Croke Park II preliminary Talks started today

Godge · 24-02-2013 11:26PM

Stheno wrote: »

I finished a long term contract a few years ago, and the job I took after that paid 27% less than the contract I was one, excluding performance based bonuses, no overtime possible. Performance based bonuses are achieved probably 50% of the time across the company as the targets are extremely high.

The company I work in also imposed an across the board 15% paycut for all staff. No-one in the company has had a payrise/increment of any sort in three years.

How many public sector workers have seen a 15% paycut with no increments? Iirc the average with the pension levy etc was about 7.5%. That's repeated in a lot of SMEs that I know of, even those that are doing well, partly doing well as they've imposed those cuts.

If someone cannot afford their mortgage, there is the MARP process, MABS etc. People also need to adjust their standard of living to their circumstances, I and many others in the private sector have also had to do this.

According to the CSO, average private sector earnings have risen over the last three years while average public sector earnings have fallen.

Don't ask me to provide a link, I have done so several times already in this thread.

Gumbo · 24-02-2013 11:27PM

noodler wrote: »

Less of that sort warped logic please.

Why?
We have taken on 42% of the euro zones banking debt.

PS. Please don't call me Jesus Christ, I'm good, but I'm humble enough to state that in not that good. Thanks.

24-02-2013 11:29PM

tayto lover wrote: »

A great deal of the borrowed money went to prop-up the banks which are Private Sector.
That article is a journalists point of view too, i have read opposing views.

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/banking-crisis-bill-ireland-755464-Jan2013/

The banking debt is only 30% of our total debt. The majority of the rest is due to government spending deficits. A deficit which this government has to close. PS cuts are a part of this, i don't understand why you cannot see this.

noodler · 24-02-2013 11:29PM

tayto lover wrote: »

A great deal of the borrowed money went to prop-up the banks which are Private Sector.
That article is a journalists point of view too, i have read opposing views.

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/banking-crisis-bill-ireland-755464-Jan2013/

kceire wrote: »

Why?
We have taken on 42% of the euro zones banking debt.

PS. Please don't call me Jesus Christ, I'm good, but I'm humble enough to state that in not that good. Thanks.

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'm afraid that claim is utter nonsense, based on extremely tortured use of statistics. The Germans have put €290bn into their bailout, multiples of ours, which is hardly surprising.

The 42% claim is from the Unions' economist Michael Taft, and is based on measuring only those parts of bailouts which are classified as 'capital transfers' as opposed to 'financial transactions'. Our bailout isn't the largest in Europe - I honestly don't know how anyone could believe it is - but it contains the largest 'capital transfer' portion, the promissory notes. Taft measured only that bit of the bailouts when "comparing" them.

You really shouldn't just swallow these figures, particularly when they're so clearly unbelievable in the first place. We didn't "bail out Europe" - we couldn't even afford to bail out 6 Irish banks without help.

regards,
Scofflaw

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2013/02/deficit-debt-and-expenditure-impacting.html

In your own time Kceire,

Gumbo · 24-02-2013 11:29PM

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/42-of-europes-banking-crisis-paid-by-ireland-219703.html

Stheno · 24-02-2013 11:30PM

Godge wrote: »

According to the CSO, average private sector earnings have risen over the last three years while average public sector earnings have fallen.

Don't ask me to provide a link, I have done so several times already in this thread.

True, I've read that myself yesterday in the Indo and a survey earlier this year indicated that across the private sector the average payrise was expected to be 0.4%

I work in the SME sector in an area that gets a lot of work from government so my example is skewed based on that, but I also work in IT. Am currently interviewing as I believe my prospects are better if I move.

It was three years plus when I last jobhunted and it was a different environment for IT then, it does seem to have changed for the better since. Just not reflected in my company at all, and in several other SMEs that I am aware of whose primary cost is people.

noodler · 24-02-2013 11:32PM

Godge wrote: »

According to the CSO, average private sector earnings have risen over the last three years while average public sector earnings have fallen.

