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Farming Chit Chat

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  • #8552
    bob charles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,343 ✭✭✭bob charles


    darragh_haven wrote: »
    Does anyone really foresee a milk price slump? I can't see it in the immediate future, but maybe......

    did you foresee whats happened in beef? it takes very little to upset the apple cart, I doubt there will be a price fall but with inputs rising on an hourly basis surely you would need a couple of more cents per ltr over last year just to stand still


  • #8553
    Tipp Man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,025 ✭✭✭Tipp Man


    darragh_haven wrote: »
    Does anyone really foresee a milk price slump? I can't see it in the immediate future, but maybe......

    You would have to imagine that milk prices will hold firm for most of 2013

    They are starting from a decent position and the demand seems to be firm


  • #8554
    stanflt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,797 ✭✭✭stanflt


    bob charles wrote: »
    not even if there was a milk price slump?


    if the price drops you have to produce more to make the same income

    if price drops and you decrease output you will double your debt potential-learned this in first economics class


  • #8555
    freedominacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    bob charles wrote: »
    did you foresee whats happened in beef? it takes very little to upset the apple cart, I doubt there will be a price fall but with inputs rising on an hourly basis surely you would need a couple of more cents per ltr over last year just to stand still

    Guy quoted on indo today basically stating the bloody obvious. Milk price going forward will depend on U.S. feedlot output and they are totally sensitive to feed prices. Once the figures go against them they cull wholesale and simply take-out their own ability to supply. They do this because they generally have cull rates approaching 50% annually so the cows that are taken out now can and will be replaced from within the system fairly quickly. nothing we do here is going to make much difference to prices.


  • #8556
    Tipp Man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,025 ✭✭✭Tipp Man


    stanflt wrote: »
    if the price drops you have to produce more to make the same income

    if price drops and you decrease output you will double your debt potential-learned this in first economics class

    Thats not strictly true though

    1) if you increase supply then you increase the amount of the oversupply which further depresses the market price and/or extends the length of time it takes for the price to recover (on a world market the individual obviously isn't producing enough to make a difference but if everybody operated like this then ...)

    2) It depends on your cost structure and the relationship between fixed and variable costs. If you have say 10 cent fixed and 10 cent variable then if milk price falls to say 18c producing extra milk increases your losses. but if your fixed costs are say 19c with 1 cent variable then selling milk at 18c reduces your losses


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  • #8557
    td5man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,082 ✭✭✭td5man


    stanflt wrote: »


    if the price drops you have to produce more to make the same income

    if price drops and you decrease output you will double your debt potential-learned this in first economics class
    Learned this in real life thanks to tb.


  • #8558
    stanflt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,797 ✭✭✭stanflt


    Tipp Man wrote: »
    Thats not strictly true though

    1) if you increase supply then you increase the amount of the oversupply which further depresses the market price and/or extends the length of time it takes for the price to recover (on a world market the individual obviously isn't producing enough to make a difference but if everybody operated like this then ...)

    2) It depends on your cost structure and the relationship between fixed and variable costs. If you have say 10 cent fixed and 10 cent variable then if milk price falls to say 18c producing extra milk increases your losses. but if your fixed costs are say 19c with 1 cent variable then selling milk at 18c reduces your losses

    who in there right mind would be suppling milk at a loss?


  • #8559
    Tipp Man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,025 ✭✭✭Tipp Man


    stanflt wrote: »
    who in there right mind would be suppling milk at a loss?

    Plenty of fellas supplied milk in 2009 at a loss


  • #8560
    johnpawl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 595 ✭✭✭johnpawl


    leg wax wrote: »
    i will breed from all 3 of them ,:D, cant wait to see what comes off the bull ,i should have 20 or so parts this spring and i am thinking of going all part if i am happy with them.

    Did you put parth back on the 3 parth heifers?


  • #8561
    bob charles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,343 ✭✭✭bob charles


    stanflt wrote: »
    if the price drops you have to produce more to make the same income

    if price drops and you decrease output you will double your debt potential-learned this in first economics class

    May I ask what the break even price for most guys supplying milk. I didnt think there was such a big margin between break even and current price.

    biggest danger if price drops doing the above the cost of your system can rocket as getting more out of each unit of production will require much more inputs driving up your break even price.


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  • #8562
    stanflt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,797 ✭✭✭stanflt


    bob charles wrote: »
    May I ask what the break even price for most guys supplying milk. I didnt think there was such a big margin between break even and current price.

    biggest danger if price drops doing the above the cost of your system can rocket as getting more out of each unit of production will require much more inputs driving up your break even price.

    around 20c litre


  • #8563
    bob charles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,343 ✭✭✭bob charles


    stanflt wrote: »
    around 20c litre

    Ah right, your principle would be right so if milk went down to around 25 - 24ish but after that one would become a busy fool. You boyos milking must be making serious wedge at 10c net profit per ltr


  • #8564
    Juniorhurler
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Juniorhurler


    bob charles wrote: »
    Ah right, your principle would be right so if milk went down to around 25 - 24ish but after that one would become a busy fool. You boyos milking must be making serious wedge at 10c net profit per ltr

    I would say (and I have never been in milk production) that there is a good living in it but no fortune. It is a seriously labour intensive business and from a different business (now gone) I know that nothing eats money quicker than hired labour.

