My Portfolio

turbobaby

Hey all,

Following on from Adrock-aka's thread about a boards.ie fund followed on zignals.com, I have set up my own portfolio for people to see.

It almost exactly reflects my own current portfolio (perhaps a different multiple though as this is Eur 50k!) and I will be posting updates as things develop.

turbobaby

Oh the symbols are as follows:

SDR = Stroud Resources. A silver and gold explorer with properties in Mexico and Canada.

HRP = HRT Participacoes. An oil and gas explorer with properties in the Brazilian Amazon and offshore Namibia.

PCI = Petroceltic International. Our very own oil and gas explorer with properties in Algeria, Italy and Kurdistan.

SlvUSD = The silver spot price. I have part of my portfolio in physical silver.

My goal for 2012 is a 100% return on investment, i.e. to get to Eur 100k.

High Risk!

Thargor

Good man Turbobaby, keep it updated please. what software is that though, looks nice.

turbobaby

www.zignals.com

It's a great site! Irish owned, so I believe...

freeze4real

is this an hypothetical portfolio.

turbobaby

freeze4real wrote: »

is this an hypothetical portfolio.

Nope, it's real!

freeze4real

turbobaby wrote: »

Nope, it's real!

I guess it's must be a simulation. What analysis tools are you using. Or what source of information do you base trades on. Yahoo/google finance etc.

turbobaby

freeze4real wrote: »

I guess it's must be a simulation. What analysis tools are you using. Or what source of information do you base trades on. Yahoo/google finance etc.

I hold all those stocks in that ratio.

I only invest in commodities.

Silver is an obvious choice.

You can see my thread on HRP here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056511952 I love the prospects here. Non cash assets valued at close to 0.

PCI: Another stock I think is ridiculously cheap.

They just farmed out 18.375% of their Algerian Gas Field for approximately $150m and still own 56.625%. They have a little bit of debt, maybe $20m (bridging loan) which has been used because the Algerians have been so slow to ratify the farm out. The farm out cash will arrive in the next 30 days.

Using the farm out price, simple maths says that the company's main asset (56% of Algerian field) is worth between $450m and $500m. Add that to the $150m cash, minus the debt and we get approximately $580m.

PCI also have excellent assets in Kurdistan and Italy valued at 0!

Right now the market cap is...... $302m. No brainer.

Stroud: Awaiting drill results which have been very very slow. Not sure about this one!

freeze4real

turbobaby wrote: »

I hold all those stocks in that ratio.

I only invest in commodities.

Silver is an obvious choice.

You can see my thread on HRP here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056511952 I love the prospects here. Non cash assets valued at close to 0.

PCI: Another stock I think is ridiculously cheap.

They just farmed out 18.375% of their Algerian Gas Field for approximately $150m and still own 56.625%. They have a little bit of debt, maybe $20m (bridging loan) which has been used because the Algerians have been so slow to ratify the farm out. The farm out cash will arrive in the next 30 days.

Using the farm out price, simple maths says that the company's main asset (56% of Algerian field) is worth between $450m and $500m. Add that to the $150m cash, minus the debt and we get approximately $580m.

PCI also have excellent assets in Kurdistan and Italy valued at 0!

Right now the market cap is...... $302m. No brainer.

Stroud: Awaiting drill results which have been very very slow. Not sure about this one!

Nice how long have you been trading for.


What trading tools do you use.

turbobaby

I don't really trade. I just buy and hold commodity stocks with undervalued assets.

Only started in 2010. Happy not to have lost anything so far and have learned a lot!

I like your post on the boards portfolio thread. More technical analysis than me!

freeze4real

I've have no technical knowledge of trading T all. I've done some forex trading and learnt a bit if charting tools but I need to study it again this time in depth.

My best. mate manages a portfolio of 25000 from 10000.


He doesn't use any chart tools but he acts or behaves like a fundamental analysts by reading news on explorations, acquisitions and mergers etc.
What was your trading capital that you started with and your area of profession ?

turbobaby

Dont really want to get into personal details on here. Just gonna see how the portfolio performs....

You should go for one too!

Thargor

turbobaby wrote: »

www.zignals.com

It's a great site! Irish owned, so I believe...

Didn't realise you said it in the OP, doh.

Can I ask did you ever consider buying any of the popular stocks around this board, RRL, GKP and XTR etc and why you decided not to buy if you did look at them?

