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Gambling for a living?

  • 01-07-2012 9:36pm
    #1
    ghogie91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭


    Is this possible?

    Anyone survive day to day by making informed bets? Taking risks?


«1

Comments

  • #2
    Firegaurd
    Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭Firegaurd


    Paddy Power is doing alright out of it


  • #3
    ghogie91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭ghogie91


    Firegaurd wrote: »
    Paddy Power is doing alright out of it

    Well yeah but i mean the average joe soap?


  • #4
    RonnieLimerick
    Registered Users Posts: 11 ✭RonnieLimerick


    ghogie91 wrote: »
    Well yeah but i mean the average joe soap?


    i knew an compulsive gambling Joe soap who committed suicide last year , he had a thoroughly miserable existence .


    you have been warned , stay away from gambling , once you start down the dark path forever will it rule thy destiny !!


  • #5
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,601 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Of course its possible, the thousands on professional punters are prove of that. Can your average joe soap do it, no. Only exceptionally talent people would suceed


  • #6
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    It is possible but requires a lot of discipline, patience, nerve & probably most of all hard work

    A lad I went to college with is a very successful poker player & football gambler. Puts in a huge amount of work however

    For every one that succeeds I'm sure many fail however


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  • #7
    ghogie91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭ghogie91


    Mellor wrote: »
    Can your average joe soap do it, no. Only exceptionally talent people would suceed

    As a matter of interest, what talent would be involved in a game full of risks?


  • #8
    Nonoperational
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,401 ✭✭✭Nonoperational


    Almost impossible for a normal person betting relatively small amounts. Inside info or huge capital are required.


  • #9
    DB74
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    I disagree that inside info is needed


  • #10
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,601 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    ghogie91 wrote: »
    As a matter of interest, what talent would be involved in a game full of risks?
    the ability to accurately assess the probability of outcomes. That's the key really, if the probability is accurate it's pretty straight forward to see which bets are best value.


  • #11
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,156 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Mellor wrote: »
    the ability to accurately assess the probability of outcomes. That's the key really, if the probability is accurate it's pretty straight forward to see which bets are best value.

    Pretty much.

    You firstly need a bank maybe 20k so at least if you have a poor start or go on a bad run its not end of the world.

    You also need the ability to price an event yourself, do your research,it is time consuming.

    In an ideal world you would get up at nine place some bets and come and collect not possible unless you are superb.

    And of course a Betfair account because Paddy and the lads will shut you down asap if you go on a run.


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  • #12
    ghogie91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭ghogie91


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    You firstly need a bank maybe 20k so at least if you have a poor start or go on a bad run its not end of the world.

    You also need the ability to price an event yourself, do your research,it is time consuming.

    In an ideal world you would get up at nine place some bets and come and collect not possible unless you are superb.

    And of course a Betfair account because Paddy and the lads will shut you down asap if you go on a run.

    Have heard horror stories about Paddy Power alright, although i put it down to sore losers! :P

    I was just looking today on other threads of probability of certain outcomes of the lotto for example, which 45 balls have come out in patterns recently, surely betting this way of betting is way too weak, as like any ball can come out at any certain time, its not a case of 2 coming out because it hasnt come out the last 1000 times just say, same on a roulette table, and poker somewhat, so that leaves the likes of professional sport, horses, tennis, golf soccer, rugby,

    when people are consuming hours surely its aaspects of strenght vs form vs whatever else on these sports rather than sitting there throwing a few numbers up in the air to guess the winning lotto numbers?


  • #13
    BKC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,191 ✭✭✭BKC


    ghogie91 wrote: »
    when people are consuming hours surely its aaspects of strenght vs form vs whatever else on these sports rather than sitting there throwing a few numbers up in the air to guess the winning lotto numbers?

    I can assure you professional gamblers don't make their money from betting on the lotto, if that's what you're saying?


  • #14
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    No I can't see any professional gamblers even playing the lotto never mind expending energy worrying about it probabilistically

    Professionals use their knowledge, experience, statistics etc to price up an event. If they can get more favourable odds than they believe are fair they bet as they feel they have an edge

    If you only bet when the odds are in your favour and have a reasonably staking plan you should finish ahead in the long run

    Of course this assumes you can assess odds more accurately than the bookmaker and/or you are Aware of deliberate biases in their prices.


