My Portfolio

Grecco · 04-06-2012 09:42PM

turbobaby are they on the TSXV as HRT PARTICIPACOES EM PETROLEO S (HRP.V) -TSXV

52wk Range $1.52 - $9.90 :eek:

Any idea of any news and when can it be expected.
Thanks

turbobaby · 05-06-2012 06:03AM

Hi Grecco,

Yes, they are GDRs on the Toronto Venture exchange under HRP.V

Share price drivers until the end of 2012 would be:

1. JV partner for Namibia to be announced (maybe July).

2. Details on the fracking planned for the first two tight wells in the Amazon.
3. News regarding the sale and or delivery of four rigs made in China
4. News regarding the sale of Amazon Air
5. Test results from 169 (gas) and 194 (gas and condensate)

6. Gas monetization announcement in December.

7. Chariot/Petrobras/BP drill result from Nimrod (5 billion barrel prospect!) in early July and will take less than 60 days. Biggest drill this year in the world!

8. HRT commence drilling offshore Namibia in December 2012.

9. Resource update from D&M which will add to HRT's Namibia prospective reserves. Already at 28bboe.

10. Drilling wells in the East Solimoes, at the Arua cluster.
11. Inclusion in BOVESPA index maybe in September.

HRT has:
$500m cash

55% of Solimoes (TNK paid $1b for 45%)
The largest acreage offshore Namibia (>28bboe P10 prospective resources).
Rig secured for 280 days in Namibia.

Own Air Amazon
3D seismics done.

Some of the world's best oil talent on their management team

Market cap is approx $800m.

It is outstanding value in my opinion!

Here's the latest conference call.

http://ir.hrt.com.br/hrt/web/arquivos/hrt_eng_23.05.12.mp3

bull_ring · 05-06-2012 12:22PM

is this thread limited to obscure energy companies or can you list mainstream companies ?

upforit101 · 05-06-2012 01:19PM

bull_ring wrote: »

is this thread limited to obscure energy companies or can you list mainstream companies ?

Detail what ever (listed) companies you want I'd say!

turbobaby · 05-06-2012 02:01PM

Obscure!

I suppose you could say they are obscure just because they have a foreign name, but by my reckoning they will have the largest drilling campaign in the world in 2013 in search of over 28 billion barrels of oil!

Fire away and talk about any companies you want. The more the merrier!

bull_ring · 05-06-2012 02:06PM

turbobaby wrote: »

Obscure!

I suppose you could say they are obscure just because they have a foreign name, but by my reckoning they will have the largest drilling campaign in the world in 2013 in search of over 28 billion barrels of oil!

Fire away and talk about any companies you want. The more the merrier!

i wouldnt want to depart from this threads eccentric spirit by turning the focus to recognisable stocks

Grecco · 05-06-2012 02:54PM

When everyone knows/ is raving about a stock then its passed its sell by date imo. Obscure is good when your buying into a stock

turbobaby · 07-06-2012 07:52AM

Not a lot to say other than my portfolio hitting a new low on Tuesday.

The balance hit -€18,500 which is about a 33k drop since the end of February with absolutely no margin employed! That is huge volatility and just goes to show how the junior explorers can make or break you.

Thankfully there was a little bounce yesterday. HRT finished up 11% on no news but it still needs a big rise to recover to my purchase price. Remember a 50% fall requires a 100% increase to get back to where you were.

Goldman Sachs increased their shareholding, and Repsol are about to farm in to Tower Resources Namibia block, joining the two other majors Petrobras and BP in Namibia.

I have heard noises that HRT's farm out will be complete before Chariot release results of their Nimrod drill in August, so that will reduce HRT's risk some more. As a reminder, CHAR are drilling a potential 5billion barrel of oil mega structure, of which 1.2b would be attributable to CHAR. The biggest drill of 2012. If they strike oil it will likely be the biggest rise on one day in AIM history. 500% is being talked about on the message boards! This would feed into HRT too, so an oil strike there would be grounds for a beer or two.