TJ Mackie

I've noticed a small few mutual funds that I monitor have recently invested in HRP too turbobaby - hopefully for your good fortunes these people and their vast sums of money know what they're doing!

freeze4real

I will start to manage my demo portfolio it's been long that I managed it.

turbobaby

Thargor - I have no problems whatsoever with the shares you mention. I keep an eye on them but I'm not interested in spreading my funds across a shed load of shares.

I like to keep my portfolio small, and try not to trade too much as the fees really add up. Also, when trying to trade in between shares you need to get your timing right twice... When to sell and when to buy. I am not good enough to do this, so I'm a buy and hold investor.

Will probably consult others when I am starting to think about selling, but I plan on holding silver, HRP and to a lesser extent PCI for a long time.

Mackie, great to hear about HRP. Could you let me know which mutual funds? I know Longleaf Partners are very keen on HRP and hold a lot of shares, and Eric Sprott has some holdings in the Canadian shares too.

The Pontiac

For someone who started investing in 2010 you certainly seem to know what you're doing. The HRP thread is interesting.

OfflerCrocGod

turbobaby wrote: »

I hold all those stocks in that ratio.

I only invest in commodities.

OfflerCrocGod

Why should commodities provide investors with a real risk premium? Shouldn’t prices actually decline in real terms over time? A bushel of wheat, a lump of iron-ore or an ingot of silver today is identical to a bushel of wheat, lump of iron-ore or ingot of silver produced one thousand years ago. The only difference is that they’re generally cheaper to produce because over time, human innovation has lowered the cost of production. When you buy commodities, you’re selling human ingenuity.

Dylan Grice.

turbobaby

Croc, we've had this discussion before, so please keep this thread clean and on topic. I want to keep the macro conditions out of it as much as possible. If you want to further discuss the bigger picture of US Dollars versus Commodities please go back here....

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056506476

I would love to see your portfolio in order to see who can get the greater return over 2012. I'll let you buy HRP

zephyro

Don't want to be overly critical but a couple of things I noticed:

1) it's a commodity only portfolio and historically commodities have usually performed very poorly with occasional short periods of huge outperformance. Do you plan on holding commodities long-term, in which case I don't like the odds, or is yours a short-term play?

2) you've an incredibly concentrated portfolio! Obviously any significant hit to HRP or PCI will destroy your performance, how confident are you that this won't happen?

OfflerCrocGod

zephyro wrote: »

Don't want to be overly critical but a couple of things I noticed:

1) it's a commodity only portfolio and historically commodities have usually performed very poorly with occasional short periods of huge outperformance. Do you plan on holding commodities long-term, in which case I don't like the odds, or is yours a short-term play?

2) you've an incredibly concentrated portfolio! Obviously any significant hit to HRP or PCI will destroy your performance, how confident are you that this won't happen?

We don't appreciate your logic and data backed kind round her', get of my lawn.

turbobaby

zephyro wrote: »

Don't want to be overly critical but a couple of things I noticed:

1) it's a commodity only portfolio and historically commodities have usually performed very poorly with occasional short periods of huge outperformance. Do you plan on holding commodities long-term, in which case I don't like the odds, or is yours a short-term play?

2) you've an incredibly concentrated portfolio! Obviously any significant hit to HRP or PCI will destroy your performance, how confident are you that this won't happen?

Nothing wrong with constructive critisism at all. I agree that it is incredibly concentrated but my risk tolerance is very high. There are plenty of other shares I'd be happy owning, but I chosen to concentrate it to up the risk/return ratio.

In relation to point 1, a whole thread could be dedicated to the merits or pitfalls in the investment of commodities. In a thread friendly soundbyte, I share the view of Jim Rogers when he says that commodity prices will rise whether we are going to hit a recovery or a depression. Recovery will lead to increased demand, depression will lead to printing of paper currencies.

However, not one of the three shares I own actually tracks the price of the commodity space they are in, as they're only explorers at this stage. As my portfolio grows I will look to purchase less risky shares that track commodity prices closer.

This is the embryonic stage when things are very interesting!

Raskolnikov

Good luck, but I think you're crazy to put half your portfolio into one junior resource stock.

turbobaby

Thanks Rask. I know it's very risky but I am very confident of HRT finding oil in Brazil and Namibia.

They have an outstanding management team (in terms of technical ability) but the CEO, Marcio Mello, has really let the market down by not following through on promises. Dealing with analysts, shareholders etc is a real learning curve with him. They have really punished him with the current SP. Also, he is so confident of success, that he has all of his net worth in the shares.... He even borrowed cash to buy more. Now that's what I like to see from a CEO.

I'll probably stick up a screenshot for every Eur1,000 change in the portfolio and for every trade of course.

