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Gambling for a living?

  • 01-07-2012 8:36pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,122 ghogie91


    Is this possible?

    Anyone survive day to day by making informed bets? Taking risks?


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭ Firegaurd


    Paddy Power is doing alright out of it


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,122 ghogie91


    Firegaurd wrote: »
    Paddy Power is doing alright out of it

    Well yeah but i mean the average joe soap?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11 ✭✭✭ RonnieLimerick


    ghogie91 wrote: »
    Well yeah but i mean the average joe soap?


    i knew an compulsive gambling Joe soap who committed suicide last year , he had a thoroughly miserable existence .


    you have been warned , stay away from gambling , once you start down the dark path forever will it rule thy destiny !!


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,379 ✭✭✭✭ Mellor


    Of course its possible, the thousands on professional punters are prove of that. Can your average joe soap do it, no. Only exceptionally talent people would suceed


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭ Colonel Sanders


    It is possible but requires a lot of discipline, patience, nerve & probably most of all hard work

    A lad I went to college with is a very successful poker player & football gambler. Puts in a huge amount of work however

    For every one that succeeds I'm sure many fail however


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,122 ghogie91


    Mellor wrote: »
    Can your average joe soap do it, no. Only exceptionally talent people would suceed

    As a matter of interest, what talent would be involved in a game full of risks?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,399 ✭✭✭ Nonoperational


    Almost impossible for a normal person betting relatively small amounts. Inside info or huge capital are required.


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 DB74


    I disagree that inside info is needed


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,379 ✭✭✭✭ Mellor


    ghogie91 wrote: »
    As a matter of interest, what talent would be involved in a game full of risks?
    the ability to accurately assess the probability of outcomes. That's the key really, if the probability is accurate it's pretty straight forward to see which bets are best value.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,590 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    Mellor wrote: »
    the ability to accurately assess the probability of outcomes. That's the key really, if the probability is accurate it's pretty straight forward to see which bets are best value.

    Pretty much.

    You firstly need a bank maybe 20k so at least if you have a poor start or go on a bad run its not end of the world.

    You also need the ability to price an event yourself, do your research,it is time consuming.

    In an ideal world you would get up at nine place some bets and come and collect not possible unless you are superb.

    And of course a Betfair account because Paddy and the lads will shut you down asap if you go on a run.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,122 ghogie91


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    You firstly need a bank maybe 20k so at least if you have a poor start or go on a bad run its not end of the world.

    You also need the ability to price an event yourself, do your research,it is time consuming.

    In an ideal world you would get up at nine place some bets and come and collect not possible unless you are superb.

    And of course a Betfair account because Paddy and the lads will shut you down asap if you go on a run.

    Have heard horror stories about Paddy Power alright, although i put it down to sore losers! :P

    I was just looking today on other threads of probability of certain outcomes of the lotto for example, which 45 balls have come out in patterns recently, surely betting this way of betting is way too weak, as like any ball can come out at any certain time, its not a case of 2 coming out because it hasnt come out the last 1000 times just say, same on a roulette table, and poker somewhat, so that leaves the likes of professional sport, horses, tennis, golf soccer, rugby,

    when people are consuming hours surely its aaspects of strenght vs form vs whatever else on these sports rather than sitting there throwing a few numbers up in the air to guess the winning lotto numbers?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,191 BKC


    ghogie91 wrote: »
    when people are consuming hours surely its aaspects of strenght vs form vs whatever else on these sports rather than sitting there throwing a few numbers up in the air to guess the winning lotto numbers?

    I can assure you professional gamblers don't make their money from betting on the lotto, if that's what you're saying?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭ Colonel Sanders


    No I can't see any professional gamblers even playing the lotto never mind expending energy worrying about it probabilistically

    Professionals use their knowledge, experience, statistics etc to price up an event. If they can get more favourable odds than they believe are fair they bet as they feel they have an edge

    If you only bet when the odds are in your favour and have a reasonably staking plan you should finish ahead in the long run

    Of course this assumes you can assess odds more accurately than the bookmaker and/or you are Aware of deliberate biases in their prices.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭ Colonel Sanders


    A must read if you're a soccer punter

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/1905153651


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 clickerquicklic


    I make a living from gambling , I don't do horses but most other sports , I look for value . The returns are small I average about 4% return on investment . You will only make money long term betting on value , i'm not talking about someone saying ive placed 100 bets and im up 20% - 100 is a tiny sample size .

    To sum up to make money you got to have discipline have a staking system , read stuff like the kelly criterion ( although i don;t follow that myself) , but most of all you got to be betting on value and no how to determine value , I determine value by measuring markets against Betfair and Asian bookmakers , if the price is above these i take it .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 25,973 ✭✭✭✭ kryogen


    You need to be able to handicap for yourself to be successful long term, you will be able to determine then which is the best bet in each circumstance.

    Discipline and determination are hugely important also, you can not entertain the idea that you will get rich any time soon either, you are always looking for small return on investment and some people can't handle this and try to get the big win which eventually leads to them going broke.

    I would not recommend it for 99% of the population, but the professionals who are making a steady living at it prove that it can be done. If someone is looking to try it I would first recommend that they do a lot of research first into how to make a book in the first place, and to focus purely on the sport/s that you have an edge on.

    A good trial while still earning your living elsewhere would be a great way of finding out, for little money or none if you just do a fake log for example, if it is the path for you. Log bets for a set period of time, assess the situation after that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,590 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    kryogen wrote: »

    A good trial while still earning your living elsewhere would be a great way of finding out, for little money or none if you just do a fake log for example, if it is the path for you. Log bets for a set period of time, assess the situation after that.


    Yep, a log is and a trial run with small stakes are a very good ideas.

