Do you think the Chinese could take over the world if they wanted to?

Ellis Dee wrote: »

You are talking about NOW. Look ahead, 20, 50, 100 years. What's a century to an ancient culture like China? Besides, for all we know the Chinese may be working as we speak on a missile or some other weapon that could, in an instant, render nuclear-powered carriers just as obsolete as carrier-based air power made battleships - which had been the cat's pyjamas in naval warfare up to then - became when the Pearl Harbor attack took place.:)

Well I'd argue the point about battleships...IN any case it's highly unlikely the Chinese are working on such a weapon, though they may well be working on an IT based weapon that would screw with other weapon systems and economies. The Russians and the Israelis are rumoured to be and they're well ahead it seems.

Yes the Chinese are an ancient culture, with some serious innovations and sublime works of beauty in their history. However they're also the culture that damn near invented the word stagnation in between those periods of innovation. They have a two thousand year history of bursts of growth/innovation followed by looooong periods of stagnation, centralisation and rigid social structures. This is a culture whose long list of invention would shame any other culture, yet when the western nations made more contact in the 19th century they found a culture that was to all intents and purposes medieval.

Their biggest problem and one that seems to be left out of most commentators observations is a demographic one. Demographics get you every time*. This amazing economic growth of theirs has run in tandem with a big upswing in the population and availability of young workers. That spring is running out as we speak. By 2020 their stock of same will have halved. BY 2040 it will be worse again if they don't start getting jiggy now.:) Half of all primary schools in China closed in the last 5 years because there weren't enough new pupils. There are similar downward trends in university applications. Oh and this is countrywide, so the usual answer of "oh well they've a huge population in the countryside to make up the numbers" doesn't work. This will fcuk them badly. The ones left will see their value and their price will go up which will only add to it.

While China is growing its rate of growth has slowed(naturally. This always happens) and they may well have a very rocky road ahead. I remember the time when the "japanese are taking over the world!!" and... oh yea... People dig the headlines, but don't dig beneath them. I find it particularly interesting that Irish people buy into this Chinese miracle at face value. Especially given our own bubble. Then again try telling people 5 years ago this wasn't sustainable. I and others did, on this forum too IIRC and were derided.

I watched a programme on the BBC there last week about a Chinese village in the sticks that was transformed into a small city in a decade. Dunno if ye saw it, but it was interesting and had a few parallels with here in the boom. They built this city(on rock and roll..) and all looked shiny and new and all that. New shops and businesses all over the place. Then you looked at what these shops were actually selling. Building supplies. Tile shops, bathroom shops, sofa and furnishing shops etc. Businesses were noticably aimed at the same market. Landlords, property developers, builders. This new city had just one factory actually producing stuff. Not terribly sustainable. Sound familiar? 6 years ago you couldn't move in Dublin without falling into some new tile emporium or other selling italian marble columns to style blind suburbanites in their semi dees. Other than the gag inducing tackiness of it all the daftness was clear to be seen. That kinda thing is to be seen all over China. We ended up building ghost estates, they look to be building ghost cities. Yes they're different and those differences are large, however patterns tend to repeat in nature, so don't fall into the all too common mindset of "this time it's different, you know" and don't always believe the hype.





*demographics was a big driver in our own "boom". Watch Ireland have another upswing in 15-20 years on the back of another demographic wave.

Sindri wrote: »

In fairness Wibbs you could've said the same about America.

Not really S. Americas agricultural and industrial growth in the 19th century kept pace pretty closely with it's population growth. And it kept growing both internally and with all the immigrant populations feeding it. America was/is a very different model as an example of an emergent economy power.