EU Fiscal Treaty Referendum - time to fill your boots?

Judgement Day · 19-04-2012 11:04am #1

Yawn, yawn I know but at least we can make some cash out of the impending referendum can't we? PP have the YES vote at 1/4 on, and given that the Yes campaign appears to be well ahead without resorting to the plague of locusts and rivers of blood arguments - yet - I think it's money in the bank. Stick on a few quid and encourage all your friends, neighbours, relatives to do likewise and, of course, vote early and often.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=600658

okidoki987 · 19-04-2012 11:22am

According to the Irish Times poll this morning:

30% said they would vote Yes
23% = No
8% = Wouldn't vote
&
23% Undecided

The undecided voters hold the key and it's not a 1/4 shot in my opinion.

Taking out Undecided and not bothering to vote, it's 58 Yes - 42 No.
Again that's not a 1/4 shot either.

The Lisbon Treaty many moons ago had a much bigger lead but failed to come in.
However the No vote has halved in the last 6 months but I wouldn't be getting stuck in at those odds, I think you'll get bigger closer to the date.

DB74 · 19-04-2012 11:23am

I would have thought the NO vote was shoo-in

We like to stick it to the government in the first vote just to keep them on their toes!

bren2002 · 19-04-2012 11:32am

DB74 wrote: »

I would have thought the NO vote was shoo-in

We like to stick it to the government in the first vote just to keep them on their toes!

This isn't the first referendum of this government. There was the judicial pay and Dail investigative referendums in 2011.

1 passed, 1 failed.

ft9 · 19-04-2012 11:34am

This is Jonjo's patch.

Judgement Day · 19-04-2012 11:44am

okidoki987 wrote: »

According to the Irish Times poll this morning:

30% said they would vote Yes
23% = No
8% = Wouldn't vote
&
23% Undecided

The undecided voters hold the key and it's not a 1/4 shot in my opinion.

Taking out Undecided and not bothering to vote, it's 58 Yes - 42 No.
Again that's not a 1/4 shot either.

The Lisbon Treaty many moons ago had a much bigger lead but failed to come in.
However the No vote has halved in the last 6 months but I wouldn't be getting stuck in at those odds, I think you'll get bigger closer to the date.

Agreed, but the Lisbon Treaty didn't matter a damn and this one could mean the difference in the ATMs working or not - if and when Ireland needs another bailout. This is not the type of vote to give the government a kicking on. I think when push comes to shove most people will be frightened into voting yes. It will be the first time in over 30 years that I have voted pro-EEC/EU on anything.

DB74 · 19-04-2012 12:25pm

bren2002 wrote: »

This isn't the first referendum of this government. There was the judicial pay and Dail investigative referendums in 2011.

1 passed, 1 failed.

I was referring more to EU-relevant referendums

And the judicial referendum was more about sticking it to the judges than anything else

I've taken the 7/2 with Ladbrokes for a NO vote

DB74 · 19-04-2012 12:42pm

YES vote now 1/3 with Paddy Powers with NO into 9/4

NO still 7/2 with Ladbrokes

okidoki987 · 19-04-2012 7:25pm

4/1 No with Lads, 7/2, 3/1 now 11/4

okidoki987 · 22-04-2012 8:08pm

9/4 now and may get shorter with Mandate advising their people to vote No.

JONJO THE MISER · 22-04-2012 8:47pm

ft9 wrote: »

This is Jonjo's patch.

Sorry guys have not been around the last few days, indeed i do think the yes is a shoe in, currently 4/9 at P.P, will go heavy on this.

okidoki987 · 23-04-2012 12:14am

On what basis ooc?

finbarrk · 25-04-2012 2:06am

Saw something in today's paper re the unions recommending a NO vote.

Judgement Day · 25-04-2012 11:32am

Yes is now 1/2 with PP but with all the contradictory propaganda now I'm not as confident as I was. However, I'm still having some more at that price.

DB74 · 09-05-2012 12:54pm

YES vote now 4/7 Paddy Power (1/2 with Ladbrokes)
NO vote now 6/4 Ladbrokes (5/4 Paddy)

Formation · 10-05-2012 1:00am

Im voting yes simply because I want the atms to keep flowimg until I go abroad to seek my fortune and with 60,000 mortgages in arrears and more on interest only payments we will need more money from europe sooner rather than later. The undecided, when they realise the short term repercussions, which is all most people are concerned about, will vote yes.
the yes campaign will scaremonger in the couple days before the vote in the national media, the no vote will congregrate in the garden of rememberance with colourful banners. Who do you think will have the biggest effect on michael and mary on the farm in leitrim?