The other exciting share I hold is CMC Metals who are waiting on final approval from the State of California for the mill close to their gold mine. The deadline for public comments passed on June 4th so we should hear very soon about whether they get their permit or not. With a stockpile ready to processed and the mill almost complete, they will become a gold producer almost overnight. They also have bonanza grade silver in Canada.

HER released some pretty average drill results from a newly acquired mine but they were their first set of drills and it seems they were over a vast area to see where the deposits ended. I am patiently waiting the release of the feasibility report for their rich zinc-silver Patricia mine. Scheduled for late May, early June (20th May to 10th June by my calculations!).

The CEO of Malbex Resources has resigned. That has been a disastrous purchase, but it could be that it is being lined up for a takeover so I'm willing to wait and see what happens.

Here's the latest screenshot, €1,200 off the bottom.

Pa Dee · 07-06-2012 08:22AM

ixus wrote: »

liammur wrote: »

Got hit with char/rmp/lam/emg. What a dreadful run. Can't see much more downside, only problem is most of my capital is gone, and I used margin :mad:

Liammur, while I don't want to be seen as giving advice in this area, I would urge you to be extremely careful in this situation. Do not put yourself at risk with respect to margin trades. This sort of thing can go very wrong, very quickly. You see it reported all the time how people lose their homes on this sort of thing.

To everyone, this thread is a classic example of poor risk management. We have clearly entered a bear market and volatile stocks will suffer because of this. Oil itself has taken a massive hit. Would you not think this would be reflected in the share price? Iran/QE3 is what you're holding out for here.

The market was so bullish at the start of the year because of the LTRO's but this has dissipated very quickly. The junkie needs bigger fixes and more often. With out QE3 or some form of intervention the market will stay bearish with your typical bear market rallies. Even core Europe is close to a recession.

Turbo, you seem to understand what is going on in the economy/globally as you reference it regularly but then say you're still bullish on XYZ. This is classic cognitive dissonance. You should go back and read your posts.

Safe trading.

Edit: You could almost put this thread up there with the old BOI/AIB threads posters used to do battle on.

Your post rings more true. The thread is a study in bubble mania and the classic issue of being too greedy to take profits at peaks and too obstinate to take losses when the stocks start to drop

turbobaby · 07-06-2012 09:51AM

Pa Dee wrote: »

Your post rings more true. The thread is a study in bubble mania and the classic issue of being too greedy to take profits at peaks and too obstinate to take losses when the stocks start to drop

I appreciate the comments and your thoughts reflect what a lot of other posters have said to me on this thread. I have attempted to outline my reasons for not taking profits and trying to limit losses. In a one line summary, I have bought shares in commodity explorers and see no reason to sell prior to the drills conclusion.

I would rank myself at the bottom of the pile in terms of investment savviness, and therefore prefer the Buy and Hold strategy. The trouble with other bottom feeders is that they can't see their limitations, thinking they know more than the market and day trade.

I am happy with my average purchase prices. Could I have bought lower, sure I could, but it is impossible for me to call the bottom. Take HRT for example, I have a lower average price than both the largest institutional investors.

Pa Dee wrote: »

....too greedy to take profits at peaks

You do realise that peaks are only visible after the fact. There's no map, especially with these exploratory stocks which are ripe for share price manipulation and are highly volatile.

hmmm · 07-06-2012 09:12PM

Pa Dee wrote: »

The thread is a study in bubble mania and the classic issue of being too greedy to take profits at peaks and too obstinate to take losses when the stocks start to drop

I don't quite agree that it's anything to do with bubbles. It's a very good study in the difference between trading and investing. Turbo is a trader, he thinks he knows more than the market and is buying and selling accordingly - and like most traders, he is losing money (although if his bets pays off, he makes a considerable amount). An "Investor" doesn't have that confidence of thinking they know more than the market so tries to spread his risk, and doesn't risk all his capital but tries to make a modest return.

