Summer 2012. What will it be like?

Deep Easterly

(Sorry mods if a Summer 2012 thread has been opened already but just could not find one. Delete this if necessary. )

After a run of summers' that can only be described somewhere in the range between non-descript to downright rubbish, it will be interesting to see how summer 2012 will turn out in Ireland. I personally am hoping for some solid heat this year - something which the last two summers seemed to lack - coupled of course, with plenty of thundery spells! .

I say bring it on.

Rougies

Warm, dry and sunny of course. The combined powers of positive thinking and boards.ie polls will make it so. Hopefully.

eskimocat

I like that positive thinking theory.....sure look what we have managed to do regarding stormy weather ooops lol

So I am wishcasting a glorious warrm, sunny, occasionally humid summer.... oh and I would like it in June, July and Aug please...lol

Tindie

I think UK a Due really Big heatwave, 2012 year could be the one! like the one in had in 2003! (Which I hated lol ) I think heat wave maybe in August or September.

July to August will be all the above!

mike65

One big tease.

patneve2

Warm and humid, with thundery spells from South and East

John mac

Warm dry and sunny..

although my monthly competition entries may not support my optimism:D:D

Birdnuts

I voted to reflect my view that it can't be as cool, cloudy and boring as last years effort:rolleyes::pac:;)

pauldry

think it will either be warm dry and sunny or cold dry and sunny but im more tending to lean towards the cold now.

still think it could be warm for one full month and the rest cold but it will be dry everywhere

Deep Easterly

Highest majority going for a warm and dry one so far, with a strong support for a mild, wetter one. Little support for anything colder at this stage.

dloob

I hope warm and dry with nice SW breezes for good windsurfing.

Joe Public

Here are two opinions

http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/forecasters_head_to_head_over_sunshine

Gonzo

if we get 10 days over the entire 3 month summer period where temperatures exceed 21C, I'll be happy, but this been Ireland I feel I may be asking for too much.

TURRICAN

I'd say max temps will be around 26 away from coastal areas.
Maximum amount of sunny warm days consecutively will be 3 or 4 max.
Mostly cloudy and overcast.
Warmest weather will be around September.

I know it's a fairly pessimistic view, but it's
What we're used to.
Really though it's reverse psychology for the weather gods;) shhhh!

4gun

After consultation with my oracle this summers weather will be warm and humid, with thundery showers, overcast but not dull
occasional individual weeks of good sunshine

I think the wind will be mainly from south and east

Tazio

The odds are surely for a warm dry summer like2003?

Personally I'd love see MTs vote on this..

clappyhappy

I am being very optimistic (think I will go mad otherwise), I am going on last year, very hot and warm April shịte summer, this April very wet and cold so good summer. Fingers, eyes and legs crossed.

K_1

Tazio wrote: »

The odds are surely for a warm dry summer like2003?

Personally I'd love see MTs vote on this..

The odds are never for a warm dry summer. Ever.

who_ru

K_1 wrote: »

The odds are never for a warm dry summer. Ever.

+ 1

Wine Goddess

who_ru wrote: »

+ 1

+1

Elmer Blooker

summer has arrived already over much of Europe :eek:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

smellslikeshoes

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

summer has arrived already over much of Europe :eek:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

That's just downright depressing

Joe Public

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

summer has arrived already over much of Europe :eek:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html[/QUOTE]


That's a warm spell in Spring just like we got in March except it's lasting a bit longer.:)

dexter647

Wow they really get the best of both worlds over there...Anyway hopefully it will be warm and sunny here this summer with of course plenty of thundertorms:D

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

There must be records tumbling especially in Germany? 30 degrees+

mike65

Don't look at the charts ahead it'll make you cry - a lot.

Birdnuts

mike65 wrote: »

Don't look at the charts ahead it'll make you cry - a lot.

Ominious emergence of the Greeny High for the start of May:(

slowburner

When the first of our recent run of bad summers started (4, 5, 6? I forget), I had been working outdoors for the four seasons, high up in the Wicklow mountains. This gave me a sort of intimate awareness of weather patterns.
One thing alarmed me that year, as late spring approached. It was the fact that the clouds all seemed to have that polar look to them. Big, white and clear cumulonimbus (?). Continuous invasions of them.
It seemed to me that they were the wrong clouds, in the wrong place, at the wrong time, and they were there all summer (when you could see the sky).
I well remember the ME presenter saying that the Jetstream was so far south that 'it was just not funny'.
That was the first year of our rotten summers and I saw the same pattern this spring, albeit a little earlier.
My heart is telling me the summer's going to be rotten - my head is saying that the fact that the polar clouds came a bit earlier could be a reason to be optimistic. But I doubt it.