Don't ask me to provide a link, I have done so several times already in this thread.

Again Godge?

You are quite partial to using those figures when it suits you.

Don't those figures also say average PS pay is 50% higher than in the Private Sector?

Scofflaw · 24-02-2013 11:32PM

tayto lover wrote: »

A great deal of the borrowed money went to prop-up the banks which are Private Sector.
That article is a journalists point of view too, i have read opposing views.

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/banking-crisis-bill-ireland-755464-Jan2013/

And none of the borrowed money went to the banks. The banks were bailed out with exchequer cash, NPRF funds, and the promissory notes. For some reason none of the IMF/EU/EFSF money was put into them, possibly to avoid any claim on them, possibly to avoid further external investigation of them.

regards,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw · 24-02-2013 11:34PM

kceire wrote: »

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/42-of-europes-banking-crisis-paid-by-ireland-219703.html

That's simply a journalist quoting Taft without bothering to find out that his figures are drivel. People repeating other people's falsehoods doesn't make them true.

regards,
Scofflaw

noodler · 24-02-2013 11:34PM

kceire wrote: »

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/42-of-europes-banking-crisis-paid-by-ireland-219703.html

Thats a journalist summarising Taft's blog article.

I have given you an academic economist explaining the folly of Taft's blogpost in easy-to-understand detail.

It is up to you to educate yourself.

tayto lover · 24-02-2013 11:38PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

And none of the borrowed money went to the banks. The banks were bailed out with exchequer cash, NPRF funds, and the promissory notes. For some reason none of the IMF/EU/EFSF money was put into them, possibly to avoid any claim on them, possibly to avoid further external investigation of them.

regards,
Scofflaw

Where did the Pension Reserve go to then only into the Banks too.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/pension-reserve-funds-to-be-spent-on-banks-137796.html

Sorry you said that.

noodler · 24-02-2013 11:43PM

Don't get me wrong Kceire, the amount we have put into the banks on a proportionate basis is still absolutely massive.

But

1) It is not the largest in an absolute sense, the British spent more on their banks than we did in absolute terms but we never hear about that for example

2) We guaranteed the banks without consulting Europe. It is almost certain (if not 100% proven) than Lenihan was forced to make sure that unguaranteed bondholders didn't lose out by the ECB in late 2010 but at that stage we had already committed a fortune to the banks and it would be a little disingenous to say that our whole guarantee policy had been dictated by the ECB from the start.

Godge · 24-02-2013 11:52PM

noodler wrote: »

Again Godge?

You are quite partial to using those figures when it suits you.

Don't those figures also say average PS pay is 50% higher than in the Private Sector?

Two different arguments.

If the public sector is full of medical doctors and the private sector full of general labourers, then the 50% is easily explainable and that type of discussion around the composition of the workforce is what is needed.

What is happening with general trends in pay is the discussion we are having.

noodler · 24-02-2013 11:54PM

Godge wrote: »

Two different arguments.

If the public sector is full of medical doctors and the private sector full of general labourers, then the 50% is easily explainable and that type of discussion around the composition of the workforce is what is needed.

What is happening with general trends in pay is the discussion we are having.

2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Private sector 642.54 636.61 624.10 644.20 631.82 618.08 609.38 631.03 612.46 614.87 604.22 629.07 610.56 614.67 608.29 621.86 623.89 616.93 615.45 623.43
Public sector 904.80 930.51 930.14 956.71 934.00 946.09 963.76 964.74 895.43 907.84 940.35 917.06 893.82 893.70 916.83 919.05 917.46 916.95 925.75 921.99

Ok, we are talking about averages here and it is a blunt instrument so lets leave out the whole 50% average gap for a moment.

From the above table, we can see that PS pay is higher than it was during the peak. Private sector pay is lower.