Grecco · 07-06-2012 10:24PM

Its easy to give advice and have opinions with hindsight.
Hindsight is like having 20 20 vision.
The reality is much different, Aim stocks are very risky especially oil exploration, if your strategy is to see out a drilling campaign then it is very easy to get locked into a stock for a long time, so having a portfolio in the red or black is meaningless really as these stocks will readily bounce up and down through profit/loss due to the direction of the wind on a Thursday. But if one of these companies hits the pay dirt then you get to see how this strategy works

turbobaby · 11-06-2012 01:17PM

Herencia released news this morning stating that they are looking into the possibility of a much cheaper open-pit mine at Patricia, which would be an excellent move if it is feasible. They also confirmed that the resource update will be announced before the end of the month.

So before the end of June it is likely I will hear the following:

Herencia resource update.
Two drilling results for HRT.
Confirmation of approval or denial of CMC Metals' mill permit.
The Fed's decision to implement QE3 or not.
Ireland's elimination from Euro 2012.

turbobaby · 15-06-2012 12:16PM

CMC Metals are on the cusp of gold production!

CMC Metals Ltd. (the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has received a Letter of Authorization from the Bishop California office of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) allowing the Company to proceed with the designated pre-construction work at the Bishop facilities while they complete their final review of the amended Plan of Operation.
This will assist in reducing the start-up time period by provide the ability to prepare the site prior to construction of the tailings impoundment. The two items that remain prior to start-up include the BLM completing an updated NEPA document and providing a Decision Document on the acceptance of the amended Plan of Operation.

To me, the wording suggests it is a foregone conclusion that the decision document will be an acceptance rather than a rejection. For this letter to be provided there must have been no public objections.

They are now working on having the mill ready to process the backlog of tonnage from their nearby goldmine.

Elsewhere....
HRT are very close to releasing their 194 drill results.
CHAR are about three weeks away from spud.
HER are two weeks away from updating the Patricia resource.
Ireland have been eliminated from Euro 2012!

On a micro level it's all coming together nicely.

In terms of the macro picture, every day as more bad news gets released we get closer to more QE in the US, UK and eventually from the ECB.

turbobaby · 16-06-2012 08:04AM

Last week Goldman Sachs increased their stake in HRT and yesterday they released a buy note for Chariot. Taken from iii.co.uk:

GoldmanSachs wrote:

We believe Chariot offers an inexpensive option on significant re-rating potential with a highly attractive balance of risk/reward, and in the event of success in the oil case would value the Nimrod prospect at c. £17/share on a fully de-risked basis. Farmout discussions continue on Chariot’s acreage positions, but we note that the company has sufficient funds for drilling post Nimrod. Overall, on a sector-relative basis, we believe Chariot offers a compelling investment opportunity and thus add the stock to the Conviction List. Catalyst We believe exploration success at the Nimrod prospect will be the biggest driver of a re-rating of the stock. However, in the interim, we believe unwinding of the applied market discount in the approach to drilling could also be a positive. Progress on another farmout on the company’s acreage would also be a positive, in our view.

£17 represents 21 times the current share price!

Namibia seems to be getting more publicity now. A story from Hard Assets Investor dot com about West African oil is here.

Namibia is an often overlooked country in Western Africa. Many casual observers are familiar with Nigeria and Angola, but only a few sophisticated investors are aware of Namibia’s vast potential. Namibia shares the same geological characteristics as its South American counterpart, Brazil. It’s no secret that Brazil made one of the largest offshore discoveries recently in the Santos basin off the coast of Rio. Offshore, Namibia shares the exact same DNA as the Santos basin (which has over 10 billion barrels of reserves) and many experts believe that a field similar to the one in Santos may lie beneath the country’s waters.
If this is accurate, Namibia may become West Africa’s most prolific oil producer.
In fact, a Brazilian company is currently active in Namibia’s offshore area and has purchased large tracts of exploration blocks. This company, HRT PARTICIPACOES, holds almost 90 percent of the country’s offshore exploration rights. It brings Brazil’s expertise in deep water exploration to this Western African country, which could create a powerful combination if large fields are discovered.
What’s more, Namibia is a politically stable and transparent country with very little of the violence that plagues other countries on the continent.

freeze4real · 20-06-2012 11:08PM

With ll due respect its a pleasure seeing someone like you sharing his experience trading.