  • #15
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    A must read if you're a soccer punter

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/1905153651


  • #16
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    I make a living from gambling , I don't do horses but most other sports , I look for value . The returns are small I average about 4% return on investment . You will only make money long term betting on value , i'm not talking about someone saying ive placed 100 bets and im up 20% - 100 is a tiny sample size .

    To sum up to make money you got to have discipline have a staking system , read stuff like the kelly criterion ( although i don;t follow that myself) , but most of all you got to be betting on value and no how to determine value , I determine value by measuring markets against Betfair and Asian bookmakers , if the price is above these i take it .


  • #17
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    You need to be able to handicap for yourself to be successful long term, you will be able to determine then which is the best bet in each circumstance.

    Discipline and determination are hugely important also, you can not entertain the idea that you will get rich any time soon either, you are always looking for small return on investment and some people can't handle this and try to get the big win which eventually leads to them going broke.

    I would not recommend it for 99% of the population, but the professionals who are making a steady living at it prove that it can be done. If someone is looking to try it I would first recommend that they do a lot of research first into how to make a book in the first place, and to focus purely on the sport/s that you have an edge on.

    A good trial while still earning your living elsewhere would be a great way of finding out, for little money or none if you just do a fake log for example, if it is the path for you. Log bets for a set period of time, assess the situation after that.


  • #18
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,156 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    kryogen wrote: »

    A good trial while still earning your living elsewhere would be a great way of finding out, for little money or none if you just do a fake log for example, if it is the path for you. Log bets for a set period of time, assess the situation after that.


    Yep, a log is and a trial run with small stakes are a very good ideas.

    The other thing as well, you don't want to have to many commitments, or at least you need an understanding other half.

    I knew someone who was quite good at it, but in his late thirties he gave it up because it got a little stressful because he had children to provide for and they were growing up and he knew a bad run didn't just hurt him it also effected them. That's a lot of pressure.

    Ideally you want to do it when younger and of course with as little overheads as possible.


  • #19
    jjll
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,200 ✭✭✭jjll


    i remember seeing that mark the couch item on ruk about his pro gambling he has people in the big yards and knows when horses are ready.. he did his B@##**ks and mortgaged his house to get going again not a great idea i imagine


  • #20
    Formation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    Yes there are thousands of people making a living from gambling.

    you will never hear from them.


  • #21
    Johnhonson
    Registered Users Posts: 1 ✭Johnhonson


    "It is possible but requires a lot of discipline, patience, nerve & probably most of all hard work"

    From my point of view I will recommend reading this article The Kelly Criterion : Finding An Edge and generally materials about Kelly Criterion + gametheory as a background information about what to do before going 100 procent into it.


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  • #22
    ghogie91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭ghogie91


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    and/or you are Aware of deliberate biases in their prices.

    So your leaning towards the inside info?


  • #23
    ghogie91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭ghogie91


    Johnhonson wrote: »
    "It is possible but requires a lot of discipline, patience, nerve & probably most of all hard work"

    From my point of view I will recommend reading this article The Kelly Criterion : Finding An Edge and generally materials about Kelly Criterion + gametheory as a background information about what to do before going 100 procent into it.

    Going to read rite now!

    Thanks


  • #24
    lamoss
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 408 ✭✭lamoss


    This is an excellent article to read.,from bettingexpert site :)

    http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/talking-betting-with-marcel-mavronicholas


  • #25
    myhorse
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 339 ✭✭myhorse


    .


  • #26
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    ghogie91 wrote: »
    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    and/or you are Aware of deliberate biases in their prices.

    So your leaning towards the inside info?

    Nope

    Bookies compilers not only analyse what they think will happen bit also how punters will behave. If Man Utd play QPR at home which team will most punters want to back? Man Utd of course. They'll be a short price so a lot of "interest" punters will look at double results, score casts etc & a lot of these prices will be artificially low (and maybe some of the less likely results will be better value)

    The bets most likely to represent value are those that the bookmaker finds most difficult to sell. Draws in football games are one example. I'll wager that the odds on a QPR/QPR double result in the match above is more likely to be priced incorrectly that Man Utd/Man Utd. Obviously less likely to happen but edge is edge (assuming the price actually good value rather than "less bad value")

    There's a section in the Kevin Pullein book I posted earlier discussing exactly this (but far more eloquently than I could put it)