This is despite the fact there has been a collapse in Private sector jobs.

Godge · 24-02-2013 11:56PM

noodler wrote: »

2008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q32009Q42010Q12010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q4Public sector904.80930.51930.14956.71934.00946.09963.76964.74895.43907.84940.35917.06893.82893.70916.83919.05917.46916.95925.75921.99

???????

Scofflaw · 25-02-2013 12:04AM

tayto lover wrote: »

Where did the Pension Reserve go to then only into the Banks too.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/pension-reserve-funds-to-be-spent-on-banks-137796.html

Sorry you said that.

Sure - I don't know why exactly it was done that way, with no external money going directly into the banks, but it was done that way, as per the linked breakdown given by Noonan:

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2012/07/17/00085.asp

It's all NPRF, Exchequer cash, and the promissory notes. The EU bailout provided money specifically earmarked for the bank recaps, but it wasn't used that way, for reasons that, as far as I know, have never been stated anywhere.

I'm afraid the whole "we bailed out Europe" thing is a myth, while the "we paid 42% of Europe's bailout" claim is very much just a misuse of statistics. Funnily enough, given the source was the Unions' economist Taft, I imagine the whole point of torturing the statistics to produce "42%" was precisely to have it used in discussions like this, as a way of saying "look over there! At the banks! Don't look at the deficit!".

Since people should check that I too am not simply blowing smoke, the original Eurostat data the claim is based on is here: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/government_finance_statistics/documents/Summary_table_for_the_financial_crisis-Oct.2012.xlsx

As you can see, our bank bailout is actually only about 7% of the eurozone's total. That is, to be fair, out of proportion to our size, but perhaps not out of proportion to the size of our banks and the degree of their stupidity.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Godge · 25-02-2013 12:22AM

noodler wrote: »

2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
Private sector 642.54 636.61 624.10 644.20 631.82 618.08 609.38 631.03 612.46 614.87 604.22 629.07 610.56 614.67 608.29 621.86 623.89 616.93 615.45 623.43
Public sector 904.80 930.51 930.14 956.71 934.00 946.09 963.76 964.74 895.43 907.84 940.35 917.06 893.82 893.70 916.83 919.05 917.46 916.95 925.75 921.99

Ok, we are talking about averages here and it is a blunt instrument so lets leave out the whole 50% average gap for a moment.

From the above table, we can see that PS pay is higher than it was during the peak. Private sector pay is lower.

This is despite the fact there has been a collapse in Private sector jobs.

And how are you deciding when the peak was? What criteria are you using?

As for the jobs issue, listen to Richard Bruton on the Week in Politics tonight, referencing the private sector jobs being created, hiding the fact that the public sector decreased over the last year.

Gumbo · 25-02-2013 12:41AM

Godge wrote: »

And how are you deciding when the peak was? What criteria are you using?

As for the jobs issue, listen to Richard Bruton on the Week in Politics tonight, referencing the private sector jobs being created, hiding the fact that the public sector decreased over the last year.

Public sector, including semi state declined by 2.3% over the last year according to the CSO (381,800 in total).

The reduction in numbers in the public sector over the four years from 2008 to 2012 now stands at 45,500, or 10.6%.

jank · 25-02-2013 03:03AM

Strike on I say to the Unions. The look on jack o Connors face when he realises that he is the emperor with no clothes would be priceless.

doc_17 · 25-02-2013 08:01AM

Looks like there'll be no strikes from the majority now. Wonder how they'll handle the unions who pulled out?

whiteandlight · 25-02-2013 08:08AM

I really wasn't expecting this this morning after four unions walking out. Its still going to be a terribly hard sell for the unions to get any of the suggestions mentioned past their members

sean200 · 25-02-2013 09:32AM

Musicmental85 wrote: »

I really wasn't expecting this this morning after four unions walking out. Its still going to be a terribly hard sell for the unions to get any of the suggestions mentioned past their members

