Is our Irish economy getting better?

seamus · 13-06-2013 03:43PM

gurramok wrote: »

Unemployment stabilised = Emigration. Full time employment figures have fallen.

In previous years you would have been right, but the trend is on the reverse now (for the moment anyway). Employment is increasing Link.

Buying cars = car sales are still down.

Indeed, maybe it's just something geographically/economically isolated, but anecdotally I've seen a lot of people buying new vehicles in the last 6/12 months.

Buying houses last year = to avail of MIR.

Funny, not one of the people I know who have or are buying property have once mentioned MIR. I'm not saying it didn't happen, but I don't think it's a big factor.

AndyMc · 13-06-2013 04:00PM

In all fairness Africa never really had an economy to crash. That place isnt a economic crisis its a warzone.

Downlinz · 13-06-2013 04:04PM

I am pie wrote: »

Some people in Ireland generally lack any kind of perspective as to what a real economic crisis is and actually feels like.

To be honest, overall, I think we got off quite lightly in comparison to Greece and Spain. Sometimes we don't know when we're well off.

Nobody exaggerates misery like the Irish, when the times were good and I'd comment on our prosperity with pride there'd be no end of people to remind me that "the bubble will burst".
The fact that during this supposed "emigration crisis" we have a net population increase is laughable and shows a real lack of perspective among those departing (construction sector understandably excused).

Though that said a big part of the general mood and confidence in the country is down to our government and our media and they've done nothing but flog the misery stories for as much as they possibly can. It really upsets me when I see Obama making rousing speeches during a moment of hardship in the states and then look back at Fine Gael squirming at our problems and generally just blaming Fianna Fail for the mess while offering no silver lining.

tayto lover · 13-06-2013 04:07PM

Dundalk like a Ghost-town.
Pubs, well what's left of them, not opening until evening. Many shops also closing
Drug addicts and winos all over the place and Simon has even closed down one shelter due to cutbacks.
The only thing rising is the amount of burglaries and the amount of young people emigrating.
Sad country to live in now.

DellyBelly · 13-06-2013 04:12PM

tayto lover wrote: »

Dundalk like a Ghost-town.
Pubs, well what's left of them, not opening until evening. Many shops also closing
Drug addicts and winos all over the place and Simon has even closed down one shelter due to cutbacks.
The only thing rising is the amount of burglaries and the amount of young people emigrating.
Sad country to live in now.

Funny you should mention that. I was in Dundalk for the first time ever the other day and I was shocked at how awful the place looked. Closed up shops on the main street and plenty of down and outs around the place. Quite shocking really.

tayto lover · 13-06-2013 04:20PM

DellyBelly wrote: »

Funny you should mention that. I was in Dundalk for the first time ever the other day and I was shocked at how awful the place looked. Closed up shops on the main street and plenty of down and outs around the place. Quite shocking really.

Yes but the thing that strikes me is the the expressions on the faces of people on the streets, nobody smiling at all. It's as if people have given up hope of things improving. Some jobs have come our way like E-Bay and National Pen but the vast amount of positions went to foreign people who can do telesales and speak other languages. Very few locals were employed in those places.

We used to be famous and employ thousands in the shoe and beer industries but those jobs have long gone now. Harp Brewery closing down for good in the near future.

gurramok · 13-06-2013 04:46PM

seamus wrote: »

In previous years you would have been right, but the trend is on the reverse now (for the moment anyway). Employment is increasing Link.

Wrong. Full time employment has fallen over the last year http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0530/453581-unemployment-rate-falls-in-first-quarter-cso/

And emigration has helped the unemployment rate. http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2012/popmig_2012.pdf

Net migration of adults has fallen quite a bit.

seamus wrote: »

Funny, not one of the people I know who have or are buying property have once mentioned MIR. I'm not saying it didn't happen, but I don't think it's a big factor.

