Summer 2012. What will it be like?

I'll be posting my summer outlook with the daily forecast on Friday. Just working on the data this week, my preliminary ideas from extending the spring forecast (issued on NW) suggested a fairly warm summer and I could mention that this colder turn in April-May was in the spring outlook, so unless the new data crunch reveals a different story, I may be coming in on the warmer side of average for the summer forecast. Not that this alone would create optimism, but you do have something to look forward to in that case, either a warm summer or making fun of MTC around the end of the summer.

Which would you rather have?

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'll be posting my summer outlook with the daily forecast on Friday. Just working on the data this week, my preliminary ideas from extending the spring forecast (issued on NW) suggested a fairly warm summer and I could mention that this colder turn in April-May was in the spring outlook, so unless the new data crunch reveals a different story, I may be coming in on the warmer side of average for the summer forecast. Not that this alone would create optimism, but you do have something to look forward to in that case, either a warm summer or making fun of MTC around the end of the summer.

Which would you rather have?

Ha! Welcome to my world..:P

Kenring wrote: »

My method is to look at equivalent lunar orbits. For many people the best summers in Ireland have been 1995, 2003 and 2006. Some equivalence to those will present itself next year. This year is an interim between last year's cold summer and next year's warm one. This year Ireland's temperatures may just be around normal, in contrast to exceptional warmth that some Central Europe countries may receive. It is next year that you can expect the hot summer. This one will probably be a slow start to a mild season, with what is considered summer temperatures not really arriving until the start of July and lasting for about two weeks into August, and maybe till the second week of September in the west. The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June, which will be the best time for holidays.
Warm days may occur during the last week in June, also around the end of July/beginning of Aug, coinciding with the full moon, as well as the first half of August. Your warmest temperatures should come in the second week in August but are unlikely to reach above 25C.
The amount of sunshine is likely to be below normal over the summer months, and only October may be a really sunny month.
As for best time for holidays, as I have said my choice would be the last ten days of June. Another dry spell for all may be the last week of July and the first week of August, when mostly fine days are anticipated despite odd passing showers. September has fairly short dry spells and the last dry interval may be during almost the whole second half of October. September rains at the start, middle and end bring chances of flooding for some counties.
Ken Ring

Just to point out to people the success rate of such forecasts are VERY low so I wouldn't be basing holiday plans on them

I have to say I agree with you there Ken. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Its only the weather (not the Fiscal Treaty)

I thought this Summer would be really warm but alarmed at how long this cold outbreak is taking to shift. Its movement seems to be blocked somewhat by events to the East and North.

Still I stink June will eventually turn out warm too. (we cant all be wrong) The first week might see some more cold temperatures but after that Summertime temperatures.

I fear now that July will be a step backwards though with cold weather and thundery rain and August will be too far away from today to even attempt to predict .Ok a stab at cool and windy. My website has an altogether different forecast coz Im not sure but based on really cold weather for the last 2 months we are definitely due for one of the next 2 to be warm.

Su Campu wrote: »

And I didn't say one wind blowing one way makes another blow the other way. I said a southerly flow will be balanced out by a northerly flow somewhere else. That is the basis of all weather. Depressions and high pressure systems pump warm air northwards and cold air southwards to try to balance out the temperature differential from the Equator to the Poles. Air flows northwards to the west of a high and southwards to the east, and vice versa with lows. It happens every day. (Of course it's the opposite in your hemisphere).

If we were to get your warm air moving northwards then we would expect a high sitting over France/Germany. I'm just trying to understand the mechanism through which you suggest the perigee causes such a setup.

My mechanism is described in the free book available from my website. With your knowledge of what causes weather, what is your prognosis for coming weeks and months?

Villain wrote: »

I was simply pointing out that people should take your forecast and others like it with a pinch of salt, but I can understand you not wanting to discuss your forecast as we've been over that here befire after I bought a yearly forecast from you and discussed the results

Villain, your efforts to involve me in an argument, so that the thread gets closed down, are simply not going to succeed. You are a rival meteorologist, and clearly know something about Irish weather, so please post your opinions and prognosis about the summer. That's what the thread is about.

Summer of 2012 -- reasonably warm with a variable pattern

This is MTC's summer forecast based on the ongoing research and a detailed numerical index method that is continuously upgraded from results of previous forecasts.

In general terms, this summer should be somewhat improved over what has become the standard fare since warm and dry summers such as 2003 and (the first half anyway) 2006. Some of the more recent summers have been widely described as poor to sub-average, although when you look at the numbers it might be fair to say that after 2007, a true shocker, the past four have fallen into the average camp. So I am concluding from my research evaluation that this summer might be somewhere between average and the standard for a warm and dry summer. It would not even surprise me greatly if the reviews place it among those better summers of the past, although the numbers look a little closer to average.