Well done with BAC by the way!

turbobaby

Well, I said I'd update after every €1,000 change up or down, but today I jumped straight fro +€500 to just over +€2,000.

Great day for HRT and SDR on no news. Buyers starting to realise the outstanding value to be had here? I hope so!

turbobaby

I have made it past the €3,000 return barrier already (close of business yesterday). I have no doubt that I will soon crack €4,000.

HRP has performed wonderfully, confirming to me at least that it was way oversold on it's first four drill results.

PCI are down but that's attributable to at least one institutional investor selling up (Blackrock). Incidentally, Blackrock sold a portion of their shares in HRP last month, very close to the bottom. So I am hoping history repeats itself and we see PCI benefit from their exit.

Stroud has been hovering around 7c and 8c lately, but news is really really overdue from the drill bit, so I am looking forward to a little boom there so I can add some more junior mining stocks.

Really like PVG.TO and was happy to see it drop 5% yesterday. Would really love to get back in there. Sold out too early at $12. Now trading at $15.50.

Thargor

Good going, you say you hold those shares in that ratio, does that mean you have less than that actually invested, or more or the same if you don't mind me asking? Just being nosey

Also 7.3p for PCI! WTF is going on there? I sold out and broke even at 10.5 and then forgot about them, has there been dilution?

Roonbox

turbobaby wrote: »

Nothing wrong with constructive critisism at all. I agree that it is incredibly concentrated but my risk tolerance is very high. There are plenty of other shares I'd be happy owning, but I chosen to concentrate it to up the risk/return ratio.

In relation to point 1, a whole thread could be dedicated to the merits or pitfalls in the investment of commodities. In a thread friendly soundbyte, I share the view of Jim Rogers when he says that commodity prices will rise whether we are going to hit a recovery or a depression. Recovery will lead to increased demand, depression will lead to printing of paper currencies.

However, not one of the three shares I own actually tracks the price of the commodity space they are in, as they're only explorers at this stage. As my portfolio grows I will look to purchase less risky shares that track commodity prices closer.

This is the embryonic stage when things are very interesting!

I started this game in 2008, very similiar storey to yourself, Jim Rogers is my main mentor, along with some other Austrian economists, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber etc...

I went long silver and other Commodities back then, and its been good.

A word of warning, you are way too overexposed to explorers which will be destroyed once when this bear market rally ends.. Its been a straight run for 3 years now, i give it till 2013.

Make sure you are hedged.

If you do you'll be on to a winner long term.

Liam.

turbobaby

Thargor, you'll have to keep fishing for clues as I'd rather not say!

PCI's sp was battered down to 3.8p after a couple of dusters in Algeria. The market showed their incompetence again by selling off on these dusters despite the fact it was widely known that PCI were forced to drill there by the Algerian gov't.

There was an institutional investor selling up aswell so shares were available at a nice discount to those who understood the issues.

PCI, like many of the AIM shares, were hammered consistently due to the Greek issues.

The market sold off when PCI announced the Kurdistan deal as they felt PCI overpaid. They will be proven to be very wrong in time.

Selling pressure came from delays receiving cash from the Enel farm out, and GKP have swallowed up alot of AIM investment. Once they get taken out, a shedload of cash will be invested in other less loved AIM shares.

Little things like that have put pressure on the share price but nothing fundamental. Now that the cash has been received we should start moving forward again. Had a nice 7% rise yesterday.

turbobaby

Roonbox, thanks for the comments and good to see another investor of the same ilk on here.

Like the great Peter Schiff, I firmly believe huge problems are only around the corner for the US. The dog and pony show will have to end, but not until they have tried to print their way out of trouble.

Nobody knows what will happen when the faeces hits the fan, but if we get hyper inflation, commodities and shares will rise nominally, and those holding cash will be burnt.

My portfolio is very high risk, but all three shares have had the faeces kicked out of them over the last one / two years and I believe they will still represent value when the depression really comes. All three have absolutely fantastic tangiable assets that are largely not included in the share price.

turbobaby

Another update as I broken through the €4k barrier already.... and I'm knocking on the €5k door already. It's been a great start to my little project but I am under no illusions about how volatile this game is. Things change very quickly.

Pretty confident PCI has now hit a bottom, and will move beyond 8p over the coming weeks.

In other news, the Central Bank of Japan took another step forward in the race to currency armageddon by joining the UK with further easing. Discreet robbery of Japanese savers' cash. Sad really.

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Good to see somebody posting a thread of interest, admitting their skill levels and what their outlook is.