Yes it was, these boards(especially Accommodation forum and agreed by the IBF) were plastered with help to meet the deadline for MIR. http://www.ibf.ie/gns/media-centre/news/13-05-28/IBF_Housing_Market_Monitor_Points_to_Renewed_Buyer_Confidence.aspx

13-06-2013 04:54PM

Personally I am fine have managed to secure a good wage and do not need for anything, I work in IT. My home town is f**ked, loads of empty shops and pubs. Loads of people I know have left, so in reality I don't see any pick up at all.

Sergeant · 13-06-2013 04:56PM

Things are going to be fine.

MOC88 · 13-06-2013 05:44PM

seamus wrote: »

"It's not getting worse" is probably the most appropriate way of putting it.

Unemployment rates have stabilised and exports are doing very well, along with inward investment. Small businesses are still having major difficulty because they have very little access to credit.

Confidence is definitely returning to people though, in the last 6-12 months I've seen more people changing/acquiring jobs, buying big things like vehicles and houses and overall loosening the purse strings more than they have in the previous four years, combined.

To a certain extent I agree that we got off lightly, but it depends on what your perspective was. The population can generally be separated into two groups of people - those whose career was decimated by the collapse and lost their job or took a massive paycut, and those who were largely unaffected aside from a 5-15% paycut.
This has left us with one group still receiving relatively good wages, and a second group relying solely on benefits or struggling on a tiny wage.
From the former's point of view, we got off lightly. From the latter's, it's been 5 years of hell.

I can tell you for a fact that it's getting a lot worse in Waterford. Even if all the new taxes rates etc. weren't being introduced many people couldn't keep going, the rate of worsening conditions is going to increase I'd imagine

KyussBishop · 13-06-2013 07:34PM

I am pie wrote: »

Some people in Ireland generally lack any kind of perspective as to what a real economic crisis is and actually feels like.

To be honest, overall, I think we got off quite lightly in comparison to Greece and Spain. Sometimes we don't know when we're well off.

Obviously a lot of people have been put through a lot of stress in terms of losing jobs and reducing ps salaries. A large section of the population may be stuck with houses they didn't intend to keep long term, but, really...the reason we haven't been out on the streets is because standards of living have not dramatically collapsed.

Improvement will be gradual and hard to track I would say.

On the contrary, we've had our balls chopped off, compared to how our economy could be, if Europe had not elected the economically illiterate option of austerity.

'It could be worse', when we've been forced to further decimate our economy post-crisis, instead of saving it, isn't a good thing to be optimistic/positive about, it's something to be angry about.

Almost every 'it could be worse' argument, is arguing for a race-to-the-bottom in standards, where we shouldn't complain until our country has been completely destroyed.
There is always somewhere worse, and that is never a valid argument, against complaining about catastrophic economic mismanagement (and I'm talking about mismanagement now, not just pre-crisis), or indeed, against complaining about anything at all.

matTNT · 13-06-2013 07:42PM

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

#pedantbecauseyouare

Hashtags. This is not the place. You automatically forfeit your argument.

carzony · 13-06-2013 07:47PM

I hope were getting better soon, I'm tired of it and wish I was only going into secondary school atleast that'd give me a few years to kill. Unlucky for me I left school in 2010 and the only thing to do was to go on the dole, Back then I had I suppose an attitude ''i'd never work in mcdonalds or aldi'' jesus i'd jump at one of them jobs now

:(

The economy is very bad and when you add up all the students only starting college and the ones leaving, then the ones attending fas and job bridge and then add up the 300,000 that have emigrated the country really looks bad.. If all them had signed on imagine what the figures would look like now :eek::eek::eek:

Cee-Jay-Cee · 13-06-2013 08:01PM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

I saw three, yes three, French campervans drive through my village this morning in convoy, no doubt the people in them were probably French. They didn't stop though, just drove past.

Most likely G8 protesters.

