My Portfolio

neil.p.b · 29-06-2012 12:44AM

1.35 on the cards for GKP. Should be the reversal point.

turbobaby · 30-06-2012 08:58AM

Quick comments as the week has ended.

HRT: Continued volatility as we are still waiting for teo overdue drill results.

CHAR: Showing good strength as the spud date nears. Two more weeks and we should be ready to go.

Silver: A nice day yesterday but still down on the next resistence level at $29

CMC: Took a big drop to 10c on v little volume but recovered to 13c. No word on the permit yet.

HER: Slide continues!

MBG: Despite good drill results and a pop it continues to be sold off but seems as tho there's support forming at 8c

turbobaby · 02-07-2012 09:00PM

Just wondering if there's actually anybody else on here with exposure to offshore Namibia? I am starting to get very excited about Chariot's (Petrobras') drill.

Chariot has seen a nice steady 24% rise in the last week!

collymcd · 04-07-2012 10:24PM

turbobaby wrote: »

Just wondering if there's actually anybody else on here with exposure to offshore Namibia? I am starting to get very excited about Chariot's (Petrobras') drill.

Chariot has seen a nice steady 24% rise in the last week!

When are Char's drill results due Turbo?

turbobaby · 04-07-2012 10:43PM

The well is due to spud in the next 10 days or so. Then the drilling and testing is scheduled to take 30 to 60 days depending on whether they hit hydrocarbons or not. We should know by late August / early Sept.

Herencia Resources had a private placement today at 0.80p. Robbery. The management and major shareholders can really f*** private investors over.

turbobaby · 07-07-2012 11:59AM

So it seems like I am the only poster here who has exposure to Namibian exploration. I am very surprised to hear this given the number of oil exploration fans here!

Comments on iii suggest that Chariot's rig is still in Tanzania and may not be ready for spud until the last week of July. I may have to wait until the end of September to find out the results of that mega drill.

Still no word from HRT about their two drills in the Amazon which are long overdue at this stage. Judging by the price spike on high volume right at the close on Friday, we may hear something positive on Monday. Positive meaning up to 1000 barrels of condensate per day from one drill and a further gas discovery in the other.

I was in contact yesterday with a fellow investor (Brazilian) who has spoken to the CEO on a number of occassions. In line with what I posted above, he confirmed to me that the CEO said he has 99% of his net worth in HRT shares. The CEO said his family own a whopping 22m shares in total, almost 10% of the company.

I find this astonishing, that such a wealthy man is willing to risk so much on the success of HRT.

My current exposure to HRT is 44%, and a further 16% on Chariot.

I think it was Thargor who mentioned that the drill operator for USOP was asked to be paid in shares, which was a telling sign for the drill result. I say the same here.

If Chariot succeed in finding oil I will likely reduce my exposure, especially considering the massive bargains to be found right now.

lawnmower_man · 07-07-2012 12:02PM

turbobaby wrote: »

So it seems like I am the only poster here who has exposure to Namibian exploration. I am very surprised to hear this given the number of oil exploration fans here!

Comments on iii suggest that Chariot's rig is still in Tanzania and may not be ready for spud until the last week of July. I may have to wait until the end of September to find out the results of that mega drill.

Still no word from HRT about their two drills in the Amazon which are long overdue at this stage. Judging by the price spike on high volume right at the close on Friday, we may hear something positive on Monday. Positive meaning up to 1000 barrels of condensate per day from one drill and a further gas discovery in the other.

I was in contact yesterday with a fellow investor (Brazilian) who has spoken to the CEO on a number of occassions. In line with what I posted above, he confirmed to me that the CEO said he has 99% of his net worth in HRT shares. The CEO said his family own a whopping 22m shares in total, almost 10% of the company.

I find this astonishing, that such a wealthy man is willing to risk so much on the success of HRT.

My current exposure to HRT is 44%, and a further 16% on Chariot.

I think it was Thargor who mentioned that the drill operator for USOP was asked to be paid in shares, which was a telling sign for the drill result. I say the same here.