TheMilkyPirate

I am dissapoint. If this was a "What's winter 2012 going to be like??" It would have about ten pages already. Do you all not like wall to wall sunshine bbqs drink and nudey women???

Birdnuts

baraca wrote: »

I am dissapoint. If this was a "What's winter 2012 going to be like??" It would have about ten pages already. Do you all not like wall to wall sunshine bbqs drink and nudey women???

I've never experienced such things in this country - even in a good summer:(. Thank god for places like Crete!!:D

TheMilkyPirate

Birdnuts wrote: »

I've never experienced such things in this country - even in a good summer:(. Thank god for places like Crete!!:D

Yeah i should have said "the possibility of...." :pac:

Kenring

My method is to look at equivalent lunar orbits. For many people the best summers in Ireland have been 1995, 2003 and 2006. Some equivalence to those will present itself next year. This year is an interim between last year's cold summer and next year's warm one. This year Ireland's temperatures may just be around normal, in contrast to exceptional warmth that some Central Europe countries may receive. It is next year that you can expect the hot summer. This one will probably be a slow start to a mild season, with what is considered summer temperatures not really arriving until the start of July and lasting for about two weeks into August, and maybe till the second week of September in the west. The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June, which will be the best time for holidays.
Warm days may occur during the last week in June, also around the end of July/beginning of Aug, coinciding with the full moon, as well as the first half of August. Your warmest temperatures should come in the second week in August but are unlikely to reach above 25C.
The amount of sunshine is likely to be below normal over the summer months, and only October may be a really sunny month.
As for best time for holidays, as I have said my choice would be the last ten days of June. Another dry spell for all may be the last week of July and the first week of August, when mostly fine days are anticipated despite odd passing showers. September has fairly short dry spells and the last dry interval may be during almost the whole second half of October. September rains at the start, middle and end bring chances of flooding for some counties.
Ken Ring

Deep Easterly

Something a little bit warmer maybe - or at least closer to average - for next week??
ECMF ens seem to be hinting at this for the last few days with mean 850 hPa temps rising by as much as 5.0c by next Tuesday. Let's hope so anyways, at least the rain showers will be warmer. 7.0c here in Co. Galway at the moment, a disgusting noon reading for mid-May no matter what way you look at it.

Kenring

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Something a little bit warmer maybe - or at least closer to average - for next week??
ECMF ens seem to be hinting at this for the last few days with mean 850 hPa temps rising by as much as 5.0c by next Tuesday. Let's hope so anyways, at least the rain showers will be warmer. 7.0c here in Co. Galway at the moment, a disgusting noon reading for mid-May no matter what way you look at it.

I would concur that the 21st-22nd following new moon in apogee have brief promise of slightly warmer temperatures, but northern declination on 23rd should dash those hopes. However the 10 days following 27 May should yield mostly dry conditions, before rain again on 11 June. Temperatures should climb quite dramatically in the second week in June.

M.T. Cranium

I'll be posting my summer outlook with the daily forecast on Friday. Just working on the data this week, my preliminary ideas from extending the spring forecast (issued on NW) suggested a fairly warm summer and I could mention that this colder turn in April-May was in the spring outlook, so unless the new data crunch reveals a different story, I may be coming in on the warmer side of average for the summer forecast. Not that this alone would create optimism, but you do have something to look forward to in that case, either a warm summer or making fun of MTC around the end of the summer.

Which would you rather have?

slowburner

Catch 22

Kenring

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'll be posting my summer outlook with the daily forecast on Friday. Just working on the data this week, my preliminary ideas from extending the spring forecast (issued on NW) suggested a fairly warm summer and I could mention that this colder turn in April-May was in the spring outlook, so unless the new data crunch reveals a different story, I may be coming in on the warmer side of average for the summer forecast. Not that this alone would create optimism, but you do have something to look forward to in that case, either a warm summer or making fun of MTC around the end of the summer.

Which would you rather have?