BlatentCheek · 13-06-2013 08:50PM

seamus wrote: »

The population can generally be separated into two groups of people - those whose career was decimated by the collapse and lost their job or took a massive paycut, and those who were largely unaffected aside from a 5-15% paycut.
This has left us with one group still receiving relatively good wages, and a second group relying solely on benefits or struggling on a tiny wage.
From the former's point of view, we got off lightly. From the latter's, it's been 5 years of hell.

This pretty much sums it up. It's like there's a two-speed Ireland and how that's expected to kickstart domestic demand is beyond me. Pretty much all the decision makers are in the largely unaffected group which is why their solutions to the Economic crisis have been so deaf to people's suffering: Think of Enda Kenny saying last year that there are jobs out there but people are unwilling to work them, or indeed people on these forums who are (presumably) doing OK telling people to shut up and stop moaning because they don't have it as bad as the Somalians.

K-9 · 14-06-2013 01:03AM

KyussBishop wrote: »

On the contrary, we've had our balls chopped off, compared to how our economy could be, if Europe had not elected the economically illiterate option of austerity.

'It could be worse', when we've been forced to further decimate our economy post-crisis, instead of saving it, isn't a good thing to be optimistic/positive about, it's something to be angry about.

Almost every 'it could be worse' argument, is arguing for a race-to-the-bottom in standards, where we shouldn't complain until our country has been completely destroyed.
There is always somewhere worse, and that is never a valid argument, against complaining about catastrophic economic mismanagement (and I'm talking about mismanagement now, not just pre-crisis), or indeed, against complaining about anything at all.

Ah, your EU/ECB hobbyhorse makes you miss this has been going on for decades.

Rural Ireland is finished, the Celtic bubble hid it, but even then people went on about it. Rural Ireland was drained of people in the 80's and early 90's, saw a brief respite in the late 90's and early 00's with estates being built everywhere, masking the bleeding of textiles and other manufacturing industries, fishing, farming etc.

Take my county, Donegal Town lost Magee and Abbots, nothing has replaced them, Letterkenny lost Unifi and a couple of others, Buncrana Fruit of the Loom, Killybegs went from a fishing boom town to a ghost town, Burtonport barely exists any more. Letterkenny's biggest employers now are the regional hospital and college, the public service. We get the odd job announcement and success story, but that's about it.

You stand a chance if you live in a city or large town, emigration is your lot in rural Ireland, getting a job in Dublin is being lucky.

I don't think that is all down to austerity, these problems existed in boom/bubble times, they just hid it better.

NuckingFacker · 14-06-2013 07:58AM

gurramok wrote: »

I did see about 20 German bikers on the M50 the other day and they didn't hog the middle lane either! :eek:

Stayed in the fast lane eh?

ducks and runs.

WanabeOlympian · 14-06-2013 11:46AM

I see the platform for people highlighting positives they have seen in the economy has turned into 'let me tell you how bad things are' thread. Feck it anyway haha I know things are bad, i'm asking you what have you see that has been positive recently! aaaaaaaaargh

Get Real · 14-06-2013 05:46PM

carzony wrote: »

I hope were getting better soon, I'm tired of it and wish I was only going into secondary school atleast that'd give me a few years to kill. Unlucky for me I left school in 2010 and the only thing to do was to go on the dole, Back then I had I suppose an attitude ''i'd never work in mcdonalds or aldi'' jesus i'd jump at one of them jobs now :(

The economy is very bad and when you add up all the students only starting college and the ones leaving, then the ones attending fas and job bridge and then add up the 300,000 that have emigrated the country really looks bad.. If all them had signed on imagine what the figures would look like now :eek::eek::eek:

I agree its a shame about the problem with graduates (and all others too) not being able to find jobs, me having recently graduated myself.

I also finished school in 2010 but didnt have a bias against certain jobs, having taken a job in Maccy D's as you mentioned.