    I have a good off farm job and a suckler herd which is low margin. U would probably have the grazing platform around the yard for 70 - 80 cows and a silage base on an out farm. I still wouldn't dream of swapping despite sucklers being so low margin. The dairy farmer deserves his wedge. I had 6 cows valve over a day and a half last week. The amount of time this took with getting calves up and running was huge, without having to milk twice a day.


  • #8565
    bob charles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,343 ✭✭✭bob charles


    Juniorhurler wrote: »
    I would say (and I have never been in milk production) that there is a good living in it but no fortune. It is a seriously labour intensive business and from a different business (now gone) I know that nothing eats money quicker than hired labour.

    I have a good off farm job and a suckler herd which is low margin. U would probably have the grazing platform around the yard for 70 - 80 cows and a silage base on an out farm. I still wouldn't dream of swapping despite sucklers being so low margin. The dairy farmer deserves his wedge. I had 6 cows valve over a day and a half last week. The amount of time this took with getting calves up and running was huge, without having to milk twice a day.

    Was the 20c per ltr not after paying for labour, either self or hired :eek:


  • #8566
    Juniorhurler
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Juniorhurler


    bob charles wrote: »
    Was the 20c per ltr not after paying for labour, either self or hired :eek:

    Possibly even probably. I do get that on a large scale there probably is money in it. It is also a steady income from farming which is rare. The other systems are a one payday a year job in the main. I still don't think that dairying would be for everyone. I also don't think that finishing cattle, I.e living on your wits around a sales ring would be for eveyone either. I suppose what I am saying in a long winded way deus each to their own and that I like the security of my off farm income with the bonus of any few pound from farming as an extra.


  • #8567
    just do it
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,422 ✭✭✭just do it


    reilig wrote: »
    This straw feeding of incalf cows is working out well. No problems calving and calves appear to be pretty hardy. I have only one complaint - the cows on the straw aren't making a big bag of milk before they calve and its very hard to judge them - especially the pedigrees who don't normally make a big bag of milk anyway.
    Agree with you on this count. I've some good milkers calved and I don't think they're producing as much as I'd expect. Straight onto 2kg dairy nuts and ad-lib good quality silage post calving though so that should get them going... hopefully. Out of interest, how much straw are you giving them? Mixed with silage?
    freedominacup wrote: »
    If you're sure of your dates you could put a group of springers a week to 10 days from calving together and give them a shake of meal. It'll help keep their energy/blood sugars up for calving and might bring in the milk a bit better. They'd only want to be in the last 10 days before claving or you'll start undoing your good work with the straw diet.
    I may just give this a go, one of the advantages of AI is knowing their due date.


  • #8568
    delaval
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭delaval


    Do any of you have a view as to wheather there will be a super levy in April 2014. Just asking considering the saturation of land and the bad feed leading to under fed cows? Personally once we get calving this year and have a half decent price guys will become more positive. I also hear that meal bills are massive and credit terms are needing to be extended. What ye think


  • #8569
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,396 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    I think just like 2010 was a good year, and everyone forgot 2009 moving on into 2011 which rocketed over, same thing will happen in 2014! With it being soo close to the end of quotas, and the country awash with cows alot of people will probably struggle to stay under. Of course this is assuming that no other big event happens, like the wet last summer, or a world crash in milk prices etc.


  • #8570
    keep going
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,551 ✭✭✭keep going


    bob charles wrote: »
    Ah right, your principle would be right so if milk went down to around 25 - 24ish but after that one would become a busy fool. You boyos milking must be making serious wedge at 10c net profit per ltr

    so bob will you give up tearing around the country assembling cattle for larry goodman or who ever to rip you off(if they havent done so already they soon will) and buy a nice little herd of cows and take it easy and make a nice handy living;)


  • #8571
    delaval
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭delaval


    keep going wrote: »
    so bob will give up tearing around the country assembling cattle for larry goodman or who ever to rip you off(if they havent done so already they soon will) and buy a nice little herd of cows and take it easy and make a nice handy living;)
    Jesus no he'd have to sell the diet feeder:)


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  • #8572
    keep going
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,551 ✭✭✭keep going


    Timmaay wrote: »
    I think just like 2010 was a good year, and everyone forgot 2009 moving on into 2011 which rocketed over, same thing will happen in 2014! With it being soo close to the end of quotas, and the country awash with cows alot of people will probably struggle to stay under. Of course this is assuming that no other big event happens, like the wet last summer, or a world crash in milk prices etc.