If Chariot succeed in finding oil I will likely reduce my exposure, especially considering the massive bargains to be found right now.

if high risk bets are your thing , would you consider trading soft commodities , i made $5000 in less than ten days trading corn futures , i got out yesterday as i didnt want to tempt fate but the liklihood is for further rises due to severe drought in the american corn belt , soybeans and sugar are another rising commodity

turbobaby · 07-07-2012 08:20PM

Sounds interesting, but I lack the skill and discipline to trade. I prefer holding shares long term. Currently, exploration companies but as my portfolio grows, physical precious metal and the miners, as well as non US dividend paying stocks.

As I have come back from holidays and have some time, I have decided to post a breakdown of my returns (i.e. losses!) in terms of what I consider to be real money: gold and silver:

3/2/2012 Starting capial: €50,000
Price of gold per oz: €1325
Price of silver per oz: €25.70
Capital in gold oz: 37.74oz
Capital in silver oz: 1946oz

7/7/2012 balance €32,700
Price of gold per oz: €1288
Price of silver per oz: €22.03
Balance in gold oz: 25.39oz
Balance in silver oz: 1484oz

Performance in Euro: -34.58%
Performance in Gold: -32.72%
Performance in Silver: -23.74%

After five months my portfolio has performed best in terms of silver, but still very poorly. However, as the Brazilian and Namibian drill results come in I expect this to radically change and will post updates every few months. Although I already have some exposure to PMs I am hoping the prices remain depressed until I have more money to make purchases.

grange mac · 09-07-2012 09:46AM

Hello Turbobaby,

Do you have any oil companies, like BP etc? I know you have the exploration stocks but I think oil companies are artifically depressed at the moment.
I am no expert btw as learned harsh lessons on BOI...

turbobaby · 09-07-2012 03:51PM

Hi Grange,

No, I currently only hold exploration stocks as I'm trying to grow my portfolio to a level where I could try to reduce the risk/return ratio and earn a modest income from dividend returns and share price appreciation.

I have mentioned that I dont have the skills for trading, nor in fact do I have the skills to analyse a market and pick the most undervalued stock, so I wouldn't be able to comment on BP.

If the Brazilian / Namibian / Precious Metal dreams turn to reality, I will most likely hand over that analysis to professionals or start to devote more of my own time to it.

Shame about your exposure to BOI. They were regarded as true low risk investments, just like houses.

turbobaby · 11-07-2012 10:07AM

Very quick update. This morning I sold out of HER (temporarily hopefully) and bought into Borders and Southern for a quick punt south of Brazil! More details to follow as in work now. HRT announced more bad drilling results yesterday too.

turbobaby · 11-07-2012 02:02PM

I had to contact the Investment Relations department of HRT yesterday to voice my disappointment because I became aware of a report issued publicly by a stock broker sponsoring HRT's current roadshow. The broker reported that the results of the directional well drilled from a gas and condensate find (which were overdue) were going to be disappointing.

Later that morning the results were released by HRT. This behaviour of management releasing or hinting at results to certain individuals before public release is going to further undermine the company. Price actions before previous drill results meant I was already suspicious of leaks. I am now convinced that their management skills are seriously lacking, after all they are oil men, not business men.

It is becoming clear that the promises made by the CEO are done on a whim. I purchased a large part of my shares in the run up to drill 6, which he claimed was an excellent prospect. Credibility is at an all time low.

It is also becoming clearer that the Solimoes asset is in fact a liability in the eyes of the market. Chariot's rise from 70p to 125p in less than a month (78%) demonstrates how much the market are interested in Namibia. I do not believe we will see a run up like this with HRT in the run up to their drilling campaign, unless we have some positive news from the Solimoes first.

You might ask why am I still invested? In terms of the Solimoes, Petrobras are producing oil there as we speak (discovered more oil yesterday!) and I trust the analysis of TNK-BP who handed out $1 billion for 45% of the Solimoes.

There are still plenty of drivers for the share price going forward so I don't feel now is the right time to sell.