  • #27
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Nope

    Bookies compilers not only analyse what they think will happen bit also how punters will behave. If Man Utd play QPR at home which team will most punters want to back? Man Utd of course. They'll be a short price so a lot of "interest" punters will look at double results, score casts etc & a lot of these prices will be artificially low (and maybe some of the less likely results will be better value)

    The bets most likely to represent value are those that the bookmaker finds most difficult to sell. Draws in football games are one example. I'll wager that the odds on a QPR/QPR double result in the match above is more likely to be priced incorrectly that Man Utd/Man Utd. Obviously less likely to happen but edge is edge (assuming the price actually good value rather than "less bad value")

    There's a section in the Kevin Pullein book I posted earlier discussing exactly this (but far more eloquently than I could put it)


    Forgetting all the high overround markets like FGS/CS etc the bookmaker has little control now over there 1-X-2 , they can take a position on a game if they like but they will be hammered on it , most bookies can't hold an out of line price now for more than half an hour , the prices are not controlled by some guy in the back of Paddypower etc , the prices come from Asia and Asian markets ultimately decide the line , millions is bet through agents over there at bookies that will take 6 figure bets , the line is decided here and filters through to Asians/exchanges like Pinnacle/Sbobet/12bet/Betfair , if a highstreet bookie wants to go against the line they will lose out long term not only because of the efficiency of the market but also the fact that arbers/value betters etc will hit them hard .


  • #28
    myhorse
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 339 ✭✭myhorse


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    No I can't see any professional gamblers even playing the lotto never mind expending energy worrying about it probabilistically.

    Wrong wrong wrong. In a place far from padypower/WH/ladbrokes etc there is currently a uber mega tax case beginning. At the heart of it the biggest and most succesful gambling syndicate that has ever been seen. They use keno (keno / lotto same same) when the jackpot hits a certain target. Does not bother them they know what they are doing.

    Now forget any gamblers you have ever heard of. Forget the big gambles you have read about. These are the greatest that have ever been and probably ever will be. No inside info no tips no pulling strokes. The complete opposite. They have in fact cracked the holy grail of gambling.

    The OP asked about gambling for a living - pure gambling? In a word no ...unless...you have a head for maths at an actuary level and are a pretty good programmer. No need for tips or inside info or strokes if you have those two attributes and can weigh ALL the factors correctly.

    the tax case is for 900 million and only covers a 3 year period on a turn over of over 2 billion a year - yes that is billion. That is the level we are talking about and they do use a form of lotto as above (keno). Half the fun is looking but the info is freely available on the web


  • #29
    four18
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 460 ✭✭four18


    The Downside...... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpSGJOrtoVg&list=FLHbVDRyLqK-ORpEi9_O9CFQ&index=60&feature=plpp_video


  • #30
    paulo6891
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 352 ✭✭paulo6891


    Only use the Kelly criterion if you want to lose your money quickly! I would advise you to stay well clear of that.


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  • #31
    Johnny Cage
    Registered Users Posts: 40 ✭Johnny Cage


    clickerquicklic wrote: »
    I make a living from gambling , I don't do horses but most other sports , I look for value . The returns are small I average about 4% return on investment . You will only make money long term betting on value , i'm not talking about someone saying ive placed 100 bets and im up 20% - 100 is a tiny sample size .

    To sum up to make money you got to have discipline have a staking system , read stuff like the kelly criterion ( although i don;t follow that myself) , but most of all you got to be betting on value and no how to determine value , I determine value by measuring markets against Betfair and Asian bookmakers , if the price is above these i take it .

    Do you trade at all or just straight out value betting?


  • #32
    Si1965
    Registered Users Posts: 23 ✭Si1965


    myhorse wrote: »
    Wrong wrong wrong. In a place far from padypower/WH/ladbrokes etc there is currently a uber mega tax case beginning. At the heart of it the biggest and most succesful gambling syndicate that has ever been seen. They use keno (keno / lotto same same) when the jackpot hits a certain target. Does not bother them they know what they are doing.

    Now forget any gamblers you have ever heard of. Forget the big gambles you have read about. These are the greatest that have ever been and probably ever will be. No inside info no tips no pulling strokes. The complete opposite. They have in fact cracked the holy grail of gambling.