The spring started out warm and dry (and many would say in February) but the trends since early April have been towards cold and wet. This is because a large-scale blocking pattern developed, in part due to retrogression of a blocking high towards Greenland, which in turn trapped low pressure systems fairly frequently near France, England and the Biscay region. It gives me some confidence in my method and outlook to report that this development was predicted in the published spring forecast. Also, I plan to continue with the theme briefly mentioned there, for improvements into June and a much less gloomy pattern as this northern blocking should tend to evaporate while also, remnants of an eastward-moving trough component (which got added into the vile mixture) should also continue to migrate east and fill due mainly to seasonal height rises as it approaches the Baltic regions. These two developments will both assist a return to a more normal jet stream configuration but remnants of the pattern will probably lead to a somewhat chaotic flow pattern that sometimes develops strong semi-blocking highs fairly close to Ireland, and at other times degenerates into weak meandering lows. I don't foresee a return to a "raging Atlantic" although there may be a persistent storm track from south of Greenland towards the eastern Atlantic but this should often tend to weaken and split with components of formerly strong systems shunted around the growing European high.

As a result of all that, and considering the detailed numerical output from the research, I foresee June being about 1 degree above normal in temperature, July also 0.5 to 1 degree above normal, and August fairly close to normal with perhaps a late burst of warmth leading into a very warm September that could average 1-2 deg above normal. That does not imply that all days will be above average, but suggests that warmer days will outnumber cooler days by about a 2:1 ratio, perhaps dropping to a more equal mixture in early July.

The analogue years that are identified in the method tend to be clustered around this outcome but one or two are definite outliers -- I have had a look at possible reasons why, because we don't want to see an outlier provide the best analogue of the whole set. I am fairly confident that the cooler 5-10% of the analogue years would have that colder pattern explained by variables that do not enter this analogue set (in other words, the reason they got in has been damped out by reasons that won't apply to 2012).

To give some idea of what is considered in the forecast, there are about a hundred variables in the research model, each given a weight based on the theoretical framework, but probably about twenty of these are significant enough to influence the ouitcome noticeably (some of the variables have amplitudes of only 0.1 or 0.2 deg so whether they are in a warm or cold phase they can't really do much to the outcome unless 20-30 of them all pile on together -- this has been checked out). As many readers will know, my research interests are basically in the field of solar system magnetic field analysis, and how those patterns (which are essentially variations in structure of the solar wind) might predictably influence weather patterns. Like some other researchers, I have also studied aspects of the lunar orbital variables and incorporated that research, which is semi-independent of the rest of the external variables. In addition to all that, I keep a close eye on the field of tele-connections and global weather pattern analysis and research but find that the data sets are probably masked in the external variable data sets (in other words, those things are covered in this forecast methodology).

For those who like to view the climate set-up from that paradigm, I could mention that it appears likely that a strong dipole which has been pulsating across the pole at about the Greenwich-IDL (International date line) longitude couplet, should rotate slightly (to the east for each part) and that is the process referred to above as the filling in of the progressive part of the overlapping (prograde/retrograde) trough. Summer is often a time of year with reduced high-latitude blocking and a more simplified flow pattern, but with a long imprint of higher pressure west of the Azores, it seems likely that the rotation of troughs will therefore shorten the wave lengths. This is why I feel that the summer is about equally likely to turn out very warm and fine, or rather warm and slightly unsettled. Perhaps a compromise between these two as in say 2005 will be the type of summer on offer.

Briefly, I could mention also that the sea surface temperature regime this spring has reflected outflow of very cold waters from the after-effects of the frigid three weeks in Europe, but this signal is being diluted by mixing with the more normal if restrained North Atlantic Drift component. The net effect of sea surface temperature anomalies in my forecast scenario is therefore set at nearly equilibrium (in other words, no special effects).

Spells of notable if not extreme heat are likely to develop on two or three occasions, the index values are strongly suggesting around 7-12 June as being quite warm, then also late June into early July, and parts of late July. A longer and more anomalous warm period is likely from about 20 August on through September (and the autumn extension of this research suggests a very mild November to follow a more average October).

Rainfall may tend to drop back to if not below normal values in the patterns expected but this may be a rather variable regime where some places see drought developing and others have adequate or locally excess rainfalls. I would speculate that the inland southeast could see the higher rainfall amounts relative to normal as there will probably be enough of a rise in the jet stream to place the active frontal zone closer to 52-54 N at times. This may be a good summer for a very active thunderstorm outbreak at some point since we are looking for a weak southerly flow to develop in stages.

