing currency has been around for around 40 years. There have been thousands of currencies in the past and guess what, ALL of them have failed. The average lifespan of a currency is 27 years and monetary systems get replaced every 40 years or so. The oldest currency in history, the British Sterling, has lost 99.5% of its value since it's creation - all currencies go to zero. When you see the action taken by the Federal Reserve in recent times, does emergency not cry out at you?



Cash is the last thing you want to be in when the sh!t hits the fan... :rolleyes:

euroboom13

gold $1285
silver $19.72
oil $102.5

post gone quite!

There is no reason left to say gold/silver is a safe investment.....
Great investment if bought at the rigth time ,which is NOT this year!

i would love to hear from honest traders whom got this wrong and have taken a less bullish stance!

DarkDusk

euroboom13 wrote: »

gold $1285
silver $19.72
oil $102.5

post gone quite!

There is no reason left to say gold/silver is a safe investment.....
Great investment if bought at the rigth time ,which is NOT this year!

i would love to hear from honest traders whom got this wrong and have taken a less bullish stance!

Would you like to comment on the reason why this has happened? All short term noise by the Fed, nothing of value.

FISMA

euroboom13 wrote: »

gold $1285
silver $19.72
oil $102.5

You may wish to list how commodities, equities, and bonds did today. Worst day for the market this year, correct?

What's your conclusion?

Also, check out what Paulson and Buffet are doing with their positions as of late...

Value Hunter

FISMA wrote: »

Also, check out what Paulson and Buffet are doing with their positions as of late...

Hopefully Paulson's closing his gold positions, his gold portfolio has lost 54% of its value in 6 months!

Buffets increasing his equity purchases significantly according to last quarters filings, with 11 positions being either started or increased, while only selling Kraft shares as he intends to exit his position with them.

SyntonFenix

euroboom13 wrote: »

gold $1285
silver $19.72
oil $102.5

post gone quite!

There is no reason left to say gold/silver is a safe investment.....
Great investment if bought at the rigth time ,which is NOT this year!

Are you talking about gold ETFs? Are you talking about physical gold? Or all of the above? The reasons for investing in them are varied. A lot of financial advisers would suggest around 10% of your investment portfolio should contain gold and/or other precious metals. Then you could have a hedge account to offset loss if you're holding physical gold.

You're comments continue to be related to current affairs and have very flimsy evidence to support it. Stating the bleeding obvious that if you bought gold a decade ago and that you would be better off now, doesn't confirm that gold in the future is a bad investment.

To reiterate my reasons for investing in physical gold; substantial sovereign debt through out the world, currency debasing, QE in many countries, used as a form of money for thousands of years, central banks throughout the world are buying it, it has a limited supply, preserves wealth and purchasing power.

Would you like to list the reasons where I'm wrong on this?

euroboom13 wrote: »

i would love to hear from honest traders whom got this wrong and have taken a less bullish stance!

Would you not like hear from the dishonest traders also? Whoever they may be.

I'm not a trader, I'd be considered a stacker. Whether I'm right or wrong on this, it won't bother me either way with the amount I have. Which isn't a lot.

FISMA

Value Hunter wrote: »

Hopefully Paulson's closing his gold positions, his gold portfolio has lost 54% of its value in 6 months!

Buffets increasing his equity purchases significantly according to last quarters filings, with 11 positions being either started or increased, while only selling Kraft shares as he intends to exit his position with them.

First quarter? My data for the second quarter shows both are dumping stocks. Buffet is dumping stocks directly correlated to the purchasing power of consumers. Paulson is similarly dumping, but add in banking. Lastly, Soros is almost out of banks altogether.

Not trying to be combative, but did I miss something?

If the recovery for the US is on, then why are the big boys getting out and where are they going?

Lastly, I do not blame them for dumping the paper gold. I have too, however, only to acquire physical.

Value Hunter

FISMA wrote: »

First quarter? My data for the second quarter shows both are dumping stocks. Buffet is dumping stocks directly correlated to the purchasing power of consumers. Paulson is similarly dumping, but add in banking. Lastly, Soros is almost out of banks altogether.

Not trying to be combative, but did I miss something?

If the recovery for the US is on, then why are the big boys getting out and where are they going?

Lastly, I do not blame them for dumping the paper gold. I have too, however, only to acquire physical.

Source I was using shows trades up to 31/3/13 and says its correct as of May. From January to May he's reduced 4 positions and closed 2. But he's added 4 new positions and increased 14.

I'd be very interested to see the stocks hes dumping if you could send me your info?

I wouldn't pay much attention to Paulson, particularly over Soros. Lets just say Paulson has a very very good PR team. He basically copied Michael Burry's subprime position and claimed it as his own, he's been found out post crisis with his performance.

Sorry for the rant just not a Paulson fan:pac:

Roonbox

euroboom13 wrote: »

gold $1285
silver $19.72
oil $102.5

post gone quite!

There is no reason left to say gold/silver is a safe investment.....
Great investment if bought at the rigth time ,which is NOT this year!

i would love to hear from honest traders whom got this wrong and have taken a less bullish stance!

This is the buying opportunity I have been waiting for for 2 years. (I probably have an old post here somewhere saying so). But I am still not buying. Have been Short Nasdaq for 3 months (which has been painful) . I will be transferring my short to a Silver purchase on a selling climax in the SM.

euroboom13

I only had one warning about gold ,which was ,that qe should normally mean higher commodity prices ,but that this time it was not going to happen that way.

So everyone that was cheering on gold should have some caution.

gold prices are not following qe.

The reason is gold has already been over priced ,and increasing the money supply is only reducing the fall.

Stocks are only regrouping ,strong rally coming after the summer.
Stocks are well up this year still,gold aint!

Roonbox

euroboom13 wrote: »

I only had one warning about gold ,which was ,that qe should normally mean higher commodity prices ,but that this time it was not going to happen that way.

So everyone that was cheering on gold should have some caution.

gold prices are not following qe.

The reason is gold has already been over priced ,and increasing the money supply is only reducing the fall.

Stocks are only regrouping ,strong rally coming after the summer.
Stocks are well up this year still,gold aint!

Different opinions are what makes a market, there's a buyer for every seller..

I personally think you'd be much better off buying Gold/silver/commodities now than stocks, for the short, medium and long term.

euroboom13

Buffet didnt get rich by telling people what he is doing or going to do.He only broadcasts for his own financial gain not yours.Try to see what lower gold and oil prices would mean to the global markets and i dont think you will go to far wrong.

Thats just what i see.Not trying to convince anyone but i am warning gold bugs all year. Since $1700 and still see further decline.

euroboom13

Roonbox wrote: »

Different opinions are what makes a market, there's a buyer for every seller..

I personally think you'd be much better off buying Gold/silver/commodities now than stocks, for the short, medium and long term.

I like your conviction.
I think the next month wont be pretty for anyone(especially stocks) but stocks will by far out shine everything else this year and has already!

LONG term everything that survives goes up!medium term if you buy too high you may miss a better opportunity.Short term everythings a gamble!