    The other thing as well, you don't want to have to many commitments, or at least you need an understanding other half.

    I knew someone who was quite good at it, but in his late thirties he gave it up because it got a little stressful because he had children to provide for and they were growing up and he knew a bad run didn't just hurt him it also effected them. That's a lot of pressure.

    Ideally you want to do it when younger and of course with as little overheads as possible.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,200 jjll


    i remember seeing that mark the couch item on ruk about his pro gambling he has people in the big yards and knows when horses are ready.. he did his [email protected]##**ks and mortgaged his house to get going again not a great idea i imagine


  • Registered Users Posts: 712 Formation


    Yes there are thousands of people making a living from gambling.

    you will never hear from them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1 Johnhonson


    "It is possible but requires a lot of discipline, patience, nerve & probably most of all hard work"

    From my point of view I will recommend reading this article The Kelly Criterion : Finding An Edge and generally materials about Kelly Criterion + gametheory as a background information about what to do before going 100 procent into it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,122 ghogie91


    and/or you are Aware of deliberate biases in their prices.

    So your leaning towards the inside info?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,122 ghogie91


    Johnhonson wrote: »
    "It is possible but requires a lot of discipline, patience, nerve & probably most of all hard work"

    From my point of view I will recommend reading this article The Kelly Criterion : Finding An Edge and generally materials about Kelly Criterion + gametheory as a background information about what to do before going 100 procent into it.

    Going to read rite now!

    Thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 404 ✭✭ lamoss


    This is an excellent article to read.,from bettingexpert site :)

    http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/talking-betting-with-marcel-mavronicholas


  • Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭ myhorse


    .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭ Colonel Sanders


    ghogie91 wrote: »
    and/or you are Aware of deliberate biases in their prices.

    So your leaning towards the inside info?

    Nope

    Bookies compilers not only analyse what they think will happen bit also how punters will behave. If Man Utd play QPR at home which team will most punters want to back? Man Utd of course. They'll be a short price so a lot of "interest" punters will look at double results, score casts etc & a lot of these prices will be artificially low (and maybe some of the less likely results will be better value)

    The bets most likely to represent value are those that the bookmaker finds most difficult to sell. Draws in football games are one example. I'll wager that the odds on a QPR/QPR double result in the match above is more likely to be priced incorrectly that Man Utd/Man Utd. Obviously less likely to happen but edge is edge (assuming the price actually good value rather than "less bad value")

    There's a section in the Kevin Pullein book I posted earlier discussing exactly this (but far more eloquently than I could put it)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 clickerquicklic


    Nope

    Bookies compilers not only analyse what they think will happen bit also how punters will behave. If Man Utd play QPR at home which team will most punters want to back? Man Utd of course. They'll be a short price so a lot of "interest" punters will look at double results, score casts etc & a lot of these prices will be artificially low (and maybe some of the less likely results will be better value)

    The bets most likely to represent value are those that the bookmaker finds most difficult to sell. Draws in football games are one example. I'll wager that the odds on a QPR/QPR double result in the match above is more likely to be priced incorrectly that Man Utd/Man Utd. Obviously less likely to happen but edge is edge (assuming the price actually good value rather than "less bad value")

    There's a section in the Kevin Pullein book I posted earlier discussing exactly this (but far more eloquently than I could put it)


    Forgetting all the high overround markets like FGS/CS etc the bookmaker has little control now over there 1-X-2 , they can take a position on a game if they like but they will be hammered on it , most bookies can't hold an out of line price now for more than half an hour , the prices are not controlled by some guy in the back of Paddypower etc , the prices come from Asia and Asian markets ultimately decide the line , millions is bet through agents over there at bookies that will take 6 figure bets , the line is decided here and filters through to Asians/exchanges like Pinnacle/Sbobet/12bet/Betfair , if a highstreet bookie wants to go against the line they will lose out long term not only because of the efficiency of the market but also the fact that arbers/value betters etc will hit them hard .


  • Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭ myhorse


    No I can't see any professional gamblers even playing the lotto never mind expending energy worrying about it probabilistically.

    Wrong wrong wrong. In a place far from padypower/WH/ladbrokes etc there is currently a uber mega tax case beginning. At the heart of it the biggest and most succesful gambling syndicate that has ever been seen. They use keno (keno / lotto same same) when the jackpot hits a certain target. Does not bother them they know what they are doing.

    Now forget any gamblers you have ever heard of. Forget the big gambles you have read about. These are the greatest that have ever been and probably ever will be. No inside info no tips no pulling strokes. The complete opposite. They have in fact cracked the holy grail of gambling.

    The OP asked about gambling for a living - pure gambling? In a word no ...unless...you have a head for maths at an actuary level and are a pretty good programmer. No need for tips or inside info or strokes if you have those two attributes and can weigh ALL the factors correctly.

    the tax case is for 900 million and only covers a 3 year period on a turn over of over 2 billion a year - yes that is billion. That is the level we are talking about and they do use a form of lotto as above (keno). Half the fun is looking but the info is freely available on the web


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 460 ✭✭ four18




  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    Only use the Kelly criterion if you want to lose your money quickly! I would advise you to stay well clear of that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Johnny Cage


    I make a living from gambling , I don't do horses but most other sports , I look for value . The returns are small I average about 4% return on investment . You will only make money long term betting on value , i'm not talking about someone saying ive placed 100 bets and im up 20% - 100 is a tiny sample size .

    To sum up to make money you got to have discipline have a staking system , read stuff like the kelly criterion ( although i don;t follow that myself) , but most of all you got to be betting on value and no how to determine value , I determine value by measuring markets against Betfair and Asian bookmakers , if the price is above these i take it .

    Do you trade at all or just straight out value betting?


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