But I have to say this your portfolio diversification is poor, rule of thumb is that your portfolio should have a correlation of -1 or close to-1 but yours is close to perfectly negatively correlated as majority of your portfolio at the moment having negative returns.

Although as this is an investment they could change, as when you started you were making some good returns.

would you re diversify your portfolio ?

Another thing I noticed is your risk to reward ratio, I;ve spoken to some traders to say that their risk reward is 1:2 and that their risk is just 2% of their capital balance, what's yours ?

bee_keeper · 21-06-2012 07:56PM

while i salute your bravery OP , i dont think your strategy is up to much , its a bit of a wing and a prayer approach to be frank

your spread far too thin in a narrow range of volatile sectors

here is my present portfolio

kerry = bought at 24 a year ago - 34 today

glanbia bought at 3.95 a year ago = 5.50 today

bank of ireland = a small amount last week = i bought at 9 and intend to sell at 12 c , its around 10 today or slightly below

tesco = bought at 325 p around six weeks ago = 307 today

mulberry = a luxury goods maker = bought in after the a big sell off last week , ive owned it before and made money , it went from 22 pound to 1550 , i bought at 1550 this day week and its up a small amount

richemont = swiss luxury goods = bought at 38 a year ago , 53 today , only have a small amount , got the tip from a poster named john who used to post here , wish id bought more

tot = french energy giant = bought at 34 euro ten days ago , its around 35 today , has a dividend of 6% and is nearly at a year low so its much cheaper than the american energy giants like exxon or chevron

france telecome = bought two months ago for 12 euro , its around the same today , its at a year low and has a bumper div of 14 % , telecoms tend to be stable

banco santander = my most risky buy and biggest loser to date , bought it for the 15% div but its fallen from $8 to 6

apple = bought at 585 a fortnight ago , if it goes back to its high of 645 , i may sell , its not that im not confident for the future of apple but i foresee a bear market , apple pays no div worth talking about and its not as if i got in cheap

deere = the tractor maker , a company i have huge hopes for due to the agri boom , bought it for around 80 several months ago but its at 76 today , not too bothered , plan to hold it long term , decent div of 2. 6%

glaxosmithkline = healthcare = bought it on the NYSE rather than london , cost me 42 , its at 47 today , i swapped it for pfizer as it has a better dividend and better earnings figures

EWG = a basket of the top shares on the german stock exchange , this is down about 10% since i bought it in april but it has major german companies like siemens and deutsch telecom , that said i might swap it for siemens when i collect the dividend in a week , siemens is almost at a year low and i want to avoid banks which are a bit plentifull in this ETF

BHP biliton = large australian mining company , i bought this in april when it was nearly at a year low for its solid earnings and decent div , im down from 72 dollars per share to 66 , the slowdown in china is hitting it so i plan to dump it if i get back to where i started , mining is too vulnerable to demand from china

my next share buy is JP morgan , the recent whale scanadal hit it but its got terrific EPS , its much closer to its year low than high , will buy on the next dip

my biggest regret this past year is not buying paddy power , its performance has been superior to apple

turbobaby · 23-06-2012 04:09PM

Thanks for your post Beekeeper.

bee_keeper wrote: »

while i salute your bravery OP , i dont think your strategy is up to much , its a bit of a wing and a prayer approach to be frank

your spread far too thin in a narrow range of volatile sectors

Maybe calling it a wing and a prayer is going a bit too far, but I agree that there are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the companies I have bought. I have not tried to hide that fact. My portfolio is almost exclusively in exploration companies. High risk, high reward stuff. I am under no illusions that it could end horribly. The number one goal of your portfolio seems to be capital preservation, mine is to make many multiples of my initial investment. I am a young and naive speculator! I have already stated in this thread that as my portfolio grows, my goals will shift more towards capital preservation.