Pa Dee · 11-07-2012 02:06PM

turbobaby wrote: »

I had to contact the Investment Relations department of HRT yesterday to voice my disappointment because I became aware of a report issued publicly by a stock broker sponsoring HRT's current roadshow. The broker reported that the results of the directional well drilled from a gas and condensate find (which were overdue) were going to be disappointing.

Later that morning the results were released by HRT. This behaviour of management releasing or hinting at results to certain individuals before public release is going to further undermine the company. Price actions before previous drill results meant I was already suspicious of leaks. I am now convinced that their management skills are seriously lacking, after all they are oil men, not business men.

It is becoming clear that the promises made by the CEO are done on a whim. I purchased a large part of my shares in the run up to drill 6, which he claimed was an excellent prospect. Credibility is at an all time low.

It is also becoming clearer that the Solimoes asset is in fact a liability in the eyes of the market. Chariot's rise from 70p to 125p in less than a month (78%) demonstrates how much the market are interested in Namibia. I do not believe we will see a run up like this with HRT in the run up to their drilling campaign, unless we have some positive news from the Solimoes first.

You might ask why am I still invested? In terms of the Solimoes, Petrobras are producing oil there as we speak (discovered more oil yesterday!) and I trust the analysis of TNK-BP who handed out $1 billion for 45% of the Solimoes.

There are still plenty of drivers for the share price going forward so I don't feel now is the right time to sell.

Are you thinking clearly or is your judgement now completely clouded as to base decisions on public CEO witterings?

turbobaby · 11-07-2012 02:27PM

You are correct. As a (loss bearing) current shareholder my decision making is indeed clouded.

Marcio Mello is an excellent salesman as demonstrated in this interview on Bloomberg.

http://youtu.be/fkWAcZziFik

I would not recommend a purchase of HRT shares until they can demonstrate better corporate governance and restore the trust of shareholders and analysts.

I still believe in the Solimoes and Namibia, I have just lost a lot of faith in management.

neil.p.b · 11-07-2012 05:03PM

Hi Turbo,

I've just gone over your thread for the first time and the main thing that struck me is how much your portfolio has changed in such a short time despite initially saying:

turbobaby wrote: »

I don't really trade. I just buy and hold commodity stocks with undervalued assets.

In just five months your portfolio has gone from HRP, SlvUSD, SDR and PCI to HRP, SlvUSD, CHAR, CMC, BOR, MBG (with a couple of other changes in between).

You'll see this sort of behavior with most PIs and it's the reason the majority don't make money, they invest but do some with a traders mindset - they don't have the patience to hold through the volatility of a juniors share price movement for >3 years and want to try and reap short term gains by switching their portfolio around. This never works, you need to act as a trader or an investor, being in between the two will wipe you out IMO.

turbobaby wrote: »

I like to keep my portfolio small, and try not to trade too much as the fees really add up. Also, when trying to trade in between shares you need to get your timing right twice... When to sell and when to buy. I am not good enough to do this, so I'm a buy and hold investor.

turbobaby wrote: »

Very quick update. This morning I sold out of HER (temporarily hopefully) and bought into Borders and Southern for a quick punt south of Brazil! More details to follow as in work now. HRT announced more bad drilling results yesterday too.

Another example:

turbobaby wrote: »

I am happy to take the highs and lows as the come, without the worries of having losses brought about by my trades. In short, I think I would f@ck it up!

turbobaby wrote: »

I said at the start of the thread that I planned to hold my physical silver, HRT and (to a lesser extent) PCI for a long time. Since then I have already sold out of PCI and the other share SDR. With respect to PCI I still think there is excellent value there, but other companies have got hit even harder (as I will explain below) since the start of the thread and felt they were more deserving of a punt than PCI who are serial promise breakers!

I hope you can see my point that you are not allowing nearly enough time for your research in your picks to prove itself. Despite saying you're happy to ride the highs and lows it seems you are not - not top slicing or selling on spikes up but selling on spikes down to 'invest' in another. You may now stick with your current portfolio and watch it mature but it seems in another few months it will be composed of completely new stocks as negative short term price movements make you doubt the research that made you buy in in the first place.

ATB,

Neil

turbobaby · 12-07-2012 09:28AM

Excellent post Neil. The reason I started this thread was to keep track of my thoughts and actions, and to get feedback from others, so that I could become a better "investor".