I also feel that the pattern is likely to bring above average sunshine but perhaps not by a huge margin. There will be some rather cloudy periods between the warm spells, as the flow reverts to weaker versions of the exceptionally dull set-up now in place.

Elsewhere, I am forecasting a hot summer in eastern and central North America and also warmer than average on the west coast, with the jet stream running generally across central Canada. This may become a very active tropical season but storms may tend to hug the east coast and not head into the Gulf stream, or, they may transition rapidly and dive southeast before the remnants get anywhere near Ireland, in most cases. Of course there are almost always one or two that do head in your direction. But I think one feature of the flow in general may be that it remains rather sluggish, even by summer standards which are not that robust in any case.

It is likely to be quite a hot summer in most of Europe although not so much in the Baltic regions. There may be some instances of severe heat as close as France and even southeast England but I'll stick my neck out and say that the seasonal high for Ireland will be 28 to 29 C, with a slight chance of cracking the 30-degree barrier. This is not a guarantee by any stretch, but this highest temperature is most likely around 20-25 July (from the numerical output) or perhaps in the early to mid June warm spell (expecting it might produce a close contender anyway). The later seasonal warmth is likely to be frequent excursions into the low 20s with somewhat more of a maritime origin.

After a few days I will be happy to discuss this forecast and answer a few questions, but please note, I have some plans for the weekend (here it's a holiday Monday forthcoming) and I may not be around much for a few days.

Things looking much improved next week with the GFS bring temps in the mid to high teens an soon as Sunday


Conditions improve and even warm up almost continually all the way out to t183



We have to wait a little longer for the ECM, around t120 or 144, but all in all an improving picture and the first taste of summer becoming a real possibility next week

Hi everyone,

Reading through M.T.'s absolutely fabulous forecast (both in its detail, its hoped accuracy and its matching what I want for summer 2012 , thank you so much M.T.!!) could any one with some level of expertise please explain the "Leaving Certificate" effect???

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Summer of 2012 -- reasonably warm with a variable pattern

Spells of notable if not extreme heat are likely to develop on two or three occasions, the index values are strongly suggesting around 7-12 June as being quite warm,

The Leaving Cert starts this year on the 6th June and many of the heavy exams will be done during the 7th and the 12th!!

Thankfully I don't have kids doing the LC or JC this year but it always appears that the weather seems to pick up during this time.

Just curious... particularly with MT's specific dates.

Tazio wrote: »

The odds are surely for a warm dry summer like2003?

Personally I'd love see MTs vote on this..

Thank you MT for your vote! :P


Have to say, after reading his forecast this morning, while I didn't understand some of the technical stuff (learning still about amateur meteorology) I'm going to take it that it'll be a bit better than the mucky summers in the last few years. ie a good June, August and dry September is what I'm reading. Could be like a re-run of the dry spell from August to October in 2007?


EDIT: I'm also liking a reference to a good sparks display.

Just a couple of responses to questions or comments earlier ...

(a) the reference to "somewhat warmer than average" is to 30-year average not the more recent five-year average. I think there is little difference there anyway in temperature, probably the average sunshine has been a bit below par recently and the rainfall also might not be that out of sync, but if it is wetter, I'm talking in reference to longer term averages when I mention them. Would estimate the "IMT" (Irish mean temp) that we use in the contest might run around 14-15 C in June, 15-16 in July and 15.5-16.5 in August. That would imply average daytime temps of about 19 in June, 20-21 in July and 21-22 in August. We'll see how that does.

(b) I have numerical output that could be applied to specific dates but I prefer to give a more general picture of trends. Even so, some of the forecasts sound too precise to some readers. I make the point that this is a report on the numerical output of the research model, timing errors could be expected and the smaller they are, the better the model is resolving actual trends. I've seen some successful cases of rather specific trend forecasts within months, for example last February when the middle to end of month was identified by the research as likely to be much milder than the start of the month (relative to normal, this may be a background trend anyway).

I could also make the point that once you get into predicting trends for months, you can vary the time scale to half-months, or to 30-day periods that are not calendar months. The overall trends of these different resolutions of the method would imply timing of warm and cool spells, since mathematically the 5-10 day warm spells are likely to follow the central third of the 30-day periods that run warmer than average especially in a moving average sort of approach.

My opinion is that these trend forecasts are improving for Europe as more researchers do different kinds of work and collaborate to some extent, and that we may be on a gradual upward path in this field -- but as I always say, my perception is that we have a distance to travel yet. My ballpark estimate is that my trend forecasts are improving on random and hitting about two-thirds of cases where random would be half in a mere coin toss of warm or cold (but sometimes the long-range trend has shifted away from that coin toss in a predictable way, so this reduces the skill implied by these estimates).

Anyway, predicting that the summer will be better than the past month is no great feat, it would pretty much have to be.