SIPTU and Impact will get it over the line but then you have the problem of who is in and who is out
Take nurses for example SIPTU represent some and the IMNO the rest so how do you solve that.
If what I am hearing is correct this is going to be a lot softer of a hit that what was being reported by the media but then we are well used to this government using spin to progress things

gazzer · 25-02-2013 10:04AM

sean200 wrote: »

SIPTU and Impact will get it over the line but then you have the problem of who is in and who is out
Take nurses for example SIPTU represent some and the IMNO the rest so how do you solve that.
If what I am hearing is correct this is going to be a lot softer of a hit that what was being reported by the media but then we are well used to this government using spin to progress things

I will suck up a pay cut or having to work longer hours but the proposed increase to the redeployment radius of 45km to 80 is a big no no for me.

The money I would have to pay in extra petrol if I get transferred 80 km away from where I currently work would be like another pay cut.

Rightwing · 25-02-2013 10:39AM

gazzer wrote: »

I will suck up a pay cut or having to work longer hours but the proposed increase to the redeployment radius of 45km to 80 is a big no no for me.

The money I would have to pay in extra petrol if I get transferred 80 km away from where I currently work would be like another pay cut.

Yes, that's a bit much.

Anyway, good news all round if they get the deal through.

kippy · 25-02-2013 11:02AM

Rightwing wrote: »

Yes, that's a bit much.

Anyway, good news all round if they get the deal through.

Good news for who?

Rightwing · 25-02-2013 11:07AM

kippy wrote: »

Good news for who?

Well I think it's good news for the country as a whole. I can't see what good strikes etc will do for anyone.

kippy · 25-02-2013 11:10AM

Rightwing wrote: »

Well I think it's good news for the country as a whole. I can't see what good strikes etc will do for anyone.

It's not good for the few hundred thousand that these cuts will impact and the few hundred thousand more, directly related to these people that they will have an indirect effect on.

The strikes are a separate matter and they aren't good for anyone however they will happen by the looks of it and will impact on the life of almost every citizen.

I'll wait to see what the details of the cp2 are before commenting more.

Rightwing · 25-02-2013 11:15AM

kippy wrote: »

It's not good for the few hundred thousand that these cuts will impact and the few hundred thousand more, directly related to these people that they will have an indirect effect on.

The strikes are a separate matter and they aren't good for anyone however they will happen by the looks of it and will impact on the life of almost every citizen.

I'll wait to see what the details of the cp2 are before commenting more.

Of course it's not nice to see people getting cuts. But I think these cuts have to happen with or without an agreement. That's why I'd prefer an agreement reached. I hope the agreement reached is fair, and hits the people on the lower scales the least.

Riskymove · 25-02-2013 11:18AM

Rightwing wrote: »

Of course it's not nice to see people getting cuts. But I think these cuts have to happen with or without an agreement. That's why I'd prefer an agreement reached. I hope the agreement reached is fair, and hits the people on the lower scales the least.

I think Kippy's point is one made before on the forum.

A cut in pay for such a large number of people will have a serious impact on the wider economy and will likely result in further private sector job losses.

If people are paid less, they spend less and the economy suffers.

Rightwing · 25-02-2013 11:22AM

Riskymove wrote: »

I think Kippy's point is one made before on the forum.

A cut in pay for such a large number of people will have a serious impact on the wider economy and will likely result in further private sector job losses.

If people are paid less, they spend less and the economy suffers.

Yes, there's no doubt about that. It's essentially the opposite of the 'multiplier effect', and austerity has worsened the recessions in Europe. I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that. Things have to get worse, before they get better.

I don't see anything too harsh in this:

Union sources revealed the arrangements include a freeze in salary increments for those earning over 65,000 euro, a cut in overtime for Sunday shifts from double time to time and three quarters, and graduated pay cuts between 5-10% for people earning over 65,000 euro.

Croke Park II preliminary Talks started today

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