    The OP asked about gambling for a living - pure gambling? In a word no ...unless...you have a head for maths at an actuary level and are a pretty good programmer. No need for tips or inside info or strokes if you have those two attributes and can weigh ALL the factors correctly.

    the tax case is for 900 million and only covers a 3 year period on a turn over of over 2 billion a year - yes that is billion. That is the level we are talking about and they do use a form of lotto as above (keno). Half the fun is looking but the info is freely available on the web

    Googled this - makes interesting reading...

    http://afr.com/p/national/no_humbling_great_gambler_1RahGi92iAkDFfUmE87CeO


  • #33
    kincsem
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,013 ✭✭✭kincsem


    You need
    No interest in gambling. By that I mean you do not need action. You must have patience to wait for opportunities. Self control.
    A high volume market with a small margin (bookie percent / rake). Betfair is the place, or similar. You should have a number of accounts as prices vary.
    You must be able to assess all the possibilities, all the qualities of the field, and the conditions of the competition (distance, weather, ground, altitude ...)
    Courage in forming an opinion and backing it. Courage to bet more when the odds are higher and you think the general opinion is excessively wrong.
    An ability to work long hours.

    If you specialise in one sport that might be a problem if that sport has a short season.


  • #34
    confusedlad
    Registered Users Posts: 16 ✭confusedlad


    If you correctly bet on 23 teams to win or lose throughout europe a 5euro accumalator will earn you 1million. But if one match is wrong you lose the entire bet. Still better odds than the lotto.


  • #35
    paulo6891
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 352 ✭✭paulo6891


    kincsem wrote: »
    Betfair is the place, or similar.

    Betfair charge 5% commission so if it is a big sporting event, you will get better prices with a bookie.


  • #36
    kincsem
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,013 ✭✭✭kincsem


    paulo6891 wrote: »
    Betfair charge 5% commission so if it is a big sporting event, you will get better prices with a bookie.
    Thank you.

    My winning bet on Solemia in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with
    Betfair paid 75s = 74/1 less 5% = 70.3/1
    The bookies paid 33/1.

    My stake was €182.68.
    With the bookies I would have won €6,028.44.
    Betting with Betfair I made an extra €6,813.96.


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  • #37
    paulo6891
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 352 ✭✭paulo6891


    kincsem wrote: »
    Thank you.

    No need to be so sarcastic, I'm just trying to be helpful to the OP.

    Yo were betting on a high overround market so the prices were always going to be bigger on BF.

    If you are backing long shots you can get bigger on BF, but most people back shorter prices in general, and the bookies are nearly always bigger than BF.

    What price were the Asian bookmakers? Did you check smarkets and Betdaq, what prices were they? What was their liquidity like as they take less commission?

    Unfortunately, the l'Arc de Triomphe is not on every day of the week. I do not bet on horses, but I would doubt that in an average race, you can get nearly 200 quid on a 70/1 shot.

    I just know that from a football point of view, BF is never best price in the grade A stuff. They are not best price in any of todays matches in the Prem, La Liga etc etc on either the home team, the draw or the away team. Neither are they best in any of the over/under goals markets.


  • #38
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    No point saying Betfair are always better or always worse

    There are instances when Betfair will kick lumps out of book makers prices but also times when you're better off with the bookie. You'll often see a football team 2.06 or 2.08 (before ommission) be available at 11/10 with a bookie

    Each way terms with book makers can also be very advantageous (eg a bookmaker betting 1/4 the odds will give you evs the place on a 4/1 shot. Quite often the win price is comparable with Betfair but Betfair place only price shorter). Needless to say there are countless other examples where the place only price is better than the place price implied by bookmakers each way terms

    The best advice is have accounts with as many bookmakers as possible so that you can take the best price available at all times


  • #39
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,404 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    I think its a case of backing sure things at small odds with decent money,
    And to alter bets, ie pts,
    Made two bets in reality lately,
    Man of Erin & Days Ahead
    Each 50 win
    Each won


  • #40
    clickerquicklic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭clickerquicklic


    You have to back things that are more likely to happen than the odds suggest and do this with a small percentage of your bankroll so you don't go bust first in case any negative variance wipes you out .


  • #41
    The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,380 ✭✭✭The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman


    Gambling for a living is something thats always interested me. I've flirted with the idea many times, especially over the last few years but I decided against going down the route when I had a family to look after. Variance can be too much of a bitch and I was mainly thinking of going down the poker route anyway.

    I always thought a big synticate would work well and reading some of that stuff on Ranogajec and the Austrailian syndicate has me chomping at the bit to get back into the gambling big time!


