General Fantasy Football Chat 2012/2013

Swiper the fox wrote: »

Berbatov is still listed as injured on FPL but Martin Jol has indicated that he will certainly play on saturday, just a heads up to those of you who are going to make the mistake;) of transferring him out. Still the best value striker in the game IMO.

I'm possibly the most devoted Berbaphile of all time but I got him out in my wildcard because he just isn't getting enough support from the rest of his team. The upcoming fixtures aren't exactly endearing to picking him either i.e over the course of the next 2 months. But then again that's when he could shine

If they get their act together and give the Berb the supply he might regain his place from Giroud who I'm hoping picks up a few goals against Villa especially.

Defoe out for 3 weeks & Ade missing in action,could mean a more advanced/striking role for Bale or Dempsey.

El Horseboxo wrote: »

I've no figures to back it up as I came to this conclusion based on observation over the years without considering fantasy football. Maybe numbers could prove me wrong.

I've had a very quick look at last years figures/stats and as expected I don't see anything to support what I think people are suggesting.

Being a mid table team entering the final 3rd of the season or having won a cup guaranteeing european football the following season => a collective lack of effort from a team => a poorer performance from the team => poorer individual performances for players => less fantasy football points

and

Having something to play for => a collective improvement of effort from a team => a better performance from the team => better individual performances for players => greater fantasy football points

The evidence people are providing seemed anecdotal to me and I think it's a flawed way of approaching transfers this time of year. It would be just as easy to provide anecdotal evidence to counter the argument.

Roonbox wrote: »

Probably a stupid question but is there a way of getting league positions from previous years? I cant seem to locate it and a buddy needs a little reminding that I beat him...

Don't think you can look back at private leagues, but you can get your overall position and points by going to view game week history on the right hand side. Should be at the bottom

who to start
Begovic home to reading
or
Bunn home to fulham

Kill Ach wrote: »

who to start
Begovic home to reading
or
Bunn home to fulham

If you believe that another team can have a bogey team then apparently Fulham are Norwich's:

http://www.sportingintelligence.com/2013/02/08/manchester-united-the-undisputed-kings-of-premier-league-away-days-080201/

It's at the bottom of the article. I face the same dilemma and Reading are fighting for their lives so I really don't know if I can trust Stoke to keep them out. It's a tough one but if I don't go with Begovic this week he surely has no place in my team any longer.

S.M.B. wrote: »

I've had a very quick look at last years figures/stats and as expected I don't see anything to support what I think people are suggesting.

Being a mid table team entering the final 3rd of the season or having won a cup guaranteeing european football the following season => a collective lack of effort from a team => a poorer performance from the team => poorer individual performances for players => less fantasy football points

and

Having something to play for => a collective improvement of effort from a team => a better performance from the team => better individual performances for players => greater fantasy football points

The evidence people are providing seemed anecdotal to me and I think it's a flawed way of approaching transfers this time of year. It would be just as easy to provide anecdotal evidence to counter the argument.

I had a glance on some historic statistical EPL sites there for form guides of previous seasons. I checked 5 seasons and losses and draws are by far the most common results among mid table teams. Compare this with the previous 10 and the most common results are wins and draws. That's just a quick look and i'm not looking at scorelines. But from watching teams over the years it seems to support my opinion that the output from some teams with nothing to play for dips. I'd love to use some data mining techniques on it but it's only a game and i prefer the human rather than machine learning observations for that. I'm not saying i'll have a wholesale clearout. But it makes me question the inclusion of some players.

manual_man wrote: »

there's definitely something to be said for it, it's human nature that teams won't be as motivated when there's nothing left to play for. Alot of players have gotten rid of Stoke defensive cover altogether, and it's more than likely they're safe and have nothing really to play for, but from gw28 i'll be doubling up (Wilson, alongside Bego), Stoke have a very nice run of home games, many against fellow 'safe' mid table teams, i'm hoping that will be some kind of a positive differential for me

Having looked through some of the results 0-0 seems to be a popular result from mid table placed teams towards the end of the season. So maybe it's just the attacking output that goes downhill. Draws are a common result.

tevez away to southampton

or

sterling (swansea and wigan)

cant decide who to play/bench

Right I've got
Baines Raf Davies O'Brien Dawson
Mata Walcott Maloney Michu Taarabt
RVP Fletch Giroud

Looking for a Liv player for the DGW, 2 ft's and 0.6 left.
Also didn't include gk's because won't be changing them

manual_man wrote: »

there's definitely something to be said for it, it's human nature that teams won't be as motivated when there's nothing left to play for. Alot of players have gotten rid of Stoke defensive cover altogether, and it's more than likely they're safe and have nothing really to play for, but from gw28 i'll be doubling up (Wilson, alongside Bego), Stoke have a very nice run of home games, many against fellow 'safe' mid table teams, i'm hoping that will be some kind of a positive differential for me

So to take advantage of the mid table slump phenomenon you're going to further invest yourself in a mid table side?

I think it's because the slump involves scoring goals rather than conceding, as someone pointed out the chance of 0-0 draws becomes more likely.

I wouldn't be going near Stoke defenders for a while though, although Marc Wilson could be a worth replacement for Demel, and will cost just £3.9m after tonight. Not sure if/when he'll get back in the team though.

S.M.B. wrote: »

Oh I know, and I can't argue with your plan.

My point is that your reasons appear to be more "Stoke are a good team at home and have a nice run of fixtures against average to below average sides".

well you can put it different ways. i was basically acknowledging that having nothing to play for can have 'somewhat' of an effect on performance, but it's not everything, and as we've agreed Stoke are good at home, and have some nice fixtures... it'll be a risk on my part for sure, but it wasn't all that long ago that people were doubling, and even tripling, up on Stoke defenders

manual_man wrote: »

well you can put it different ways. i was basically acknowledging that having nothing to play for can have 'somewhat' of an effect on performance, but it's not everything, and as we've agreed Stoke are good at home, and have some nice fixtures... it'll be a risk on my part for sure, but it wasn't all that long ago that people were doubling, and even tripling, up on Stoke defenders

The only thing preventing me from a Stoke double up would be QPRs favourable fixtures during the same time period and their new form defensive form.

How about a QPR/Stoke double-double up? Now that's a risk!