    yeah there is alot of cows in yards around west cork this year including our selves so unless dry cows are making good money which tempt lads to move messy cows they will prob stick around.last couple of years alot of cows went to kerry but dont see that happening this year.the couple of ai fr heifer calves werent making silly money in the journal last week-400 and 405


  • #8573
    freedominacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    delaval wrote: »
    Jesus no he'd have to sell the diet feeder:)

    Why?
    I've never given concentrate to milking cows any other way:confused:


  • #8574
    whelan1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,786 ✭✭✭✭whelan1


    had a guy ring me last night looking for biestings, i keep some in the freezer, he said he had a heifer calved yesterday morning and the calf hadnt drank yet, he said he would get the biestings this morning, so calf wont have had a drink for a full 24 hours after it was born:eek::eek: not a great start for it


  • #8575
    Manoffeeling
    Closed Accounts Posts: 931 ✭✭✭Manoffeeling


    whelan1 wrote: »
    had a guy ring me last night looking for biestings, i keep some in the freezer, he said he had a heifer calved yesterday morning and the calf hadnt drank yet, he said he would get the biestings this morning, so calf wont have had a drink for a full 24 hours after it was born:eek::eek: not a great start for it

    He is probably an expert on everything :eek:


  • #8576
    reilig
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,401 ✭✭✭reilig


    just do it wrote: »
    Out of interest, how much straw are you giving them? Mixed with silage?

    They're getting a bale of straw for every 3 bales of silage. So 25%. When they calve, they go onto good silage and they get a bit of fodder stretcher meal.


  • #8577
    whelan1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,786 ✭✭✭✭whelan1


    reilig wrote: »
    They're getting a bale of straw for every 3 bales of silage. So 25%. When they calve, they go onto good silage and they get a bit of fodder stretcher meal.
    our vet always says they should be on a rising plane of nutrtion for a week before calving, we give them the dairy mix - silage, straw and meal-


  • #8578
    reilig
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,401 ✭✭✭reilig


    whelan1 wrote: »
    had a guy ring me last night looking for biestings, i keep some in the freezer, he said he had a heifer calved yesterday morning and the calf hadnt drank yet, he said he would get the biestings this morning, so calf wont have had a drink for a full 24 hours after it was born:eek::eek: not a great start for it

    He'll be dead this morning so. Remember as a young lad of 8 or 10, my parents were gone to a wedding and we had a heifer calved out in the field. Calf was up and sucking after 20 minutes. But about 12 hours later he was down. Put the heifer into a crush to see what the milk was like and it turned out that she had none at all. Calf died. Expensive lesson for a young lad, but a valuable one too. Always get the beastings into the calf asap.

    Marty lenehan who has the "Better Farm" in sligo told us on his farm walk that he stomach tubes a pint of beastings into every calf that is born on his farm within 20 minutes of them hitting the ground regardless of how strong the calf is. Then he leaves it to mother nature - he said that he rarely has to ush a calf up to suck after that.


  • #8579
    reilig
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,401 ✭✭✭reilig


    whelan1 wrote: »
    our vet always says they should be on a rising plane of nutrtion for a week before calving, we give them the dairy mix - silage, straw and meal-

    Its something that I'll have to work on. She actually calved early. Limousins normally bring 3 weeks with them. This one only brough a day.


  • #8580
    whelan1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,786 ✭✭✭✭whelan1


    reilig wrote: »
    He'll be dead this morning so. Remember as a young lad of 8 or 10, my parents were gone to a wedding and we had a heifer calved out in the field. Calf was up and sucking after 20 minutes. But about 12 hours later he was down. Put the heifer into a crush to see what the milk was like and it turned out that she had none at all. Calf died. Expensive lesson for a young lad, but a valuable one too. Always get the beastings into the calf asap.

    Marty lenehan who has the "Better Farm" in sligo told us on his farm walk that he stomach tubes a pint of beastings into every calf that is born on his farm within 20 minutes of them hitting the ground regardless of how strong the calf is. Then he leaves it to mother nature - he said that he rarely has to ush a calf up to suck after that.
    he just collected the biestings now, wouldnt have killed him to give it to the calf last night


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  • #8581
    hugo29
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,267 ✭✭✭hugo29


    reilig wrote: »
    He'll be dead this morning so. Remember as a young lad of 8 or 10, my parents were gone to a wedding and we had a heifer calved out in the field. Calf was up and sucking after 20 minutes. But about 12 hours later he was down. Put the heifer into a crush to see what the milk was like and it turned out that she had none at all. Calf died. Expensive lesson for a young lad, but a valuable one too. Always get the beastings into the calf asap.

    Marty lenehan who has the "Better Farm" in sligo told us on his farm walk that he stomach tubes a pint of beastings into every calf that is born on his farm within 20 minutes of them hitting the ground regardless of how strong the calf is. Then he leaves it to mother nature - he said that he rarely has to ush a calf up to suck after that.
    thats good if you know how to tube em, never really learned that art, is it a difficult procedure, id be afraid to do it , prob see the tube coming out the calves ass:D, suppose it would be time to stop then,


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