Portfolio management and diversification are sound principles, but everyone's different and all that matters is that your method is profitable.

Best of luck!

turbobaby

Thanks for your kind words Roger. Indeed I thought it was time for a thread like mine, and I'm happy if there's anyone out there enjoying it.

Anyway, here we go again with another update. I'm jumping over the €1k hurdles like Colin Jackson... Hopefully my shares dont metamorphize into Colin Hendry!

PCI hit 8p and stayed there. Blackrock must nearly be out by now.

HRP is continuing to rise. The next month will see them release drilling results from the Amazon, which could be very interesting. Meanwhile there's talk of them possibly sitting on 20 billion barrels of oil in Namibia, but I won't even entertain that thought as that would likely give me a higher net worth than Ian Dempsey! (€1million!).

I'm knocking on the €6k profit mark already so I hope to be back soon with another snapshot.

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Do you have profit targets in mind?

Or consideration for realising some of the gains at some stage to offset risk?

turbobaby

Roger, no particular figure in mind to be honest. My cash flow is grand so I've no need to sell up. When the market reflects the fair value of PCI assets I will take some off the table and move it to the next candidate. Basic maths clearly shows that's not even close yet!

HRP is a v long term hold. The Namibian asset is going to be massive and valued at 0 right now. Astonishing!

turbobaby

Well, that only took a day.

Canada is closed on Monday, Brazil is closed Monday and Tuesday, so Petroceltic will have to get my through the €7k barrier alone if the portfolio is going to continue at the same pace.

Not a bad first two weeks :eek:

turbobaby

Well, PCI almost got me through the €7k barrier on Monday, but the FX changes due to the strengthening of the Euro just kept me below €7k.

With Brazil closed yesterday I thought there would be muted action with the Canadian listing of HRT. How wrong I was! It finished 8.56% up.

Combined with PCI almost hitting 9p with an increase of 6.87%, and Silver up over 2% it was a fantastic day for my portfolio.

The euro gave back some of its gains as the markets realise that the deal for Greece has far from solved their problems.

Oil looks very strong right now.

€7k, €8k, €9k and €10k all broken in one day! Here's the screenshot:

EdenCyrus

PCI is very high risk. But they received payment recently and are reducing their loan now so I think they will be hitting around the 15p area within the year I would say.

Do you think PCI will always be a penny stock. I bought in at 4.1p


Also how's the real time in that zignals program. Is it proper real time or is there a delay

turbobaby

I actually don't think PCI is that high risk. The Algerian asset is proved up, and there's interest there for the second farm out.

The bridging loan has been repaid in full and BOC is being quoted as saying they have $75m cash.

Italy (x2) and Kurdistan are not included in the share price. Of course these could drain cash if they turn out to be failures but I don't expect that to happen.

The board bought in at 10.5p last year. I fancy we will reach that level within the month.

As far as I know there are no live prices on Zignals. All streams are delayed but maybe there's an option to pay for live streams. They dont actually work that well to be honest. Previously, with some junior miners there was no streaming, but i imagine that for most companies it works fine. I use shareprice.co.uk to track uk in realtime but Google dffer it now too.

Another good day for me yesterday. Update to follow later in the day.

foxyboxer

20% return already!

Excellent results. Best of Luck for the rest of 2012.

zielarz

This is an impressive return, 20% in less than a month.. personally i'd realize the gain at least for the short term positions. Thanks for sharing.

turbobaby

Thanks lads. January and February have been pretty good for stocks all round, but I still think I've outperformed most money managers out there! They're obviously not able to go for as risky a portfolio as mine so that's one advantage I have.

PCI took a breather yesterday and gave back some recent gains. It appears the institutional seller is not yet out.

I was a bit worried that the gain for HRT on Monday and Tuesday was a flash in the pan as it only occurred in Canada due to Brazil being closed for Carnaval. However, yesterday HRTP3 (the Brazilian listing) closed up almost 10% reflecting HRP.V's gains on Mon and Tue.

Stroud Resources are presenting at a metals conference in the first week of March so I expect them to report their long overdue drilling results before then.

Silver and gold spot prices look ready for a big move upwards.

Here's another screenshot as I broke through the €11k barrier yesterday:

turbobaby

Well, the good run had to end at some stage. Yesterday was the first significant losing day. I also got smashed in the face twice by a football at training so it wasn't a great day all round!

SDR and HRP both dropped, but on no news.

SDR is a penny stock and the 10% up and down days come pretty often. The volume was miserable too so no worries.