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  • #42
    arrowloopboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,154 ✭✭✭arrowloopboy


    None of ye actually believe that ye could make a living from Gambling do ye:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:,yis are paddy powers wet dream:D.
    If ye want to put in a bit of effort there is something simular to horse racing ye could study,its always a two horse race ,you always get to back the favourite,you make your own odds,you can add to a winning horse or call off the bet if its loosing,sound good yet........?

    Ye are exactly why paddy power shares started at about 3 pence and are now at 60 ,so THANK YOU.
    bulls make money ,bears make money....................lambs get slaughtered (guess which ones ye are)


  • #43
    Juwwi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,251 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    arrowloopboy wrote: »
    None of ye actually believe that ye could make a living from Gambling do ye:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:,yis are paddy powers wet dream:D.
    If ye want to put in a bit of effort there is something simular to horse racing ye could study,its always a two horse race ,you always get to back the favourite,you make your own odds,you can add to a winning horse or call off the bet if its loosing,sound good yet........?

    Ye are exactly why paddy power shares started at about 3 pence and are now at 60 ,so THANK YOU.
    bulls make money ,bears make money....................lambs get slaughtered (guess which ones ye are)[/    QUOTE]





    Maybe your own bets have helped a little aswell :pac::pac:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=74462457


  • #44
    arrowloopboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,154 ✭✭✭arrowloopboy


    My point exactly Robbie,well spotted,that was a two horse race and the crappy team beat the great team,the odds were distorted because Dublin were in the final,hence my gamble.While i bet most days,i very very rarely gamble.
    The facts are you cannot get enough accurate relavent reliable data on horses/soccer/tennis etc to build a reliable system that will pre determine an expectancy over any given number of gambles,and yet their are guys on here thinking they can do this for a living:rolleyes:.As with a casino ,the bookies can't loose,so if the bookies can't loose,who will..................
    P.S
    Don't be too concerned for me loosing 100 quid to Paddy,hes paid be back several 100 times over thanks to you guys:D:D:D.


  • #45
    areyawell
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭areyawell


    Yes people make millions of euro from gambling. I used to work in a betting exchange and people some people make a fortune.

    It takes a lot of discipline, learning, patience and bankroll management to succeed and not succumbing to something called "TILT" when sports betting and playing poker or you could blow your entire bankroll in a minute. This is where must people fail! Peoples emotions get the better of them and they don't know what there doing and place stupid bets or go crazy playing poker.

    Heres examples of professional poker players who came from nothing, Phil Ivey used to work in McDonalds before he started playing poker and is now worth like 100 million from poker(estimate) and probably a lot more.



    Online professional Poker players below


  • #46
    irishdude11
    Registered Users Posts: 377 ✭✭irishdude11


    Phil Ivey is rumoured to be broke...his ex-wife has brought him to court because stopped paying support after Black Friday. He has pissed away a crazy amount of money through degeneracy.

    Ivey is one of the few TV pros that is actually any good. Most of the 'big names' make most of their money through endorsements which is the smart thing to do. Ivey himself has made most of his money through being involved with Full Tilt..he certainly hasn't made anything remotely near $100 million purely from playing poker.


  • #47
    dave3004
    Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭dave3004


    Phil Ivey is a c*nt !


  • #48
    getzls
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 806 ✭✭✭getzls


    I would win about £100 per week online playing poker.

    Have thought of stepping up levels but in comforable level.


  • #49
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    arrowloopboy wrote: »
    None of ye actually believe that ye could make a living from Gambling do ye:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:,yis are paddy powers wet dream:D.
    If ye want to put in a bit of effort there is something simular to horse racing ye could study,its always a two horse race ,you always get to back the favourite,you make your own odds,you can add to a winning horse or call off the bet if its loosing,sound good yet........?

    Ye are exactly why paddy power shares started at about 3 pence and are now at 60 ,so THANK YOU.
    bulls make money ,bears make money....................lambs get slaughtered (guess which ones ye are)

    One of my favourite posts of all time.

    Paddy Power shares are at sixty pence? I suggest you look again


  • #50
    areyawell
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭areyawell


    People lose in gambling from using sites like Paddy Power and not proper sites with betting exchanges. If you understand and learn about betting exchanges then that's where the money is!


  • #51
    paulo6891
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 352 ✭✭paulo6891


    areyawell wrote: »
    People lose in gambling from using sites like Paddy Power and not proper sites with betting exchanges.


    Why is this?


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