You need to understand that others have more appetite for risk. This stage of my portfolio it is like buying a lottery ticket, however I have a lot going for me, with the companies I have picked.

If HRT or Chariot strike significant commercial oil in Brazil or Namibia the losses on my portfolio will be instantly wiped out, and the balance will double, treble,quadruple......

Petrobras produce 110,000 barrels of oil per day in the Solimoes basin, and have only one third the acreage of HRT. TNK-BP forked out $1 billion for 45% of HRT's Solimoes asset.

Petrobras, Repsol and BP have also given third party validation to the Namibian dream of mine. HRT will soon farm out some of their Namibian assets to a major there too.

The multi-millionaire CEO of HRT has practically his whole net worth invested in HRT. He came out of retirement to try to make HRT one of the biggest oil companies in the world. He has a world class management team with him to make the dream a reality.

Herencia just announced major upgrades to the resources at their Patricia mine. Malbex also announced fantastic drilling results this week.

bee_keeper wrote: »

my next share buy is JP morgan , the recent whale scanadal hit it but its got terrific EPS , its much closer to its year low than high , will buy on the next dip

Good luck with that!

Do you also plan to sell your JPM shares prior to higher interest rates coming to the US? You'll note the Fed didn't include this scenario in the stress tests.

bee_keeper · 23-06-2012 04:31PM

turbobaby wrote: »

Thanks for your post Beekeeper.

Maybe calling it a wing and a prayer is going a bit too far, but I agree that there are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the companies I have bought. I have not tried to hide that fact. My portfolio is almost exclusively in exploration companies. High risk, high reward stuff. I am under no illusions that it could end horribly. The number one goal of your portfolio seems to be capital preservation, mine is to make many multiples of my initial investment. I am a young and naive speculator! I have already stated in this thread that as my portfolio grows, my goals will shift more towards capital preservation.

You need to understand that others have more appetite for risk. This stage of my portfolio it is like buying a lottery ticket, however I have a lot going for me, with the companies I have picked.

If HRT or Chariot strike significant commercial oil in Brazil or Namibia the losses on my portfolio will be instantly wiped out, and the balance will double, treble,quadruple......

Petrobras produce 110,000 barrels of oil per day in the Solimoes basin, and have only one third the acreage of HRT. TNK-BP forked out $1 billion for 45% of HRT's Solimoes asset.

Petrobras, Repsol and BP have also given third party validation to the Namibian dream of mine. HRT will soon farm out some of their Namibian assets to a major there too.

The multi-millionaire CEO of HRT has practically his whole net worth invested in HRT. He came out of retirement to try to make HRT one of the biggest oil companies in the world. He has a world class management team with him to make the dream a reality.

Herencia just announced major upgrades to the resources at their Patricia mine. Malbex also announced fantastic drilling results this week.

Good luck with that!

Do you also plan to sell your JPM shares prior to higher interest rates coming to the US? You'll note the Fed didn't include this scenario in the stress tests.

the fed has not increased interest rates this past three years during a cyclical bull market , why would they raise interest rates if a rescession is round the corner , besides , the dollar is strong and getting stronger , they dont need to

your the last person who would want to see a rise in interest rates , high interest rates hit commodities hardest

i dont see my portfolio as all about capital preservation , all stock investments are risky , mine are no different , the difference between my portfolio and yours is that you have invested in a narrow range of volatile sectors with companies which have no established base , on a scale of one to ten in terms of risk , your a ten

cant see the logic in it , id head to cheltenham with my money before doing what you are , silver in particular looks awfull in the short to medium term

ps , ive changed my mind about JPM , its cheap but no financial is safe at the moment , im going with mc donalds instead

turbobaby · 23-06-2012 04:55PM

The success or failure of my speculations will be down to the performance of the exploration campaigns rather than the underlying asset prices.