I expect HRP to fall a little further in the short term as it is trading at a premium to the Brazilian listing. There was a pretty big sell of in the afternoon in Brazil but I was happy to see it hold the $600 mark.

Other stocks with exposure to Namibia were generally down yesterday. I expect it is just profit taking as they've been on a very good run of late.

I won't post a screenshot again until I've broken through the high water mark, so I've a bit of a way to go now from the current position. However, I am still on target for a 100% return on investment in 2012.

EdenCyrus

Well At least PCI have Kurdistan. Market is a miserable old git at times, but if this pulls through, fingers crossed Kurdistan will have a significant impact on SP overall.

Your still doing well. Im watching this closely on a daily basis. Keep at it.

Speculator

Best of luck with your portfolio!

turbobaby

Thanks lads.

Spec... I've always followed your posts and happy to see you are still around here. If you remember, last year I had a small position in your pick GCL.L. It has picked up nicely these last few weeks. I believe there's no getting away from nuclear so I think you are on to a winner there.

Here's an interesting short presentation from the CEO of Uranium Energy Corp http://youtu.be/qBvYTCrcTt0

Would you consider putting up some of your stock picks again?

turbobaby

I don't often get the chance to use the word "breached" in my everyday life but I have the chance to use it twice now so here it goes.

After a wonderful performance by PCI and HRP in the markets today with some very strong buying, I breached the high water mark and I breached the €12,000 marker!

I feel this is the beginning of a re-rating for PCI. Long overdue I might add, but it gave me a chance to add to my positions over the last 9 months or so, so I am thankful for that. I am starting to think the best time to buy into shares is when an institutional investor is selling (once you have high confidence in the firm's assets).

Blackrock have sold positions in both PCI and HRP in 2012. How much I do not know as they brought their shareholdings below the level at which the need to inform the company. IIs dumping shares on the market sometimes forces nervous sellers to get out too. Of course this can be a wise move, but when the fundamentals of the company are so sound you should see this as a wonderful opportunity to grab a bargain. I feel this is the case with both my oil explorer picks.

I am confident now as it looks like everything is rosey, but the investment world can be very cruel so what's to say Blackrock are right and I'm wrong... Only time will tell.

Here's the screen shot....

liammur

turbobaby wrote: »

I don't often get the chance to use the word "breached" in my everyday life but I have the chance to use it twice now so here it goes.

After a wonderful performance by PCI and HRP in the markets today with some very strong buying, I breached the high water mark and I breached the €12,000 marker!

I feel this is the beginning of a re-rating for PCI. Long overdue I might add, but it gave me a chance to add to my positions over the last 9 months or so, so I am thankful for that. I am starting to think the best time to buy into shares is when an institutional investor is selling (once you have high confidence in the firm's assets).

Blackrock have sold positions in both PCI and HRP in 2012. How much I do not know as they brought their shareholdings below the level at which the need to inform the company. IIs dumping shares on the market sometimes forces nervous sellers to get out too. Of course this can be a wise move, but when the fundamentals of the company are so sound you should see this as a wonderful opportunity to grab a bargain. I feel this is the case with both my oil explorer picks.

I am confident now as it looks like everything is rosey, but the investment world can be very cruel so what's to say Blackrock are right and I'm wrong... Only time will tell.

Here's the screen shot....

Well done. Stick to the risky assets is my advice. I lost a 6 figure sum on IL&P recently. Citi/Davy had it tipped at €3-6, but M Noonan gave us 3cents. The directors were only too happy to go along with his valuation.

Will never again buy anything Irish.

What trading company are you with ? I like the look of that platform.

turbobaby

Liam, sorry to hear about your experience with Irish Life. Sadly, this kind of sh1t is not limited to Ireland.

There are so many 'experts' rolled out on TV with the goal of reassuring people that everything will be just fine, soft landing etc. I love the phrase 'ah sure they'll never let that happen' - I hear people say to me when I might mention that the dollar will be dropped as the world reserve currency within ten years, or when I said house prices were going to drop further.

Stock brokers, just like real estate agents should not be trusted. Economics analysts working at banks should be ignored. Government bodies should absolutely be ignored.

Money managers who want you to invest with them are happy to suck commissions out of you, and they (and in turn the man on the street) will tell you to stay away from precious metals.

turbobaby

turbobaby wrote: »

Silver and gold spot prices look ready for a big move upwards.

They did indeed make a nice little move upwards over the last couple of days... But my silver miner is still languishing at all time lows because the CEO is a disaster. No news releases and he will not answer any investor emails.

Up over €13,000 now despite PCI giving back some of the gains from Monday.