Sometimes I wonder- and don't get me wrong, I know people, including me, would generally like to work in their relevant field/trade- but sometimes I wonder if its a case of "I'm a graduate and can't find a job" but what they mean is "I dont want to take anything less than x amount per year/ think too highly of myself to work as a cleaner/ waiter/ mcdonalds/bk/kfc etc" even just for a year or two to gain experience, meet people, and maybe its easier for them to take the dole and blame the system and government, fearing being judged for working at the local chipper who may be hiring. And I think thats a pretty sad attitude to have.

Im more asking then stating it as fact, would anyone agree or?

Edit: Having read over that I don't want to come across as a sap either, I fully acknowledge that for many it is a very dire and s--tty situation, especially for unemployed people with big mortgages etc. I was just wondering is it possible that some people do have the attitude above?

Michael D Not Higgins · 14-06-2013 05:51PM

What I've noticed is that the international media tends to no longer list Ireland when talking about Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc.

KyussBishop · 15-06-2013 06:59AM

K-9 wrote: »

Ah, your EU/ECB hobbyhorse makes you miss this has been going on for decades.

Rural Ireland is finished, the Celtic bubble hid it, but even then people went on about it. Rural Ireland was drained of people in the 80's and early 90's, saw a brief respite in the late 90's and early 00's with estates being built everywhere, masking the bleeding of textiles and other manufacturing industries, fishing, farming etc.

Take my county, Donegal Town lost Magee and Abbots, nothing has replaced them, Letterkenny lost Unifi and a couple of others, Buncrana Fruit of the Loom, Killybegs went from a fishing boom town to a ghost town, Burtonport barely exists any more. Letterkenny's biggest employers now are the regional hospital and college, the public service. We get the odd job announcement and success story, but that's about it.

You stand a chance if you live in a city or large town, emigration is your lot in rural Ireland, getting a job in Dublin is being lucky.

I don't think that is all down to austerity, these problems existed in boom/bubble times, they just hid it better.

I agree with you that there have been big problems with where money has been spent (e.g. housing instead of manufacturing), but that doesn't seem related to what I've said, and austerity has certainly worsened those problems as well.

If we (the EU as a whole) had not undertaken austerity, but instead had driven our economies at 100% capacity (i.e. full employment), and put that capacity into sustainable areas (not housing bubbles or other wastes of effort like you mention), then there is no reason whatsoever, why all of Ireland (including rural Ireland) couldn't be employing people in useful industry/activity, and recovering much faster from the crisis.

The difference between how things are now, and how things could be, if politics was not overtaken by bad economics (causing the few policy options that can end the crisis, to be ruled out), is truly enormous and something to be very angry about.

Instead of being at the end of the current economic crisis (after having weathered it comfortably), we are only coming up to the middle of it, and our current policies mean the damage is compounded every day it continues (when that is totally unnecessary).

People don't seem to understand just how fundamentally wrong a lot of mainstream macroeconomics is, and how macroeconomics which actually fit reality better, is not part of mainstream thinking (and neither are people open to learning about it, more apt to discard it out of hand); people then negatively judge this more realistic macroeconomics, for not matching the completely false mainstream theories, and for not matching their personal political ideologies. There is no concept of judging theory based on how well it fits reality, within most economic discussion, it is mostly ideology.

KyussBishop · 15-06-2013 07:06AM

WanabeOlympian wrote: »

I see the platform for people highlighting positives they have seen in the economy has turned into 'let me tell you how bad things are' thread. Feck it anyway haha I know things are bad, i'm asking you what have you see that has been positive recently! aaaaaaaaargh

If you pretend things are positive, instead of learning about what is wrong about economics and the politics behind it, then you are deliberately blinding yourself to what is wrong; when that kind of thinking is prevalent, it actively prevents positive change, and is harmful.

It is hard to properly read up on and learn what is wrong with economics, but digging your head in the sand is actively harmful; pointing out what is wrong is not all doom and gloom, it should be encouraging people to push for change, once they see that the way things are now is not an inevitability, and can be made far better if knowledge of the problems and necessary reforms was made more prevalent.

Is our Irish economy getting better?

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