Paradoxically I believe that rising interest rates in the US (not by Fed design but by lost confidence in the Dollar) might actually lead to booming share and commodity prices as cash flows out of T Bills and into 'stuff'!

You should lash up a portfolio on boards yourself as I am always keen to learm more about investments rather than my current speculation...

EDIT to add: if There was a horse in Cheltenham with odds against, trained by a team of the some of the beat trainers in the world, as well as having the chief trainer putting a massive bet on the win, PLUS being able to get on at a better price than that trainer, I certainly would have a few quid on it. Sadly, I'll just have to stick with HRT!

bee_keeper · 23-06-2012 07:07PM

turbobaby wrote: »

The success or failure of my speculations will be down to the performance of the exploration campaigns rather than the underlying asset prices.

Paradoxically I believe that rising interest rates in the US (not by Fed design but by lost confidence in the Dollar) might actually lead to booming share and commodity prices as cash flows out of T Bills and into 'stuff'!

You should lash up a portfolio on boards yourself as I am always keen to learm more about investments rather than my current speculation...

EDIT to add: if There was a horse in Cheltenham with odds against, trained by a team of the some of the beat trainers in the world, as well as having the chief trainer putting a massive bet on the win, PLUS being able to get on at a better price than that trainer, I certainly would have a few quid on it. Sadly, I'll just have to stick with HRT!

the dollar is likely to stay strong until europe is solved , prescious metals are not the ultimate safe haven, the dollar and u.s treasuries are

turbobaby · 25-06-2012 06:14AM

bee_keeper wrote: »

... are not the ultimate safe haven, the dollar and u.s treasuries are

I'd go as far to say they are safe as houses!

Roonbox · 26-06-2012 09:13PM

bee_keeper wrote: »

the dollar is likely to stay strong until europe is solved , prescious metals are not the ultimate safe haven, the dollar and u.s treasuries are

The dollar and U.S treasuries are far from being the ultimate safe haven, I would actually go as far as saying that at the moment, over the next three years, they are one of the riskiest investments out there..

Be careful

bee_keeper · 26-06-2012 09:40PM

Roonbox wrote: »

The dollar and U.S treasuries are far from being the ultimate safe haven, I would actually go as far as saying that at the moment, over the next three years, they are one of the riskiest investments out there..

Be careful

so what is a safe haven ?

The Pontiac · 26-06-2012 09:41PM

bee_keeper wrote: »

so what is a safe haven ?

No such thing anymore IMO.

Roonbox · 27-06-2012 04:57PM

bee_keeper wrote: »

so what is a safe haven ?

Depends on your time horizon, if you are investing in the meduim to long term them I would say precious metals... in the short term, (1 yr) stick it in the bank.

turbobaby · 28-06-2012 09:14PM

Currently on holidays so have not been able to post many updates lately but there's not a lot new to report on a company level anyway.

It looks as though the markets were battered again today but all my shares barring HER were up. Bizarre! Perhaps a decoupling at last? No chance!

Thargor · 28-06-2012 09:27PM

GKP is collapsing for no apparent reason and playing havoc with my PF

Not nice to see but it's always just been a case of waiting until the end since they found the Shaikan field. Thank God for USOP anyway.

turbobaby · 28-06-2012 09:53PM

I'll be honest that Idon't know alot about GKP but Somewhere in the back of my head Is trying to tell me that the oil there is very heavy. Could be totally wrong with that, but if that's the case the big drop in oil has to be playing a major part. Also, the political risk of Kurds and Iraqis coming to a long awaited agreement must turn an increasing amount of people off as there are more and more serious bargains out there with a lot less risk.

Given the coloured history of USOP I wouldn't be counting on it too much!

Thargor · 28-06-2012 10:13PM

Its definitely not the worst, production costs are some of the lowest around, on my phone so don't have exact figures but the oil is definitely regarded as good quality for the region and the quantities are vast and growing with every drill, currently valued at something stupid like 10 cents a barrel.

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