4/7 is definately value.

DB74 · 14-05-2012 7:05pm

I think the Ayes have it (1/10 with Paddy, 1/5 with Laddie)

ft9 · 20-05-2012 10:58pm

I know nothing about this Treaty but every single person who mentioned it to me or brought it up in conversation has said they will be voting no.

No vote 11/2 Ladbrokes

Tarzann · 23-05-2012 6:37pm

I think that 11/2 is bet of the year.
Surely this is a 50-50 race at this stage?
Anyone know when the next poll will be out?

ha ha hello · 30-05-2012 12:00am

Currently 1/16 (:rolleyes:) for yes and 6/1 no with pp. Anyone think a yes result is really as certain as this? If it is, does anyone have any good guesses on how large the winning margin might be?

On paddypower it says over 24% winning margin is 6/1; does this mean they pay out if the result is over 62% yes?

the groutch · 30-05-2012 9:21am

unlikely to that big a margin, most undecided voters tend to either not vote, or vote NO.
and if the judge this morning rules in favour of Sinn Fein's legal challenge against the Referendum Commission, things could get very interesting.

JONJO THE MISER · 31-05-2012 3:15pm

Okay guys i can now announce my bet, i didnt want to post it before in case people betting on it and the price went in.
I have done the margin of the Yes victory at 16.01% -24% at 9/2 with P.P for 500 Eur.
I need 58% yes vote to win, which i think is in the bag, i put the yes vote at 58-59%.

Formation · 31-05-2012 3:36pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Okay guys i can now announce my bet, i didnt want to post it before in case people betting on it and the price went in.
I have done the margin of the Yes victory at 16.01% -24% at 9/2 with P.P for 500 Eur.
I need 58% yes vote to win, which i think is in the bag, i put the yes vote at 58-59%.

how did you arrive at 16.01%?

JONJO THE MISER · 31-05-2012 3:54pm

Formation wrote: »

how did you arrive at 16.01%?

That the betting 16.01% to 24% 9/2 now 4/1.
If its dead on 16% magin i loose.

ha ha hello · 31-05-2012 4:14pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

That the betting 16.01% to 24% 9/2 now 4/1.
If its dead on 16% magin i loose.

What bookies is that 4/1 with? Paddypower seem to have taken away that market

Judgement Day · 31-05-2012 4:18pm

After all my talk at the start of the thread I couldn't break the habit of a lifetime.

JONJO THE MISER · 31-05-2012 4:39pm

ha ha hello wrote: »

What bookies is that 4/1 with? Paddypower seem to have taken away that market

Yeah its with P.P, i got 9/2 earlier this morning.
Betting is gone think it said 16:00 was the cut off point.

Formation · 31-05-2012 5:26pm

Can you provide a screenshot of the bet?

jj92 · 31-05-2012 5:33pm

I looked at a few (very unscientific) online polls... boards.ie, breakingnews.ie, politocs.ie and all give it to the NO side about 55-60 v 30ish. that said and the expected low turnout + the rain, this morning I bet on a No win at 7/1 with PP.

Is it not strange that these online polls can be the polar opposite to the official ones? Anyway, it seemed like a good bet... almost a no brainer and I missed the larger odds.

DB74 · 31-05-2012 5:33pm

Formation wrote: »

Can you provide a screenshot of the bet?

The market was freely available for the last week or so

It was in increments of 8%

Boyles are still betting on it although their over/under is 10.5%

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/irish-eu-referendum/winning-margin

Joekers · 31-05-2012 5:40pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

After all my talk at the start of the thread I couldn't break the habit of a lifetime.

If you wanted "No EU Super State" why didnt ya just vote no instead of spoiling your vote ?

Judgement Day · 31-05-2012 5:51pm

Voting Yes or No 'seems' to result in the same thing i.e. the ordinary Joe Soap is going to be screwed so why would I vote for either option. I don't vote in this way lightly and I have always voted against everything to do with the EU or spoilt my vote. Been doing so for thirty+ years so I'm hardly going to stop now.

