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Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012
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Thundery conditions look likely for the Midlands on monday.
LI -1 , -2 in place with a few Hundred J of Cape .
Some conversion around southern midlands should get things going too but near non existent Deep layer and low level shear would mean storms will not last long as the cells wont be able to separate between the updraft and down drafts.
Met Éireann are nicely commenting on the situation though.09 June 2012 19:23
Outlook
The early part of next week will be quite showery as northerly winds bring cool air down over the country. The morning time from Monday to Wednesday will be sunny and fairly dry. But the cloud will build up and heavy showers will break out from the early afternoon onwards with torrential thundery downpours occuring.
The showers will be less frequent during Wednesday and it will be the driest day of the first half of next week. Highest temperatures for these days will be around 16 or 17 degrees. Current indications suggest that next Thursday will be fairly dry but Friday will be wet.0 -
Thundery conditions look likely for the Midlands on monday.
LI -1 , -2 in place with a few Hundred J of Cape .
Some conversion around southern midlands should get things going too but near non existent Deep layer and low level shear would mean storms will not last long as the cells wont be able to separate between the updraft and down drafts.
Met Éireann are nicely commenting on the situation though.
Thanks for this Iancar, and also for explaining how you think it will play out.. learning lots thanks
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Tuesday esp still hopeful for potential development. Hi res models have a possible convergence zone developing in the midlands/east area during the afternoon helping to build up 'dem shower clouds. Worth keeping an eye on anyways.
From yr.no
Hmmmmm.... ill be halfway to Denver by the time any showers start popping up! ha :rolleyes:
now.... back to packing i go!0 -
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Some strikes over the north and also in the Midlands near Roscommon just now.
Be on the look out for FUnnels!... one officially touched down in Donegal at 11.30 !!
was driving through Roscommon town when that one was forming up. Really impressive looking set of clouds - it was so dark!0 -
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Today's funnel in Donegal was likely, given the elevated low-level CAPE and reduced low-level shear, as shown in the GFS analysis at 12Z. The "spout index" (coloured lines) is clearly a maximum in the far north.
It's a similar situation tomorrow, with a more widespread risk throughout the country, so keep an eye out around early afternoon as boundary layer turbulence is greatest. See the 24 hr GFS forecast below (HiRLAM is showing something similar).
With slack steering winds but a shortwave upper trough, enhanced low level moisture and strong solar heating in the southern half of the country, we should see a convergence zone form there in the afternoon, which will aid convection. The sounding for the area shows decent CAPE, but with poor shear, so short sharp pulse storms should occur, bringing downpours to some areas. Watch the satellite and radar from around lunchtime and we should see some action. Could be a lot of sferics on the maps by this time tomorrow, and a further risk of funnels.
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Sitting here in Terminal 2 with a nice cuppa and a croissant . What else to do than check the latest for some activity here!
Estofex going nicely today for some activity in around a good portion of the country today.
Some nice cape over the country.
http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_cape_eur15.png
DLS is good if not better than yesterday.
http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_icape_eur15.png
A Seriously good prospect for some funnels with the spout index being better again than yesterday!
http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_spout_eur15.png
Some decent hail could be possible to today especially on higher terrain.
Activity will die away towards sunset due to diurnal heating.
Eyes on the skies today folks... timelapses , photos , videos the whole lot! ha
If i was to go to chase somewhere today id porbably choose somewhere inland with some good height for a nice view. 0 -
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFqajIhDiZ8
... hopefully all hope isnt lost though! 
This discussion has been closed.
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