The beauty of boards is the anonymity and therefore there's no ego to protect.

You have pointed out a flaw in my "investing" to which I have no real defense. Jumping in and out of various shares is indeed something I was hoping to avoid, and have fallen victim to.

I have played around with 50% of my portfolio with only HRT and Silver remaining constant.

SDR had very poor drill results and the pace of drilling was even worse. Management did not return my calls or emails. I think the sale here was justified, and I swapped for another junior explorer MBG.

The real messing around came from selling PCI and buying HER, CHAR, CMB and now BOR. I did very little research into BOR, which is a bit worrying to be honest and if it works out it will be purely down to luck, a terrible investment strategy.

Thanks to your insight, it has become clearer to me that chopping and changing based on whims and emotions will very likely lead to failure.

With that in mind I will set some targets for my current holdings before which I should not sell out entirely.

HRT: East Solimoes drill results, Namibian farm out, Namibian first vintage drill results. (mid 2013)

SLV: Very long term hold

CHAR: Nimrod drill results (Sept)

CMB: Granting of Bishop Mill Permit (end Sept)

MBG: 2013 drill campaign

BOR: Stebbing drill results and Darwin condensate analysis results (early Sept).

Let's see how that works out!

September will be an interesting month.

Thanks again Neil.

Thargor · 12-07-2012 10:45AM

Well done for sticking with honest updates through the bad as well as the good anyway Turbobaby, guilty of the same thing myself, some cringe-inducing trades in mine over the last 6-12 months mostly based on BB hype, every one cost me money. Hopefully a bit wiser (done listening to BB rumours for sure) and only holding 4 shares now and thats not going to change, RRL/HRN/GKP/USOP, nicely in profit in all now with some possibly spectacular things to come so happy to relax and hold and offset the stupidity against the eventual CGT *touch wood*.

turbobaby · 13-07-2012 07:33AM

Cheers Thar. Good to see another poster with a high risk portfolio!

Rockhopper announced their farm out details yesterday and the market did not like it, so all the Falkland oilers got hit. I really am the kiss of death right now! Already nursing a loss on my Borders buy, but the real news will come next week regarding their drill results.

Nice to see oil back above $100 despite the strong dollar.

Incidentally, Eric Sprott announced yesterday that he has raised $200 million to purchase physical silver bullion for his PSLV trust. The floor of the silver price should be set around here.

A fellow investor of HRT has spoken with an engineer at HRT who has informed him that the results of drill 8 should be announced by the end of next week. The aim is gas, but there's also a chance of oil. He also said that he is extremely confident that Chariot will find hydrocarbons in Nimrod, but it is 50:50 whether it will be gas or oil. He said that HRT will certainly find oil in at least one of their four drills from the first vintage in Namibia. I don't trust anything coming out of HRT now, but I'm posting it here for posterity.

turbobaby · 15-07-2012 03:49PM

I suppose it is time for a screenshot even though the level of losses have not changed too much.

We should get the drill results from Borders & Southern very soon, so that will be the biggest driver this week, then HRT drill results possibly at the end of the week - expectating gas only, and then we may have a Chariot spud RNS. That Chariot drill will have a massive impact on my portfolio and the results are only about 2 months away. Nervous farts will be brewing!

Despite all the losses I'm happy with my current positions.

turbobaby · 16-07-2012 08:15AM

Very costly duster for Borders and Southern. Punt failure!

Not good at all.

liammur · 16-07-2012 08:38AM

turbobaby wrote: »

Very costly duster for Borders and Southern. Punt failure!

Not good at all.

Unlucky with BOR, but at least it wasn't your main holding. Hopefully the bigger ones will come good for you.

Grecco · 16-07-2012 04:21PM

turbobaby wrote: »

:eek:
That portfolio is purging money, you need a massive recovery on exploration stocks to get back on track but with the way the markets are risk adverse at the moment you could be in for a wait

turbobaby · 16-07-2012 05:15PM

You said it!

Since starting the thread my oil explorers have failed to find any commercial oil.