Ha! Welcome to my world..:P

Deep Easterly

Models still encouraging today for something a little more seasonal temp wise next week. Whether it will be a settled with it is another question but no matter, just as long as it warmer than now.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

My method is to look at equivalent lunar orbits. For many people the best summers in Ireland have been 1995, 2003 and 2006. Some equivalence to those will present itself next year. This year is an interim between last year's cold summer and next year's warm one. This year Ireland's temperatures may just be around normal, in contrast to exceptional warmth that some Central Europe countries may receive. It is next year that you can expect the hot summer. This one will probably be a slow start to a mild season, with what is considered summer temperatures not really arriving until the start of July and lasting for about two weeks into August, and maybe till the second week of September in the west. The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June, which will be the best time for holidays.
Warm days may occur during the last week in June, also around the end of July/beginning of Aug, coinciding with the full moon, as well as the first half of August. Your warmest temperatures should come in the second week in August but are unlikely to reach above 25C.
The amount of sunshine is likely to be below normal over the summer months, and only October may be a really sunny month.
As for best time for holidays, as I have said my choice would be the last ten days of June. Another dry spell for all may be the last week of July and the first week of August, when mostly fine days are anticipated despite odd passing showers. September has fairly short dry spells and the last dry interval may be during almost the whole second half of October. September rains at the start, middle and end bring chances of flooding for some counties.
Ken Ring

Just to point out to people the success rate of such forecasts are VERY low so I wouldn't be basing holiday plans on them

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Just to point out to people the success rate of such forecasts are VERY low so I wouldn't be basing holiday plans on them

I think this comment is inflammatory. Would it be fair to say that this thread is for viewpoints about summer, not viewpoints about other people's work?

pauldry

I have to say I agree with you there Ken. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Its only the weather (not the Fiscal Treaty)

I thought this Summer would be really warm but alarmed at how long this cold outbreak is taking to shift. Its movement seems to be blocked somewhat by events to the East and North.

Still I stink June will eventually turn out warm too. (we cant all be wrong) The first week might see some more cold temperatures but after that Summertime temperatures.

I fear now that July will be a step backwards though with cold weather and thundery rain and August will be too far away from today to even attempt to predict .Ok a stab at cool and windy. My website has an altogether different forecast coz Im not sure but based on really cold weather for the last 2 months we are definitely due for one of the next 2 to be warm.

Kenring

9-10 June look to be warm with that southern moon in perigee bringing warmer air northwards. In fact June looks pleasantly dry, with maybe less than a handful of rain days. The farmers will be able to let the animals out.

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

9-10 June look to be warm with that southern moon in perigee bringing warmer air northwards. In fact June looks pleasantly dry, with maybe less than a handful of rain days. The farmers will be able to let the animals out.

When you say it will bring warm air northwards, where do you mean? Where air moves northwards in one area, it moves southwards in another. So are you saying the warm air will move over Ireland, and hence colder air will flow southwards over central-eastern Europe?

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

When you say it will bring warm air northwards, where do you mean? Where air moves northwards in one area, it moves southwards in another. So are you saying the warm air will move over Ireland, and hence colder air will flow southwards over central-eastern Europe?

I didn't say that. I don't use the "will" word as freely as other forecasters. I prefer to talk about trends and potentials. Neither do I forecast for central-eastern Europe. All I'm pointing out is that the moon in southern declination, especially one in perigee, has the capacity to generate warmth, and as the moon treks northwards, so do air flows.
As to one wind going one way making the opposite going the other way like passing trams, I have not found that to hold true although it is an interesting concept. Is that the same as saying for one person to be happy there has to be another who is unhappy?

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

I didn't say that. I don't use the "will" word as freely as other forecasters. I prefer to talk about trends and potentials. Neither do I forecast for central-eastern Europe. All I'm pointing out is that the moon in southern declination, especially one in perigee, has the capacity to generate warmth, and as the moon treks northwards, so do air flows.
As to one wind going one way making the opposite going the other way like passing trams, I have not found that to hold true although it is an interesting concept. Is that the same as saying for one person to be happy there has to be another who is unhappy?

And I didn't say one wind blowing one way makes another blow the other way. I said a southerly flow will be balanced out by a northerly flow somewhere else. That is the basis of all weather. Depressions and high pressure systems pump warm air northwards and cold air southwards to try to balance out the temperature differential from the Equator to the Poles. Air flows northwards to the west of a high and southwards to the east, and vice versa with lows. It happens every day. (Of course it's the opposite in your hemisphere).

If we were to get your warm air moving northwards then we would expect a high sitting over France/Germany. I'm just trying to understand the mechanism through which you suggest the perigee causes such a setup.

Villain

Kenring wrote: »

I think this comment is inflammatory. Would it be fair to say that this thread is for viewpoints about summer, not viewpoints about other people's work?

I was simply pointing out that people should take your forecast and others like it with a pinch of salt, but I can understand you not wanting to discuss your forecast as we've been over that here befire after I bought a yearly forecast from you and discussed the results

Kenring

Su Campu wrote: »

And I didn't say one wind blowing one way makes another blow the other way. I said a southerly flow will be balanced out by a northerly flow somewhere else. That is the basis of all weather. Depressions and high pressure systems pump warm air northwards and cold air southwards to try to balance out the temperature differential from the Equator to the Poles. Air flows northwards to the west of a high and southwards to the east, and vice versa with lows. It happens every day. (Of course it's the opposite in your hemisphere).