Joekers · 31-05-2012 7:07pm

Fair enough just seems that if ya hada voted no and it gets past then you would be closer to having the no eu super state rather than not voting

the groutch · 31-05-2012 10:21pm

you better hope it doesnt get passed by a single vote, or were coming after you with the torches & pitchforks.

Formation · 31-05-2012 10:27pm

Reports of less than a 50% turnout which should result in a close result, possibly less than 5% difference.

When is the result expected to be announced?

Formation · 31-05-2012 10:46pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Voting Yes or No 'seems' to result in the same thing i.e. the ordinary Joe Soap is going to be screwed so why would I vote for either option. I don't vote in this way lightly and I have always voted against everything to do with the EU or spoilt my vote. Been doing so for thirty+ years so I'm hardly going to stop now.

the funny thing is that you think you are making some sort of statement when you wasted the chance to vote for what you wanted. Most people won't bother pointing that out to you in person, the irish mentality, but anyone who actually voted will think you're a fool so you probably shouldn't add that after 30 years you still haven't seen the light.

Judgement Day · 31-05-2012 10:49pm

Formation wrote: »

the funny thing is that you think you are making some sort of statement when you wasted the chance to vote for what you wanted. Most people won't bother pointing that out to you in person, the irish mentality, but anyone who actually voted will think you're a fool so you probably shouldn't add that after 30 years you still haven't seen the light.

Could you try putting that into English?

PS I'm 53 and couldn't give a damn what anybody thinks - one of the few perks of growing old.

Tarzann · 31-05-2012 11:56pm

JONJO did you get the €500 bet placed online or in shop?
Ladbrokes have my online account restricted so I went into a shop 2 weeks ago to put €150 on under 52% turnout @ 21/20 and another €150 on NO at 11/2. Bet couldnt be approved right away in shop so had to wait 10 mins while woman got it approved from head office. I saw under 52% as close to a cert (Paddy had it at 50% then) so was pretty much getting a free bet on NO

maddragon · 01-06-2012 12:00am

Twitter exit poll on 513 respondents has 70% no, 27.3% yes and 2.7% spoilt.

Tarzann · 01-06-2012 12:06am

The problem with online polls is they have predominantly young responsers.

Formation · 01-06-2012 12:13am

Twitter users would be majority anti establishment anyway so i wouldnt put much stock in a small twitter poll however a small turnout favours the no vote.

At this stage i would guess yes won by ~5%.

I would say more than 50% of the country haven't a clue what the vote was about and thats the fault of our political parties.

at least the people on the no vote at 11/2 have a sweat now.

JONJO THE MISER · 01-06-2012 1:10am

There is reports of a secret poll that took place on Tuesday that puts the yes at close to 60%, lots of threads over on politics.ie saying F.G expect near 60% yes vote, hopefully hopefully.

JONJO THE MISER · 01-06-2012 1:12am

Tarzann wrote: »

JONJO did you get the €500 bet placed online or in shop?

In the shop, well 2 shops, 1 with 300 Eur and then went in again for 200 Eur, lets Just say im quietly confident going to bed tonight, must be up early to hear the results coming in live.

Formation · 01-06-2012 1:59am

Good luck jj.

DB74 · 01-06-2012 9:52am

Early tallies

Dublin North West (10% boxes open)

52% - NO
47% - YES

Dublin North

60% - NO
40% - YES

Waterford

45% - NO
55% - YES

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0601/fiscal-treaty-referendum-count-to-begin.html

This could be tighter than expected

Formation · 01-06-2012 11:11am

Those constituties are just about the only ones to vote no.

latest updates have the yes vote winning comfortably.

In fact 16%-24% winning margin is looking good jj.

DB74 · 01-06-2012 11:24am

Yes it certainly looks like being a resounding YES vote at this stage

Formation · 01-06-2012 12:03pm

Result is in, Yes won with 55% of the vote.

JONJO THE MISER · 01-06-2012 12:11pm

Formation wrote: »

Result is in, Yes won with 55% of the vote.

Where did you hear that?
By all accounts the margin is going to be from 57% to 60%.

DB74 · 01-06-2012 12:59pm

Here's the results as they come through together with a running % total

http://www.rte.ie/news/fiscal-treaty/

JONJO THE MISER · 01-06-2012 3:38pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRr2kf84V2M

EU Fiscal Treaty Referendum - time to fill your boots?

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