1. HRT hit a number of gas only wells in Brazil.
2. CHAR hit a duster off North Namibia.
3. BOR abandoned their drill without finding oil and running into serious difficulty off South Falklands
4. SDR (sold for good) found miserable amounts of silver in their latest drill campaign
5. HER (sold) failed to discover a high grade vein at Guamanga (major long shot!)
6. PCI (sold) ran into delay after delay with government approval of their plan to commercialize gas in Algeria.
7. CMB will not receive the decision regarding their mill permit now until September (originally March).
8. MBG suffering from their main asset being in Argentina, but at least they reported some more good grade gold drill results.

However (!), my portfolio is heavily dependent on drill results from Central and South Namibia. Also HRT have yet to drill in the more oil prone East Solimoes.

Things can change very quickly in this business!

As it stands however I am following the path of Ernest Hemingway who said "I went bankrupt slowly and then suddenly".

Pa Dee · 16-07-2012 06:11PM

turbobaby wrote: »

You said it!

Since starting the thread my oil explorers have failed to find any commercial oil.

1. HRT hit a number of gas only wells in Brazil.
2. CHAR hit a duster off North Namibia.
3. BOR abandoned their drill without finding oil and running into serious difficulty off South Falklands
4. SDR (sold for good) found miserable amounts of silver in their latest drill campaign
5. HER (sold) failed to discover a high grade vein at Guamanga (major long shot!)
6. PCI (sold) ran into delay after delay with government approval of their plan to commercialize gas in Algeria.
7. CMB will not receive the decision regarding their mill permit now until September (originally March).
8. MBG suffering from their main asset being in Argentina, but at least they reported some more good grade gold drill results.

However (!), my portfolio is heavily dependent on drill results from Central and South Namibia. Also HRT have yet to drill in the more oil prone East Solimoes.

Things can change very quickly in this business!

As it stands however I am following the path of Ernest Hemingway who said "I went bankrupt slowly and then suddenly".

Your actual positions are only 10% though of what you have on that screen shot?

turbobaby · 16-07-2012 06:56PM

Pa Dee wrote: »

Your actual positions are only 10% though of what you have on that screen shot?

The shares I no longer hold are not listed in the portfolio but the losses are included in the profit and loss figure.

To give Grecco an idea of the volatility of my stocks take a look at the 52 week lows, highs, fall from high to low and my loss.

HRT $1.36 $9.90 -86% -49%
CHAR £0.67 £2.08 -67% -2%
BOR £0.16 £1.39 -88% -73%
CMB $0.10 $0.38 -73% -13%
MBG $0.08 $0.50 -84% -53%

Pa Dee · 17-07-2012 12:00AM

turbobaby wrote: »

Pa Dee wrote: »

Your actual positions are only 10% though of what you have on that screen shot?

The shares I no longer hold are not listed in the portfolio but the losses are included in the profit and loss figure.

To give Grecco an idea of the volatility of my stocks take a look at the 52 week lows, highs, fall from high to low and my loss.

HRT $1.36 $9.90 -86% -49%
CHAR £0.67 £2.08 -67% -2%
BOR £0.16 £1.39 -88% -73%
CMB $0.10 $0.38 -73% -13%
MBG $0.08 $0.50 -84% -53%

What I mean is you are in for 5k rather than 50k ?

turbobaby · 17-07-2012 06:10AM

I didn't want to say how much my portfolio actually is. It could be €5k, it could be €5m !

turbobaby · 20-07-2012 07:04AM

Going against exactly what I said only a few posts up and despite the fact I will lose any credibilty that I have left, I will post my latest 'trades'.

Temporarily sold out of CHAR for a quick punt on RMP and added a few more BOR.

If that doesn't work out I will have to seriously consider closing this thread, or moving it to the gambling forum!

zielarz · 23-07-2012 09:46AM

Keep the updates coming.. shorting the stocks you're buying has been a great strategy so far..

turbobaby · 23-07-2012 10:00AM

I'll have to take that bit of abuse on the chin I suppose as you're absolutely right.

.... open up a short position on HRT, go on, I dare you!