If we were to get your warm air moving northwards then we would expect a high sitting over France/Germany. I'm just trying to understand the mechanism through which you suggest the perigee causes such a setup.

My mechanism is described in the free book available from my website. With your knowledge of what causes weather, what is your prognosis for coming weeks and months?

Joe Public

I hope this doesn't cause too much friction but this is what he said at the end of March.


Michael Gallaghers predicts . . . . . . .

When asked if the good weather is going to be continuing for the summer the Postman was quick with his response: “I think you can keep your money in your pocket on that one.
“Weather like this at this time of year is just not natural and that’s not a good sign. The temperatures have been soaring all through March and that’s a spark out of the ordinary run of things.
“I’m sorry to say it, but if it comes early, it goes quick. Its been dry the whole month of March and dont forget March is still winter”, he said.
Commenting on the signs he has seen in nature that have concerned him about what we have in store Michael said he has seen the sheep in the fields behaving very oddly and the fog lingering in the hills: “They are not good signs”.
Blasting the new generation of weather prediction, Michael called popular New Zealand forcaster Ken Ring, a “cowboy”.
“He is in The Star today predicting a long hot summer. It is far too far out to be making a call like that. I can tell you now it’s not looking promising for the summer”, he said.
Using weather patterns from years gone by Michael said both the 60’s and 70’s saw years where March and April were unseasonally hot and noted that in both decades a poor summer always followed.
Michael noted that while he wasn’t happy to be forecasting a poor summer, he had been right about forecasting that there wouldn’t be a white Christmas this year. “I’ve got Christmas right for the last three years and I know I’m right about this summer”, he said.

http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/forecasters_head_to_head_over_sunshine

Su Campu

Kenring wrote: »

My mechanism is described in the free book available from my website. With your knowledge of what causes weather, what is your prognosis for coming weeks and months?

I don't know what will happen in the coming months. With La Niña gone and cold sea-surface anomalies over the eastern Atlantic and warm over the west, my best guess would be that this summer will not be like the past two or three. I think we'll see a high over Biscay and France quite a bit, so I would imagine it will be close enough for us to be in a drier regime than those years. This probably starting to take effect around mid June, probably lasting into early July. Possible mixed interlude, then the high reforms after mid July.

Kenring

Joe Public wrote: »

I hope this doesn't cause too much friction but this is what he said at the end of March.


Michael Gallaghers predicts . . . . . . .

When asked if the good weather is going to be continuing for the summer the Postman was quick with his response: “I think you can keep your money in your pocket on that one.
“Weather like this at this time of year is just not natural and that’s not a good sign. The temperatures have been soaring all through March and that’s a spark out of the ordinary run of things.
“I’m sorry to say it, but if it comes early, it goes quick. Its been dry the whole month of March and dont forget March is still winter”, he said.
Commenting on the signs he has seen in nature that have concerned him about what we have in store Michael said he has seen the sheep in the fields behaving very oddly and the fog lingering in the hills: “They are not good signs”.
Blasting the new generation of weather prediction, Michael called popular New Zealand forcaster Ken Ring, a “cowboy”.
“He is in The Star today predicting a long hot summer. It is far too far out to be making a call like that. I can tell you now it’s not looking promising for the summer”, he said.
Using weather patterns from years gone by Michael said both the 60’s and 70’s saw years where March and April were unseasonally hot and noted that in both decades a poor summer always followed.
Michael noted that while he wasn’t happy to be forecasting a poor summer, he had been right about forecasting that there wouldn’t be a white Christmas this year. “I’ve got Christmas right for the last three years and I know I’m right about this summer”, he said.

http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/forecasters_head_to_head_over_sunshine

Well, that's a surprise to me. I've never said this will be a long hot summer! I'm consistent with what's in my almanac, and I've always said to expect a mild summer, slow in coming, and not going above normal summer temperatures. Next summer may be a completely different story. So I agree with Michael. It just shows you how the media print whatever they like, despite what you might actually say.

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

I was simply pointing out that people should take your forecast and others like it with a pinch of salt, but I can understand you not wanting to discuss your forecast as we've been over that here befire after I bought a yearly forecast from you and discussed the results

Villain, your efforts to involve me in an argument, so that the thread gets closed down, are simply not going to succeed. You are a rival meteorologist, and clearly know something about Irish weather, so please post your opinions and prognosis about the summer. That's what the thread is about.